Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Electoral Update - GOP End Times

There are worse scenarios for Republicans than just losing the 2008 presidential election, even if it's a big loss costing them more seats in Congress. There are mid-terms two years from now and another general in 2012. Bush's damage to the GOP brand will pale in comparison if John McCain's campaign becomes the party's Grim Reaper devastating its electoral prospects for years to come. 

Are we witnessing the end times for the GOP?

For the first time, many Americans are noticing the clear indications of racism (video) and seething hatred (more video) at Republican rallies. If we could look through the portals of time, we might see the mainstream media years from now giving credit to the many bloggers who took their video cameras to McCain/Palin rallies (more video). If only Lou Dobbs had done the same in 2000 and 2004. But who are we kiddin'?

As a result of McCain and Palin far too often tolerating dangerous cheers (more video) from within their own party, the further the Republican party distances itself  from the mainstream. The longer they refuse to disavow the extremists in their own ranks (or at least legitimately acknowledge the problem), the longer it will take for mainstream Republicans to reclaim their rightful seat at the table of American politics.

Each of the major parties has it's share of nuts to bear (more video). Let's just say it. Republicans all too often have allowed their wackos to guide, manage and control party politics. Wingnuts in the Republican party, represented by the likes of Neil Boortz, who blamed the Virginia Tech victims for their own deaths (audio) and other Fox News nuts (more video), have been feeding the caged beast for years. Now, the beast has broken free and is running amok at Republican rallies. Thanks to Youtube, we can all watch without fear of getting hurt.

Republicans need change they can believe in too. They won't find it anytime soon with leaders like John McCain and George Bush who have made a smoldering ruin of the Grand Old Party. Until new leadership emerges and rejects the lunatics who can be heard every day on the radio and television, they will continue to marginalize themselves out of major party politics.

Onto our projection...

Nobody is listening to John McCain. Not anymore. 

What little message he may have is falling upon deaf ears. The billowing cloud of dust you're seeing is the slow-motion implosion of McCain's campaign and the entire GOP along with it. His electoral numbers can hardly get worse while members of his own party daily acknowledge Republican doom. All the while, nobody is paying attention to John McCain.

McCain's campaign is in the basement and national numbers are still falling. In our 13th week, he is losing every battleground including eight states that George Bush won in 2000 or 2004 (NV, NM, CO, IA, OH, FL, VA, NH). The tight race in North Carolina (15) causes us to shift it into the tossup column beside Missouri (11),which is on the verge of turning blue for Obama. Aside from 26 tossups, Barack Obama currently leads John McCain 338-174.

All in all, 116 electoral votes have vanished from Republican presidential map in the last eight years/eight weeks. Even more dire for McCain is that things could get worse. Indiana, West Virginia, Montana, Georgia, North Dakota and Mississippi could also fall by the way side if McCain's free-fall continues. 

McCain's double-digit leads in several traditional Republican strongholds have fallen to single digits while Obama has just enough time to catch up.  Already this week, one poll from North Dakota shows Obama leading while Montana, West Virginia and Georgia aren't far behind. Indiana has remained close all year. 

It's difficult to determine any trends in these third tier states because they have been surveyed so infrequently. Pollsters who assumed John McCain might win these states by large margins may want to reconsider where they make their next phone calls.

Bill Clinton won 376 electoral votes in 1996 (+8.5% popular vote margin). Obama's electoral strength is reaching heights close to those numbers.  Real Clear Politics' national average gives Obama a 7.4% advantage today,  nearly equal to our latest electoral college projection.

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