Palin Gives Credit To God For Poll Movement

They believe God is on their side and for us...well, you know. 

While this is certainly no surprise, it still leaves me bug-eyed after hearing a sitting Governor, of all people, say this.  From the Washington Post:

"But it's at events like these and our rallies that we are so energized and inspired and we know that we are not alone. We feel your strength and we feel the power of prayer.  So many of you tell us that you are praying for us and praying for our country. And that's why we so appreciate you being here."

"Giving credit to a higher power for the day's poll ratings," the Alaska governor told the roughly 500-person audience that things might be changing. "We even saw today, thank the Lord," she said, looking upwards and raising her fist, "We saw some movement."

Later, the Post points out that Palin, "made a point of mentioning that she loved to visit the 'pro-America' areas of the country, of which North Carolina is one. No word on which states she views as unpatriotic."

Sorry New York, New Jersey, Delaware, California.  God is definitely not on your side. Colorado, Virginia - you're next! 

Maybe she's just preparing for her sketch on Saturday Night Live tomorrow?

September Job Report: 159,000 Jobs Lost

From the Washington Post this morning:

"Employers slashed payrolls by 159,000 in September, the most in more than five years, a worrisome sign that the economy is hurtling toward a deep recession."

"The 159,000 jobs lost in September were the most since March 2003, when the labor market was still struggling to get back on its feet after being knocked down by the 2001 recession.

Job losses were widespread last month.

Manufacturers cut 51,000 jobs, construction companies axed 35,000 jobs, retailers got rid of 40,000 positions, business services shed 27,000 and financial services slashed 17,000 positions, with securities and investment firms accounting for 8,000 of those reductions. Leisure and hospitality companies also reduced employment by 17,000. That overwhelmed employment gains by the government, in education, health and elsewhere."

Total jobs lost in 2008:  760,000.

Poll Perspective

As the stream of political polls turns into a veritable flood between now and election day, it's probably a good idea to take a deep breath and try to keep a little perspective on what these surveys are actually telling us.

Perhaps the most important thing to keep in mind is that, although national polls are extremely useful in giving us a good sense of how the race is going, we choose our President through the electoral college, not by direct popular vote. It's an obvious point, I know, but one that is often ignored by the chattering classes on network and cable television - and even by those in the print media.  The state-by-state polls are what really matter. 

Secondly, the margins of error (MOEs) in any poll - national or state - are very important. These MOEs are typically in the range of plus or minus 3 to 5 percentage points. Thus, real voter sentiment can vary as much as six to ten points from what the raw poll numbers indicate. So far, we've seen only few national polls in the presidential race which give one candidate or the other a lead outside the margin of error.  The Washington Post/ABC News poll, released today and discussed in detail in the blog below, is a notable exception. Obama's nine point lead is well beyond that survey's three point (plus or minus) margin of error.

Finally, it is helpful to remember how many real voters these national poll numbers represent. Assuming that the turn-out in this year's election is at least as high as four years ago, each percentage point equates to roughly 1.3 million voters. So, a nine point lead in a national survey, such as we see in today's Washington Post/ABC News poll, equals over eleven million voters. No small potatoes, that.

National Poll: Obama By 9

A new Washington Post/ABC News Poll released this morning shows Barack Obama surging past John McCain to a 52-43 point lead nationally.  McCain's convention bounce gave him a two point lead two weeks ago, but that lead has now been erased as voters fear a worsening economy and the ongoing catastrophe on Wall Street.  

Highlights from the poll. View full polling data (pdf)

Obama leads 52-39 on the economy

Independents prefer Obama by 21 points on issues related to the economy

9% rate the economy as "good" or "excellent"


14% of voters believe the nation is heading in the right direction  (ties record low in 1973)


60% are worried about their own family finances


43% of independent women view Palin favorably compared to 65% last month (-22%)


62% of Obama supporters are "very enthusiastic" compared to just 34% for John McCain who feel the same way about his candidacy.

Per Diem Per Taxpayers

With each passing day, we learn something new about Sarah Palin.  Here's more information probably not known to John McCain before deciding she was qualified to be President.  

Yesteday's news from the from the Washington Post exposed how Palin charged the state of Alaska for living expenses from her own home 312 times.  She claimed the charges were not unusual because her residence also happened to be the workplace duty station.  Here's one such example.

Also pointed out was that Palin spent $43,490 in taxpayer money to foot the bill for her family's travel expenses.

Today, we learn that Sarah Palin declined to release 1100 emails at the request of one of her fellow Alaskan Republicans.  Also, Sarah frequently used Yahoo mail for conducting the state's business (gov.sarah@yahoo.com) instead of the government's more secure email account.  No joke. 

At least Palin knows how to use the internets.  She'll have the upper hand on John McCain for sure [video].