National Polling Update: Static, Static, Static!

Now that the most condensed two weeks of Presidential campaign action have passed, I think it’s worth revisiting, briefly, the state of the race.

* Obama did get a bounce from his convention. However, it was obviously shortened and truncated by the Palin announcement on Friday and the GOP convention the following week, which made some uninformed “journalists” write nonsense stories.

* McCain did get a bounce, and a good one (there is an inherent advantage to having your convention last, as both 2000 and 2004 show). There’s no denying that, but…it has receded the last few days.

* In fact, as I have stated numerous times, that race seems…well, static. McCain’s national numbers have come back to earth and are basically were they were before Senator Obama picked Joe Biden. The Rasmussen and Gallup tracks are basically where they were at three weeks ago, and the new Diageo/Hotline and R2K/Kos tracks have the race reverting back to a four point Obama advantage, and the trendline in all four polls has shown a three or four point swing to Obama in the last few days.

* While it’s too soon to tell what the impending economic crisis will mean to the campaign, Obama has shown strength in poll samples the last couple nights. But most importantly, in the Hotline tracking poll, Obama has gone from a two point advantage on the issue of the economy last Friday to an eleven point advantage today. He also now enjoys a 57-33% lead on the question of which candidate “better understands people like you?” Also in the Hotline poll is the nugget that Obama has opened up a twelve point lead on energy, up from just four a few days ago.

* Palin’s favorable rating has collapsed: Last week, Hotline’s fav/unfav rating for her was a robust 48-24%, now it’s merely a 47-36%. Whereas the R2K/Kos poll has her rating down to 45-44%, a net swing of 13% since Friday.

* John Sidney McCain III’s has too: His ridiculous and discredited attacks have brought his favorability rating from 56-43% on Friday to today’s 49-45%. Whereas Obama’s has stayed stable from a 57-41% to 54-37%. John McCain’s strengths have always relied on his character and personal “integrity;” and once that is gone, he’s just another generic Republican candidate.

Since state polling often lags behind (mostly due to the low volume of it compared to national polls) it’s still hard to tell how they have been affected. But there is some anecdotal evidence (such as Virginia going back into a tie or a small Obama lead) that Obama has bounced back in many swing states. But let there be no question, the race is where it was, and where it’s always been. A tight race but one whose fundamental dynamics and state favors Barack Obama.

McBailout

President Bush reminds all of us once again why Republicans should not be trusted with the economy.  As if we needed more reasons. 

"Americans should be confident that the actions taken today will strengthen our ability to weather the housing correction and are critical to returning the economy to stronger sustained growth."

Return to stronger sustained growth? Correcting? Forgive me for being pessimistic of Bush's ability to return us to a stronger anything.  

He's right about one thing though. Americans should be confident. But we're not. Given the Bush-McCain track record of the last eight years, it's a little hard to trust so easily.  The consequences of deregulating the lending industry are developing before our eyes. 

Pardon the expression, but the chickens are coming home to roost.  More may be on the way. Many are afraid this is just the beginning. For now, we'll begin with a few handouts, fully funded by the American taxpayer. $100 billion for Fannie Mae and $100 billion for Freddie Mac.  That's only $200,000,000,000.  If you're jaw hasn't dropped yet, consider staring at the eleven zeros in that number.  Then, ponder the possibility of a few more banks going belly-up. What then?

Palin echos why we should trust Republicans all the sudden.

"The McCain-Palin administration will make them smaller and smarter and more effective for homeowners who need help."

And exactly how do they plan on accomplishing any of that?  Promises, promises.  Sound familiar?

Now, McCain wants to govern with the same economic philosophies. Bushonomics. Adding on to the billions in bailouts...84,000 jobs lost last month alone.  An exploding national debt. Stagnant wages. Declining value of the dollar. Rising food costs.  Unaffordable healthcare, and a fading hope of going to college.

I'll pass on another four years of Bushonomics.  

The days of driving a few hundred miles "home" to see dad and mom are gone.  Gas prices are too high.  Waitresses, bartenders, and bellman struggle to make ends meet, many of them still making $2.13 an hour plus $40-$50 a day in tips ($17,430 gross income). A family healthcare plan is out of the question considering the tax burden on the tips. Forget savings. And seniors living on a fixed income will struggle again this winter to cope with rising heating costs.

I'll pass.

While today's billions in big bailouts for banks is the headline, the single-mothers who struggle to work full time and raise thier children at the same time are the real stories.  How on earth can John McCain possibly perceive the economy as fundamentally strong.  That alone is enough to make me question his ability to make decisions for the working middle class.  He really doesn't get it.  He hasn't walked a day in my shoes.