Breaking News: Begich Wins Alaska Senate Race!

Anchorage Mayor, Democrat Mark Begich has won his race to unseat incumbent Republican, and convicted felon, Ted Stevens in the seemingly endless Alaska Senate contest. 

Nate Silver, of FiveThirtyEight.com, has concluded that Begich will be the winner of the Alaska contest when the few remaining votes are counted. 

As of this writing, Begich has stretched his lead over Stevens to 2,374 votes, with fewer than 15,000 ballots still to be counted. Most importantly, nearly all of the outstanding votes are from pro-Begich areas of the Last Frontier state.

We at ElectBlue concur with the awesomely brilliant analysis of Mr. Silver. We congratulate Senator-elect Begich on his victory. 

Well done, Mark!  (and Nate!)

Alaska Update: Begich By .001%

Mark Begich now leads by just three votes out of 250,035 total ballots counted after trailing by more than 3000 yesterday. And they are still counting. 

The total number of votes counted so far includes the 41,000 absentee ballots which were counted today. More ballots are expected to be counted over the next week.  Currently Begich leads 47.238% to Stevens'  47.237%.

If it takes this long in Alaska to get a first count, just imagine how long it might take for a recount. Maybe they're waiting on Christmas? Palin's in charge?

Our Work Is Never Finished

A few Senate races are hanging in the balance. At least one will be up in the air for weeks.

• FiveThirtyEight is reporting that Saxby Chambliss did not reach the 50% threshold needed to secure victory last night.  He will have to face Martin again in a December runoff. 

• Just 571 votes separated Norm Coleman and Al Franken when the votes were counted last night in Minnesota. A mandatory recount is underway.

• Ted Stevens is somehow leading Mark Begich up in Alaska. While all the votes haven't been counted, Stevens is leading by more than 3000 votes with 99% reporting.  He's probably headed for victory. Democrats and Republicans are likely to throw Stevens out in January which will require a special election to replace him. And guess which Alaskan Republican is likely to run for his seat?  Mrs. Palin of course! 
  
  Looking further down the road, Palin would then have two years under her belt to run against Obama in the 2012 general.  You can bet ElectBlue will be following this race very closely and supporting Begich against his Republican opponent, whoever s/he is.

We will continue to follow these races as they develop.  Please support Jim Martin, Mark Begich and Al Franken today.

Stevens Waiting For a Verdict

What could be the final chapter in the career of Senator Ted Stevens began this afternoon.

A jury began deliberating earlier whether to convict Stevens on seven felony counts related to going out of his way to disclose numerous gifts he received.  The last US Senator  to be convicted of a felony was in 1981 when Harrison Williams was found guilty of bribery and conspiracy. Only five sitting US Senators have been found guilty of felonies while in office.

Mark Begich, is poised to become the first Democratic Senator from Alaska since 1974. He has led by small margins in recent polls. The soon to be heard verdict is sure to have a profound impact on the outcome of the race.

Electoral Update - Making History In The Last Frontier

The fallout from the Ted Stevens scandal may be far greater than the loss of one senate seat.  A new Hays Research poll in Alaska now shows Democrat Barack Obama leading there by five points.

It's been a very long time since Alaska was considered a swing state. In fact, Alaska has only once, ever, gone Democratic since becoming a state in 1959.  Could Barack Obama become the first Democrat to win Alaska since Lyndon Johnson?

Even before the Stevens brouhaha, McCain was on thin ice.  Most polls throughout the summer showed the Arizona Senator with only a five or six point lead. Comparing those numbers to the 30 point victories for George Bush in 2000 and 2004 gives Alaskan Democrats plenty of reason to believe their state may finally turn blue.  

ALASKA RESULTS  (source:  Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections)

2000	Bush 58.6%	Gore 27.7%	Bush + 30.9%
2004	Bush 61.1%	Kerry 32.5%	Bush + 28.6%

We should also point out that Mark Begich has also made tremendous gains since Stevens, his opponent, was formally charged with seven felony counts of failing to disclose gifts received from an oil contractor.  The last time a Democrat captured a US Senate seat in Alaska was 1974.  Could Democrats be on the verge of making history in The Last Frontier?  More on that in next Thursday's Balance of Power Projection.

Besides Alaska, the race essentially remains unchanged. The slight electoral changes over the last two weeks represent subtle nuances in the methodology we use to assign a state. As our writer LibraryPolitico said just days ago, the race remains static.

A Rasmussen poll yesterday shows McCain leading by a single point in Colorado, well within the margin of error (5%).  This is the second poll in the last three weeks showing McCain with a small lead.  Obama and McCain have split the last four polls, which is why we've moved this state from leaning Obama to tossup.  My guess is that Colorado, along with Virginia and Ohio, will remain very close all the way to election day.

In case you needed one more reason...

For those few remaining voters in Alaska who haven't quite made up their minds about the upcoming US Senate race, here's a tidbit for you.  

On his way to the opening ceremonies of the Olympic Games in Beijing, George W. Bush made a brief stop over at Eielson Air Force base near Fairbanks. While there, he addressed a group of military personnel assigned to the base. In his short remarks, Mr. Bush found time to heap praise on incumbent Republican Senator Ted Stevens: "The United States military has had... no better friend and supporter than Ted Stevens", he effused. 

Mr. Stevens, who was in attendance at the event, must have been as surprised as everyone at such kudos from W. under the circumstances.  After all, the six-term Senator was indicted just last week on seven felony counts of making false statements about his finances. When questioned about Mr. Bush's comments, the White House issued a statement saying the remarks were "perfectly appropriate". 

Well alrighty then...  I guess if your approval ratings are as low as Bush's and Stevens', any company is good company.

The Democratic candidate for Mr. Stevens' seat, Mayor Mark Begich of Anchorage, must be delighted with his on-going good fortune.

Alaska-Senate: Stevens Sinks

As we noted last week, Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska was indicted on federal charges, particularly bad news for the Senator since he was already locked into a tough, uphill race against the popular Democratic mayor of Anchorage (which is Alaska's biggest city and represents 40% of Alaska's population), Mark Begich. Now new polling, taken after news of the indictments broke, shows the impact and it's all good news for Begich.

Rasmussen, which had it being a 50-41% advantage for Begich just prior to the indictments, has released a new poll having Begich's lead increasing to a 50-37% margin; but another poll has the margin expanding even more.

Beltway (and subscription only) newspaper Roll Call has a poll from the Ivan Moore Research Group having Begich's lead expanding from a 51-43% lead to a 56-35% lead since the last poll they conducted. Perhaps just as importantly, they have Senator Stevens holding a 59-19% lead (admittedly with a sample of only 219 Republican primary voters, which is a very small sample) over his nearest competitor in the August 26th Republican primary, so it appears Begich and Chuck Schumer are getting the best of both worlds: an indicted incumbent, but a party still willing to nominate them. Were Stevens to step aside the Alaska GOP would have until mid-September to choose a replacement on the November ballot but Stevens has a reputation for being ornery, so that is unlikely.

The Rasmussen poll as well as the Ivan Moore Research poll also continue having Obama within a five point margin of McCain in a state that John Kerry lost by 25 points. This news will only increase the confidence of Obama's team that they can pry Alaska from the Republican column.

A Bridge Too Far

Until this week Alaska's senior Senator, Ted Stevens, was probably best known as the sponsor of a $200+ million earmark for a bridge to a nearly uninhabited island in his home state. The longest-serving Republican in the US Senate had become almost a household name for his support of the infamous 'bridge to nowhere'. No longer.

On Tuesday, the 84-year old Republican was indicted by a Federal grand jury on seven felony counts of making false statements on his financial disclosure forms in the years 1999 through 2006. The charges could have hardly come at a worse time. Senator Stevens is in a very tough race for election to a seventh term. He is being challenged by Mark Begich, the Democratic mayor of Anchorage. Even before the news of Stevens' indictment broke, the latest Rasmussen poll (conducted last week) showed Begich leading Stevens by a margin of 50% to 41%. The charges of felony misconduct put Stevens' re-election chances at very near zero.

The pick-up of Stevens' seat in Alaska could bring the Democrats within striking distance of a filibuster-proof 60 seat majority in the next Senate. It's still a very tough climb, but Ted Stevens may have just provided the bridge to sixty seats for the Dems.