Udall Wins!

Tom Udall that is.  ElectBlue congratulates New Mexico's Tom Udall in his victory over US Rep. Steve Pearce. Udall and Pearce were competing for the seat left open by Republican Pete Domenici who retired in 2007.

Electoral Projection: Tightening the Vice

John McCain hasn't found the game changer he's been looking for. For McCain, game changers probably don't exist unless you count Sarah Palin. One could argue that she changed the course of McCain's campaign from the very beginning. McCain's sinking ship has been on the wrong course from the very moment he chose Palin as his running mate. When all is said and done, historians might look at the Palin pick as one of those rare moments when the veep pick actually did matter.

Over the last few weeks, we've witnessed very little change in polling. What small gains there may have been for John McCain have now evaporated (see dead cat bounce). Regular national polls and daily trackers are all now starting to come together for the first time. All of them have the race close to or at double digits. State polling continues to favor Obama as well. 

From our last projection, John McCain loses 14 electoral votes while Barack Obama's score remains unchanged. Polls in North Dakota and Indiana put the race at a dead heat. As a result, both states shift from leans McCain to tossup this week. Voters in North Dakota have been surveyed just three times in October. Obama has led in two of those polls while one other shows the race a tie. Polls back home in Indiana show a close race although Obama has led in three of the last four. 

Although we're not adding any states to Obama's total, he has strengthened his lead in these states:  New Mexico, Minnesota and Maine. As a result, these states move from leans Obama to solid Obama.  We now show Obama with a solid lead in all of the Kerry/Gore states (264 electoral votes).

McCain's sole route to 270 now runs through Pennsylvania. For him to win there, it will take even more than a game changer. Something along the lines of divine order may be McCain's only hope. The latest polls in the Keystone state show Obama gripping a double digit lead.

Electoral Update - Obama Catches Momentum

If your head hurts from analyzing so many polls over the past week, you're not alone. By our count there have been 99 polls released since last Friday.  American Research Group, in the last two days, has released 30 of their own including perhaps the only D.C. poll we'll ever see between now and election day (Obama 82 McCain 13). Why bother, right?

In nine weeks, we've noticed essentially no movement up or down for Obama, almost as if there's an unbreakable ceiling around the 268-273 mark. Blame Florida which has been leaning McCain since the beginning of August. Obama's also had a tough time gaining momentum in Ohio. With Ohio, Florida, and a handful of traditionally red states now leaning toward McCain, it's easy to see why the Arizona Senator has surged over the last few weeks.

Here's a look at the electoral movement over the past seven days. 

Obama 273 (+5)

• Gain:  New Mexico (5) where the last four polls show Obama with significant leads, two of which show a 7 point margin.

McCain 232 (-8)

• Gain:  Nevada (5) where he's led in every poll since the end of the Republican convention.
  
• Loss:  McCain loses Virginia (13) to tossup.

In recent days, national polling has revealed a significant shift back in favor of Barack Obama. This comes as no surprise given the this week's bad news on Wallstreet. However, the shift in state-to-state polling shows less movement. This may be because several of the state polls were conducted during or prior to the market meltdown. For example, the Big 10 Battleground Pennsylvania poll showing the race as tied, was conducted 9/14 - 9/17. It's not possible to know how many voters were sampled prior to the bad market news.

Last week, we asked three important questions, two of which were related to Palin's impact.

1.  Can John McCain sustain his current numbers?

At this point, it appears the answer is no.  And the reasons why are plenty.  The slipping economy, convention bounce falls back to earth, Palin's newness wearing off, regulation/deregulation flip-flops, and more McCain gaffes.  Is McCain in big trouble? As McCain does damage control over the weekend, he'll also try to regain momentum. But what strategies does he have left?  The negative ads he ran just days ago seem to have backfired, so that option may be off the table. Running on the issues will be tough given the Republican brand. Palin's shiny new appeal is wearing off, not to mention he can't let her speak for fear of her assuming she's at the top of the ticket! Don't be surprised if McCain tries to shift the focus to foreign policy and Iraq again.

2. Can Obama hang on to the Kerry states?

While there has been plenty of good news lately to rejoice about in the Obama camp, they have also noticed some slippage in places where losing would be disastrous.  Moderate leads in PA, MI, MN, and WI have slipped to razor thin margins (1-3 points) according to a couple of recent polls.  Two polls in PA show the race tied and one in MN reveals similar results. It will be interesting to see if state polling catches up to the latest round of national polls.

3.  Is there a page two of the Palin story?

The love affair is over, and Palin's favorable numbers have fallen like a rock. With each passing day, there's another news story about Palin.  And the news is not good [see more]. Page 3? Page 4? The number gurus at Fivethirtyeight.com answer this question thoroughly.

McCain's other problem is that Sarah Palin may no longer be an asset to the ticket; in fact, she may be a liability. Averaging the candidates' favorability scores across four recent polls -- as one should always try and do when looking at favorability numbers since they can vary greatly depending on question wording -- Palin now has the worst net scores among the four principals in the race:


Palin's average favorability score is now a +7 -- about 10 points behind Joe Biden's numbers. Perhaps more importantly, these numbers are 10-15 points behind where Palin's numbers were just a week or so ago. If voters come in not knowing very much about a candidate -- and the more they see of the candidate, the less they like of the candidate -- this is a major concern.

Battleground States

Several projection models around the country this week show large numbers of tossup states. Our model is based on an analysis of several polls as opposed to a knee-jerk reaction to just one or two. For example, we've decided to keep Minnesota in the Obama column for the moment because of national movement favoring him. Even more, McCain has never led in Minnesota. New Hampshire follows the same pattern where just two polls have been conducted since the close of the RNC. One recent poll shows McCain leading by three; however, that is his first lead in NH since May. If trends develop, we'll make adjustments.

What's happening in Pennyslvania?

Two polls in PA since last week show the race as dead even: Rasmussen and Big 10 Battleground. This flies in the face of recent national polling. This may be the result of both polls being conducted before the Wallstreet Crisis. Obama may need to call in Bill and Hillary to help bring "lunch bucket Democrats" into the fold. Biden, from PA, also plays a role in securing PA's 21 electoral votes.  We'll move PA to tossup if any other polling suggests the race as tied or McCain leading.

Rockin' Pollin' Ohio

Unless something breaks for one side or the other, we may just keep Ohio in the tossup column until our last projection. Both sides have reasons to be cautiously optimistic.  For McCain, there have been eight polls conducted in the last three days, six of which he's leading.  Obama is hoping for some traction after two consecutive polls show him leading here.  Neither candidate has been able to break the race wide open, and it's unlikely either will.  More polls have been conducted in Ohio than any other state since the party conventions ended (13 since September 9th).  Obama can claim the White House simply by winning Ohio and hanging on to the Kerry states.

Meet Virginia Tossup

All year long, polling has suggested a tight race in Virginia.  All the sudden, we have numbers all over the place. In the past week, the race has been shown to be anywhere from Obama leading by two to McCain leading by nine. Two polls show the race as tied.

Colorado & New Mexico (Obama's Backup)

The best news of the week for Obama may be that he's still protecting his lead in Colorado and expanding his lead in New Mexico. In Colorado, voters have been surveyed seven times since the close of the RNC, and Obama has led in five of those polls by an average of four points. He's also led in the last two consecutive polls, one by ten points. In New Mexico, Obama has led in three consecutive polls by seven or eight points.

45 Days...

We are at another turning point in the campaign where Obama has an opportunity to extend his lead. McCain's gaffes and flipflops could be catching up to him.  Palin's plunge isn't helping either. If national numbers continue to hold up for Obama, will the battlegrounds show equal movement? 

While it's clear there's been a momentum shift back in Obama's favor, one week is a lifetime in American politics.  The last time McCain needed a jolt to his campaign, he shocked everyone with Palin. If at some point, the campaign begins to slip away, he may just pull another fast one. 

Looking to next week, John McCain probably can't wait until the first debate, which will focus on foreign policy and national security. He's proven, thus far, to be a better speaker than many thought he'd be in the forums we've seen so far. The expectations won't be high for McCain so even a mediocre performance is sure to get high marks from his surrogates (Ditto Palin). 

Next Friday's debate between Obama and McCain, moderated by Jim Lehrer, begins at 9:00 pm EST and can be watched on most major networks.  Third party candidates will not be included as none have reached a 15% minimum polling requirement (in five polls) as mandated by the Commission on Presidential Debates.

Electoral Update - McCain Closes In

In our seventh Electoral Projection, John McCain continues to climb the electoral ladder, adding another 19 electoral votes to his total.  McCain, with 240 electoral votes, is closer now than ever to Obama (268).  There are now just three tossup states on the map. Nevada, New Mexico, and Ohio, all of which George Bush won in 2004, are too close to call.

Virginia (13) continues to be a key battleground although there does appear to be a tiny shift toward John McCain. According to a recent CNN/Time poll, McCain is beating Obama by 9 points with Independent voters in Virginia.  It should also be noted that this same poll is the first to show either candidate with a lead outside of the margin of error (50-46) since May. Three consecutive polls now put McCain ahead in Virginia, thereby shifting its status from tossup to leaning McCain.

McCain Picks Up Montana, North Dakota & Alaska

The addition of Sarah Palin has without a doubt electrified the Republican base.  Montana (3), previous to Palin, was thought by many to be in play.  One July poll showed Obama leading and another had both candidates tied. The newest polling by Rasmussen now shows an 11 point lead for McCain. 

The story is the same in North Dakota (3) where the race was competitive prior to Palin's entrance. Rasmussen's latest poll now show's a 14 point lead for McCain. Women, who previously favored Obama by 9 points now favor John McCain by 11. Independents have also shifted toward McCain.  It's safe to assume that Alaska (3) be a lock for McCain too.

Obama Picks Up Colorado, loses New Mexico

Barack Obama shows a net gain of four electoral votes this week.  New Mexico polling before the close of the Republican convention consistently favored Barack Obama.  A new poll now suggests McCain leading by just two points, well within the poll's +/- 4% margin of error.  New Mexico shifts from Obama to tossup.

Obama's lead in Colorado (9) mirrors that of John McCain's in Virginia. Polling in both states shows both candidates leading in three consecutive polls, albeit by small margins. Although McCain has undoubtedly benefited from a convention bounce in most states, there doesn't appear to be one in Colorado. The most recent polling in Colorado, by Insider Advantage, suggests that Obama still leads among Independent voters. The same poll also shows Obama leading McCain with women and men by the same margin, 49-46.  Obama also does well with Hispanics according to a recent PPP poll (58-34).  Colorado moves from tossup to Obama.

Pollsters have been busy in Michigan (17) lately.  Five polls have been conducted since the close of the Republican convention, and three of the five show the race as a statistical dead heat. McCain leads in the most recent Insider Advantage poll, his first lead here since May.

In seven weeks, McCain has added 65 electoral votes to his total. Barack Obama, who had 268 electoral votes in our first projection, has neither gained nor lost any ground. Most of McCain's surge can be attributed to his success in solidifying the Conservative base. This is especially true in traditional Republican strongholds where McCain's support was once soft (MT, ND, AK, IN). Now, with Palin on the ticket, the electoral map is shaking out to look more like what it did in 2000 and 2004. Colorado (Bush 2004 +5%) and Virginia (Bush 2004 +8%) the two exceptions so far. For Obama, he absolutely must hang on to the Kerry states. He then must find a way to capture 17 electoral votes from states where Bush won in 2004*.  Obama appears to have a solid lead in IA (7). Ten more?  Any combo of CO (9), NM (5), and NV (5) would put him over the goal-line.  Florida (27) and/or Ohio (20) all by themselves get the job done too.  This is by no means the only scenario that Obama can win.  It is however the most likely scenario at this point in the race. [CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE]

* Kerry received 251 electoral votes (19 short).  However, Kerry would have received 252 had one elector from MN not voted for John Edwards (18 short of 270). If Obama wins the Kerry states plus 17 electoral votes from Bush states, both candidates tie 269-269. Obama is certain to win in the event of a tie as the state delegations in the U.S. House favor Democrats.  Read more here about 269-269 scenarios.

 

The big questions going forward are:

• Can John McCain sustain his current numbers?  Much has been heard of the WalMart moms who are suddenly excited about Palin.  But if history is any indication, veep choices rarely matter.  Will Palin change all that?  Yes, she has a compelling story, but will that be enough to really sway voters?
• Can Obama hang on to the Kerry states?  John McCain's hopes of winning this election ride almost entirely on Ohio and Florida.  Losing ground in either one could spell disaster for McCain.  For Obama, sustaining his leads in states where John Kerry won is absolutely necessary.  So far, Obama has protected these states, but Michigan is very close.  Wisconsin is not far behind.
  
• Is there a page two of the Palin story?  It's all or nothing with Sarah Palin.  And John McCain can't keep Sarah Palin from the press forever. What more will we learn about Palin as the days and weeks go on? It's likely that McCain has gained the maximum potential out of Palin alone. What goes up usually comes down, even in politics. How much down remains yet to be seen. 

Electoral Projection: Obama leads for now, but McCain's fiery pit could bring him down

With just 92 days left until November 4th, there's been little change to the electoral map.  From last week's projection, only one state has changed.   New Mexico has now moved from "tossup" to leaning for Barack Obama.

Last week, we projected McCain to be trailing Obama, 268-175, just shy of the 270 electoral votes needed to win.  Based on the latest polling information available to us, we are now projecting Barack Obama to be over the top, leading John McCain, 273-175 (90 tossups).

In New Mexico, McCain has led in only one poll since February, and Obama has led in the last four of five (see below).  Rasmussen, in the latest New Mexico poll, puts Obama up by six, and Obama leads McCain with "unaffiliated" voters by 5%.

As we mentioned in our last EP, nothing should be taken for granted.  John Kerry led in virtually every poll in July and early August.

Where's the beef?

Although Obama's electoral outlook is in good shape today, it appears national numbers are moving in John McCain's direction.  Whether or not these numbers hold remains yet to be seen. McCain's attack ads have made the difference, and Obama's strategy to remain totally silent doesn't appear to be working.

Picking up where Clinton left off, the McCain strategy is clear:  Lure Obama into the fiery pit of negative politics.  In his effort to remain above the fray, Obama has allowed McCain to chip away at the lead.  While Obama can't fall into the trap of going negative himself as a response, he also can't afford to be reluctant to throw a punch when he needs to.

Obama must also remember how he got here in the first place. Voters believed him, more than Clinton, to be a truer agent of change. So far, he's been the representative of new politics, and he absolutely must keep reminding us of the consequences of old-school, Bush politics. Those reminders (high gas prices, faltering economy, ballooning deficit, broken borer, etc.) just happen to be red blue meat for a lot of Americans.  Who's hungry?

The political bullseye for Obama is convincing Americans that Bush and McCain are one in the same.  He can hit his mark by hammering away with this message.  This election is Barack Obama's to lose, but he'll have to break the silence and become a better fighter if he wants to sustain his lead through November.

NEW MEXICO POLLING DATA

Rasmussen (7/24)	Obama 49%	McCain 43%	Obama +6%
Survey USA(6/19)	Obama 49%	McCain 46%	Obama +3%
Rasmussen(6/19)	Obama 47%	McCain 39%	Obama +8%
Survey USA (5/18)	Obama 44%	McCain 44%	Tie
Rasmussen (5/14)	Obama 50%	McCain 41%	Obama +9%

Source:  Dave Leip's Atlas of Presidential Elections