Nutmeg Joe Keeps His Big Committee Chairmanship

Ugh. 

So, I'm not at all happy about Senate Democrats deciding to let Joe Lieberman (I-CT) keep his Chairmanship of the important Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee. It seems to me that Jiltin' Joe deserved some meaningful punishment for his over-the-top negative comments about President-elect Obama during the political campaign just ended. Elections do - or should have - consequences as Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) famously said when the Democrats recaptured the Senate in 2006.

Even if we put aside his non-stop stumping for Republican Presidential candidate John McCain, Lieberman's nasty and untrue insinuations that Obama might be some sort of Marxist or that Obama wanted American troops to be defeated on the battlefield were outrageous. The Senator from the Nutmeg State needs to recant those assertions and apologize to the President-elect. It's not likely to happen of course, but it's what a decent man would do.

All that said, I'm trying to make the best I can of the Senate Democrats' decision today. As a practical matter, we Democrats do need Lieberman if we are to have any chance of getting to a sixty seat majority in the Senate. Given ElectBlue's unyielding focus on obtaining that 60-seat majority in the US Senate this year, it would be pretty inconsistent of us to trash totally the notion of allowing Joe to retain some of his privileges for voting with Democratic majority. Without him that magical (though largely symbolic) number just won't happen. In politics, symbolism does matter.

Additionally, it is the clear desire of President-elect Obama to mend fences with Lieberman and to move on from the harsh rhetoric of the campaign. Our new President-to-be deserves some slack now and then. He needs all the help we can reasonably give him for the tough times ahead. So I guess I shouldn't be feeling so nauseous about today's developments, re: Lieberman. Still, I do feel a bit sick to my stomach. Maybe more than a bit, to be honest.

In spite of being an unabashed progressive, I like to think of myself of being a 'Big Tent' kind of Democrat. You know, a guy who sees room in the Party for a range of views even on some very important issues. However, this Lieberman thing challenges my faith in the Big Tent idea. It's not the fact that he is so strongly for the Iraq war or that his anti-terrorism shtick borders on xenophobia or even that he brandishes his religion like a sword in the town square of public discourse. 

No, it's more than differences over policy positions that cause me such agita about Mr. Lieberman. You know, here it is: I just don't trust him. On some visceral, gut level I often find myself wondering just what Joe Lieberman's real priorities are. What does this man really stand for? Somewhere in his talk, in his loquacious pontifications there is something that makes me ask myself: "who does this man really represent?". It's that uncertainty that makes me always just a little queasy when I think about Jiltin' Joe. 

So, alright, I'll try to get over it. I sure as hell will feel much better about the Lieberman thing if we win all three still unresolved Senate races: Alaska, Minnesota and Georgia. Having Senators Begich, Franken and Martin on Capitol Hill next year would go a long way towards settling my uneasy stomach.

Tough Times for Tennessee Democrats

While President-elect Barack Obama was leading the Democratic Party to sweeping victories in most of the country on November 4th, the oldest political party on earth was suffering crushing defeats in the Volunteer State. Not only did PE Obama underperform Sen. John Kerry's anemic 2004 numbers in Tennessee, the Democratic challenger (Bob Tuke) for the US Senate seat held by Republican Lamar Alexander was utterly humiliated in one of the worst thrashings a serious Democratic candidate for state-wide office has ever endured in the land of Andrew Jackson.

Even more devastating to Democrats in TN, the Republicans seized control of both houses of the state legislature for the first time since Reconstruction. The defeats suffered by Democrats spanned the state, with stunning losses in all three of Tennessee's historic "grand divisions" (East, Middle and West). With redistricting looming after the 2010 census, GOP control of the legislature most likely portends even more future electoral losses for Tennessee Democrats.

As a dyed-in-the-wool, double-dipped, true-believing, yellow-dog Democrat, it is very painful for me to admit this, but the magnitude of the catastrophe which befell the Tennessee Democratic Party (TNDP) twelve days ago is nothing short of breathtaking. Much more hurtful is the realization that this need not have happened. Although Tennessee is deep in the Red Belt, Democrats can win in these states. TNDP officials' whining about Tennessee's strong Republican leanings and their gnashing of teeth about the steep demographic challenges we face won't cut it. 

Just look around at our neighboring states, every one of them as ruby-red as Tennessee. In KY, NC, VA, GA and even MS, Democrats ran credible state and local campaigns in 2008. Democratic candidates won US Senate and gubernatorial races in VA and NC, forced a run-off in the GA Senate contest and ran valiant state wide campaigns for the US Senate in KY and MS. Why couldn't Tennessee Democrats manage to do the same?

The sad, awful truth is that the TNDP has become the captive of an inept, corrupt, power-hungry network of good old boys determined to hold on to their idea of political relevance no matter what. Compounding their incompetence and greed, many of the leaders of the TNDP are in fact DINOs (Democrats In Name Only), fleeing in terror at any mention by the Republicans of hot-button issues like God, guns or gays. Many of these DINOs pay only lip-service to the national Democratic Party, it's leaders and its core beliefs. They've sold their souls to the Republican donors who largely fund their campaigns these days. A state political party that has lost its moral fiber is living on borrowed time.

On November 4th, time ran out and the "no matter what" happened.  The TNDP has been shown the door by the voters of Tennessee. As disheartening as election day was, this is no time for Tennessee Democrats to give up. Instead, it's time to start over. Tennessee Democrats should look at this electoral debacle as an opportunity for rebirth, re-commitment and a renewal of our moral courage. 

We can - and should - forgive the unhelpful, tepid endorsement of the Obama-Biden ticket by our sitting Democratic governor (Phil Bredesen) and a post-election cheap shot at progressive bloggers by the head of the TNDP (Gray Sasser). Even the TNDP's disgraceful persecution of a Democratic state senator (Rosalind Kurita), who dared defy the Party big-wigs, can be put behind us. Focusing on the sins of the past will not get us where we need to be. Let us just hope that they are lessons learned.

So, take heart. There are, indeed, some signs of hope. In the chaotic days since the election, it seems that all of the top officials of the TNDP have decided to resign in the near future. A good thing, that. Moreover, Tennessee Democrats are blessed with some leaders of real courage and conviction. US Representatives Jim Cooper and Steve Cohen come to mind. We also have two nationally prominent Democrats who can help lead their native state's party out of the wilderness: former Vice-President Al Gore and former US Representative Harold Ford, Jr., who now heads the Democratic Leadership Council. Both of these fine men can, and should, provide much-needed guidance to a state party that has lost its way -- and nearly everything else. 

With a new leadership team at the helm, a sincere outreach to all of the key Democratic constituencies (including progressive bloggers), a genuine effort to be inclusive and a complete break with the good old boy politics of the past, the TNDP can return to being the vibrant, competitive party it once was. Anything less, I fear, will only lead to decades more of disappointing Novembers for Tennessee Democrats. (See this related post.)

Check out these Tennessee Blogs for more on this topic:

PostPolitics

R. Neal

SeanBraisted

TinyCatPants

LeftWingCracker

SharonCobb

SouthernBeale

FreedomToSpeak

Newscoma

TennesseeGuerillaWomen

NashvilleScene

Two Not-So-Trivial Political Questions

Question #1: When was the last time Democrats won more than fifty percent of the votes cast for members of the US House of Representatives?  

Answer: November 4, 2008.

Question #2: When was the last time Republicans won more than fifty percent of the votes cast for members of the US House of Representatives?

Answer: November 5, 1946. 

Yes, you're reading that correctly. The Republican Party has not won a majority of votes cast in US House races in more than sixty years. 

So much for all the blather about America being a center-right country.

h/t: OpenLeft

Bush Recession Gets Much Worse In October

As reported by Bloomberg News, retail sales in the US declined 2.8% in October, the largest one-month drop on record. Even worse, the decline in consumer buying was broad-based, cutting across virtually all segments of the economy.  Coming on the heels of the September collapse of the financial industry and the sharp rise in the unemployment rate in October, today's bleak economic news leaves little doubt that the Bush Recession is very bad and getting worse by the minute.

The current Republican Administration's reckless spending, irresponsible tax cuts for super-wealthy individuals and big corporations and its gross lack of regulatory oversight have finally yielded the inevitable -- and totally predictable -- results. The American economy is in shambles and sinking ever closer to depression-level territory with each passing day. Very tough times lie ahead.

President-elect Obama will no doubt be facing an even more dire economic situation when he takes the oath of office in the third week January next year. There is no real hope that the lame-duck Congress and the lame-duck President can, or will, take the tough measures necessary to begin a recovery. With only a one-seat Democratic majority in the Senate (and that's counting Mr. Unreliable, Joe Lieberman) and a disengaged, unresponsive Republican President, nothing of any real substance is likely to be enacted into law before February or March of 2009. It is going to be a long, slow crawl back from the edge of the economic abyss.

As progressives, it is important that we keep the mainstream media honest in their reporting about how we got into this mess and who is responsible for it. The chattering classes will, I fear, be all too willing to parrot the right wing wackos' efforts to blame the Democrats and President-elect Obama. Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity have already started down that path. They will certainly soon be followed by other wingnuts. Many in the mainstream media will be sorely tempted to take the bait because it is easy (no work involved) and simplistic (requires no real understanding of the issues).  

We can't let that happen.

Dems, Dems Everywhere... and the Voters Do Approve!

CNN reports that, according to a just-conducted poll of voters, fifty-nine percent of the American electorate think that Democratic control of both houses of Congress and the White House is a good thing for the country. So much for the Republican attempt at fear-mongering about one-party control in the closing days of the election...

Speaking of not understanding the electorate, we have noticed the pathetic - but sustained - attempt by many on the Right, and some in the punditocracy, to characterize President-elect Obama's sweeping victory as confirmation that America is somehow still a "center-right country". These geniuses go on to promote the preposterous idea that increased Democratic majorities in the House and Senate are 'proof' of this delusional notion. 

This is what I call 'Animal Farm' political analysis. You know, analysis from some perverse parallel universe in which up is down, left is right, freedom is slavery and black is white. Those who promote such nonsense would, I think, have felt spiritually at home in the old Soviet Union.  They would be perfectly comfortable asking: what's truth got to do with our political propaganda? 

Last Tuesday, the American people voted - in lopsided numbers - for a man who had been portrayed by extremists in the Republican party as the most liberal, socialist, Marxist, redistributionist politician in our Republic's history. Now, these same wingnuts - and their allies in the chattering classes - want us to believe that Obama really ran as a centrist, or even as some sort of Reagan-lite conservative. Hooey. Barack Obama is a reasoned, thoughtful, center-left politician. He campaigned as such... and he won a decisive victory as such.  No amount of post-election revisionism can change those facts. 

US Supreme Court Overturns Effort by Ohio GOP to Block Voters

CNN reports:

"The [US Supreme Court] justices in an unsigned opinion Friday blocked a lower court order directing the Ohio Secretary of State -- a Democrat -- to update its voter registration database after information provided by some newly registered voters did not match up with Social Security and driver registration numbers.

The state Republican party had asked for enforcement of a temporary restraining order, but the justices ultimately denied that request."

Ohio Democrats had appealed the lower court ruling, fearing it would potentially disenfranchise tens of thousands of duly - but newly - registered voters in the Buckeye State.

Hooray for the Supreme Court!  (You won't read that here very often.)

The State of the Race and Dispelling Media Myths

With the Democratic National Convention set to kick off in Denver, polls are being released galore to provide a baseline before the most condensed and eventful two weeks in recent political history commences. One poll that caught my attention today was the Washington Post/ABC News poll that was conducted late last week, it provides many details on a host of questions and shows that much of the media narrative is non-sense.

Let’s first get down to the pure brass tacks of the poll, which I consider one of the more reputable ones out there, mainly because they’re more transparent about their methodology and release detailed information broken down by demographic.

Obama leads McCain 48-42% in a four way contest (With Nader and Barr) among likely voters, which is basically where the race has been, sans some minor ebbs in both directions, for months. Despite the much talked about negative (and allegedly, effective) attacks by John Sidney McCain III, Obama still sports a 62-34% favorable rating (McCain’s is a robust 59-37% as well). In comparison, at this point in 2004, John Kerry’s favorable rating was only in the +10% range and never did exceed a 55% favorable rating…while Obama, after a much more bruising primary, is flirting with 2:1 territory and one that is extraordinary stable.

Let’s talk about some other myths that this poll puts to rest:

Obama isn’t connecting on the economy

He leads McCain on the economy by a 50-39% margin.

McCain is killing Obama on the drilling issue!

Obama leads 49-42% on Energy issues.

Additionally, Obama is keeping McCain’s advantage among terrorism to a mere 52-38% margin, is tied with him with Iraq and taxes; and sports a double digit lead in social issues.

Here’s another myth:

Obama is underperforming the usual Democratic strength among whites, women, and Hispanics.

While John Kerry lost whites by a 41-58% margin (From 1992-2004, the Democratic nominee ranged from 39-42% of the white vote), Obama only trails McCain 49-43% among whites; and that’s with a decent amount of undecideds and at least a fraction of those will break for Obama. Obama leads among women 55-37% over performing John Kerry, Al Gore, and Bill Clinton’s margin among females, sometimes by significant margins.

Of course, married women are a real weakness for Obama, right? All those angry Hillary supporters will harm his candidacy fatally, no? He leads 48-44, a group that voted for Bush by 11 points four years ago.

Well then, naturally whites making less than 50K are a weakness for Obama? Well he leads by a 49-40% margin, where Kerry lost this group by 7 points.
As for Hispanics, he overperforms Kerry by a significant margin as well, leading 61-27% among the group that Kerry only got 57% with. A particular strong showing against a Southwestern Senator from a border state, who is a moderate on immigration.

Obama has even made significant strides among traditionally Republican voters. While George Bush won White Evangelicals by a 78-21% margin, Obama has cut the GOP advantage to a 65-27% margin; a near twenty point swing. He is also polling double what John Kerry did among self-described Republicans. While he still faces insurmountable deficits among those groups, in a close election those are significant number of votes gained.

While I know the storyline of working class white Americans and other groups that Obama underperformed with in the primary not supporting a black candidate is intriguing, it just isn’t based in the data.

While, it is still a tight race, it is a static one and one that still favors Senator Obama. This race has potential to be fluid soon though, with two conventions in the next ten days. But for now, the media coverage is fundamentally not honest. No wonder, since the media is in the tank for John Sidney McCain III. And why wouldn’t they be? He cooks BBQ for them at his retirement estate in Sedona, AZ.

But let’s be honest about the state of the race.

US Senate Projection - Democrats Expected To Gain Big

CLICK HERE FOR THE AUGUST 26TH US SENATE PROJECTION.  

A few weeks ago, we brought to you an analysis of a few key US Senate races. Today, we're introducing our first Balance of Power Projection for the 111th Senate. Between now and November 4th, we'll keep you informed of all the US Senate races and regularly update our projections based on our analysis of recent poll data.

There are 35 Senators up for reelection this year, and 23 of them are Republicans. Democrats are heavily favored to gain a minimum of four seats, and a few other close races could deliver one or two more.

The current balance of power in the 110th Senate stands at 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and 2 Independents. Democrats control congress because Sanders (I-VT) and Lieberman (I/D-CT) both caucus with Democrats. Assuming that Lieberman gets the boot in a few weeks, Democrats are sitting on 50 seats (including Sanders) going into November.

Our current projection has Democrats controlling the next Senate session with 55 seats (+5).  Republicans are projected to hold 42 seats, and three races remain in the tossup column.  Democrats have a lot of work to do if they expect to reach a filibuster proof majority (60 seats).  

AR - Pryor	AK- Begich +1	MN - Franken/Coleman	ID - Jim Risch	AL - Sessions
DE - Biden	CO- Udall +1	MS* - Musgrove/Wicker	KY - McConnell	GA - Chambliss
IA - Harkin	LA- Landrieu	OR - Merkley/Smith	ME - Collins	KS - Roberts
IL - Durbin			NC - Dole	MS* - Cochran
MA - Kerry			TN - Alexander	NE - Johanns
MI - Levin				OK - Inhoffe
MT - Baucus				SC - Graham
NH - Shaheen +1				TX - Cornyn
NJ - Lautenburg				WY* - Enzi
NM - Udall +1				WY* - Barrasso
RI - Reed
SD - Johnson
VA - Warner +1
WV - Rockefeller

* state has more than one US Senate Race in 2008

Close Observations - Merkley & Hagan

Rasmussen Reports, just two weeks ago, showed Gordon Smith and Jeff Merkley tied in Oregon. Now, Survey USA shows Republican, Gordon Smith, leading by 12. Of the last four polls, two have been within the margin of error and two have indicated a nine to twelve point lead. Too much inconsistency in the polls keeps this race in the tossup column. Suppert Jeff Merkley today in this close race.

We're rooting for Kay Hagan in North Carolina. After "Liddy" Dole's disgusting attempt to add Jesse Helms' name to an HIV/AIDS relief bill...that's right, Jesse Helms, the deceased NC Senator who frequently opposed AIDS research and attributed the cause of HIV to "deliberate, unnatural acts"..., we hope Hagan crushes Dole like a bug. 

Speaking of Senators who are getting crushed, here's a video of Ted Stevens getting a friendly smooch from Ms. Liddy.  

Although Hagan is giving Dole the fight of a lifetime, she'll need all the help she can get to take down almighty Dole. Six polls from July show Dole with a lead somewhere around 10%.  But if you're a Republican incumbent in North Carolina, you're expected to be leading by 20.  The word on the street is that Dole is skipping the convention.  Dole's sweatin' now.   Help Kay Hagan keep the heat on Elizabeth Dole.

On Friday:  An updated Electoral Projection.  Gains for John McCain?