Record Low: Bush's Job Approval Ratings

Gallup is showing a 25% job approval rating for President Bush, a personal best worst. Still, more than half of Republicans approve.

Note to Republicans: Minnesota Isn't Poachable

It seems that every couple years Republicans make a big play late for Minnesota. While the state is much different than the state that voted for the Democratic nominee in 1980, 1984, and 1988, despite anemic nationwide results in those years; the state still has a slight, but significant Democratic lean. George Bush made a big play for the state in both 2000 and 2004, but lost the state by 2 (he was aided by a Nader candidacy that drained 5% off of Gore's total) and 4 points respectively.

In 2006, when vulnerable Democratic Senator Mark Dayton announced his retirement, Republicans were drooling at what they thought would be an easy pickup with the allegedly up and coming Republican Congressman Mark Kennedy. However, the DSCC and Amy Klobuchar went on the air early and defined the race; and she won the race by 20 points and won all but eight of Minnesota's counties.

But going into 2008, Republicans held out hope for the Gopher State, and even decided to hold their convention and the Twin Cities. But as history has shown, Minnesota is quickly becoming a less expensive version of New Jersey for Republicans. As recently as Thursday, McCain’s advisors were citing Minnesota as one of the states they were hoping to poach since Michigan is no longer an option.

Polling has been all over the map in the state, but the heralded Star-Tribune poll (good rule of thumb: When polls are divergent, trust the pollster who polls the state in question with regularity) was released over the weekend showing both Barack Obama and Al Franken opening up significant leads of double digits for both candidates.

Obama leads McCain 55-37% (up from 45-45% early in September in this poll), and Franken has opened up a 43-34% lead (with the independent in the race polling at 18%), a 13 point swing from the last poll that had Brooklyn born Norm Coleman up by four points. Despite McCain vastly outspending Obama in the state, Obama has been able to open up the lead mainly on the back of economic concerns, whereas Franken’s lead in this poll is mainly attributed (by the proprietors of this poll) to attrition of the ad war currently going on in the state (the Minnesota Senate race is the nastiest and the most personal race in the country at the moment). One thing to watch in that Senate race is the number of the independent candidate, Dean Barkley, who is currently polling at 18% and is climbing. If that trend continues, who will he take votes from and if he collapses (as many independents do as election day approaches) who will his votes flow to?

While these poll numbers look good (though this poll has been accused as having a slight Democratic lean), don’t be complacent and help Barack Obama and Al Franken keep Minnesota blue.

North Carolina: Obama +2

For the first time this year, Barack Obama is leading John McCain in North Carolina. Polls previous to today's survey suggested the race as being dead even. 

Now, Rasmussen shows Obama taking a 49-47 lead in a state where George Bush won by more than 15% in 2004.  No Democrat has won North Carolina since Carter in 1976 , although Clinton lost the state by less than one point in 1992. 

View poll from Rasmussen.

There is a clear enthusiasm gap between those supporting Obama and those supporting McCain.

From the analysis:

"Eighty-one percent (81%) of Obama supporters are voting for their candidate with enthusiasm while 14% are voting primarily against McCain. Those figures have changed little over the past week.

Sixty-five percent (65%) of McCain voters are casting their votes with enthusiasm, up from 62% a week ago. Twenty-seven percent (27%) are voting primarily against Obama, down from 34%."

Rasmussen's analysis did not indicate whether or not the crisis on Wall Street had anything to do with Obama's surge; however, the poll was conducted on September 23rd, before McCain's announcement to suspend his campaign.

New Poll: GOP Takes the Hit on the Economy

Just when you may have started to wonder if half of your fellow citizens have been in a coma for the last eight years, a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll gives some hope that they haven't been. In a poll released this afternoon, the researchers found that twice as many Americans hold the Republicans responsible for the current economic mess than blame the Democrats. Well, duh.

Some 47% of those questioned believe the GOP is more responsible for the present (lousy) state of the economy, while 24% blame the Democrats. You gotta think those 24% have simply been off their meds too long.

These views already seem to be having an impact on the national, head-to-head poll numbers in the presidential race. The same poll gives Barack Obama a 51%-46% lead over Republican John McCain among registered voters.  It's a pity that so many voters have to be hit over the head with reality before they wake up, but such is the state of the body politic in America these days. Only forty-two days to go...