Our Work Is Never Finished

A few Senate races are hanging in the balance. At least one will be up in the air for weeks.

• FiveThirtyEight is reporting that Saxby Chambliss did not reach the 50% threshold needed to secure victory last night.  He will have to face Martin again in a December runoff. 

• Just 571 votes separated Norm Coleman and Al Franken when the votes were counted last night in Minnesota. A mandatory recount is underway.

• Ted Stevens is somehow leading Mark Begich up in Alaska. While all the votes haven't been counted, Stevens is leading by more than 3000 votes with 99% reporting.  He's probably headed for victory. Democrats and Republicans are likely to throw Stevens out in January which will require a special election to replace him. And guess which Alaskan Republican is likely to run for his seat?  Mrs. Palin of course! 
  
  Looking further down the road, Palin would then have two years under her belt to run against Obama in the 2012 general.  You can bet ElectBlue will be following this race very closely and supporting Begich against his Republican opponent, whoever s/he is.

We will continue to follow these races as they develop.  Please support Jim Martin, Mark Begich and Al Franken today.

Note to Republicans: Minnesota Isn't Poachable

It seems that every couple years Republicans make a big play late for Minnesota. While the state is much different than the state that voted for the Democratic nominee in 1980, 1984, and 1988, despite anemic nationwide results in those years; the state still has a slight, but significant Democratic lean. George Bush made a big play for the state in both 2000 and 2004, but lost the state by 2 (he was aided by a Nader candidacy that drained 5% off of Gore's total) and 4 points respectively.

In 2006, when vulnerable Democratic Senator Mark Dayton announced his retirement, Republicans were drooling at what they thought would be an easy pickup with the allegedly up and coming Republican Congressman Mark Kennedy. However, the DSCC and Amy Klobuchar went on the air early and defined the race; and she won the race by 20 points and won all but eight of Minnesota's counties.

But going into 2008, Republicans held out hope for the Gopher State, and even decided to hold their convention and the Twin Cities. But as history has shown, Minnesota is quickly becoming a less expensive version of New Jersey for Republicans. As recently as Thursday, McCain’s advisors were citing Minnesota as one of the states they were hoping to poach since Michigan is no longer an option.

Polling has been all over the map in the state, but the heralded Star-Tribune poll (good rule of thumb: When polls are divergent, trust the pollster who polls the state in question with regularity) was released over the weekend showing both Barack Obama and Al Franken opening up significant leads of double digits for both candidates.

Obama leads McCain 55-37% (up from 45-45% early in September in this poll), and Franken has opened up a 43-34% lead (with the independent in the race polling at 18%), a 13 point swing from the last poll that had Brooklyn born Norm Coleman up by four points. Despite McCain vastly outspending Obama in the state, Obama has been able to open up the lead mainly on the back of economic concerns, whereas Franken’s lead in this poll is mainly attributed (by the proprietors of this poll) to attrition of the ad war currently going on in the state (the Minnesota Senate race is the nastiest and the most personal race in the country at the moment). One thing to watch in that Senate race is the number of the independent candidate, Dean Barkley, who is currently polling at 18% and is climbing. If that trend continues, who will he take votes from and if he collapses (as many independents do as election day approaches) who will his votes flow to?

While these poll numbers look good (though this poll has been accused as having a slight Democratic lean), don’t be complacent and help Barack Obama and Al Franken keep Minnesota blue.

Fresh Off the Press: Quinnipiac Battleground Polls

Quinnipiac has just released polling data from four battleground states: Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin. The entire 26 page press release includes more analysis and internals and can be found on the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute's home page.

Some analysis from the poll.

"By 19 – 24 point margins, voters in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin say Democrat Barack Obama, not Republican John McCain, is the candidate of change, helping lift Sen. Obama into the lead in these battleground states, according to four simultaneous Quinnipiac University polls of likely voters in these battleground states, conducted in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com and released today."

COLORADO: Obama 49 – McCain 45

"Obama leads 55 – 40 percent among Colorado women likely voters, while men back McCain 49 – 42 percent. White voters back McCain 51 – 44 percent as Hispanic voters go with Obama 68 – 26 percent. Obama and McCain are tied 48 – 48 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old, while voters 35 to 54 back Obama 52 – 42 percent. Voters over 55 go 47 percent with McCain and 46 percent with Obama.

Obama will bring change, 46 percent of voters say, while 22 percent say McCain will bring change and 26 percent say neither candidate will bring change.

But by a 49 – 42 percent margin, voters would rather see Biden as President. Women pick Biden 52 – 37 percent while men go 46 percent to Palin and 45 percent Biden.

In the U.S. Senate race, U.S. Rep. Mark Udall, the Democrat, leads Republican Robert Schaffer 48 – 40 percent, compared to a 44 – 44 percent tie July 24."

MICHIGAN: Obama 48 - McCain 44

"Michigan women voters back Obama 52 – 40 percent, while men back McCain 49 – 44 percent. White voters back McCain 51 – 41 percent, as black voters support Obama 93 – 5 percent. The Democrat leads 51 – 48 percent among voters 18 to 34, and gets 47 percent of voters 35 to 54 to McCain’s 45 percent. Voters over 55 back Obama 49 – 41 percent.

Obama rather than McCain is the candidate of change, voters say 43 – 21 percent.
Palin’s selection is a good choice, voters say 58 – 32 percent, while these same voters say 51 – 30 percent that Biden is a good choice.

By a 47 – 42 percent margin, voters would rather see Biden as President. Women back Biden 50 – 38 percent while men go 47 percent for Palin and 45 percent for Biden.

The economy is the most important issue, 58 percent of Michigan voters say, and Obama understands it better, voters say 50 – 38 percent. McCain understands foreign policy better, voters say 64 – 26 percent.  

'Sen. Obama’s lead in Michigan is built upon two key changes since the last Quinnipiac University poll: He has consolidated the Democratic base to the same degree that Sen. McCain has coalesced the Republican vote, and his lead among those who see the economy as the most important issue has almost doubled, from 50 – 39 percent to 55 – 35 percent,' Brown said."

MINNESOTA: Obama 47 - McCain 45

"Obama leads McCain 49 – 43 percent with women, while men go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama. White voters go with McCain 48 – 44 percent. Voters 18 to 34 years go 51 – 43 percent for Obama. Voters 35 to 54 go 51 – 43 percent for McCain, with the Democrat up 50 – 40 percent among voters over 55.  

Obama rather than McCain is the candidate of change, voters say 43 – 24 percent.
Palin is a good choice, voters say 56 – 35 percent and Biden is a good choice, these voters say 52 – 31 percent. They would rather see Biden step up as President, voters say 50 – 41 percent, including women 49 – 39 percent and men 50 – 43 percent.

The economy is the biggest issue, 55 percent of voters say. Voters tie 45 – 45 percent on who better understands the economy, but say 66 – 24 percent that McCain understands foreign policy better.

In the Minnesota U.S. Senate race, Republican incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman tops Democrat Al Franken 49 – 42 percent, compared to 53 – 38 percent July 24.

'Sen. John McCain is within striking distance in Minnesota for two reasons: Republicans held their convention in the state and the selection of Gov. Sarah Palin brought a new wave of independent women to the GOP ticket, offsetting a big swing by independent men to Obama,' said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

'Al Franken now trails Sen. Norman Coleman by seven points, down from 15, mainly because Democratic support for Coleman has dropped eight points from 19 points in the last poll.'"

WISCONSIN: Obama 49 - McCain 42

Wisconsin women voters back Obama 53 – 37 percent while men back McCain 48 – 45 percent. Obama leads 55 – 38 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 47 – 44 percent among voters 35 to 54 years old and 49 – 43 percent among voters over 55.

Obama rather than McCain is the candidate of change, voters say 45 – 22 percent.

Palin is a good choice, voters say 57 – 33 percent and Biden is a good choice, voters say 47 – 33 percent. Voters prefer Biden as President 46 – 42 percent. Women prefer Biden 47 – 37 percent while men back Palin by a narrow 46 – 44 percent.

The economy is the biggest issue, 51 percent say, and Obama understands it better, voters say 47 – 40 percent. McCain understands foreign policy better, voters say 65 – 23 percent. 

New Polls: Obama Leading in FL, OH, PA

Those of us who follow polls on a daily basis are just now recovering from emotional shock after Monday's disastrous Gallup flop.  To help expedite our recovery, Quinnipiac has just released a group of new polls for a few key states.

Florida:  

Obama 46  McCain 44

Ohio:  

Obama 46 McCain 44

Pennsylvania:  

Obama 49  McCain 42

It's difficult to put stock into these numbers however.  Quinnipiac is calling McCain's latest numbers a surge despite Florida and Ohio netting him just 2% over last month.

"'The $64,000 question is whether Sen. John McCain's surge is a result of Sen. Obama's much-publicized Middle Eastern and European trip, or just a coincidence that it occurred while Sen. Obama was abroad,' said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute." 

"'While Obama was on tour, trying to show voters he could handle world affairs, voters were home trying to fill their gas tanks,' Brown added."

Obama was just three days into his foreign tour when Quinnipiac began polling (July 23).  The miniature gains by McCain in this latest round of polling are unlikely the result of a "surge" of sudden support.  Put your checkbook down Mr. Brown, I'll take the $64K in cash. 

CNN's Political Ticker producer, Alexander Mooney, couldn't resist the urge to present this story as some spectacular theatre.

"But in what could be a warning sign for Obama as voters begin to turn their attention to the general election race, Obama's lead appears to have dwindled, or barely remained steady, in all three states..."

Warning sign?  Nothing has changed.  Florida and Ohio have been close all summer.  There was virtually no lead for McCain to narrow in the first place.  As for Pennsylvania, a Strategic Vision (Republican) poll released just yesterday shows Obama leading by nine.  Mr. Mooney apparently didn't get the memo.

Last week, Quinnipiac also showed a 15% swing for John McCain in Minnesota, narrowing Obama's lead to just 2% in less than a month.  Quinnipiac's Minnesota number is so far distant from other polling groups (including their own data from the month before) that it's almost certain to be a statistical outlier.  See also Colorado.

There's no shortage of reporters who desperately want a horse race, and you'll be hard pressed to find a surge in anything these days unless you're looking for a growing number of miscalculated blunders by professional pollsters. 

Tomorrow:  Friday's Electoral Projection.