Update: Same-Day Early Voting Ban in Ohio

An update to our report last week regarding GOP lawmakers in Ohio and their attempt to end same-day registration in the state. From the AP:

The Republican-controlled Ohio Senate approved a bill Tuesday that eliminates a weeklong window during which people can register and vote on the same day.

The 19-to-11 vote came over the objections of Gov. Ted Strickland, elections chief Jennifer Brunner and other Democrats, who have said voter convenience is being removed without evidence that the window created problems.

Supporters of the bill have said same-day registration and voting invites fraud.
If passed by the House and signed into law, the bill would eliminate the window by changing the dates when absentee ballots will be made available to early voters.
State Senator Bill Seitz, a Cincinnati Republican who sponsored the bill, said it is impossible to know whether fraud occurred in November because Brunner blocked access to some of the identifying voter information needed to do cross-checks. About 13,000 people registered and voted on the same day.

Brunner spokesman Jeff Ortega said county boards of elections have always had access to the mismatch information, just not in the format that some might want.
The bill was hastily written and needlessly complicated, Ortega said.

The GOP-controlled House was to continue hearings on the bill Wednesday. 

Ohio Republicans Seek To End Early Voting

After losing an appeal to Democrats in the the Ohio Supreme Court back in September, Ohio Republicans will try once again try to block one-stop voting in future elections, this time by changing the law. The AP recently reported that Republican lawmakers in Ohio are doing all they can to quickly pass legislation that would end early voting procedures as we know them. Time is of the essence however as Republicans have only one month left of their majority stake in both the state's upper and lower legislative chambers.

While Republican officials were scrambling in Columbus last week, Ohio Secretary of State, Jenniffer Brunner, was focused on hosting an election summit where a few hundred election officials from around the country provided input as to how Ohio can improve in the future.  From the Cleveland Plain Dealer:

There was important conversation about provisional voting, registration problems, data bases, poll-worker training, early voting and the merits of touch-screen vs. optical-scan balloting. Not everyone agreed on everything, but one line of consensus did emerge:

Election practices are complex and interrelated, so beware of quick fixes. They tend to cause unexpected problems down the road.

This is the otherwise known as "unable to win by the rules, so let's change the rules" tactic in politics.  There's just one problem however...

Democratic Governor, Ted Strickland, is likely to veto the bill if passed.  Whewww.

Barack Obama won Ohio's 20 electoral votes this year, beating John McCain by more than 200,000 votes (+4%).

US Supreme Court Overturns Effort by Ohio GOP to Block Voters

CNN reports:

"The [US Supreme Court] justices in an unsigned opinion Friday blocked a lower court order directing the Ohio Secretary of State -- a Democrat -- to update its voter registration database after information provided by some newly registered voters did not match up with Social Security and driver registration numbers.

The state Republican party had asked for enforcement of a temporary restraining order, but the justices ultimately denied that request."

Ohio Democrats had appealed the lower court ruling, fearing it would potentially disenfranchise tens of thousands of duly - but newly - registered voters in the Buckeye State.

Hooray for the Supreme Court!  (You won't read that here very often.)

Knock Knock Ohio!

Barack Obama yesterday was out on the campaign trail, this time not making speeches in front of thousands of people, but knocking on doors in working-class Ohio neighborhoods. 

Shelly Kretz, a 38-year old Proctor & Gamble worker who lives around the corner, said that she had been on the fence, but that Obama made her a believer with his answers to her neighbors' questions.

"It's really awesome that he takes the time to talk to the middle class and answer questions," she said, adding that her brothers, who live in the neighborhood, were in the group and also were swayed by Obama's appearance.

Electoral Update - McCain 100% Negative 100% Desperate

Election Day can't come soon enough for Democrats, and Republicans are wishing they had more time. 

Despite the catastrophic downturn in the American economy, John McCain isn't talking about it. Instead, his campaign has turned nearly 100% negative. Barack Obama and Joe Biden on the other hand have kept their focus on the economy. Speaking at a rally in Chillicothe, Ohio just moments ago, Obama declared:

“This is not a time for ideology–- it’s a time for common sense and a politics of pragmatism…. I believe that we can steer ourselves out of this crisis because I believe in this country.” While Obama continues addressing the concerns of the nation, McCain keeps playing a guilt by association game of politics. 

One week ago we asked whether or not the slow motion collapse of John McCain's campaign would accelerate, slow down or stop. As you can tell from the electoral map, nothing has improved for John McCain. In fact, in this week's electoral projection Ohio shifts from tossup to leans Obama. Five of the last six polls show Obama leading in Ohio including the last three consecutive. With Ohio's 20 electoral votes now in the Obama column, he now leads John McCain 353 - 174. The  lone tossup state in this week's projection is Missouri.

The decision to leave North Carolina in the Obama column this week was a tough one. Some projections have put the Tar Heel state back into the tossup column because of a Survey USA poll released this week. CNN also shows the race as tied; however, three polls in the last week show Obama leading. Two of them have Obama leading by five or six points. We will move North Carolina to tossup status if other polls show McCain leading. If McCain is indeed bouncing back in North Carolina, the question to be answered is why.

Obama's Ceiling

Obama is approaching his electoral ceiling, which we put at 365  electoral votes (add Missouri plus one EC vote from Nebraska).  To get beyond the 365 mark, Obama will have to steal Indiana and Georgia, no easy task. If the rapid decline in McCain's national numbers extends into next week, Indiana very well could fall back into the tossup column too. McCain's double digit margins are gone in Georgia and they continue to fall. Some are already talking about an Obama upset in Georgia because of an expected surge in African-American voters. 

---

Nate Silver examines both candidate's favorable and unfavorable ratings since the Ayers attacks began. His analysis:

OBAMA

Pollster             Favorable      Unfavorable
Rasmussen     10/3     57              42
Rasmussen     10/8     56 (-1)         42 (n/c)

Pollster             Favorable      Unfavorable
Research 2K   10/3     59              32
Research 2K   10/8     57 (-2)         33 (+1)

Pollster             Favorable      Unfavorable
Hotline       10/3     58              36
Hotline       10/8     56 (-2)         39 (+3)

Pollster             Favorable     Unfavorable
Average       10/3     58.0            36.7
Average       10/8     56.3 (-1.7)     38.0 (+1.3)

MCCAIN

Pollster             Favorable   Unfavorable
Rasmussen     10/3     52          45
Rasmussen     10/8     52 (n/c)    46 (+1)

Pollster             Favorable   Unfavorable
Research 2K   10/3     41          45
Research 2K   10/8     44 (+3)     49 (+4)

Pollster             Favorable   Unfavorable
Hotline       10/3     53          40
Hotline       10/8     53 (n/c)    41 (+1)

Pollster             Favorable      Unfavorable
Average       10/3     48.7            43.3
Average       10/8     49.7 (+1.0)     45.3 (+2.0)

Obama's unfavorable number has ticked up a point or so, but so has McCain's. The strategy to preempt the Ayers attack by airing the Keating ads may have paid off. It's unlikely that John McCain will get anywhere without some kind of proof that Ayers or Rezko somehow influenced Obama's political career. While the attacks have rallied a few radicals (see video one and two) who hate Obama, McCain could alienate himself from moderates and independents with unsubstantiated claims.

The verdict is still out on McCain's strategy to go 100% negative. Without a smoking gun as it relates to Ayers, the best John McCain can hope for is to remain competitive in places like NC, OH, MO, and NV. A worse scenario is the one laid out above where he begins losing ground in Indiana and Georgia. It is worth mentioning that McCain gained five points in Indiana in the latest Rasmussen poll.

Virginia and Florida are McCain's nightmares right now. Obama has led in the last four consecutive polls in Virginia by an average of eight points. It's been 44 years since a Democrat carried Virginia. Florida is also becoming an increasing problem for McCain as Obama has now led in every poll this month including a Strategic Vision poll released yesterday which puts him ahead by eight.

Our next update will be on Tuesday when we will examine these questions.

1. Will McCain's negative campaign work or will it backfire? Virginia and Florida haven't budged. 

2. Will polling in North Carolina show a trend back toward John McCain?

3. How long will the negative campaign go on? Will members of his own party begin calling him out for crossing the line?

Dangerous Campaign

There's a difference between a negative campaign and a dangerous one. McCain and Palin are inciting hatred at their rallies by suggesting that Obama has associated himself with terrorists. Bob Cesca writes:

"I think we can conclude that the McCain-Palin ticket is inciting a violent attack on Senator Obama and his family. Here's the reasoning: they say Senator Obama hangs around with terrorists. Therefore he supports terrorists. We're fighting a war against terrorism. So let's fight a war on that one.

I don't think we've ever seen this level of potentially violent form of campaigning in our lifetime, and someone needs to seriously call out McCain on this one."

"Someone needs to step up to McCain -- and especially Palin -- and put a stop to this before someone gets hurt. I can't be more serious about this. McCain and Palin are treading on dangerous ground here."

Electoral Update - Staging the Fat Lady

Roger Simon of Politico says this morning that the outlook for McCain is "bleak." Howard Wolfson is calling the McCain campaign a "casualty." Jay Cost of Real Clear Politics says McCain is in a "terrible spot." Peter Wehner labels the challenge ahead as a "daunting task." And Joe Klein compares McCain's campaign to "throwing crap against a wall."

So, forgive me if it takes incredible restraint to keep from saying, "It's over. John McCain is toast."

I know what you're thinking already!

Yes, yes.. it's important to remember that we have nearly a month left until Election Day. However, it's a steep climb and a far stretch for John McCain to win, and here's why.

As we've mentioned before several times, John Kerry's 2004 states represent 252 electoral votes. It's important to know that Barack Obama is performing very well in every one of those states. He's solidified his position in PA, MI, WI, NH and MN appears to be shaping up too. He's also performing very well in Iowa (7) and New Mexico (5), two states that Bush won in 2004.

252 (Kerry States) +  12 (IA/NM) = 264

That leaves Obama needing just six electoral votes to get to the magic 270. Just six.  That's it. And just where can Obama find six electoral votes? There are many possibilities.

Nevada (5) where Obama has led in the last three consecutive polls. For that reason, we're moving Nevada from tossup to leans Obama.

Colorado (9) where Obama leads by an average of five points over the last several polls. Rasmussen/Fox News, just today, has Obama leading by six points.

In Virginia (13), polls yesterday and today show Obama winning by large margins.

More than 600,000 new voters have been registered in North Carolina (15) in 2008. Maybe that's part of the reason why polls lately have not only shown Barack Obama leading but also Kay Hagan.  We're moving North Carolina from the tossup list to the leans Obama column.

Missouri (11) had been polling in John McCain's favor all year.  Late polls now show Barack Obama leading here; however, there are not enough recent polls for us to know where the race stands. Don't be surprised if the Show-Me state reveals more polling favoring Obama this week.

Florida (27) and Ohio (20) are once again big trophies.  As we said last week, John McCain absolutely must win both to have any chance of becoming the nation's next president. McCain who once was leading in both states is now behind. That is especially clear in Florida where Obama appears to be in control. Fox News/Rasmussen's poll from today shows Obama winning by 7, and Quinnipiac less than a week ago had Obama winning by 8. 

Ohio (20) is not as clear to us not only because recent polls have gone back and forth but also because we are not clear about new voter registration numbers. RCP's Ohio average favors Obama by 3.5 points. As we've promised, Ohio will remain in the tossup until a clear leader emerges.

These states have a combined 100 electoral votes, and Obama needs just six of them.  John McCain needs virtually every one from all seven states. While it is quite possible for McCain to win a few of these states, the probability of him winning every one (or even all but one) is quite remote. 

He will need a real game changer..an October surprise..if he's to have any shot at all. It's no exaggeration to say that tonight's debate is a do-or-die situation for McCain.

Possible? It certainly is. In the meantime, someone should be telling the fat lady to clear her throat. She's the next act to perform.

Here are some interesting facts about Ohio from the 2004 election.

- John Kerry lost Ohio by 181,601 votes (-2.1%).

- Hamilton County, Cincinnati, favored George Bush (222,616) over John Kerry (199,679). -5.41%

- One in five voters in 2004 voted in either Franklin or Cuyahoga counties. Kerry won both.

- Counties with the largest numbers of voters.

2004

County	Kerry	%	Bush	%
1. Cuyahoga	448,503	66.57%	221,600	32.89%
2. Franklin	285,801	54.35%	237,253	45.12%
3. Hamilton	199,679	47.09%	222,616	52.50%
4. Montgomery	142,997	50.60%	138,371	48.97%
5. Summit	156,587	56.67%	118,558	42.91%
6. Lucas	132,715	60.21%	87,160	39.54%
7. Stark	95,337	50.59%	92,215	48.93%
8. Butler	56,243	33.71%	109,872	65.86%
9. Lorain	78,970	56.11%	61,203	43.49%
10. Mahoning	83,194	62.60%	48,761	36.69%
11. Lake	59,049	48.47%	62,193	51.05%
12. Trumbull	66,673	61.65%	40,977	37.89%

We will be publishing two updates per week between now and Election Day, a mid-week update on Tuesday and a more thorough analysis every Friday.

Electoral Update - McCain's Slow Motion Implosion

Last week, John McCain was on the brink of disaster. Today, his campaign is a disaster.

With just 31 days left until Election Day, John McCain's campaign is collapsing. For two weeks, several national polls have shown a growing momentum for Barack Obama. Swing state polling however had been slow to show the same effect..until now.

McCain's bread and butter (Florida and Ohio) are now toast. The collapse is especially visible in Florida where seven polling organizations in the last week have conducted surveys.  Six of the seven show Obama leading by three to seven points. For the first time since our first projection, Florida now leans Obama. As for Ohio, Obama is gaining there too; however, the contest in the Buckeye state remains very close. As promised, we intend to keep Ohio in the tossup column until a clear leader emerges.

We also made the same promise about Virginia. Virginia (13) has remained in the tossup column for the whole year except for the week directly after the RNC when we projected McCain to be leading. Since our last projection, three of five polls show Obama passing McCain with numbers at or above the 50% mark. ARG, who shows a three point edge for McCain, has often been erratic in 2008 (see RCP's response to Nate Silver), and Mason-Dixon also found McCain to be leading in their last poll on 9/22. But given what we know about Obama's surge in national averages and polling in neighboring North Carolina (15), we project Virginia to be leaning slightly for Obama.

Florida (27) + Ohio (20) = 47

Florida and Ohio are absolutely necessary for John McCain to win. Even with those states, getting to 270 will be difficult given what we know about Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, and McCain's busted hope on Michigan. As my good friend and fellow blogger Stephen Moody said earlier:

"The abandonment of a serious effort in Michigan further complicates an increasingly difficult challenge for the McCain campaign to garner the necessary 270 electoral votes for a victory on Nov. 4th. Now more than ever, both Florida and Ohio have become must-wins for the GOP ticket."

Obama's momentum is broad and deep and is evident in three of the categories we use for our projection.

1. States that previously were leaning Obama have now moved to solid Obama (PA, MI, NJ, NM, OR).
   
2. Two states previously listed as tossup have now moved to lean Obama (VA, FL).
   
3. Two states that were previously leaning McCain are now tossup (MO, NV).

It's safe to say that this is Barack Obama's high water mark for the year so far. For eleven weeks Obama's electoral advantage has remained flat, primarily because of Florida and Ohio. Those two nuts haven't been easy for Obama to crack. The recent crash on Wall Street, Palin's wobbly interview, Obama's debate win, and McCain's gimmickery all have dragged the Republican ticket down. John McCain, just from last week alone, has lost 43 electoral votes. 

Questions to consider between now and next week:

1. Is Barack Obama's lead sustainable? 

Much has been made of the buyer's remorse theory this year. While voter's may have been weary of Barack Obama months ago, they don't appear to be now. Charges that he may be inexperienced or an amateur have been undermined by McCain's real amateur running mate. Obama's first debate performance also reassured independent voters of his ability to handle foreign affairs.  It appears that for the first time many voters are becoming comfortable with the idea of a President Obama.

2. Will the slow motion collapse of John McCain's campaign accelerate, slow down, or stop? 

The electoral ceiling for Barack Obama is somewhere between 50 and 60 votes higher than our current projection estimate. The last three weeks have been a complete disaster for John McCain. Obama's numbers will continue to climb as long as the economy keeps losing jobs and McCain keeps shooting from the hip. Palin's satisfactory debate performance is likely to make news for one or two days, but it will be irrelevant in less than a week (veep debate analysis). For John McCain to have any chance at a significant comeback, Barack Obama will have to stumble.

3. Would Tina Fey really make a good Vice President? I don't know about you, but it's hard for me to distinguish the difference between the SNL version of Sarah Palin and the real Sarah Palin. Here's a video with a side-by-side comparison. See what I mean?

As so many have said already, a week is a lifetime in politics. But aside from some unforseen disaster, Barack Obama is likely to be elected as the 44th President of the United States. Thousands of people in Ohio and Virginia have already made their choice by voting early, and with each passing day, thousands more will do the same. One third of the electorate will vote by November 4th. 

The probability of McCain using another gimmick is about 90%. The chances of it working are close to zero. And if his strategy once again becomes attacking Obama, he runs the risk of digging the hole even deeper than it is now. If John McCain wins this election, it won't have anything to do with a new McCain campaign strategy/gimmick. Barack Obama holds the keys to victory for both himself and John McCain.

Electoral Update - Obama Catches Momentum

If your head hurts from analyzing so many polls over the past week, you're not alone. By our count there have been 99 polls released since last Friday.  American Research Group, in the last two days, has released 30 of their own including perhaps the only D.C. poll we'll ever see between now and election day (Obama 82 McCain 13). Why bother, right?

In nine weeks, we've noticed essentially no movement up or down for Obama, almost as if there's an unbreakable ceiling around the 268-273 mark. Blame Florida which has been leaning McCain since the beginning of August. Obama's also had a tough time gaining momentum in Ohio. With Ohio, Florida, and a handful of traditionally red states now leaning toward McCain, it's easy to see why the Arizona Senator has surged over the last few weeks.

Here's a look at the electoral movement over the past seven days. 

Obama 273 (+5)

• Gain:  New Mexico (5) where the last four polls show Obama with significant leads, two of which show a 7 point margin.

McCain 232 (-8)

• Gain:  Nevada (5) where he's led in every poll since the end of the Republican convention.
  
• Loss:  McCain loses Virginia (13) to tossup.

In recent days, national polling has revealed a significant shift back in favor of Barack Obama. This comes as no surprise given the this week's bad news on Wallstreet. However, the shift in state-to-state polling shows less movement. This may be because several of the state polls were conducted during or prior to the market meltdown. For example, the Big 10 Battleground Pennsylvania poll showing the race as tied, was conducted 9/14 - 9/17. It's not possible to know how many voters were sampled prior to the bad market news.

Last week, we asked three important questions, two of which were related to Palin's impact.

1.  Can John McCain sustain his current numbers?

At this point, it appears the answer is no.  And the reasons why are plenty.  The slipping economy, convention bounce falls back to earth, Palin's newness wearing off, regulation/deregulation flip-flops, and more McCain gaffes.  Is McCain in big trouble? As McCain does damage control over the weekend, he'll also try to regain momentum. But what strategies does he have left?  The negative ads he ran just days ago seem to have backfired, so that option may be off the table. Running on the issues will be tough given the Republican brand. Palin's shiny new appeal is wearing off, not to mention he can't let her speak for fear of her assuming she's at the top of the ticket! Don't be surprised if McCain tries to shift the focus to foreign policy and Iraq again.

2. Can Obama hang on to the Kerry states?

While there has been plenty of good news lately to rejoice about in the Obama camp, they have also noticed some slippage in places where losing would be disastrous.  Moderate leads in PA, MI, MN, and WI have slipped to razor thin margins (1-3 points) according to a couple of recent polls.  Two polls in PA show the race tied and one in MN reveals similar results. It will be interesting to see if state polling catches up to the latest round of national polls.

3.  Is there a page two of the Palin story?

The love affair is over, and Palin's favorable numbers have fallen like a rock. With each passing day, there's another news story about Palin.  And the news is not good [see more]. Page 3? Page 4? The number gurus at Fivethirtyeight.com answer this question thoroughly.

McCain's other problem is that Sarah Palin may no longer be an asset to the ticket; in fact, she may be a liability. Averaging the candidates' favorability scores across four recent polls -- as one should always try and do when looking at favorability numbers since they can vary greatly depending on question wording -- Palin now has the worst net scores among the four principals in the race:


Palin's average favorability score is now a +7 -- about 10 points behind Joe Biden's numbers. Perhaps more importantly, these numbers are 10-15 points behind where Palin's numbers were just a week or so ago. If voters come in not knowing very much about a candidate -- and the more they see of the candidate, the less they like of the candidate -- this is a major concern.

Battleground States

Several projection models around the country this week show large numbers of tossup states. Our model is based on an analysis of several polls as opposed to a knee-jerk reaction to just one or two. For example, we've decided to keep Minnesota in the Obama column for the moment because of national movement favoring him. Even more, McCain has never led in Minnesota. New Hampshire follows the same pattern where just two polls have been conducted since the close of the RNC. One recent poll shows McCain leading by three; however, that is his first lead in NH since May. If trends develop, we'll make adjustments.

What's happening in Pennyslvania?

Two polls in PA since last week show the race as dead even: Rasmussen and Big 10 Battleground. This flies in the face of recent national polling. This may be the result of both polls being conducted before the Wallstreet Crisis. Obama may need to call in Bill and Hillary to help bring "lunch bucket Democrats" into the fold. Biden, from PA, also plays a role in securing PA's 21 electoral votes.  We'll move PA to tossup if any other polling suggests the race as tied or McCain leading.

Rockin' Pollin' Ohio

Unless something breaks for one side or the other, we may just keep Ohio in the tossup column until our last projection. Both sides have reasons to be cautiously optimistic.  For McCain, there have been eight polls conducted in the last three days, six of which he's leading.  Obama is hoping for some traction after two consecutive polls show him leading here.  Neither candidate has been able to break the race wide open, and it's unlikely either will.  More polls have been conducted in Ohio than any other state since the party conventions ended (13 since September 9th).  Obama can claim the White House simply by winning Ohio and hanging on to the Kerry states.

Meet Virginia Tossup

All year long, polling has suggested a tight race in Virginia.  All the sudden, we have numbers all over the place. In the past week, the race has been shown to be anywhere from Obama leading by two to McCain leading by nine. Two polls show the race as tied.

Colorado & New Mexico (Obama's Backup)

The best news of the week for Obama may be that he's still protecting his lead in Colorado and expanding his lead in New Mexico. In Colorado, voters have been surveyed seven times since the close of the RNC, and Obama has led in five of those polls by an average of four points. He's also led in the last two consecutive polls, one by ten points. In New Mexico, Obama has led in three consecutive polls by seven or eight points.

45 Days...

We are at another turning point in the campaign where Obama has an opportunity to extend his lead. McCain's gaffes and flipflops could be catching up to him.  Palin's plunge isn't helping either. If national numbers continue to hold up for Obama, will the battlegrounds show equal movement? 

While it's clear there's been a momentum shift back in Obama's favor, one week is a lifetime in American politics.  The last time McCain needed a jolt to his campaign, he shocked everyone with Palin. If at some point, the campaign begins to slip away, he may just pull another fast one. 

Looking to next week, John McCain probably can't wait until the first debate, which will focus on foreign policy and national security. He's proven, thus far, to be a better speaker than many thought he'd be in the forums we've seen so far. The expectations won't be high for McCain so even a mediocre performance is sure to get high marks from his surrogates (Ditto Palin). 

Next Friday's debate between Obama and McCain, moderated by Jim Lehrer, begins at 9:00 pm EST and can be watched on most major networks.  Third party candidates will not be included as none have reached a 15% minimum polling requirement (in five polls) as mandated by the Commission on Presidential Debates.

Join Us! ElectBlue Campaign Road Trip

We're putting our money where our mouth is, and we want you to join us.

This Saturday, ElectBlue will be taking to the road, traveling to the all important swing-state of Ohio to work with the Barack Obama campaign.

If you've been following polls and electoral projections, you know already how important Ohio is. Republicans are working harder than ever in Ohio, and that's why we're putting our boots on the ground there.

You can help too.

Join us this Saturday in Cincinnati, Ohio as we canvass communities and help register new voters. We're taking the fight to Republicans as we help Barack Obama win back the White House.  For information on how to volunteer in other swing states, contact the Obama campaign here.

For more information on how to campaign with ElectBlue,  email us today!

What:  ElectBlue Campaign Road Trip

When:  Saturday Sept 20 (Meet @ 1PM EST) & Sunday Sept 21

Where:  Barack Obama Cincinnati Office

Contact:  Email Us: ElectBlue@comcast.net

AP to Neutrality and Logic: Drop Dead

The Associated Press has been a disgrace to journalism lately under the direction of their DC bureau chief Ron Fournier, who just last year was in serious talks with John McCain’s campaign as a paid advisor; and they are at it again.

Yesterday, the AP released another on a long line of many hit pieces on Senator Obama. This one proclaims that despite for all of Obama’s talk about expanding the electoral map, he is quickly adopting the “Win Ohio” strategy that John Kerry’s ill-fated campaign adopted in 2004. Their “evidence” for this is that Obama in his post-convention tour visited such traditional battlegrounds such as Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Quite obviously, this is proof that he has given up on all other states his campaign has targeted.

Let’s look at (and refute) some of the more dubious claims on the piece:

"Despite early optimism, Obama's strategists are mapping out an electoral plan similar to Democrat John Kerry's from 2004…. But don't look for the Democratic presidential nominee in, say, undeniably GOP Idaho.”

This is probably true…I do not expect to see Obama make a play in Idaho, however no one serious ever claimed he would. This is a state that George Bush (only Wyoming and Utah were more favorable to the GOP in 2004) won by nearly forty points. In other news, John Sidney McCain III isn't making a play in Vermont. Gasp!

"Obama has long looked for a way to win the White House without the 20 electoral votes of Ohio, the prototypical swing state. His top aides, including his campaign manager, once said they could lose the state and still win the election by picking off states that typically support Republicans. No more."

Really now? While Obama is still, as he always has, focusing a great deal of attention on Ohio, it is hardly his “be all and end all” of his electoral strategy. Let’s just consider this for a moment:

Michigan and New Hampshire are the only two Kerry states that McCain is even in striking distance, and in both states Obama is polling narrowly, but consistently, ahead of McCain. The Kerry states puts him at 252 electoral votes, and he now has a double digit lead in Iowa and a high single digit lead in New Mexico which would bring him to 264 electoral votes. Now Obama is not guaranteed to win the aforementioned four states, but he is clearly favored. 538’s regression model (not to mention essentially every poll) has him winning Michigan and New Hampshire by 3-4%; as well as Iowa and New Mexico by 7-9%. If these numbers hold, Obama is already at 264 electoral votes.

So where does that leave John Sidney McCain III? He would have to win states where he has a slight, though unclear polling advantages such as Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Montana, and North Dakota; all of which except the last two possess enough electoral votes to put Obama over 270, should he win.

Of course, there are also states like Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado where the race is essentially a deadheat (though 538’s regression gives Obama a very slight advantage in all three); that Obama can rely on to win. Even Nevada which, again, is a basic dead heat (though 538’s regression gives a very slight advantage for McCain as of this writing) would bring it in a 269-269 tie (Even if Obama loses all of the other states that I mentioned), which would probably result in his victory. While this area is murky and without a lot of precedent, most analysis confirms that Obama would likely prevail in a 269-269 tie, due to the Democratic advantage in Congress (See all of 538's regressions based on historical data and polling models here).

Needless to say, Senator Obama has plenty of electoral scenarios that don’t go through the Buckeye State. Maybe they should write a story on how Michigan is essentially a must-win for McCain (unless he wants to roll the dice and hope he runs the table among the other swing states).

Maybe the AP will consider being thoughtful and fair for once. But I'm not holding my breath.

New Polls: Obama Leading in FL, OH, PA

Those of us who follow polls on a daily basis are just now recovering from emotional shock after Monday's disastrous Gallup flop.  To help expedite our recovery, Quinnipiac has just released a group of new polls for a few key states.

Florida:  

Obama 46  McCain 44

Ohio:  

Obama 46 McCain 44

Pennsylvania:  

Obama 49  McCain 42

It's difficult to put stock into these numbers however.  Quinnipiac is calling McCain's latest numbers a surge despite Florida and Ohio netting him just 2% over last month.

"'The $64,000 question is whether Sen. John McCain's surge is a result of Sen. Obama's much-publicized Middle Eastern and European trip, or just a coincidence that it occurred while Sen. Obama was abroad,' said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute." 

"'While Obama was on tour, trying to show voters he could handle world affairs, voters were home trying to fill their gas tanks,' Brown added."

Obama was just three days into his foreign tour when Quinnipiac began polling (July 23).  The miniature gains by McCain in this latest round of polling are unlikely the result of a "surge" of sudden support.  Put your checkbook down Mr. Brown, I'll take the $64K in cash. 

CNN's Political Ticker producer, Alexander Mooney, couldn't resist the urge to present this story as some spectacular theatre.

"But in what could be a warning sign for Obama as voters begin to turn their attention to the general election race, Obama's lead appears to have dwindled, or barely remained steady, in all three states..."

Warning sign?  Nothing has changed.  Florida and Ohio have been close all summer.  There was virtually no lead for McCain to narrow in the first place.  As for Pennsylvania, a Strategic Vision (Republican) poll released just yesterday shows Obama leading by nine.  Mr. Mooney apparently didn't get the memo.

Last week, Quinnipiac also showed a 15% swing for John McCain in Minnesota, narrowing Obama's lead to just 2% in less than a month.  Quinnipiac's Minnesota number is so far distant from other polling groups (including their own data from the month before) that it's almost certain to be a statistical outlier.  See also Colorado.

There's no shortage of reporters who desperately want a horse race, and you'll be hard pressed to find a surge in anything these days unless you're looking for a growing number of miscalculated blunders by professional pollsters. 

Tomorrow:  Friday's Electoral Projection.