Is Your State Ready For November 4th ?

With a growing concern of a total meltdown of the election system this year, we will be releasing specific details of what we find in our State Election Readiness Survey.

We begin our research today in Nevada. After speaking to a public official from the Nevada Secretary of State office today, we find that Nevada has taken steps to increase the numbers of voting machines and polling places in the state's two largest counties.

Here are the details of those changes as outlined by the Nevada Secretary of State:

Anticipating record turnout, Nevada has increased the number of polling places and voting machines in its two population centers, and has increased opportunitiesfor early voting throughout the state, increasing voter accessibility.

More Polling Locations
Clark County:
2008: 339 Polling Locations
2004: 329 Polling Locations

Washoe County:
2008:  99 Polling Locations
2004:  92 Polling Locations

More Voting Machines
Clark County:
2008:  4,041 Machines
       807,721 Registered Voters
      199 Voters per Machine
2004:  2,895 Machines
      684,313 Registered Voters
     236 Voters per Machine

Washoe County:
2008:  1,327 Machines
      231,470 Registered Voters
      174 Voters per machine
2004:  1,117 Machines
      233,095 Registered Voters
      209 Voters per Machine

Statewide the number of voting machines has increased from 4,913 in the 2004 election to 6,888 for the 2008 election. The increase in machines has reduced the number of voters per machine statewide from 218 voters per machine in 2004
to 174 voters per machine in 2008.

The Brennan Center of Justice, in a state-by-state survey of their own, found that Nevada does need improvement in their preparedness as it relates to contingency plans in the event of an emergency. There is no state mandate requiring counties in Nevada to use emergency paper ballots in the case of machine failure.

The report gave Nevada generally good marks in other areas such as ballot reconciliation and post-election audits. For full details of the Brennan Center of Justice report, click here.

Nevada Poll: Obama 47 - McCain 45

A new Mason-Dixon poll  this morning shows Barack Obama making gains in Nevada. A previous Mason-Dixon poll from August showed John McCain leading by seven points.

"Since that time, the undecided number has shrunk by 9 percent and pretty much the entire swing has gone to Obama, noted Mark Peplowski, a political scientist at the College of Southern Nevada. 'Unless something happens to take the focus off the dismal state of the economy, he said, he would expect the trend to continue to favor Obama.

"All other things being equal, undecideds tend to swing toward the candidate they view as an instrument of change," he said. "If you were to take another survey this weekend, you would probably find an even bigger bump for Obama."

In Clark County, the Democratic stronghold that is home to more than 70 percent of the state's population, Obama led by 50 percent to 42 percent. Just as predictably, McCain led in rural Nevada, 55 percent to 38 percent.

But in Washoe County, once a Republican stronghold, McCain had 46 percent of the vote, Obama 45 percent.

Electoral Update - Staging the Fat Lady

Roger Simon of Politico says this morning that the outlook for McCain is "bleak." Howard Wolfson is calling the McCain campaign a "casualty." Jay Cost of Real Clear Politics says McCain is in a "terrible spot." Peter Wehner labels the challenge ahead as a "daunting task." And Joe Klein compares McCain's campaign to "throwing crap against a wall."

So, forgive me if it takes incredible restraint to keep from saying, "It's over. John McCain is toast."

I know what you're thinking already!

Yes, yes.. it's important to remember that we have nearly a month left until Election Day. However, it's a steep climb and a far stretch for John McCain to win, and here's why.

As we've mentioned before several times, John Kerry's 2004 states represent 252 electoral votes. It's important to know that Barack Obama is performing very well in every one of those states. He's solidified his position in PA, MI, WI, NH and MN appears to be shaping up too. He's also performing very well in Iowa (7) and New Mexico (5), two states that Bush won in 2004.

252 (Kerry States) +  12 (IA/NM) = 264

That leaves Obama needing just six electoral votes to get to the magic 270. Just six.  That's it. And just where can Obama find six electoral votes? There are many possibilities.

Nevada (5) where Obama has led in the last three consecutive polls. For that reason, we're moving Nevada from tossup to leans Obama.

Colorado (9) where Obama leads by an average of five points over the last several polls. Rasmussen/Fox News, just today, has Obama leading by six points.

In Virginia (13), polls yesterday and today show Obama winning by large margins.

More than 600,000 new voters have been registered in North Carolina (15) in 2008. Maybe that's part of the reason why polls lately have not only shown Barack Obama leading but also Kay Hagan.  We're moving North Carolina from the tossup list to the leans Obama column.

Missouri (11) had been polling in John McCain's favor all year.  Late polls now show Barack Obama leading here; however, there are not enough recent polls for us to know where the race stands. Don't be surprised if the Show-Me state reveals more polling favoring Obama this week.

Florida (27) and Ohio (20) are once again big trophies.  As we said last week, John McCain absolutely must win both to have any chance of becoming the nation's next president. McCain who once was leading in both states is now behind. That is especially clear in Florida where Obama appears to be in control. Fox News/Rasmussen's poll from today shows Obama winning by 7, and Quinnipiac less than a week ago had Obama winning by 8. 

Ohio (20) is not as clear to us not only because recent polls have gone back and forth but also because we are not clear about new voter registration numbers. RCP's Ohio average favors Obama by 3.5 points. As we've promised, Ohio will remain in the tossup until a clear leader emerges.

These states have a combined 100 electoral votes, and Obama needs just six of them.  John McCain needs virtually every one from all seven states. While it is quite possible for McCain to win a few of these states, the probability of him winning every one (or even all but one) is quite remote. 

He will need a real game changer..an October surprise..if he's to have any shot at all. It's no exaggeration to say that tonight's debate is a do-or-die situation for McCain.

Possible? It certainly is. In the meantime, someone should be telling the fat lady to clear her throat. She's the next act to perform.

Here are some interesting facts about Ohio from the 2004 election.

- John Kerry lost Ohio by 181,601 votes (-2.1%).

- Hamilton County, Cincinnati, favored George Bush (222,616) over John Kerry (199,679). -5.41%

- One in five voters in 2004 voted in either Franklin or Cuyahoga counties. Kerry won both.

- Counties with the largest numbers of voters.

2004

County	Kerry	%	Bush	%
1. Cuyahoga	448,503	66.57%	221,600	32.89%
2. Franklin	285,801	54.35%	237,253	45.12%
3. Hamilton	199,679	47.09%	222,616	52.50%
4. Montgomery	142,997	50.60%	138,371	48.97%
5. Summit	156,587	56.67%	118,558	42.91%
6. Lucas	132,715	60.21%	87,160	39.54%
7. Stark	95,337	50.59%	92,215	48.93%
8. Butler	56,243	33.71%	109,872	65.86%
9. Lorain	78,970	56.11%	61,203	43.49%
10. Mahoning	83,194	62.60%	48,761	36.69%
11. Lake	59,049	48.47%	62,193	51.05%
12. Trumbull	66,673	61.65%	40,977	37.89%

We will be publishing two updates per week between now and Election Day, a mid-week update on Tuesday and a more thorough analysis every Friday.