Moose Voter Update: Antlers Over Anchorage

It has been just over two weeks since we published our first analysis of the moose voter's role in the 2008 Presidential election. A flurry of new polls in moose belt states, some interesting anecdotal information and, most importantly, the results of  ElectBlue's own exclusive Moose Voter Focus Group, all cry out for an update.

First, a bit of a refresher. Moose voters are found in states with naturally occurring populations of wild moose. There are thirteen states in what we like to call the 'moose belt': ME, NH, VT, NY, MI, WI, MN, CO, MT, ID, WA, OR and AK. 

As we noted in our initial piece, moose voters have numerous characteristics in common. They are uncommonly fond of cold weather, own lots of heavy winter clothing, love riding around in snow mobiles and are positively addicted to ice fishing. They prefer Molson to Budweiser, almost always drive American cars and are politically very independent.

The latest polls in several moose belt states indicate increasing support for Democrat Barack Obama. Since our last review, Obama and VP nominee Joe Biden, have widened their lead over John McCain and running mate, Sarah 'Moose-Huntin' Mama' Palin, in no less than seven moose belt states: NH, MI, MN, WI, CO, WA and OR. The Democratic ticket maintains previously strong leads in ME, VT and NY. The GOP duo are ahead in only three of the moose states: MT, ID and Palin's own AK. Even here there are signs of trouble, however, as some recent polls and a few local pundits are suggesting a tightening race in Montana. Not good news for the Mavericks.

The internals of recent moose belt polls show what we see in other parts of the country: economic worries are making moose voters ever more blue. This information is particularly worrisome for Republicans since it is a well known fact that the typical moose voter can endure temperatures far below zero without turning blue. The realization that moose belt voters can so easily go blue politically has top GOP strategists in a dither. There are scattered reports of moose-inspired panic attacks at the RNC in recent days. ElectBlue has been unable, however, to verify these reports.

Anecdotal confirmation of the negative impact the economy is having on moose voters comes to us by way of some fascinating retail sales data and an alarming report from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officials in the moose belt:

-  sales of heavy flannel shirts and fur-lined parkas are way up, while the snow mobile market has collapsed right across the whole region. Moose voters are clearly trying to hedge against anticipated soaring home-heating costs and high gasoline prices.

- unnamed ICE officials say there has been a sharp spike in attempts to smuggle Canadian products (especially beer) into the US.  Apparently the weak US dollar and a completely unfounded rumor that Canada will seal its border with the US if McCain-Palin win the election have spawned this increase in smuggling activity.

Finally, there is this astonishing finding from ElectBlue's exclusive Moose Voter Focus Group. In addition to concerns about the economy, moose belt voters are worried about the national security implications of a GOP White House win. It seems that many moose voters have heard ugly rumors that Sarah Palin, busy campaigning in the lower forty-eight, has been neglecting her responsibilities to protect Alaskan airspace from Russian incursions. Last week there were even reports of Russian MIGs being spotted as far south as Spokane and Boise. (ElectBlue cannot confirm these rumors. Calls to the Department of Homeland Security about these reports have gone unanswered.) Naturally, moose voters are unnerved by the thought of what might happen if Palin were to move to Washington for four years. Who would scan the northern skies, keeping an eye out for those pesky Russians?

(For the record, our Moose Voter Focus Group was conducted last Friday evening at Olaf's Bait Shop and Seafood Grill, located a few miles north of Red Lake, MN. It's a friendly, folksy kind of place with lots of Scandinavian charm. Our voter focus group consisted of about a dozen local patrons, a few Canadian tourists and some guy asking directions to Minneapolis.)

The bottom line, electorally speaking, remains unchanged from two weeks ago. Obama-Biden will sweep the moose belt on November 4th, racking up at least 107 of the region's 117 electoral votes. If current trends continue, the Democrats will win these states not just by a landslide, but by a veritable moose-slide. 

The Moose Vote: Obama, not Mama

Many of us hardcore political junkies spend a lot time every election cycle pouring over hundreds of polls, trolling for every bit of information we can find. There is typically a lot of focus on various groups of voters, identified by gender, race, age, geography, education level, income bracket, etc. This so-called identity politics has also become a staple of the chattering classes on cable TV and in the print media.

It's become the fashion to give these voting blocs catchy little labels so we don't have to go through long descriptions (or - God forbid! - offer proof of their existence) to make our point. Think of CNN's John King, who can hardly get through a recap of the latest poll without at least one reference to "lunch-bucket Democrats". Then there is MSNBC's Chris Matthews, waxing poetic over the "white, blue-collar, Catholic, working class voters" of Pennsylvania.  And, of course, there are the universally invoked "Reagan Democrats". You know the drill.

Thanks to the selection of Sarah Palin as the Republican VP candidate, we at ElectBlue have identified a group of voters who have been all but ignored by the mainstream media. So, we're going to correct that oversight here and now. These are what we call moose voters. 

Moose voters live in states with naturally-occurring populations of wild moose. In spite of wide differences in location, education, income, race, gender, etc., these voters have a lot in common. They share a a fondness for cold weather, own lots of heavy winter clothing, love riding around in snow mobiles and are addicted to ice fishing. They typically prefer Molson to Budweiser, drive American cars and have a very independent political streak.

There are thirteen states in what we like to call the moose belt: ME, NH, VT, NY, MI, WI, MN, CO, MT, ID, WA, OR and, of course, AK. So how is the presidential race shaking out with moose voters this election? In a word, it's not even close - even though the results may be a bit surprising to many.

Barack Obama and running mate Joe Biden have a commanding lead over John McCain and Sarah ("Moose Huntin' Mama") Palin. Of the thirteen states in the moose belt, Obama-Biden currently lead in ten: ME, NH, VT, NY, MI, WI, MN, CO, WA and OR. Only three states - MT, ID and AK - look safe for the McCain-Palin ticket. In the race for moose state electoral votes, Obama-Biden are crushing McCain-Palin, 107 to 10.

Of course, things can and do change in an election campaign. We at ElectBlue are committed to follow developments in the moose belt. We will bring you updates as warranted.