Then There Were Three?

The New York Times is reporting, what most of us have deducted over the past couple weeks, that Senator Obama's decision on a Vice President is imminent and has "virtually decided," whom the pick will be. They also report that the decision likely to come as early as Wednesday morning and that the list has been narrowed down to three: Senators Evan Bayh and Joe Biden as well as Governor Tim Kaine.

This is not particularly news, other than the fact that names like Kathleen Sebelius and Sam Nunn seems to have taken a backseat to the aforementioned trio. So before all of our cell phones buzz Wednesday morning (or whenever the announcement is sent via text message to all us political junkies), I wanted to briefly talk about these three choices and their potential upsides and drawbacks (especially those not talked about by the media).

Evan Bayh.

The Good: Photogenic, Experienced in multiple offices, well liked by the conservative wing of the party; yet palatable to most of the party, puts Indiana even more in play (the Hoosier State has been a fixation of the Obama campaign), strong and early supporter of Hillary Clinton. Geography: Could put the upper Midwest in the bag for Obama

The Not-so-good: Likely forfeits a Senate seat, has a reputation for being bland, and picking him would look extremely safe and political in nature.

A few questions: Is picking a son of a legendary U.S. Senator the best way to present your message of change? Is he a better candidate on paper than in practice? Is geographical balance still important? If so, how will an all Midwest ticket play?

Bottom-line: Bayh is the "safest" pick for Obama, yet still very attractive. The imagery of a young running mate would make a great photo-op. I still ultimately don't think Obama risks a Senate seat (nor do I think Bayh is Obama's top choice for the job) and the charges of being too safe in his selection.

Joe Biden.

The Good: Well-liked, a great debater and attack dog, strong foreign policy credentials, has a moderate profile, and is somewhat well-known and nationally vetted. Could help with Catholics and could put his birth state of Pennsylvania in the bank.

Not-so-good: His Mouth, Delaware is already safely in the Democratic column, questions about health, his position on Iraq.

A few questions: Can Obama claim to be an agent of change while putting a thirty-six year Senator on the ticket? He's 65 years old and had two brain aneurysms over twenty years ago. Could the Biden-Iraq partition plan be a liability? Does he make Obama seem small by comparison a la Lloyd Bentsen? Would picking him be a subtle signal that Obama is not over-sensitive to racial remarks?

Bottom Line: Biden, while he could contradict Obama's message of change, makes perfect sense as a running mate. During the primaries he was a happy warrior against Rudy Giulani and other Republicans. Yes, his mouth is problematic, but could make things lively and would bring even more energy to the ticket. Could be the compromise candidate for Obama between head (Bayh) and heart (Kaine).

Tim Kaine.

The Good: Fits perfectly with Obama's message, Governor of key swing state (Virginia), Helps with Catholics and religious voters, energetic, and has perfect chemistry with Obama. Would provide a great photo-op.

The Not-so-good: Vulnerable to accusations of inexperience, forfeits Governorship to a Republican for 12 months, not a favorite among women's groups and labor, while popular he is no Mark Warner.

Questions: Is Denver going to be too Virginia centric with Mark Warner keynoting? Kaine's electoral win in Virginia was based more in Richmond/No. Va. rather than Warner's rural strategy and does he help that much in VA in light of that? Was he too accessible the last month? I can't imagine all those leaks and interviews made Team Chicago too happy...

The Bottom Line: He is clearly, politics aside, Obama's preferred governing partner (they share a similar history, Kaine was an early backer of his, and their message is largely the same). But in light of the events in Eastern Europe and some slight poll tightening will Obama pick a more tested running mate like Biden or Bayh?

Biden and Kaine seem more likely right now than Bayh (though myself and Stephen Moody are looking for good recipe books just in case...) or a dark horse. I don't know who he picks, but I definitely feel it is either Biden or Kaine. But I'll be impatiently waiting by my phone in the meantime...

But remember as William Goldman said, "No one knows anything," and I think we all remember this (though in retrospect it might not have been the worst idea in the world):

A Sneak Peak at the Veep...

With Senator Obama's travels about to come to an end, I imagine the Veep guessing game will soon be underway full steam. In spite of the opinions of many of the talking media heads on cable TV, here are a few oft-mentioned VP choices for the Dems that I think are very long shots:

1. Sen. Evan Bayh (IN);
2. Sen. Jack Reed (RI);
3. Sen. Chris Dodd (CT).

All three of these sitting Democratic senators represent states with incumbent Republican governors. I don't think Sen. Harry Reid (NV), Senate Majority Leader, or Sen. Chuck Schumer (NY), head of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, would be any too happy about surrendering a senate seat that is sure to be taken by a Republican if the Obama ticket wins. Count Bayh, Reed and Dodd out.

Also mentioned often but equally unlikely to get the VP nod:

1. Gov. Bill Richardson (NM);
2. Sen. Chuck Hagel (NE).

Richardson's very public break with the Clintons during the primary left a lot of bitter feelings that make him a high-risk choice for Obama. Hagel, as indicated by the red font used for his name, is a Republican. Although he has been good on the Iraq War, Hagel's otherwise very conservative record makes him unacceptable to important constituencies in the Democratic Party. No way on either of these guys.

So, where does that leave us? There are three choices for Obama's VP that seem very viable. Each of them could bring as much to the Democratic ticket as any vice-presidential candidate is likely to do:

1. Sen. Hillary Clinton (NY). Yep, she's still on my list. She carries a lot of baggage for sure, but she probably has a lot more good baggage than bad.
2. Fmr. Sen. Sam Nunn (GA). He has tons of foreign policy experience and that re-assuring Southern accent that many Independents and moderate Republicans find so appealing. Nunn has some repair work to do with the powerful pro-choice and gay rights elements in the Democratic Party, but he could probably placate those groups with a well-timed 'death-bed' conversion on issues vital to them.
3. Sen. Joe Biden (DE). He also brings lots of foreign policy expertise, a certain gravitas and a well-deserved reputation as a fiery (to put it mildly) campaigner. The later, in fact, may be his biggest liability.

It's early days yet but that's where I see it right now.