Polling and the Cell Phone Factor

Brian Schaffner of Pollster.com examines one possibility of why we're seeing disparity between different national polls. Perhaps the difference lies in the cell phone factor.

One can get lost in the deluge of polls which, just this week, show anything from a narrow 1% Obama lead (AP-Gfk) to a substantial margin of 14% (Pew). One pattern that seems to have become particularly evident this week is that the polls showing the biggest leads for Obama tend to be those that are polling the cell phone only population (such as Pew, CBS/New York Times, and ABC/Washington Post). We know from the recent Pew report that excluding cell phone only respondents from the sampling frame reduces Obama's margin by 2-3%, even when the sample is weighted. But how does this affect the national trend estimate, which takes into account all polling?

National Poll: Obama By 9

A new Washington Post/ABC News Poll released this morning shows Barack Obama surging past John McCain to a 52-43 point lead nationally.  McCain's convention bounce gave him a two point lead two weeks ago, but that lead has now been erased as voters fear a worsening economy and the ongoing catastrophe on Wall Street.  

Highlights from the poll. View full polling data (pdf)

Obama leads 52-39 on the economy

Independents prefer Obama by 21 points on issues related to the economy

9% rate the economy as "good" or "excellent"


14% of voters believe the nation is heading in the right direction  (ties record low in 1973)


60% are worried about their own family finances


43% of independent women view Palin favorably compared to 65% last month (-22%)


62% of Obama supporters are "very enthusiastic" compared to just 34% for John McCain who feel the same way about his candidacy.

Florida Poll: McCain's Lead All But Gone

There's a new Florida poll out this morning, and the news is good for Barack Obama. The poll, underwritten by the St. Petersburg times and the Miami Herald, shows John McCain leading Barack Obama by just 2% (McCain 47 - Obama 45 - undecided 7). The poll has a margin of error of 3.5%.

Polls prior to 9/11 indicated a 6-8 point lead for John McCain.

An average of the four most recent polls from Florida show John McCain leading Obama, 48.75 to 45.5 (-3.25).

A few highlights from this poll:

Voters By Age

18-34: Obama +10

35-49: McCain +4

50-64: McCain +1

Over 65: McCain +7

Top concerns

Economy 43%

Iraq 14%

Terrorism 12%

Hispanic voters prefer John McCain 55-41

43% said their personal economic situation is worse now than it was two years ago.  Another 43% said their situation has not changed.

*Update* Another Florida poll today shows McCain leading by just 1%

Electoral Update - Obama Catches Momentum

If your head hurts from analyzing so many polls over the past week, you're not alone. By our count there have been 99 polls released since last Friday.  American Research Group, in the last two days, has released 30 of their own including perhaps the only D.C. poll we'll ever see between now and election day (Obama 82 McCain 13). Why bother, right?

In nine weeks, we've noticed essentially no movement up or down for Obama, almost as if there's an unbreakable ceiling around the 268-273 mark. Blame Florida which has been leaning McCain since the beginning of August. Obama's also had a tough time gaining momentum in Ohio. With Ohio, Florida, and a handful of traditionally red states now leaning toward McCain, it's easy to see why the Arizona Senator has surged over the last few weeks.

Here's a look at the electoral movement over the past seven days. 

Obama 273 (+5)

• Gain:  New Mexico (5) where the last four polls show Obama with significant leads, two of which show a 7 point margin.

McCain 232 (-8)

• Gain:  Nevada (5) where he's led in every poll since the end of the Republican convention.
  
• Loss:  McCain loses Virginia (13) to tossup.

In recent days, national polling has revealed a significant shift back in favor of Barack Obama. This comes as no surprise given the this week's bad news on Wallstreet. However, the shift in state-to-state polling shows less movement. This may be because several of the state polls were conducted during or prior to the market meltdown. For example, the Big 10 Battleground Pennsylvania poll showing the race as tied, was conducted 9/14 - 9/17. It's not possible to know how many voters were sampled prior to the bad market news.

Last week, we asked three important questions, two of which were related to Palin's impact.

1.  Can John McCain sustain his current numbers?

At this point, it appears the answer is no.  And the reasons why are plenty.  The slipping economy, convention bounce falls back to earth, Palin's newness wearing off, regulation/deregulation flip-flops, and more McCain gaffes.  Is McCain in big trouble? As McCain does damage control over the weekend, he'll also try to regain momentum. But what strategies does he have left?  The negative ads he ran just days ago seem to have backfired, so that option may be off the table. Running on the issues will be tough given the Republican brand. Palin's shiny new appeal is wearing off, not to mention he can't let her speak for fear of her assuming she's at the top of the ticket! Don't be surprised if McCain tries to shift the focus to foreign policy and Iraq again.

2. Can Obama hang on to the Kerry states?

While there has been plenty of good news lately to rejoice about in the Obama camp, they have also noticed some slippage in places where losing would be disastrous.  Moderate leads in PA, MI, MN, and WI have slipped to razor thin margins (1-3 points) according to a couple of recent polls.  Two polls in PA show the race tied and one in MN reveals similar results. It will be interesting to see if state polling catches up to the latest round of national polls.

3.  Is there a page two of the Palin story?

The love affair is over, and Palin's favorable numbers have fallen like a rock. With each passing day, there's another news story about Palin.  And the news is not good [see more]. Page 3? Page 4? The number gurus at Fivethirtyeight.com answer this question thoroughly.

McCain's other problem is that Sarah Palin may no longer be an asset to the ticket; in fact, she may be a liability. Averaging the candidates' favorability scores across four recent polls -- as one should always try and do when looking at favorability numbers since they can vary greatly depending on question wording -- Palin now has the worst net scores among the four principals in the race:


Palin's average favorability score is now a +7 -- about 10 points behind Joe Biden's numbers. Perhaps more importantly, these numbers are 10-15 points behind where Palin's numbers were just a week or so ago. If voters come in not knowing very much about a candidate -- and the more they see of the candidate, the less they like of the candidate -- this is a major concern.

Battleground States

Several projection models around the country this week show large numbers of tossup states. Our model is based on an analysis of several polls as opposed to a knee-jerk reaction to just one or two. For example, we've decided to keep Minnesota in the Obama column for the moment because of national movement favoring him. Even more, McCain has never led in Minnesota. New Hampshire follows the same pattern where just two polls have been conducted since the close of the RNC. One recent poll shows McCain leading by three; however, that is his first lead in NH since May. If trends develop, we'll make adjustments.

What's happening in Pennyslvania?

Two polls in PA since last week show the race as dead even: Rasmussen and Big 10 Battleground. This flies in the face of recent national polling. This may be the result of both polls being conducted before the Wallstreet Crisis. Obama may need to call in Bill and Hillary to help bring "lunch bucket Democrats" into the fold. Biden, from PA, also plays a role in securing PA's 21 electoral votes.  We'll move PA to tossup if any other polling suggests the race as tied or McCain leading.

Rockin' Pollin' Ohio

Unless something breaks for one side or the other, we may just keep Ohio in the tossup column until our last projection. Both sides have reasons to be cautiously optimistic.  For McCain, there have been eight polls conducted in the last three days, six of which he's leading.  Obama is hoping for some traction after two consecutive polls show him leading here.  Neither candidate has been able to break the race wide open, and it's unlikely either will.  More polls have been conducted in Ohio than any other state since the party conventions ended (13 since September 9th).  Obama can claim the White House simply by winning Ohio and hanging on to the Kerry states.

Meet Virginia Tossup

All year long, polling has suggested a tight race in Virginia.  All the sudden, we have numbers all over the place. In the past week, the race has been shown to be anywhere from Obama leading by two to McCain leading by nine. Two polls show the race as tied.

Colorado & New Mexico (Obama's Backup)

The best news of the week for Obama may be that he's still protecting his lead in Colorado and expanding his lead in New Mexico. In Colorado, voters have been surveyed seven times since the close of the RNC, and Obama has led in five of those polls by an average of four points. He's also led in the last two consecutive polls, one by ten points. In New Mexico, Obama has led in three consecutive polls by seven or eight points.

45 Days...

We are at another turning point in the campaign where Obama has an opportunity to extend his lead. McCain's gaffes and flipflops could be catching up to him.  Palin's plunge isn't helping either. If national numbers continue to hold up for Obama, will the battlegrounds show equal movement? 

While it's clear there's been a momentum shift back in Obama's favor, one week is a lifetime in American politics.  The last time McCain needed a jolt to his campaign, he shocked everyone with Palin. If at some point, the campaign begins to slip away, he may just pull another fast one. 

Looking to next week, John McCain probably can't wait until the first debate, which will focus on foreign policy and national security. He's proven, thus far, to be a better speaker than many thought he'd be in the forums we've seen so far. The expectations won't be high for McCain so even a mediocre performance is sure to get high marks from his surrogates (Ditto Palin). 

Next Friday's debate between Obama and McCain, moderated by Jim Lehrer, begins at 9:00 pm EST and can be watched on most major networks.  Third party candidates will not be included as none have reached a 15% minimum polling requirement (in five polls) as mandated by the Commission on Presidential Debates.

National Polling Update: Static, Static, Static!

Now that the most condensed two weeks of Presidential campaign action have passed, I think it’s worth revisiting, briefly, the state of the race.

* Obama did get a bounce from his convention. However, it was obviously shortened and truncated by the Palin announcement on Friday and the GOP convention the following week, which made some uninformed “journalists” write nonsense stories.

* McCain did get a bounce, and a good one (there is an inherent advantage to having your convention last, as both 2000 and 2004 show). There’s no denying that, but…it has receded the last few days.

* In fact, as I have stated numerous times, that race seems…well, static. McCain’s national numbers have come back to earth and are basically were they were before Senator Obama picked Joe Biden. The Rasmussen and Gallup tracks are basically where they were at three weeks ago, and the new Diageo/Hotline and R2K/Kos tracks have the race reverting back to a four point Obama advantage, and the trendline in all four polls has shown a three or four point swing to Obama in the last few days.

* While it’s too soon to tell what the impending economic crisis will mean to the campaign, Obama has shown strength in poll samples the last couple nights. But most importantly, in the Hotline tracking poll, Obama has gone from a two point advantage on the issue of the economy last Friday to an eleven point advantage today. He also now enjoys a 57-33% lead on the question of which candidate “better understands people like you?” Also in the Hotline poll is the nugget that Obama has opened up a twelve point lead on energy, up from just four a few days ago.

* Palin’s favorable rating has collapsed: Last week, Hotline’s fav/unfav rating for her was a robust 48-24%, now it’s merely a 47-36%. Whereas the R2K/Kos poll has her rating down to 45-44%, a net swing of 13% since Friday.

* John Sidney McCain III’s has too: His ridiculous and discredited attacks have brought his favorability rating from 56-43% on Friday to today’s 49-45%. Whereas Obama’s has stayed stable from a 57-41% to 54-37%. John McCain’s strengths have always relied on his character and personal “integrity;” and once that is gone, he’s just another generic Republican candidate.

Since state polling often lags behind (mostly due to the low volume of it compared to national polls) it’s still hard to tell how they have been affected. But there is some anecdotal evidence (such as Virginia going back into a tie or a small Obama lead) that Obama has bounced back in many swing states. But let there be no question, the race is where it was, and where it’s always been. A tight race but one whose fundamental dynamics and state favors Barack Obama.

Five New National Polls Show Obama Bounce

Five new national polls were released today. Here they are, as summarized by RealClearPolitics.com:

Gallup Tracking:    Obama 50, McCain 42                  Obama  +8

Rasmussen Tracking:    Obama 51, McCain 45          Obama  +6

USA Today/Gallup:    Obama 50, McCain 43              Obama  +7

Hotline/FD:    Obama 48, McCain 39                           Obama  +9

CBS News:    Obama 48, McCain 40                              Obama  +8

Looking good (for now).