Showing posts with label Biden. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Biden. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Biden In Ocala, Florida
From our ElectBlue Florida Correspondent (aka Mom), pictures of Joe Biden in Ocala, Florida yesterday (story).
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Moose Voter Update: Antlers Over Anchorage
It has been just over two weeks since we published our first analysis of the moose voter's role in the 2008 Presidential election. A flurry of new polls in moose belt states, some interesting anecdotal information and, most importantly, the results of ElectBlue's own exclusive Moose Voter Focus Group, all cry out for an update.
First, a bit of a refresher. Moose voters are found in states with naturally occurring populations of wild moose. There are thirteen states in what we like to call the 'moose belt': ME, NH, VT, NY, MI, WI, MN, CO, MT, ID, WA, OR and AK.
As we noted in our initial piece, moose voters have numerous characteristics in common. They are uncommonly fond of cold weather, own lots of heavy winter clothing, love riding around in snow mobiles and are positively addicted to ice fishing. They prefer Molson to Budweiser, almost always drive American cars and are politically very independent.
The latest polls in several moose belt states indicate increasing support for Democrat Barack Obama. Since our last review, Obama and VP nominee Joe Biden, have widened their lead over John McCain and running mate, Sarah 'Moose-Huntin' Mama' Palin, in no less than seven moose belt states: NH, MI, MN, WI, CO, WA and OR. The Democratic ticket maintains previously strong leads in ME, VT and NY. The GOP duo are ahead in only three of the moose states: MT, ID and Palin's own AK. Even here there are signs of trouble, however, as some recent polls and a few local pundits are suggesting a tightening race in Montana. Not good news for the Mavericks.
The internals of recent moose belt polls show what we see in other parts of the country: economic worries are making moose voters ever more blue. This information is particularly worrisome for Republicans since it is a well known fact that the typical moose voter can endure temperatures far below zero without turning blue. The realization that moose belt voters can so easily go blue politically has top GOP strategists in a dither. There are scattered reports of moose-inspired panic attacks at the RNC in recent days. ElectBlue has been unable, however, to verify these reports.
- sales of heavy flannel shirts and fur-lined parkas are way up, while the snow mobile market has collapsed right across the whole region. Moose voters are clearly trying to hedge against anticipated soaring home-heating costs and high gasoline prices.
Finally, there is this astonishing finding from ElectBlue's exclusive Moose Voter Focus Group. In addition to concerns about the economy, moose belt voters are worried about the national security implications of a GOP White House win. It seems that many moose voters have heard ugly rumors that Sarah Palin, busy campaigning in the lower forty-eight, has been neglecting her responsibilities to protect Alaskan airspace from Russian incursions. Last week there were even reports of Russian MIGs being spotted as far south as Spokane and Boise. (ElectBlue cannot confirm these rumors. Calls to the Department of Homeland Security about these reports have gone unanswered.) Naturally, moose voters are unnerved by the thought of what might happen if Palin were to move to Washington for four years. Who would scan the northern skies, keeping an eye out for those pesky Russians?
(For the record, our Moose Voter Focus Group was conducted last Friday evening at Olaf's Bait Shop and Seafood Grill, located a few miles north of Red Lake, MN. It's a friendly, folksy kind of place with lots of Scandinavian charm. Our voter focus group consisted of about a dozen local patrons, a few Canadian tourists and some guy asking directions to Minneapolis.)
The bottom line, electorally speaking, remains unchanged from two weeks ago. Obama-Biden will sweep the moose belt on November 4th, racking up at least 107 of the region's 117 electoral votes. If current trends continue, the Democrats will win these states not just by a landslide, but by a veritable moose-slide.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Quote of the Day
Speaking about the McCain health care plan at tonight's Vice-Presidential debate, Senator Joe Biden nailed it:
"...now that's what I call the ultimate bridge to nowhere."
InstaPolls: Biden Wins Debate
The first two instaPolls about tonight's Vice-Presidential debate are out. Both give a clear win to Joe Biden over Sarah Palin.
CBS: Biden, 46%, Palin 21%, draw 33%, among undecided voters.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
The Moose Vote: Obama, not Mama
Many of us hardcore political junkies spend a lot time every election cycle pouring over hundreds of polls, trolling for every bit of information we can find. There is typically a lot of focus on various groups of voters, identified by gender, race, age, geography, education level, income bracket, etc. This so-called identity politics has also become a staple of the chattering classes on cable TV and in the print media.
It's become the fashion to give these voting blocs catchy little labels so we don't have to go through long descriptions (or - God forbid! - offer proof of their existence) to make our point. Think of CNN's John King, who can hardly get through a recap of the latest poll without at least one reference to "lunch-bucket Democrats". Then there is MSNBC's Chris Matthews, waxing poetic over the "white, blue-collar, Catholic, working class voters" of Pennsylvania. And, of course, there are the universally invoked "Reagan Democrats". You know the drill.
Thanks to the selection of Sarah Palin as the Republican VP candidate, we at ElectBlue have identified a group of voters who have been all but ignored by the mainstream media. So, we're going to correct that oversight here and now. These are what we call moose voters.
Moose voters live in states with naturally-occurring populations of wild moose. In spite of wide differences in location, education, income, race, gender, etc., these voters have a lot in common. They share a a fondness for cold weather, own lots of heavy winter clothing, love riding around in snow mobiles and are addicted to ice fishing. They typically prefer Molson to Budweiser, drive American cars and have a very independent political streak.
There are thirteen states in what we like to call the moose belt: ME, NH, VT, NY, MI, WI, MN, CO, MT, ID, WA, OR and, of course, AK. So how is the presidential race shaking out with moose voters this election? In a word, it's not even close - even though the results may be a bit surprising to many.
Barack Obama and running mate Joe Biden have a commanding lead over John McCain and Sarah ("Moose Huntin' Mama") Palin. Of the thirteen states in the moose belt, Obama-Biden currently lead in ten: ME, NH, VT, NY, MI, WI, MN, CO, WA and OR. Only three states - MT, ID and AK - look safe for the McCain-Palin ticket. In the race for moose state electoral votes, Obama-Biden are crushing McCain-Palin, 107 to 10.
Of course, things can and do change in an election campaign. We at ElectBlue are committed to follow developments in the moose belt. We will bring you updates as warranted.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
National Polling Update: Static, Static, Static!
Now that the most condensed two weeks of Presidential campaign action have passed, I think it’s worth revisiting, briefly, the state of the race.
* Obama did get a bounce from his convention. However, it was obviously shortened and truncated by the Palin announcement on Friday and the GOP convention the following week, which made some uninformed “journalists” write nonsense stories.
* McCain did get a bounce, and a good one (there is an inherent advantage to having your convention last, as both 2000 and 2004 show). There’s no denying that, but…it has receded the last few days.
* In fact, as I have stated numerous times, that race seems…well, static. McCain’s national numbers have come back to earth and are basically were they were before Senator Obama picked Joe Biden. The Rasmussen and Gallup tracks are basically where they were at three weeks ago, and the new Diageo/Hotline and R2K/Kos tracks have the race reverting back to a four point Obama advantage, and the trendline in all four polls has shown a three or four point swing to Obama in the last few days.
* While it’s too soon to tell what the impending economic crisis will mean to the campaign, Obama has shown strength in poll samples the last couple nights. But most importantly, in the Hotline tracking poll, Obama has gone from a two point advantage on the issue of the economy last Friday to an eleven point advantage today. He also now enjoys a 57-33% lead on the question of which candidate “better understands people like you?” Also in the Hotline poll is the nugget that Obama has opened up a twelve point lead on energy, up from just four a few days ago.
* Palin’s favorable rating has collapsed: Last week, Hotline’s fav/unfav rating for her was a robust 48-24%, now it’s merely a 47-36%. Whereas the R2K/Kos poll has her rating down to 45-44%, a net swing of 13% since Friday.
* John Sidney McCain III’s has too: His ridiculous and discredited attacks have brought his favorability rating from 56-43% on Friday to today’s 49-45%. Whereas Obama’s has stayed stable from a 57-41% to 54-37%. John McCain’s strengths have always relied on his character and personal “integrity;” and once that is gone, he’s just another generic Republican candidate.
Since state polling often lags behind (mostly due to the low volume of it compared to national polls) it’s still hard to tell how they have been affected. But there is some anecdotal evidence (such as Virginia going back into a tie or a small Obama lead) that Obama has bounced back in many swing states. But let there be no question, the race is where it was, and where it’s always been. A tight race but one whose fundamental dynamics and state favors Barack Obama.
* Obama did get a bounce from his convention. However, it was obviously shortened and truncated by the Palin announcement on Friday and the GOP convention the following week, which made some uninformed “journalists” write nonsense stories.
* McCain did get a bounce, and a good one (there is an inherent advantage to having your convention last, as both 2000 and 2004 show). There’s no denying that, but…it has receded the last few days.
* In fact, as I have stated numerous times, that race seems…well, static. McCain’s national numbers have come back to earth and are basically were they were before Senator Obama picked Joe Biden. The Rasmussen and Gallup tracks are basically where they were at three weeks ago, and the new Diageo/Hotline and R2K/Kos tracks have the race reverting back to a four point Obama advantage, and the trendline in all four polls has shown a three or four point swing to Obama in the last few days.
* While it’s too soon to tell what the impending economic crisis will mean to the campaign, Obama has shown strength in poll samples the last couple nights. But most importantly, in the Hotline tracking poll, Obama has gone from a two point advantage on the issue of the economy last Friday to an eleven point advantage today. He also now enjoys a 57-33% lead on the question of which candidate “better understands people like you?” Also in the Hotline poll is the nugget that Obama has opened up a twelve point lead on energy, up from just four a few days ago.
* Palin’s favorable rating has collapsed: Last week, Hotline’s fav/unfav rating for her was a robust 48-24%, now it’s merely a 47-36%. Whereas the R2K/Kos poll has her rating down to 45-44%, a net swing of 13% since Friday.
* John Sidney McCain III’s has too: His ridiculous and discredited attacks have brought his favorability rating from 56-43% on Friday to today’s 49-45%. Whereas Obama’s has stayed stable from a 57-41% to 54-37%. John McCain’s strengths have always relied on his character and personal “integrity;” and once that is gone, he’s just another generic Republican candidate.
Since state polling often lags behind (mostly due to the low volume of it compared to national polls) it’s still hard to tell how they have been affected. But there is some anecdotal evidence (such as Virginia going back into a tie or a small Obama lead) that Obama has bounced back in many swing states. But let there be no question, the race is where it was, and where it’s always been. A tight race but one whose fundamental dynamics and state favors Barack Obama.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Electoral Update - Waitin' for the Bounce
If you still hold doubts about Barack Obama's toughness, you clearly missed his acceptance speech. After McCain attacked Obama's patriotism, the gloves had to come off.
After gaining on Obama throughout August, polls are now suggesting a sputter in the McCain attack strategy.
Today's tracking polls reveal a serious gain for Obama. Gallup's tracking poll shows Obama now with an eight point lead, and Rasmussen gives him a four point favor. This is a much different picture than where we were during the middle of August when these two flagship polls suggested the race to be much closer.
Although there are scattered indications that Obama will get a significant bounce from his selection of Biden and the Democratic Convention, there are not yet credible polls from swing states to make any changes in our projection this week. Not enough polling data is available yet to move any of our swing states in either direction.
A new Mason Dixon poll now shows Obama with a 1% lead in Florida. Although within the margin of error, the poll is significant because, until now, McCain had led in every poll this month. We're keeping Florida in the McCain column for now until more polling is released.
Two of the last three polls in Colorado show Obama leading again. Suffolk puts Obama up by five while CNN shows McCain leading by one.
PPP shows Obama now leading in Virginia by 2%, and Obama is stretching his lead in New Mexico. The race in Ohio is still a dead heat. Nevada is on the verge of turning blue again as Obama has led in the last two consecutive polls.
Alaska's three electoral votes may be in the bag for McCain with Palin now on the ticket. We'll wait to see as more data becomes available. The same can be said about Pennsylvania with Biden on board. Overall, it's too early to see how much momentum Obama will have going into next week's Republican Convention. I suspect Obama's numbers will shift in his favor in every swing state, especially Colorado and Ohio. Republicans will have a very hard time equaling the Democratic show we saw this week.
Sunday, August 24, 2008
Change Worth Fighting For
The chattering classes are swarming around the notion of a new Obama campaign strategy to go negative now that Joe Biden is on the ticket. Pundits have already speculated that independents and moderates who've bought into Obama's hope of "change we can believe in" will be deflated if such assumptions turn out to be true. Young voters, perhaps, will then write off 2008 as just another politics as usual campaign.
Not so fast.
Americans don't want to vote for someone who refuses to fight back! Let's not forget who started throwing punches to begin with. We could stomach the Paris and Britney ads, and some of us thought the Moses ad was even humorous.
But when John McCain launched his Rovebomb assertion that Obama would rather lose the war in Iraq than lose the election, the gloves had to come off. John McCain, a so-called maverick, accused a sitting US Senator of putting an election above winning a war, de facto treason. If that's not attacking his patriotism, nothing is.
In another example of going negative first, a McCain television ad accusing Obama of supporting a tax increase on those making $42,000 was nothing short of a lie. It wasn't "misleading." Not a "misrepresentation." Not a "misstatement." It was a lie.
Our federal government is a filthy wreck after eight years of George Bush. And the McCain campaign represents the dirty mess that Washington D.C. is in as a result. The cleanup Washington needs will take a relentless string of hard-hitting punches from Obama and Biden as they counter the smear and lies from the GOP. That's not negative campaigning in my opinion. It's fighting for change we can believe in.
With so much at stake, you can bet your sweet bippy there will indeed be a fight. Republicans brought this one on themselves, all by themselves. We cannot afford one more day, let alone four more years of the same failed policies of George W. Bush. I predict 2008 to be an all-out political war of the ages. With millions of supporters standing firm behind them, Barack Obama and Joe Biden aren't alone as they lead the battle to restore dignity and honor to our broken government.
Saturday, August 23, 2008
Hillary Weighs In On Biden Pick
Early this morning, Senator Hillary Clinton issued this statement about Obama's selection of Biden as his Vice-Presidential nominee:
In naming my colleague and friend, Joe Biden, to be the vice presidential nominee, Barack Obama has continued in the best traditions for the vice presidency by selecting an exceptionally strong, experienced leader and devoted public servant. Senator Biden will be a purposeful and dynamic vice president who will help Senator Obama both win the presidency and govern this great country.
Well said Senator Clinton. I hope your supporters are listening.
Friday, August 22, 2008
Media Reports All Point to Biden as VP
Reports from several major media outlets all point to Delaware Senator Joe Biden as Barack Obama's choice of a running mate:
- several hours ago, NBC News' Andrea Mitchell reported she had learned that both VA Governor Tim Kaine and Indiana Senator Evan Bayh had been informed by the Obama campaign that neither would be be the Democratic Veep nominee;
- two hours later, CNN confirmed the same information: Kaine and Bayh were out;
- within the past hour, ABC News is reporting that a detail of US Secret Service agents have been dispatched to Biden's Delaware home.
This is looking more and more conclusive. It seems a near certainty now that Biden is the man. Of course, it's worthwhile noting that each of the major news organizations have been wrong before, but the the chances of someone other than Biden being tapped for the Democratic Vice-Presidential slot seem very remote indeed.
Why doesn't my cell phone have a text message yet?
Monday, August 18, 2008
Then There Were Three?
The New York Times is reporting, what most of us have deducted over the past couple weeks, that Senator Obama's decision on a Vice President is imminent and has "virtually decided," whom the pick will be. They also report that the decision likely to come as early as Wednesday morning and that the list has been narrowed down to three: Senators Evan Bayh and Joe Biden as well as Governor Tim Kaine.
This is not particularly news, other than the fact that names like Kathleen Sebelius and Sam Nunn seems to have taken a backseat to the aforementioned trio. So before all of our cell phones buzz Wednesday morning (or whenever the announcement is sent via text message to all us political junkies), I wanted to briefly talk about these three choices and their potential upsides and drawbacks (especially those not talked about by the media).
Evan Bayh.
The Good: Photogenic, Experienced in multiple offices, well liked by the conservative wing of the party; yet palatable to most of the party, puts Indiana even more in play (the Hoosier State has been a fixation of the Obama campaign), strong and early supporter of Hillary Clinton. Geography: Could put the upper Midwest in the bag for Obama
The Not-so-good: Likely forfeits a Senate seat, has a reputation for being bland, and picking him would look extremely safe and political in nature.
A few questions: Is picking a son of a legendary U.S. Senator the best way to present your message of change? Is he a better candidate on paper than in practice? Is geographical balance still important? If so, how will an all Midwest ticket play?
Bottom-line: Bayh is the "safest" pick for Obama, yet still very attractive. The imagery of a young running mate would make a great photo-op. I still ultimately don't think Obama risks a Senate seat (nor do I think Bayh is Obama's top choice for the job) and the charges of being too safe in his selection.
Joe Biden.
The Good: Well-liked, a great debater and attack dog, strong foreign policy credentials, has a moderate profile, and is somewhat well-known and nationally vetted. Could help with Catholics and could put his birth state of Pennsylvania in the bank.
Not-so-good: His Mouth, Delaware is already safely in the Democratic column, questions about health, his position on Iraq.
A few questions: Can Obama claim to be an agent of change while putting a thirty-six year Senator on the ticket? He's 65 years old and had two brain aneurysms over twenty years ago. Could the Biden-Iraq partition plan be a liability? Does he make Obama seem small by comparison a la Lloyd Bentsen? Would picking him be a subtle signal that Obama is not over-sensitive to racial remarks?
Bottom Line: Biden, while he could contradict Obama's message of change, makes perfect sense as a running mate. During the primaries he was a happy warrior against Rudy Giulani and other Republicans. Yes, his mouth is problematic, but could make things lively and would bring even more energy to the ticket. Could be the compromise candidate for Obama between head (Bayh) and heart (Kaine).
Tim Kaine.
The Good: Fits perfectly with Obama's message, Governor of key swing state (Virginia), Helps with Catholics and religious voters, energetic, and has perfect chemistry with Obama. Would provide a great photo-op.
The Not-so-good: Vulnerable to accusations of inexperience, forfeits Governorship to a Republican for 12 months, not a favorite among women's groups and labor, while popular he is no Mark Warner.
Questions: Is Denver going to be too Virginia centric with Mark Warner keynoting? Kaine's electoral win in Virginia was based more in Richmond/No. Va. rather than Warner's rural strategy and does he help that much in VA in light of that? Was he too accessible the last month? I can't imagine all those leaks and interviews made Team Chicago too happy...
The Bottom Line: He is clearly, politics aside, Obama's preferred governing partner (they share a similar history, Kaine was an early backer of his, and their message is largely the same). But in light of the events in Eastern Europe and some slight poll tightening will Obama pick a more tested running mate like Biden or Bayh?
Biden and Kaine seem more likely right now than Bayh (though myself and Stephen Moody are looking for good recipe books just in case...) or a dark horse. I don't know who he picks, but I definitely feel it is either Biden or Kaine. But I'll be impatiently waiting by my phone in the meantime...
But remember as William Goldman said, "No one knows anything," and I think we all remember this (though in retrospect it might not have been the worst idea in the world):
This is not particularly news, other than the fact that names like Kathleen Sebelius and Sam Nunn seems to have taken a backseat to the aforementioned trio. So before all of our cell phones buzz Wednesday morning (or whenever the announcement is sent via text message to all us political junkies), I wanted to briefly talk about these three choices and their potential upsides and drawbacks (especially those not talked about by the media).
Evan Bayh.
The Good: Photogenic, Experienced in multiple offices, well liked by the conservative wing of the party; yet palatable to most of the party, puts Indiana even more in play (the Hoosier State has been a fixation of the Obama campaign), strong and early supporter of Hillary Clinton. Geography: Could put the upper Midwest in the bag for Obama
The Not-so-good: Likely forfeits a Senate seat, has a reputation for being bland, and picking him would look extremely safe and political in nature.
A few questions: Is picking a son of a legendary U.S. Senator the best way to present your message of change? Is he a better candidate on paper than in practice? Is geographical balance still important? If so, how will an all Midwest ticket play?
Bottom-line: Bayh is the "safest" pick for Obama, yet still very attractive. The imagery of a young running mate would make a great photo-op. I still ultimately don't think Obama risks a Senate seat (nor do I think Bayh is Obama's top choice for the job) and the charges of being too safe in his selection.
Joe Biden.
The Good: Well-liked, a great debater and attack dog, strong foreign policy credentials, has a moderate profile, and is somewhat well-known and nationally vetted. Could help with Catholics and could put his birth state of Pennsylvania in the bank.
Not-so-good: His Mouth, Delaware is already safely in the Democratic column, questions about health, his position on Iraq.
A few questions: Can Obama claim to be an agent of change while putting a thirty-six year Senator on the ticket? He's 65 years old and had two brain aneurysms over twenty years ago. Could the Biden-Iraq partition plan be a liability? Does he make Obama seem small by comparison a la Lloyd Bentsen? Would picking him be a subtle signal that Obama is not over-sensitive to racial remarks?
Bottom Line: Biden, while he could contradict Obama's message of change, makes perfect sense as a running mate. During the primaries he was a happy warrior against Rudy Giulani and other Republicans. Yes, his mouth is problematic, but could make things lively and would bring even more energy to the ticket. Could be the compromise candidate for Obama between head (Bayh) and heart (Kaine).
Tim Kaine.
The Good: Fits perfectly with Obama's message, Governor of key swing state (Virginia), Helps with Catholics and religious voters, energetic, and has perfect chemistry with Obama. Would provide a great photo-op.
The Not-so-good: Vulnerable to accusations of inexperience, forfeits Governorship to a Republican for 12 months, not a favorite among women's groups and labor, while popular he is no Mark Warner.
Questions: Is Denver going to be too Virginia centric with Mark Warner keynoting? Kaine's electoral win in Virginia was based more in Richmond/No. Va. rather than Warner's rural strategy and does he help that much in VA in light of that? Was he too accessible the last month? I can't imagine all those leaks and interviews made Team Chicago too happy...
The Bottom Line: He is clearly, politics aside, Obama's preferred governing partner (they share a similar history, Kaine was an early backer of his, and their message is largely the same). But in light of the events in Eastern Europe and some slight poll tightening will Obama pick a more tested running mate like Biden or Bayh?
Biden and Kaine seem more likely right now than Bayh (though myself and Stephen Moody are looking for good recipe books just in case...) or a dark horse. I don't know who he picks, but I definitely feel it is either Biden or Kaine. But I'll be impatiently waiting by my phone in the meantime...
But remember as William Goldman said, "No one knows anything," and I think we all remember this (though in retrospect it might not have been the worst idea in the world):
Friday, July 25, 2008
A Sneak Peak at the Veep...
With Senator Obama's travels about to come to an end, I imagine the Veep guessing game will soon be underway full steam. In spite of the opinions of many of the talking media heads on cable TV, here are a few oft-mentioned VP choices for the Dems that I think are very long shots:
1. Sen. Evan Bayh (IN);
2. Sen. Jack Reed (RI);
3. Sen. Chris Dodd (CT).
All three of these sitting Democratic senators represent states with incumbent Republican governors. I don't think Sen. Harry Reid (NV), Senate Majority Leader, or Sen. Chuck Schumer (NY), head of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, would be any too happy about surrendering a senate seat that is sure to be taken by a Republican if the Obama ticket wins. Count Bayh, Reed and Dodd out.
Also mentioned often but equally unlikely to get the VP nod:
1. Gov. Bill Richardson (NM);
2. Sen. Chuck Hagel (NE).
Richardson's very public break with the Clintons during the primary left a lot of bitter feelings that make him a high-risk choice for Obama. Hagel, as indicated by the red font used for his name, is a Republican. Although he has been good on the Iraq War, Hagel's otherwise very conservative record makes him unacceptable to important constituencies in the Democratic Party. No way on either of these guys.
So, where does that leave us? There are three choices for Obama's VP that seem very viable. Each of them could bring as much to the Democratic ticket as any vice-presidential candidate is likely to do:
1. Sen. Hillary Clinton (NY). Yep, she's still on my list. She carries a lot of baggage for sure, but she probably has a lot more good baggage than bad.
2. Fmr. Sen. Sam Nunn (GA). He has tons of foreign policy experience and that re-assuring Southern accent that many Independents and moderate Republicans find so appealing. Nunn has some repair work to do with the powerful pro-choice and gay rights elements in the Democratic Party, but he could probably placate those groups with a well-timed 'death-bed' conversion on issues vital to them.
3. Sen. Joe Biden (DE). He also brings lots of foreign policy expertise, a certain gravitas and a well-deserved reputation as a fiery (to put it mildly) campaigner. The later, in fact, may be his biggest liability.
It's early days yet but that's where I see it right now.
1. Sen. Evan Bayh (IN);
2. Sen. Jack Reed (RI);
3. Sen. Chris Dodd (CT).
All three of these sitting Democratic senators represent states with incumbent Republican governors. I don't think Sen. Harry Reid (NV), Senate Majority Leader, or Sen. Chuck Schumer (NY), head of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, would be any too happy about surrendering a senate seat that is sure to be taken by a Republican if the Obama ticket wins. Count Bayh, Reed and Dodd out.
Also mentioned often but equally unlikely to get the VP nod:
1. Gov. Bill Richardson (NM);
2. Sen. Chuck Hagel (NE).
Richardson's very public break with the Clintons during the primary left a lot of bitter feelings that make him a high-risk choice for Obama. Hagel, as indicated by the red font used for his name, is a Republican. Although he has been good on the Iraq War, Hagel's otherwise very conservative record makes him unacceptable to important constituencies in the Democratic Party. No way on either of these guys.
So, where does that leave us? There are three choices for Obama's VP that seem very viable. Each of them could bring as much to the Democratic ticket as any vice-presidential candidate is likely to do:
1. Sen. Hillary Clinton (NY). Yep, she's still on my list. She carries a lot of baggage for sure, but she probably has a lot more good baggage than bad.
2. Fmr. Sen. Sam Nunn (GA). He has tons of foreign policy experience and that re-assuring Southern accent that many Independents and moderate Republicans find so appealing. Nunn has some repair work to do with the powerful pro-choice and gay rights elements in the Democratic Party, but he could probably placate those groups with a well-timed 'death-bed' conversion on issues vital to them.
3. Sen. Joe Biden (DE). He also brings lots of foreign policy expertise, a certain gravitas and a well-deserved reputation as a fiery (to put it mildly) campaigner. The later, in fact, may be his biggest liability.
It's early days yet but that's where I see it right now.
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