Dole Out - Kay Hagan In

The state-run media (aka Fox News) is projecting Kay Hagan to be the newest US Senator from North Carolina.  Liddy Dole has officially been fired.

ElectBlue congratulates Kay Hagan, her family and her campaign staff!

Palin Likes to Visit Pro-America States

The Washington Post's Juliet Eilperin reports this morning that Republican VP nominee Sarah Palin says she "loves to visit pro-America" areas of the country like North Carolina.

Hmmm...  I wonder if anyone pointed out to the moose-huntin' mama that North Carolina, along with ten other states (and parts of two others), seceded from the United States and waged a long bloody war against America?

You know, just wondering...

Electoral Update - McCain 100% Negative 100% Desperate

Election Day can't come soon enough for Democrats, and Republicans are wishing they had more time. 

Despite the catastrophic downturn in the American economy, John McCain isn't talking about it. Instead, his campaign has turned nearly 100% negative. Barack Obama and Joe Biden on the other hand have kept their focus on the economy. Speaking at a rally in Chillicothe, Ohio just moments ago, Obama declared:

“This is not a time for ideology–- it’s a time for common sense and a politics of pragmatism…. I believe that we can steer ourselves out of this crisis because I believe in this country.” While Obama continues addressing the concerns of the nation, McCain keeps playing a guilt by association game of politics. 

One week ago we asked whether or not the slow motion collapse of John McCain's campaign would accelerate, slow down or stop. As you can tell from the electoral map, nothing has improved for John McCain. In fact, in this week's electoral projection Ohio shifts from tossup to leans Obama. Five of the last six polls show Obama leading in Ohio including the last three consecutive. With Ohio's 20 electoral votes now in the Obama column, he now leads John McCain 353 - 174. The  lone tossup state in this week's projection is Missouri.

The decision to leave North Carolina in the Obama column this week was a tough one. Some projections have put the Tar Heel state back into the tossup column because of a Survey USA poll released this week. CNN also shows the race as tied; however, three polls in the last week show Obama leading. Two of them have Obama leading by five or six points. We will move North Carolina to tossup status if other polls show McCain leading. If McCain is indeed bouncing back in North Carolina, the question to be answered is why.

Obama's Ceiling

Obama is approaching his electoral ceiling, which we put at 365  electoral votes (add Missouri plus one EC vote from Nebraska).  To get beyond the 365 mark, Obama will have to steal Indiana and Georgia, no easy task. If the rapid decline in McCain's national numbers extends into next week, Indiana very well could fall back into the tossup column too. McCain's double digit margins are gone in Georgia and they continue to fall. Some are already talking about an Obama upset in Georgia because of an expected surge in African-American voters. 

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Nate Silver examines both candidate's favorable and unfavorable ratings since the Ayers attacks began. His analysis:

OBAMA

Pollster             Favorable      Unfavorable
Rasmussen     10/3     57              42
Rasmussen     10/8     56 (-1)         42 (n/c)

Pollster             Favorable      Unfavorable
Research 2K   10/3     59              32
Research 2K   10/8     57 (-2)         33 (+1)

Pollster             Favorable      Unfavorable
Hotline       10/3     58              36
Hotline       10/8     56 (-2)         39 (+3)

Pollster             Favorable     Unfavorable
Average       10/3     58.0            36.7
Average       10/8     56.3 (-1.7)     38.0 (+1.3)

MCCAIN

Pollster             Favorable   Unfavorable
Rasmussen     10/3     52          45
Rasmussen     10/8     52 (n/c)    46 (+1)

Pollster             Favorable   Unfavorable
Research 2K   10/3     41          45
Research 2K   10/8     44 (+3)     49 (+4)

Pollster             Favorable   Unfavorable
Hotline       10/3     53          40
Hotline       10/8     53 (n/c)    41 (+1)

Pollster             Favorable      Unfavorable
Average       10/3     48.7            43.3
Average       10/8     49.7 (+1.0)     45.3 (+2.0)

Obama's unfavorable number has ticked up a point or so, but so has McCain's. The strategy to preempt the Ayers attack by airing the Keating ads may have paid off. It's unlikely that John McCain will get anywhere without some kind of proof that Ayers or Rezko somehow influenced Obama's political career. While the attacks have rallied a few radicals (see video one and two) who hate Obama, McCain could alienate himself from moderates and independents with unsubstantiated claims.

The verdict is still out on McCain's strategy to go 100% negative. Without a smoking gun as it relates to Ayers, the best John McCain can hope for is to remain competitive in places like NC, OH, MO, and NV. A worse scenario is the one laid out above where he begins losing ground in Indiana and Georgia. It is worth mentioning that McCain gained five points in Indiana in the latest Rasmussen poll.

Virginia and Florida are McCain's nightmares right now. Obama has led in the last four consecutive polls in Virginia by an average of eight points. It's been 44 years since a Democrat carried Virginia. Florida is also becoming an increasing problem for McCain as Obama has now led in every poll this month including a Strategic Vision poll released yesterday which puts him ahead by eight.

Our next update will be on Tuesday when we will examine these questions.

1. Will McCain's negative campaign work or will it backfire? Virginia and Florida haven't budged. 

2. Will polling in North Carolina show a trend back toward John McCain?

3. How long will the negative campaign go on? Will members of his own party begin calling him out for crossing the line?

Dangerous Campaign

There's a difference between a negative campaign and a dangerous one. McCain and Palin are inciting hatred at their rallies by suggesting that Obama has associated himself with terrorists. Bob Cesca writes:

"I think we can conclude that the McCain-Palin ticket is inciting a violent attack on Senator Obama and his family. Here's the reasoning: they say Senator Obama hangs around with terrorists. Therefore he supports terrorists. We're fighting a war against terrorism. So let's fight a war on that one.

I don't think we've ever seen this level of potentially violent form of campaigning in our lifetime, and someone needs to seriously call out McCain on this one."

"Someone needs to step up to McCain -- and especially Palin -- and put a stop to this before someone gets hurt. I can't be more serious about this. McCain and Palin are treading on dangerous ground here."

Obama Outperforming Kerry in Key NC & IN Districts

A few Survey USA polls this morning reveal more very good numbers for Barack Obama.

NORTH CAROLINA District 8 (region just east of Charlotte)

Obama 53

McCain 44

George Bush won district 8 by 9 points in 2004 (54-45)

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INDIANA District 9 (Southern Indiana)

Obama 49

McCain 47

Bush won Indiana district 9 by 19 points in 2004 (59-40)

Also, another Indiana statewide poll this morning shows a 46-46 tie between Obama and McCain.

Absentee Resident Dole

Is it too much to ask that a U.S. Senator actually spend time in their home state? That's the question residents in North Carolina should be asking themselves.

According to official Senate sources, press releases and North Carolina newspaper clips, Dole has spent very little time getting to know North Carolinians since being elected in 2002. Although she was born in North Carolina, she hadn't been a resident for decades until 2001 when she decided to run for the open Jesse Helms' seat.

For 33 years, the Dole's had lived in the prestigious Watergate Apartment Complex before Elizabeth declared her primary residence at her mother's home in North Carolina. Not everyone was thrilled about the idea. The perception of Dole being a carpetbagger was strong even then, although Republicans welcomed her with open arms. The chair of the Republican party had these nice words to say about the new resident.

"She's considered a North Carolinian who's been on duty in Washington for a long time."

Maybe the perception of being a Washington insider served Dole an advantage in 2002, but something tells me that's not the case in 2008.

Bless her heart...

After one term, the long time Washington insider is in a fight for her political life. Recent polls show "Senator Nowhere" trailing lifelong North Carolina resident Kay Hagan, and North Carolinians are taking notice of where Dole really lives this time.  

Let's face it. Some people spend more days on a Smoky Mountain vacation than Dole spends at her primary home in a whole year. According to a study by Media General News Service, in her first five years as Senator Mrs. Dole spent 90% of her time outside of North Carolina.

YEAR	Dole Days In NC	% of year
2003	55	15%
2004	34	9%
2005	20	5%
2006	13	4%
2007	50	14%
2008	97 to date	27%

No wonder North Carolinians are ready to fire Elizabeth Dole. That's usually what happens when you don't show up to work, right?  Help Kay Hagan serve Liddy Dole her pink slip on November 4th by contributing to her campaign today.

Electoral Update - McCain On the Brink of Disaster

John McCain's surge is over. In fact, the opposite effect is taking place.  For the second straight week, John McCain has lost electoral ground. Last week, we moved Virginia from the McCain column to tossup, and this week we're doing the same for North Carolina. Obama's numbers have held very steady for 10 weeks straight, and he now leads John McCain 273-217.  Besides North Carolina (15), Ohio (20) and Virginia (13) are also too close to call. Ohio and Virginia, as promised, will remain as tossups until one candidate gains a clear advantage.

George Bush won North Carolina by more than 12 points in 2000 and 2004, despite John Edwards running as veep on the Democratic ticket. Regardless of this year's outcome, a double-digit win here by either candidate is unlikely. 

It's hard to tell who's coattailing who, but Barack Obama and Kay Hagan both lead their Republican opponents in the latest Rasmussen polling. Both candidates will put a lot of effort into the triangle region and the northeast area of the state where Democrats generally fair well. Read today's analysis of Wake County by PPP.

But Obama will need to do more than just fair well to win.  He will need to best Kerry's performance in 2004 in Mecklenburg/Charlotte (Kerry 52% Bush 48%) and Chatham County where John Kerry beat George Bush by only 5 votes (12,897 - 12,892). While polls show the race as a dead heat, a strong turnout on election day for Democrats could be the leading headline on November 5th.

 

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Last week's electoral projection made mention of a possible John McCain surprise.

"The last time McCain needed a jolt to his campaign, he shocked everyone with Palin. If at some point, the campaign begins to slip away, he may just pull another fast one."

And here we have it. McCain's call to suspend his campaign has everyone wondering whether or not he will attend tonight's debate. In light of  gridlock on bailout, McCain's Hail-Mary, and next Thursday's vice presidential debate, we'll ask a some related questions today and then answer them in next Friday's projection.

1. Will John McCain's appearance (or no-show) in Oxford tonight be a moment of demise or reinvigoration for his campaign?

2. The expectations to perform well are high for Barack Obama. Can he live up to them in the debate.

3. Many people are hoping that a deal on the bailout will be made by Sunday. Will Republicans be able to catch McCain's Hail-Mary pass? Will poll numbers next week show confidence in McCain's role in whatever decisions are made, or will voters see his decisions this week as razzle dazzle, as Chris Matthews put it. Will McCain alienate himself from the conservative base?

4. For more than three weeks, the nation has been captivated by moose hunting mama, Sarah Palin. The expectations haven't been much lower than they are for Palin going into next week's vice presidential debate. Will the viewing audience be left with the impression that Biden was too tough on her? Will the debate even matter?

As always, a week is a lifetime in presidential politics. Just last week, we were talking about how the political landscape was shaping up to look like 2000 and 2004.  This week, when you consider NC and VA as both being tossups, that doesn't seem at all to be the case. 

With just 38 days left until election day, John McCain is on the brink of disaster. Any further setbacks are sure to cost him in places like Ohio, Nevada, and Florida. For him, next week could be the most important week of his political life. For Obama, the opportunity to round another base is at hand, and sliding into home plate on November 4th is shaping up to be more possible now than ever. 

North Carolina: Obama +2

For the first time this year, Barack Obama is leading John McCain in North Carolina. Polls previous to today's survey suggested the race as being dead even. 

Now, Rasmussen shows Obama taking a 49-47 lead in a state where George Bush won by more than 15% in 2004.  No Democrat has won North Carolina since Carter in 1976 , although Clinton lost the state by less than one point in 1992. 

View poll from Rasmussen.

There is a clear enthusiasm gap between those supporting Obama and those supporting McCain.

From the analysis:

"Eighty-one percent (81%) of Obama supporters are voting for their candidate with enthusiasm while 14% are voting primarily against McCain. Those figures have changed little over the past week.

Sixty-five percent (65%) of McCain voters are casting their votes with enthusiasm, up from 62% a week ago. Twenty-seven percent (27%) are voting primarily against Obama, down from 34%."

Rasmussen's analysis did not indicate whether or not the crisis on Wall Street had anything to do with Obama's surge; however, the poll was conducted on September 23rd, before McCain's announcement to suspend his campaign.

Hagan Extends Lead Over Dole

A new Rasmussen poll from North Carolina released yesterday shows Democrat Kay Hagan extending her lead over Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole, 51-46. Both Hagan and Obama have made significant gains in the past month over their Republican opponents. Our current Balance of Power Projection shows the U.S. Senate race as too close to call. 

Hagan Receives Key Endorsement

This press release just in from the Hagan campaign.

GREENSBORO, N.C. - State Senator and U.S. Senate Candidate Kay Hagan (D-Guilford) received the endorsement of the North Carolina Troopers’ Association (NCTA) last week. After a thorough and objective evaluation of the candidates running for U.S. Senate, the group, which works to support the criminal justice system and advance the principles of proper law enforcement, endorsed Kay. The Troopers’ Association cited Kay’s strong record of working on behalf of public safety and working families. During her time in the state Senate, Kay worked to make North Carolina safer by supporting and introducing measures that would crack down on sexual predators, increase safety standards at schools, and allocate adequate funds to control gang activity.

“I am thrilled to receive the endorsement of North Carolina Troopers’ Association,” said Kay. “This is a group of individuals who represent the best of North Carolina, and I am honored to have their vote of confidence going forward in this election. Our state’s troopers work tirelessly to protect North Carolina families and ensure that North Carolina is the safest it can be. Their bravery and dedication are a model for us all. I look forward to doing everything I can to advocate on their behalf once I am in Washington.”

In a letter to Kay, Ron Crawford, President of the NCTA, wrote that Kay is “clearly the most qualified candidate for the U.S. Senate. Your record of supporting Troopers and police officers, of supporting improvements to public safety and for more effective law and order is extraordinary. Our troopers need a strong voice in Washington to lead efforts for legislation to promote Trooper and officer safety. The evidence demonstrates that you are the most qualified candidate to serve in the U.S. Senate.”

Last month, as a part of her “Best Interests, Not the Special Interests” tour, Kay released a comprehensive plan for “Safer Streets and Schools” that presented her commonsense solutions for curbing crime and gang activity. Also in July, Kay received the endorsement of more than half of North Carolina’s Sheriffs.

Kay Hagan In Her Own Words

We are very pleased to post the following blog, sent exclusively to ElectBlue, by Kay Hagan, Democratic candidate for the US Senate from North Carolina. The seat is currently held by Republican Elizabeth Dole. Ms. Hagan writes:

Thank you for giving me the chance to update all the readers at ElectBlue about our campaign. I hope you will also take this chance and visit my website at www.kayhagan.com to learn more, watch our most recent videos and television ads, and tell your friends about my campaign.

Years from now, we’ll look back on this election – the historic turnout, the enthusiasm, the involvement of people from all walks of life, all ages, all over the country – and we’ll fully understand what we were all a part of in 2008.

There’s a groundswell of optimism here in North Carolina – optimism rooted in the fact that this is finally our chance for change, driving the belief that as tough as things may appear, the momentum is finally on our side.

When somebody asks me why I’m running, I tell them it’s because Washington is broken. Gas prices are nearly $4 a gallon; the opportunity to go to college feels farther out of reach; health care costs are putting pressures on every single family; and our economy is on the brink.

And while things are out of balance because the special interests have too much power in Washington, we’ve been doing things right in North Carolina. As a state senator for the past ten years, we’ve worked to increase teacher pay, raise the minimum wage and in my five years as the Budget Committee chair, we balanced our budget every year. Now that’s a far cry from what’s been going on in Washington.

With all due respect to Elizabeth Dole and her 40 years in Washington, she’s out of touch with North Carolinians and has become a reliable rubberstamp for George Bush, having voted with him 92% of the time. As North Carolinians are struggling to make ends meet, Elizabeth Dole continues as if it’s business as usual.

It’s a way of doing business that puts special interests and their lobbyists before working families in North Carolina; gives billions in tax breaks and incentives to oil companies when we’re paying nearly $4 a gallon; rewards companies who send North Carolina jobs overseas; and that’s built an economy structured around benefitting the big corporations while working families foot the bill.

I’m running for this seat because North Carolinians deserve better than Washington’s broken system, and I know I can level the playing field for middle class families. Thank you for your support!

Poll: Hagan Still Leading Dole In NC - Obama gains

A second straight poll in North Carolina shows incumbent Liddy Dole in deep trouble.

Last week, PPP showed Hagan taking a 3 point lead.  Now, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research has released a new poll showing Kay Hagan extending her lead over Dole, 50-45 (48-43 without leaners). Survey in pdf format here.

Key findings:  

•  Just 38% of voters approve of the way Dole is handling her job as a Senator.
  
•  Only 22% of voters in North Carolina believe the nation is on the right track.

Support Kay Hagan today in her campaign to defeat Liddy Dole.  Click here to contribute.

Respondents were also asked about their choice for president.  McCain holds a razor-thin margin over Obama 47-43 (Barr 4%).  Without leaners, the race is tied 43-43.  Bush won North Carolina by 12.5% in 2004 and 13% in 2000.

Key findings:  

• 59% of respondents believe John McCain represents "more of the same."
  
• Voters believe Barack Obama would handle the economy better by a 52-38 margin.
  
• 70% of respondents believe John McCain "supports George Bush's policies."
  
• Obama leads McCain 50-41 on the issue of "building strong alliances with other countries."

Fight back against the GOP Convention lies.  Support Barack Obama today with a $10.00 contribution.