Update on US Senate Races

Three contests for US Senate seats remain undecided as of this writing: 

1. In Alaska, Democratic Mayor Mark Begich of Anchorage trails Republican incumbent (and convicted felon) Ted Stevens by just over three thousand votes. At least 90,000 absentee and early votes remain to be counted. Late-breaking word from the Alaska Division of Elections indicates counting of these votes will begin as early as tomorrow. We shall see.

2. In Minnesota, Democrat Al Franken is some 200 votes behind Republican incumbent Norm Coleman in a race in which more than 2.8 million votes were cast. A legally mandated recount will be conducted, presumably by the end of November. As the recount process seems to be very rigorous and disciplined, the exact timing of the completed recount is not known with certainty at this time.

3. In Georgia, Democratic challenger Jim Martin will face Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss in a run-off on December 2nd. 

All three of these races are critically important to expanding the Democratic majority in the new US Senate. Direct links to the campaign websites for Begich, Franken and Martin are located on the left side of this page. There is also a direct link to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) which can always use your help.

ElectBlue urges our readers to contact these campaigns and offer to help in whatever way possible. Hint: financial contributions are always appropriate. The Georgia run-off will be expensive. The on-going efforts to count all the votes in Alaska and Minnesota will most likely involve costly legal assistance. 

Please help Martin, Franken and Begich today!

Our Work Is Never Finished

A few Senate races are hanging in the balance. At least one will be up in the air for weeks.

• FiveThirtyEight is reporting that Saxby Chambliss did not reach the 50% threshold needed to secure victory last night.  He will have to face Martin again in a December runoff. 

• Just 571 votes separated Norm Coleman and Al Franken when the votes were counted last night in Minnesota. A mandatory recount is underway.

• Ted Stevens is somehow leading Mark Begich up in Alaska. While all the votes haven't been counted, Stevens is leading by more than 3000 votes with 99% reporting.  He's probably headed for victory. Democrats and Republicans are likely to throw Stevens out in January which will require a special election to replace him. And guess which Alaskan Republican is likely to run for his seat?  Mrs. Palin of course! 
  
  Looking further down the road, Palin would then have two years under her belt to run against Obama in the 2012 general.  You can bet ElectBlue will be following this race very closely and supporting Begich against his Republican opponent, whoever s/he is.

We will continue to follow these races as they develop.  Please support Jim Martin, Mark Begich and Al Franken today.

Note to Republicans: Minnesota Isn't Poachable

It seems that every couple years Republicans make a big play late for Minnesota. While the state is much different than the state that voted for the Democratic nominee in 1980, 1984, and 1988, despite anemic nationwide results in those years; the state still has a slight, but significant Democratic lean. George Bush made a big play for the state in both 2000 and 2004, but lost the state by 2 (he was aided by a Nader candidacy that drained 5% off of Gore's total) and 4 points respectively.

In 2006, when vulnerable Democratic Senator Mark Dayton announced his retirement, Republicans were drooling at what they thought would be an easy pickup with the allegedly up and coming Republican Congressman Mark Kennedy. However, the DSCC and Amy Klobuchar went on the air early and defined the race; and she won the race by 20 points and won all but eight of Minnesota's counties.

But going into 2008, Republicans held out hope for the Gopher State, and even decided to hold their convention and the Twin Cities. But as history has shown, Minnesota is quickly becoming a less expensive version of New Jersey for Republicans. As recently as Thursday, McCain’s advisors were citing Minnesota as one of the states they were hoping to poach since Michigan is no longer an option.

Polling has been all over the map in the state, but the heralded Star-Tribune poll (good rule of thumb: When polls are divergent, trust the pollster who polls the state in question with regularity) was released over the weekend showing both Barack Obama and Al Franken opening up significant leads of double digits for both candidates.

Obama leads McCain 55-37% (up from 45-45% early in September in this poll), and Franken has opened up a 43-34% lead (with the independent in the race polling at 18%), a 13 point swing from the last poll that had Brooklyn born Norm Coleman up by four points. Despite McCain vastly outspending Obama in the state, Obama has been able to open up the lead mainly on the back of economic concerns, whereas Franken’s lead in this poll is mainly attributed (by the proprietors of this poll) to attrition of the ad war currently going on in the state (the Minnesota Senate race is the nastiest and the most personal race in the country at the moment). One thing to watch in that Senate race is the number of the independent candidate, Dean Barkley, who is currently polling at 18% and is climbing. If that trend continues, who will he take votes from and if he collapses (as many independents do as election day approaches) who will his votes flow to?

While these poll numbers look good (though this poll has been accused as having a slight Democratic lean), don’t be complacent and help Barack Obama and Al Franken keep Minnesota blue.

New Polls: Support for Key GOP Senators Collapsing

There is a new - and potentially dramatic - finding in three separate US Senate races. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has posted this report on its website:

With the Republican convention in full swing in St. Paul, three new polls from Survey USA show approval ratings for Republican Senators Norm Coleman, Gordon Smith and Mitch McConnell collapsing. In Minnesota, Norm Coleman’s approval has dropped to 44%, with 51% disapproving – an all-time high. In Oregon, Gordon Smith’s job approval has dropped to 38%, with 56% disapproving – his approval rating is at an all time low and has dropped 7 points since last surveyed in May. In Kentucky, Mitch McConnell’s approval has dropped to 44%, with 47% disapproving – his approval rating is down 13 points since SUSA last polled in May.

Historically, approval ratings below 50% have spelled disaster for incumbent candidates. That's gotta be good news for Al Franken in MN, Jeff Merkley in OR and Bruce Lunsford in KY.