ARIZONA SENATE 2010: Another Primary Challenger For McCain?

Let the polls roll with this new tidbit from the rumor mill. Former Representative J.D. Hayworth is considering a run in next year's primary against John McCain. With Simcox already in the primary race, this could get dicey.

ARIZONA SENATE 2010: Simcox Will Challenge McCain In Republican Primary

Nothing is easy for John McCain these days.  There will be no free ride for mavericks in the 2010 Arizona primary.

Border hawk and Minuteman founder, Chris Simcox, already has his website up and running. Portraying himself as the only conservative in the race, Simcox begins throwing hard blows at McCain on the issue of border security.

"[John McCain] is fully responsible for the deaths along our borders, the raging violence in Mexico and the violence we have in the streets of U.S. cities from border to border and coast to coast. We need someone to take a strong stance, say, 'Enough is enough, you're not representing us.'"

Which John McCain will show up in this election?  Will he support steps toward citizenship for illegal immigrants, as he has in the past, or will he pander to the right-wing of his party?

Fox News: John McCain (D-AZ)

Even the clowns have turned their back.  h/t Jed Report

Reminds me of this...

Electoral Projection: Tightening the Vice

John McCain hasn't found the game changer he's been looking for. For McCain, game changers probably don't exist unless you count Sarah Palin. One could argue that she changed the course of McCain's campaign from the very beginning. McCain's sinking ship has been on the wrong course from the very moment he chose Palin as his running mate. When all is said and done, historians might look at the Palin pick as one of those rare moments when the veep pick actually did matter.

Over the last few weeks, we've witnessed very little change in polling. What small gains there may have been for John McCain have now evaporated (see dead cat bounce). Regular national polls and daily trackers are all now starting to come together for the first time. All of them have the race close to or at double digits. State polling continues to favor Obama as well. 

From our last projection, John McCain loses 14 electoral votes while Barack Obama's score remains unchanged. Polls in North Dakota and Indiana put the race at a dead heat. As a result, both states shift from leans McCain to tossup this week. Voters in North Dakota have been surveyed just three times in October. Obama has led in two of those polls while one other shows the race a tie. Polls back home in Indiana show a close race although Obama has led in three of the last four. 

Although we're not adding any states to Obama's total, he has strengthened his lead in these states:  New Mexico, Minnesota and Maine. As a result, these states move from leans Obama to solid Obama.  We now show Obama with a solid lead in all of the Kerry/Gore states (264 electoral votes).

McCain's sole route to 270 now runs through Pennsylvania. For him to win there, it will take even more than a game changer. Something along the lines of divine order may be McCain's only hope. The latest polls in the Keystone state show Obama gripping a double digit lead.

John Sidney McCain III: Out of Money

To paraphrase a certain former Secretary of Defense: "You go through the last two weeks of the election with the ad buys you have, not the ones you might want."

Who would have thought the Republican nominee for President would be flat broke going into the homestretch of the Presidential campaign? But, according to the Associated Press, John Sidney McCain III is just that.

The AP is reporting that according to his campaign's pre-general election report (which runs until October 15th) that after his outstanding debts McCain only has around $24 million left in the bank. Furthermore, through their rather conservative projections they estimate that as of this writing that number is now closer to $12 million (no word on Obama's current cash on hand take yet, but it's expected to be exponentially higher). No wonder he's trimming and even drastically cutting ad buys across the board in states he must win. The decision to take public financing, even his former aides such as Bob Shrum admit, ruined John Kerry's chances in 2004 (their decision to take public financing made them unable to counter the Swift Boat attacks); and they seem to have put a real damper of John Sidney McCain's chances as well.

Keep in mind that McCain is still relying heavily on RNC ad money to keep him visible on the air, but he still is in a tough situation financially speaking, as those ads are not subject to the same discounts from TV stations as candidate ads are. Also, look for the RNC to divert money to key Senate and House races in the coming days.

No wonder McCain's top aides are already quite literally updating their resumes.

Make sure Barack Obama and Senate Democrats have the funds they need to make it through election day.

The Past As Prologue

A brilliantly crafted little video, featuring (would you believe?) the most popular Republican President of the last one hundred years:

h/t: PostPolitics

Newspaper Endorsements

Here's a list of newspaper endorsements for both Obama and McCain

OBAMA

Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Austin American-Statesman

Chicago Sun-Times

Chicago Tribune

Cleveland Plain Dealer

Concord Monitor (NH)

Denver Post

Detroit Free-Press

Houston Chronicle

Kansas City Star

Las Vegas Sun

Miami Herald

Nashua Telegraph (NH)

New York Daily News

Philadelphia Inquirer (Majority)

Portland Oregonian

Raleigh News & Observer

San Francisco Chronicle

John McCain

Columbus Dispatch

Dallas Morning News

Las Vegas Review-Journal

Philadelphia Inquirer (Dissent)

San Antonio Express-News

San Diego Union-Tribune

Tampa Tribune

Electoral Update - Running Up the Score

Leading up to the third and final presidential debate on Wednesday, Barack Obama was outdistancing John McCain by margins wide enough to make Bill Clinton jealous. The headlines lately haven't had as much to do with Obama winning  as they have how much he would win by.

After a barrage of polls over the past month, yesterday was one of the quietest state polling days of the year. Daily tracking polls have indicated a small shift toward McCain but nothing significant enough to change momentum. While everyone anticipates the results of post-debate polling, nothing lately has given us reason to make any changes from our projection on Tuesday. Obama still leads John McCain 338-174.  Two states, North Carolina (15) and Missouri (11), account for 26 tossups.

By a 2:1 margin, voters thought Obama won the last debate. However, the possibility of John McCain picking up one to two points isn't out of the question. Obama's 8-10 point lead for several days may have included a few disgruntled Republicans who were biting their tongues. They may now feel as if McCain rescued them by what they heard during McCain's exercise in anger management. Regardless, by Tuesday of next week, nobody will remember the debate or Sam the Handyman (aka Joe the Plummer).

Barack Obama's newest strategy to run up the score is bad news for John McCain and other vulnerable Republicans down the ticket. McCain doesn't have the money to adequately defend himself in Indiana, Missouri, Georgia, West Virginia, North Carolina, Virginia and Nevada while at the same time run an effective campaign in Florida and Ohio. Obama can compete anywhere he pleases and then some. Already today, we're learning that John McCain is behind in key counties across Ohio, Missouri, Pennsylvania and Virginia. As we've said before, Virginia is McCain's biggest nightmare.

This is beginning to sound like a broken record, but we'll say it again. John McCain has to win both Florida and Ohio. Even then, both states only get him a ticket to 11 p.m. on election night. Anything other than an all in move in Ohio and Florida is sure to end his chances. This has been and always will be his most essential priority for his campaign. Today, John McCain is campaigning Miami and Melbourne, Florida. Obama is in Roanoke, Virginia.

By the time we make our next projection (Tuesday), we may have an answer as to whether or not Colin Powell is going to endorse Barack Obama or not. He's appearing on Meet the Press on Sunday. We will also have a good idea whether or not McCain made up any ground from his debate performance. For now, we're just 18 days away from the CHANGE we need.

Electoral Update - GOP End Times

There are worse scenarios for Republicans than just losing the 2008 presidential election, even if it's a big loss costing them more seats in Congress. There are mid-terms two years from now and another general in 2012. Bush's damage to the GOP brand will pale in comparison if John McCain's campaign becomes the party's Grim Reaper devastating its electoral prospects for years to come. 

Are we witnessing the end times for the GOP?

For the first time, many Americans are noticing the clear indications of racism (video) and seething hatred (more video) at Republican rallies. If we could look through the portals of time, we might see the mainstream media years from now giving credit to the many bloggers who took their video cameras to McCain/Palin rallies (more video). If only Lou Dobbs had done the same in 2000 and 2004. But who are we kiddin'?

As a result of McCain and Palin far too often tolerating dangerous cheers (more video) from within their own party, the further the Republican party distances itself  from the mainstream. The longer they refuse to disavow the extremists in their own ranks (or at least legitimately acknowledge the problem), the longer it will take for mainstream Republicans to reclaim their rightful seat at the table of American politics.

Each of the major parties has it's share of nuts to bear (more video). Let's just say it. Republicans all too often have allowed their wackos to guide, manage and control party politics. Wingnuts in the Republican party, represented by the likes of Neil Boortz, who blamed the Virginia Tech victims for their own deaths (audio) and other Fox News nuts (more video), have been feeding the caged beast for years. Now, the beast has broken free and is running amok at Republican rallies. Thanks to Youtube, we can all watch without fear of getting hurt.

Republicans need change they can believe in too. They won't find it anytime soon with leaders like John McCain and George Bush who have made a smoldering ruin of the Grand Old Party. Until new leadership emerges and rejects the lunatics who can be heard every day on the radio and television, they will continue to marginalize themselves out of major party politics.

Onto our projection...

Nobody is listening to John McCain. Not anymore. 

What little message he may have is falling upon deaf ears. The billowing cloud of dust you're seeing is the slow-motion implosion of McCain's campaign and the entire GOP along with it. His electoral numbers can hardly get worse while members of his own party daily acknowledge Republican doom. All the while, nobody is paying attention to John McCain.

McCain's campaign is in the basement and national numbers are still falling. In our 13th week, he is losing every battleground including eight states that George Bush won in 2000 or 2004 (NV, NM, CO, IA, OH, FL, VA, NH). The tight race in North Carolina (15) causes us to shift it into the tossup column beside Missouri (11),which is on the verge of turning blue for Obama. Aside from 26 tossups, Barack Obama currently leads John McCain 338-174.

All in all, 116 electoral votes have vanished from Republican presidential map in the last eight years/eight weeks. Even more dire for McCain is that things could get worse. Indiana, West Virginia, Montana, Georgia, North Dakota and Mississippi could also fall by the way side if McCain's free-fall continues. 

McCain's double-digit leads in several traditional Republican strongholds have fallen to single digits while Obama has just enough time to catch up.  Already this week, one poll from North Dakota shows Obama leading while Montana, West Virginia and Georgia aren't far behind. Indiana has remained close all year. 

It's difficult to determine any trends in these third tier states because they have been surveyed so infrequently. Pollsters who assumed John McCain might win these states by large margins may want to reconsider where they make their next phone calls.

Bill Clinton won 376 electoral votes in 1996 (+8.5% popular vote margin). Obama's electoral strength is reaching heights close to those numbers.  Real Clear Politics' national average gives Obama a 7.4% advantage today,  nearly equal to our latest electoral college projection.

Nevada Poll: Obama 47 - McCain 45

A new Mason-Dixon poll  this morning shows Barack Obama making gains in Nevada. A previous Mason-Dixon poll from August showed John McCain leading by seven points.

"Since that time, the undecided number has shrunk by 9 percent and pretty much the entire swing has gone to Obama, noted Mark Peplowski, a political scientist at the College of Southern Nevada. 'Unless something happens to take the focus off the dismal state of the economy, he said, he would expect the trend to continue to favor Obama.

"All other things being equal, undecideds tend to swing toward the candidate they view as an instrument of change," he said. "If you were to take another survey this weekend, you would probably find an even bigger bump for Obama."

In Clark County, the Democratic stronghold that is home to more than 70 percent of the state's population, Obama led by 50 percent to 42 percent. Just as predictably, McCain led in rural Nevada, 55 percent to 38 percent.

But in Washoe County, once a Republican stronghold, McCain had 46 percent of the vote, Obama 45 percent.

Obama Acknowledges McCain for Drawing the Line

Barack Obama this morning in Pennsylvania acknowledged Senator McCain for taking a stand against a few of his disrespectful supporters.

"I want to acknowledge that Senator McCain tried to tone down the rhetoric at his town hall meeting yesterday," Obama said, referring to a raucous gathering where voters urged McCain to get tough on Obama. "I appreciated his reminder that we can disagree while still being respectful of each other."

The New York Times has the story today.

Video: McCain Supporter Refers To Obama as 'Arab.' McCain Booed

McCain/Palin laid this egg. Now they gotta' hatch it.

Obama Ad: McCain Out of Ideas, Out of Touch, Out of Time

Electoral Update - McCain's Slow Motion Implosion

Last week, John McCain was on the brink of disaster. Today, his campaign is a disaster.

With just 31 days left until Election Day, John McCain's campaign is collapsing. For two weeks, several national polls have shown a growing momentum for Barack Obama. Swing state polling however had been slow to show the same effect..until now.

McCain's bread and butter (Florida and Ohio) are now toast. The collapse is especially visible in Florida where seven polling organizations in the last week have conducted surveys.  Six of the seven show Obama leading by three to seven points. For the first time since our first projection, Florida now leans Obama. As for Ohio, Obama is gaining there too; however, the contest in the Buckeye state remains very close. As promised, we intend to keep Ohio in the tossup column until a clear leader emerges.

We also made the same promise about Virginia. Virginia (13) has remained in the tossup column for the whole year except for the week directly after the RNC when we projected McCain to be leading. Since our last projection, three of five polls show Obama passing McCain with numbers at or above the 50% mark. ARG, who shows a three point edge for McCain, has often been erratic in 2008 (see RCP's response to Nate Silver), and Mason-Dixon also found McCain to be leading in their last poll on 9/22. But given what we know about Obama's surge in national averages and polling in neighboring North Carolina (15), we project Virginia to be leaning slightly for Obama.

Florida (27) + Ohio (20) = 47

Florida and Ohio are absolutely necessary for John McCain to win. Even with those states, getting to 270 will be difficult given what we know about Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, and McCain's busted hope on Michigan. As my good friend and fellow blogger Stephen Moody said earlier:

"The abandonment of a serious effort in Michigan further complicates an increasingly difficult challenge for the McCain campaign to garner the necessary 270 electoral votes for a victory on Nov. 4th. Now more than ever, both Florida and Ohio have become must-wins for the GOP ticket."

Obama's momentum is broad and deep and is evident in three of the categories we use for our projection.

1. States that previously were leaning Obama have now moved to solid Obama (PA, MI, NJ, NM, OR).
   
2. Two states previously listed as tossup have now moved to lean Obama (VA, FL).
   
3. Two states that were previously leaning McCain are now tossup (MO, NV).

It's safe to say that this is Barack Obama's high water mark for the year so far. For eleven weeks Obama's electoral advantage has remained flat, primarily because of Florida and Ohio. Those two nuts haven't been easy for Obama to crack. The recent crash on Wall Street, Palin's wobbly interview, Obama's debate win, and McCain's gimmickery all have dragged the Republican ticket down. John McCain, just from last week alone, has lost 43 electoral votes. 

Questions to consider between now and next week:

1. Is Barack Obama's lead sustainable? 

Much has been made of the buyer's remorse theory this year. While voter's may have been weary of Barack Obama months ago, they don't appear to be now. Charges that he may be inexperienced or an amateur have been undermined by McCain's real amateur running mate. Obama's first debate performance also reassured independent voters of his ability to handle foreign affairs.  It appears that for the first time many voters are becoming comfortable with the idea of a President Obama.

2. Will the slow motion collapse of John McCain's campaign accelerate, slow down, or stop? 

The electoral ceiling for Barack Obama is somewhere between 50 and 60 votes higher than our current projection estimate. The last three weeks have been a complete disaster for John McCain. Obama's numbers will continue to climb as long as the economy keeps losing jobs and McCain keeps shooting from the hip. Palin's satisfactory debate performance is likely to make news for one or two days, but it will be irrelevant in less than a week (veep debate analysis). For John McCain to have any chance at a significant comeback, Barack Obama will have to stumble.

3. Would Tina Fey really make a good Vice President? I don't know about you, but it's hard for me to distinguish the difference between the SNL version of Sarah Palin and the real Sarah Palin. Here's a video with a side-by-side comparison. See what I mean?

As so many have said already, a week is a lifetime in politics. But aside from some unforseen disaster, Barack Obama is likely to be elected as the 44th President of the United States. Thousands of people in Ohio and Virginia have already made their choice by voting early, and with each passing day, thousands more will do the same. One third of the electorate will vote by November 4th. 

The probability of McCain using another gimmick is about 90%. The chances of it working are close to zero. And if his strategy once again becomes attacking Obama, he runs the risk of digging the hole even deeper than it is now. If John McCain wins this election, it won't have anything to do with a new McCain campaign strategy/gimmick. Barack Obama holds the keys to victory for both himself and John McCain.

Gallup Debate Poll: Obama Gains Confidence On National Security

The bad news for John McCain keeps coming.  According to a Gallup poll conducted on Saturday, more Americans believe that Barack Obama won the debate, 46-34.

Even worse for McCain is that Americans are growing more confident of Obama with regard to credibility on foreign policy and defense issues.  Obama also made gains on issues related to the economy.

The entire Gallup debate poll can be read here.

Couric 3 McCain/Palin 0

The McCain/Palin ship is really starting to sink. 

Here's that far-left, liberal, socialist, boogeywoman, again. Katie Couric that is. Watch McCain try to blame Couric for Palin's disastrous interview. Oh, and something about a pizza place..

Who will the McCain campaign blame after Thursday's VP debate?

Electoral Update - McCain On the Brink of Disaster

John McCain's surge is over. In fact, the opposite effect is taking place.  For the second straight week, John McCain has lost electoral ground. Last week, we moved Virginia from the McCain column to tossup, and this week we're doing the same for North Carolina. Obama's numbers have held very steady for 10 weeks straight, and he now leads John McCain 273-217.  Besides North Carolina (15), Ohio (20) and Virginia (13) are also too close to call. Ohio and Virginia, as promised, will remain as tossups until one candidate gains a clear advantage.

George Bush won North Carolina by more than 12 points in 2000 and 2004, despite John Edwards running as veep on the Democratic ticket. Regardless of this year's outcome, a double-digit win here by either candidate is unlikely. 

It's hard to tell who's coattailing who, but Barack Obama and Kay Hagan both lead their Republican opponents in the latest Rasmussen polling. Both candidates will put a lot of effort into the triangle region and the northeast area of the state where Democrats generally fair well. Read today's analysis of Wake County by PPP.

But Obama will need to do more than just fair well to win.  He will need to best Kerry's performance in 2004 in Mecklenburg/Charlotte (Kerry 52% Bush 48%) and Chatham County where John Kerry beat George Bush by only 5 votes (12,897 - 12,892). While polls show the race as a dead heat, a strong turnout on election day for Democrats could be the leading headline on November 5th.

 

---

Last week's electoral projection made mention of a possible John McCain surprise.

"The last time McCain needed a jolt to his campaign, he shocked everyone with Palin. If at some point, the campaign begins to slip away, he may just pull another fast one."

And here we have it. McCain's call to suspend his campaign has everyone wondering whether or not he will attend tonight's debate. In light of  gridlock on bailout, McCain's Hail-Mary, and next Thursday's vice presidential debate, we'll ask a some related questions today and then answer them in next Friday's projection.

1. Will John McCain's appearance (or no-show) in Oxford tonight be a moment of demise or reinvigoration for his campaign?

2. The expectations to perform well are high for Barack Obama. Can he live up to them in the debate.

3. Many people are hoping that a deal on the bailout will be made by Sunday. Will Republicans be able to catch McCain's Hail-Mary pass? Will poll numbers next week show confidence in McCain's role in whatever decisions are made, or will voters see his decisions this week as razzle dazzle, as Chris Matthews put it. Will McCain alienate himself from the conservative base?

4. For more than three weeks, the nation has been captivated by moose hunting mama, Sarah Palin. The expectations haven't been much lower than they are for Palin going into next week's vice presidential debate. Will the viewing audience be left with the impression that Biden was too tough on her? Will the debate even matter?

As always, a week is a lifetime in presidential politics. Just last week, we were talking about how the political landscape was shaping up to look like 2000 and 2004.  This week, when you consider NC and VA as both being tossups, that doesn't seem at all to be the case. 

With just 38 days left until election day, John McCain is on the brink of disaster. Any further setbacks are sure to cost him in places like Ohio, Nevada, and Florida. For him, next week could be the most important week of his political life. For Obama, the opportunity to round another base is at hand, and sliding into home plate on November 4th is shaping up to be more possible now than ever. 

National Poll: Obama By 9

A new Washington Post/ABC News Poll released this morning shows Barack Obama surging past John McCain to a 52-43 point lead nationally.  McCain's convention bounce gave him a two point lead two weeks ago, but that lead has now been erased as voters fear a worsening economy and the ongoing catastrophe on Wall Street.  

Highlights from the poll. View full polling data (pdf)

Obama leads 52-39 on the economy

Independents prefer Obama by 21 points on issues related to the economy

9% rate the economy as "good" or "excellent"


14% of voters believe the nation is heading in the right direction  (ties record low in 1973)


60% are worried about their own family finances


43% of independent women view Palin favorably compared to 65% last month (-22%)


62% of Obama supporters are "very enthusiastic" compared to just 34% for John McCain who feel the same way about his candidacy.

Video: McCain "No regrets" Deregulation "Helpful to economy"

He wasn't kidding when he said he needed an education in economics.

Here's a portion of the 60 Minutes interview from yesterday.

Quote of the Day

George Will, conservative columnist, political commentator and long-time water carrier for the Republican Party, speaking today about John McCain's handling of the financial crisis, on ABC's This Week With George Stephanopoulous:

"The question is, who in this crisis looked more presidential, calm and un-flustered? It wasn't John McCain who, as usual, substituting vehemence for coherence, said 'let's fire somebody.' ....and then picked one of the most experienced and conservative people in the administration, Chris Cox, and for no apparent reason... It was un-presidential behavior by a presidential candidate."