Quote of the Day

"...you should absolutely not assume that just because someone has published a poll, they have any particular idea what they're doing. Pollsters should be treated as guilty until proven otherwise."

-- Nate Silver

                   Fivethirtyeight.com

New Polls: Obama Cruising In Battlegrounds

Leading amongst both women and men, whites and independents, Barack Obama continues to lead by large margins in four key battlegrounds according to a Quinnipiac press release this morning.  The entire press release including polling internals can be viewed here.

BATTLEGROUND RESULTS (conducted October 8-12)

COLORADO      Obama 52     McCain 43     (O+9)
MICHIGAN      Obama 54     McCain 38     (O+16)
MINNESTOA     Obama 51     McCain 40     (O+11)
WISCONSIN     Obama 54     McCain 37     (O+17)

Quinnipiac's Peter Brown:
“Sen. Obama’s leads in these four battleground states are as large as they have been the entire campaign. Those margins may be insurmountable barring a reversal that has never been seen before in the modern era in which polling monitors public opinion throughout the campaign.” 

“The only possible bright spot for Sen. McCain – and you would need Mary Poppins to find it in these numbers – is that he is holding roughly the same portion of the Republican vote. But McCain’s support among independent voters, a group he says are key to winning the White House, has collapsed.”

“Any realistic chance of McCain coming from behind depends on scoring a knockout in this week’s last debate. But given that he has been judged by the electorate to have lost both of the previous face-offs, that would seem to be a very tall order.”

“Obama’s surge comes from voters saying by wide margins that he better understands the economy. Moreover, about that many more say McCain has not shown effective leadership on the economy than has done so.”

WOMEN

COLORADO      Obama 54     McCain 38     (O+16)
MICHIGAN      Obama 60     McCain 32     (O+28)
MINNESOTA     Obama 57     McCain 34     (O+23)
WISCONSIN     Obama 59     McCain 33     (O+26)

MEN

COLORADO      Obama 49     McCain 47     (O+2)
MICHIGAN      Obama 48     McCain 44     (O+4)
MINNESTOA     Obama 46     McCain 46     (Even)
WISCONSIN     Obama 49     McCain 41     (O+8)

WHITE VOTERS

COLORADO      Obama 48     McCain 47     (O+1)
MICHIGAN      Obama 48     McCain 43     (O+5)
MINNESTOA     Obama 49     McCain 43     (O+6)
WISCONSIN     Obama 52     McCain 39     (O+13)

INDEPENDENTS

COLORADO      Obama 51     McCain 40     (O+11)
MICHIGAN      Obama 52     McCain 35     (O+17)
MINNESTOA     Obama 51     McCain 38     (O+13)
WISCONSIN     Obama 52     McCain 36     (O+16)

Note to Republicans: Minnesota Isn't Poachable

It seems that every couple years Republicans make a big play late for Minnesota. While the state is much different than the state that voted for the Democratic nominee in 1980, 1984, and 1988, despite anemic nationwide results in those years; the state still has a slight, but significant Democratic lean. George Bush made a big play for the state in both 2000 and 2004, but lost the state by 2 (he was aided by a Nader candidacy that drained 5% off of Gore's total) and 4 points respectively.

In 2006, when vulnerable Democratic Senator Mark Dayton announced his retirement, Republicans were drooling at what they thought would be an easy pickup with the allegedly up and coming Republican Congressman Mark Kennedy. However, the DSCC and Amy Klobuchar went on the air early and defined the race; and she won the race by 20 points and won all but eight of Minnesota's counties.

But going into 2008, Republicans held out hope for the Gopher State, and even decided to hold their convention and the Twin Cities. But as history has shown, Minnesota is quickly becoming a less expensive version of New Jersey for Republicans. As recently as Thursday, McCain’s advisors were citing Minnesota as one of the states they were hoping to poach since Michigan is no longer an option.

Polling has been all over the map in the state, but the heralded Star-Tribune poll (good rule of thumb: When polls are divergent, trust the pollster who polls the state in question with regularity) was released over the weekend showing both Barack Obama and Al Franken opening up significant leads of double digits for both candidates.

Obama leads McCain 55-37% (up from 45-45% early in September in this poll), and Franken has opened up a 43-34% lead (with the independent in the race polling at 18%), a 13 point swing from the last poll that had Brooklyn born Norm Coleman up by four points. Despite McCain vastly outspending Obama in the state, Obama has been able to open up the lead mainly on the back of economic concerns, whereas Franken’s lead in this poll is mainly attributed (by the proprietors of this poll) to attrition of the ad war currently going on in the state (the Minnesota Senate race is the nastiest and the most personal race in the country at the moment). One thing to watch in that Senate race is the number of the independent candidate, Dean Barkley, who is currently polling at 18% and is climbing. If that trend continues, who will he take votes from and if he collapses (as many independents do as election day approaches) who will his votes flow to?

While these poll numbers look good (though this poll has been accused as having a slight Democratic lean), don’t be complacent and help Barack Obama and Al Franken keep Minnesota blue.

InstaPolls: Biden Wins Debate

The first two instaPolls about tonight's Vice-Presidential debate are out. Both give a clear win to Joe Biden over Sarah Palin.

CNN:  Biden 51%, Palin 36%, among all viewers of the debate.

CBS:  Biden, 46%, Palin 21%, draw 33%, among undecided voters.

Breaking News: Obama Thunders Ahead in Key Battleground Sates

According to polling data released by Quinnipiac University just hours ago, Barack Obama has taken statistically significant leads over John McCain in three crucial battleground states. Especially noteworthy is the finding that Obama is at or above the fifty percent mark in each of these states.

Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 43%  

Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 42%

Pennsylvania: Obama 54%, McCain 39%

In all three states, the latest survey numbers show major gains for Obama since the previous polls by Quinnipiac. Internals of the polls suggest Obama's surge was fueled by economic concerns, his strong performance in the first presidential debate and the continuing collapse of McCain running mate, Sarah Palin.

Debate Win Should Add to Obama's Momentum

As noted in our latest Electoral Vote projection, Senator Obama was already picking up steam heading into last night's Presidential debate. Three tracking polls out today  - Rasmussen, Gallup and Diageo/Hotline - confirm that assessment. 

Obama leads McCain by five points in the Gallup and Diageo/Hotline surveys and by six points in Rasmussen's tracker. None of these daily tracking surveys reflect the impact of last night's debate. Note that Obama's lead is outside the margin of error in all three tracking polls.

Then comes the debate. According to flash polls by CBS, CNN and others, Obama won last night's encounter handily. Numbers from various real-time focus groups (Luntz, GQR, etc.) show the same results. Assuming these snapshots are accurate, we will almost certainly see Obama's lead increase in the days ahead. Without a doubt, the Democratic Presidential nominee now has what Bush The Elder famously called "Big Mo" (momentum).

There must be a bunch of very worried ex-lobbyists at McCain Headquarters today. Stay tuned for the next gimmick from McCainWorld. Given the trouble they're in, you can bet it's coming.

Poll Perspective

As the stream of political polls turns into a veritable flood between now and election day, it's probably a good idea to take a deep breath and try to keep a little perspective on what these surveys are actually telling us.

Perhaps the most important thing to keep in mind is that, although national polls are extremely useful in giving us a good sense of how the race is going, we choose our President through the electoral college, not by direct popular vote. It's an obvious point, I know, but one that is often ignored by the chattering classes on network and cable television - and even by those in the print media.  The state-by-state polls are what really matter. 

Secondly, the margins of error (MOEs) in any poll - national or state - are very important. These MOEs are typically in the range of plus or minus 3 to 5 percentage points. Thus, real voter sentiment can vary as much as six to ten points from what the raw poll numbers indicate. So far, we've seen only few national polls in the presidential race which give one candidate or the other a lead outside the margin of error.  The Washington Post/ABC News poll, released today and discussed in detail in the blog below, is a notable exception. Obama's nine point lead is well beyond that survey's three point (plus or minus) margin of error.

Finally, it is helpful to remember how many real voters these national poll numbers represent. Assuming that the turn-out in this year's election is at least as high as four years ago, each percentage point equates to roughly 1.3 million voters. So, a nine point lead in a national survey, such as we see in today's Washington Post/ABC News poll, equals over eleven million voters. No small potatoes, that.

National Polling Update: Static, Static, Static!

Now that the most condensed two weeks of Presidential campaign action have passed, I think it’s worth revisiting, briefly, the state of the race.

* Obama did get a bounce from his convention. However, it was obviously shortened and truncated by the Palin announcement on Friday and the GOP convention the following week, which made some uninformed “journalists” write nonsense stories.

* McCain did get a bounce, and a good one (there is an inherent advantage to having your convention last, as both 2000 and 2004 show). There’s no denying that, but…it has receded the last few days.

* In fact, as I have stated numerous times, that race seems…well, static. McCain’s national numbers have come back to earth and are basically were they were before Senator Obama picked Joe Biden. The Rasmussen and Gallup tracks are basically where they were at three weeks ago, and the new Diageo/Hotline and R2K/Kos tracks have the race reverting back to a four point Obama advantage, and the trendline in all four polls has shown a three or four point swing to Obama in the last few days.

* While it’s too soon to tell what the impending economic crisis will mean to the campaign, Obama has shown strength in poll samples the last couple nights. But most importantly, in the Hotline tracking poll, Obama has gone from a two point advantage on the issue of the economy last Friday to an eleven point advantage today. He also now enjoys a 57-33% lead on the question of which candidate “better understands people like you?” Also in the Hotline poll is the nugget that Obama has opened up a twelve point lead on energy, up from just four a few days ago.

* Palin’s favorable rating has collapsed: Last week, Hotline’s fav/unfav rating for her was a robust 48-24%, now it’s merely a 47-36%. Whereas the R2K/Kos poll has her rating down to 45-44%, a net swing of 13% since Friday.

* John Sidney McCain III’s has too: His ridiculous and discredited attacks have brought his favorability rating from 56-43% on Friday to today’s 49-45%. Whereas Obama’s has stayed stable from a 57-41% to 54-37%. John McCain’s strengths have always relied on his character and personal “integrity;” and once that is gone, he’s just another generic Republican candidate.

Since state polling often lags behind (mostly due to the low volume of it compared to national polls) it’s still hard to tell how they have been affected. But there is some anecdotal evidence (such as Virginia going back into a tie or a small Obama lead) that Obama has bounced back in many swing states. But let there be no question, the race is where it was, and where it’s always been. A tight race but one whose fundamental dynamics and state favors Barack Obama.

AP to Neutrality and Logic: Drop Dead

The Associated Press has been a disgrace to journalism lately under the direction of their DC bureau chief Ron Fournier, who just last year was in serious talks with John McCain’s campaign as a paid advisor; and they are at it again.

Yesterday, the AP released another on a long line of many hit pieces on Senator Obama. This one proclaims that despite for all of Obama’s talk about expanding the electoral map, he is quickly adopting the “Win Ohio” strategy that John Kerry’s ill-fated campaign adopted in 2004. Their “evidence” for this is that Obama in his post-convention tour visited such traditional battlegrounds such as Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Quite obviously, this is proof that he has given up on all other states his campaign has targeted.

Let’s look at (and refute) some of the more dubious claims on the piece:

"Despite early optimism, Obama's strategists are mapping out an electoral plan similar to Democrat John Kerry's from 2004…. But don't look for the Democratic presidential nominee in, say, undeniably GOP Idaho.”

This is probably true…I do not expect to see Obama make a play in Idaho, however no one serious ever claimed he would. This is a state that George Bush (only Wyoming and Utah were more favorable to the GOP in 2004) won by nearly forty points. In other news, John Sidney McCain III isn't making a play in Vermont. Gasp!

"Obama has long looked for a way to win the White House without the 20 electoral votes of Ohio, the prototypical swing state. His top aides, including his campaign manager, once said they could lose the state and still win the election by picking off states that typically support Republicans. No more."

Really now? While Obama is still, as he always has, focusing a great deal of attention on Ohio, it is hardly his “be all and end all” of his electoral strategy. Let’s just consider this for a moment:

Michigan and New Hampshire are the only two Kerry states that McCain is even in striking distance, and in both states Obama is polling narrowly, but consistently, ahead of McCain. The Kerry states puts him at 252 electoral votes, and he now has a double digit lead in Iowa and a high single digit lead in New Mexico which would bring him to 264 electoral votes. Now Obama is not guaranteed to win the aforementioned four states, but he is clearly favored. 538’s regression model (not to mention essentially every poll) has him winning Michigan and New Hampshire by 3-4%; as well as Iowa and New Mexico by 7-9%. If these numbers hold, Obama is already at 264 electoral votes.

So where does that leave John Sidney McCain III? He would have to win states where he has a slight, though unclear polling advantages such as Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Montana, and North Dakota; all of which except the last two possess enough electoral votes to put Obama over 270, should he win.

Of course, there are also states like Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado where the race is essentially a deadheat (though 538’s regression gives Obama a very slight advantage in all three); that Obama can rely on to win. Even Nevada which, again, is a basic dead heat (though 538’s regression gives a very slight advantage for McCain as of this writing) would bring it in a 269-269 tie (Even if Obama loses all of the other states that I mentioned), which would probably result in his victory. While this area is murky and without a lot of precedent, most analysis confirms that Obama would likely prevail in a 269-269 tie, due to the Democratic advantage in Congress (See all of 538's regressions based on historical data and polling models here).

Needless to say, Senator Obama has plenty of electoral scenarios that don’t go through the Buckeye State. Maybe they should write a story on how Michigan is essentially a must-win for McCain (unless he wants to roll the dice and hope he runs the table among the other swing states).

Maybe the AP will consider being thoughtful and fair for once. But I'm not holding my breath.

The State of the Race and Dispelling Media Myths

With the Democratic National Convention set to kick off in Denver, polls are being released galore to provide a baseline before the most condensed and eventful two weeks in recent political history commences. One poll that caught my attention today was the Washington Post/ABC News poll that was conducted late last week, it provides many details on a host of questions and shows that much of the media narrative is non-sense.

Let’s first get down to the pure brass tacks of the poll, which I consider one of the more reputable ones out there, mainly because they’re more transparent about their methodology and release detailed information broken down by demographic.

Obama leads McCain 48-42% in a four way contest (With Nader and Barr) among likely voters, which is basically where the race has been, sans some minor ebbs in both directions, for months. Despite the much talked about negative (and allegedly, effective) attacks by John Sidney McCain III, Obama still sports a 62-34% favorable rating (McCain’s is a robust 59-37% as well). In comparison, at this point in 2004, John Kerry’s favorable rating was only in the +10% range and never did exceed a 55% favorable rating…while Obama, after a much more bruising primary, is flirting with 2:1 territory and one that is extraordinary stable.

Let’s talk about some other myths that this poll puts to rest:

Obama isn’t connecting on the economy

He leads McCain on the economy by a 50-39% margin.

McCain is killing Obama on the drilling issue!

Obama leads 49-42% on Energy issues.

Additionally, Obama is keeping McCain’s advantage among terrorism to a mere 52-38% margin, is tied with him with Iraq and taxes; and sports a double digit lead in social issues.

Here’s another myth:

Obama is underperforming the usual Democratic strength among whites, women, and Hispanics.

While John Kerry lost whites by a 41-58% margin (From 1992-2004, the Democratic nominee ranged from 39-42% of the white vote), Obama only trails McCain 49-43% among whites; and that’s with a decent amount of undecideds and at least a fraction of those will break for Obama. Obama leads among women 55-37% over performing John Kerry, Al Gore, and Bill Clinton’s margin among females, sometimes by significant margins.

Of course, married women are a real weakness for Obama, right? All those angry Hillary supporters will harm his candidacy fatally, no? He leads 48-44, a group that voted for Bush by 11 points four years ago.

Well then, naturally whites making less than 50K are a weakness for Obama? Well he leads by a 49-40% margin, where Kerry lost this group by 7 points.
As for Hispanics, he overperforms Kerry by a significant margin as well, leading 61-27% among the group that Kerry only got 57% with. A particular strong showing against a Southwestern Senator from a border state, who is a moderate on immigration.

Obama has even made significant strides among traditionally Republican voters. While George Bush won White Evangelicals by a 78-21% margin, Obama has cut the GOP advantage to a 65-27% margin; a near twenty point swing. He is also polling double what John Kerry did among self-described Republicans. While he still faces insurmountable deficits among those groups, in a close election those are significant number of votes gained.

While I know the storyline of working class white Americans and other groups that Obama underperformed with in the primary not supporting a black candidate is intriguing, it just isn’t based in the data.

While, it is still a tight race, it is a static one and one that still favors Senator Obama. This race has potential to be fluid soon though, with two conventions in the next ten days. But for now, the media coverage is fundamentally not honest. No wonder, since the media is in the tank for John Sidney McCain III. And why wouldn’t they be? He cooks BBQ for them at his retirement estate in Sedona, AZ.

But let’s be honest about the state of the race.

The Race Is Static

Despite all of talk about how Obama's trip abroad or John McCain's non-sensical "celebrity" ads were either expanding or contracting Obama's advantage, all data on a national level suggests that the race has remained static the past few weeks with Senator Obama continuing a lead in the mid-to-high single digits.

Last week three non-tracking national polls were released by Time, AP-Ipsos, and CBS...and what did they show? Well if you were listening to the media (those people who are supposed very pro-Obama, if you listen to Senator Dole..err McCain), you'd think Obama was in some sort of free fall. But that's simply not the case as these polls showed leads of five, six, and six points respectively. Of course, that's the same basic range of five to eight points that the junior Senator from Illinois has enjoyed in most polls in the past two or three months. That consistent advantage is one that neither George Bush or John Kerry ever enjoyed in 2004 for any real length of time, and should not be discounted. With few outlying exceptions, Obama has polled in the 46-49% range, while Senator McCain has lingered in the 39-43% range in most polls since the Spring.

While neither Obama's trip nor McCain's ads seem to have made a lasting impression in the polls, we must wait to see if they've sowed seeds of doubt (or reassurance) among independents and undecideds come the Fall. But for now, the race is essentially in a state of static. As Dan Balz wrote in the Washington Post this weekend:

Amid a profusion of polls and a war of words and television commercials, the underlying dynamics of the election appear little changed in the two months since the primaries ended. Democrat Obama still faces reservations among voters about his background and readiness. Republican McCain still faces questions about whether he has a governing vision that represents a clear break from the policies of President Bush.

Note: Yes, I am aware of Bill's wonderful Electoral Projection that has Florida moving from undecided to Lean McCain, but I find that not too surprising and most, if not all, observers have considered to be slight-lean McCain for a long while; though I certainly think the race in the Sunshine State is very tight especially considering McCain got a head start there. I would advise everyone not to get too excited or agitated with a poll that shows either candidate moving their numbers a slight bit in either direction.

You Get What You Pay For. Well, maybe not always...

Poor CNN. They spent all that money on a new poll conducted on their behalf by Opinion Research Corp and then they couldn't bring themselves to use it. Although the poll results were released yesterday afternoon around 3pm ET, Campbell Brown's prime time program at 8pm ET never mentioned it. Instead, Ms. Brown briefly cited CNN's so-called 'poll of polls' (some sort of average of selected polls, but they never tell us which ones).

Why would CNN not use its own poll?

Could it be that the reason CNN chose not to use its own poll was because that poll's results don't fit CNN's predetermined narrative about this election? After all, the CNN/Opinion Research poll showed Obama with a 7 point lead over McCain (51% to 44%), a lead outside the margin of error. CNN's concocted 'poll of polls' gave Obama a five point lead (48% to 43%). That is barely inside the margin of error, allowing the CNN chattering classes to portray the race as a tie.

I guess if you are doggedly determined to present the 2008 presidential contest as a horse race that is 'virtually tied' even the respected polls you pay for can be tossed in the trash if they don't support the narrative. Facts cannot be allowed to get in the way of the network story line.

So much for the 'best political team on television'.

New Polls: Obama Leading in FL, OH, PA

Those of us who follow polls on a daily basis are just now recovering from emotional shock after Monday's disastrous Gallup flop.  To help expedite our recovery, Quinnipiac has just released a group of new polls for a few key states.

Florida:  

Obama 46  McCain 44

Ohio:  

Obama 46 McCain 44

Pennsylvania:  

Obama 49  McCain 42

It's difficult to put stock into these numbers however.  Quinnipiac is calling McCain's latest numbers a surge despite Florida and Ohio netting him just 2% over last month.

"'The $64,000 question is whether Sen. John McCain's surge is a result of Sen. Obama's much-publicized Middle Eastern and European trip, or just a coincidence that it occurred while Sen. Obama was abroad,' said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute." 

"'While Obama was on tour, trying to show voters he could handle world affairs, voters were home trying to fill their gas tanks,' Brown added."

Obama was just three days into his foreign tour when Quinnipiac began polling (July 23).  The miniature gains by McCain in this latest round of polling are unlikely the result of a "surge" of sudden support.  Put your checkbook down Mr. Brown, I'll take the $64K in cash. 

CNN's Political Ticker producer, Alexander Mooney, couldn't resist the urge to present this story as some spectacular theatre.

"But in what could be a warning sign for Obama as voters begin to turn their attention to the general election race, Obama's lead appears to have dwindled, or barely remained steady, in all three states..."

Warning sign?  Nothing has changed.  Florida and Ohio have been close all summer.  There was virtually no lead for McCain to narrow in the first place.  As for Pennsylvania, a Strategic Vision (Republican) poll released just yesterday shows Obama leading by nine.  Mr. Mooney apparently didn't get the memo.

Last week, Quinnipiac also showed a 15% swing for John McCain in Minnesota, narrowing Obama's lead to just 2% in less than a month.  Quinnipiac's Minnesota number is so far distant from other polling groups (including their own data from the month before) that it's almost certain to be a statistical outlier.  See also Colorado.

There's no shortage of reporters who desperately want a horse race, and you'll be hard pressed to find a surge in anything these days unless you're looking for a growing number of miscalculated blunders by professional pollsters. 

Tomorrow:  Friday's Electoral Projection.

Travel Bounce?

The Gallup daily tracking poll for today (July 27) gives Obama a nine point lead over McCain. This is the largest margin for either candidate since Gallup began its Obama-McCain match-ups in mid March of this year. Although Obama has consistently led the daily tracking poll in recent weeks, his margins have been in the 2-3 point range.

Friday's Rasmussen tracking poll showed Obama with a five point edge, which was also an improvement in his performance in that poll in recent weeks.

Could these be the first hints of a bounce in Obama's numbers as a result of his highly successful travels to the Middle East and Europe? No doubt we will see more polls in the coming days to help answer that question. Personally, I'm feeling pretty good about it.

Electoral Projection

** Check the front page for the latest Electoral Projection **

We like Dave Leip's formula for allocating a state for one candidate or another.  We've designated states to a candidate only if they are leading in the last three consecutive polls. Otherwise, a state remains a tossup.  I've made one exception for Colorado because Obama has led in six of the last seven polls.  Yesterday's Quinnipiac poll puts McCain up by two. One poll well within the margin of error isn't enough to convince me to make any changes.  We will be updating the electoral college map at the end of each week through the election cycle.

We're nearing the end of July, and an average of national polls over the last few weeks shows Obama leading McCain by four or five points.  There will be a lot of eyes watching polls next week to read into whether or not Obama's foreign tour had an impact.

With 101 days left until E-day, I thought it would be interesting to look back at where polls were in July 2004.  Kerry led throughout June and July, and then the swiftboating began. There are clear differences between 2004 and 2008 (poor economy, no incumbent, etc.), so we won't reach too far in drawing conclusions.  Regardless, these numbers should serve as a reminder of how quickly presidential races can change.  In other words, this is no time to be resting on our laurels.

Group	Date	Bush	Kerry	Nader/Camejo	Spread
Marist (573 LV)	7/30-8/2	47%	47%	1%	TIE
CBS News (991RV)	7/31-8/1	43%	48%	3%	Kerry +5
CNN/Gallup/USAT (LV)	7/30-8/1	51%	45%	2%	Bush +6
ABC News/WP (LV)	7/30-8/1	47%	49%	2%	Kerry +2
ARG (776 RV)	7/30-8/1	45%	49%	2%	Kerry +4
Newsweek (1010 RV)	7/29-7/30	42%	49%	3%	Kerry +7

  Source:  Real Clear Politics 2004 Presidential Poll Averages

Taking a look at past electoral and popular vote margins puts something else into perspective.  A five or six point popular vote margin, as small as it may seem, will probably translate into at least 320 electoral votes.  

	Popular Vote Margin	Electoral Vote Margin
2004	2.46%	35
2000*	-0.54%	5
1996	8.51%	220
1992	5.56%	202
1988	7.72%	315
1984	18.21%	512
1980	9.74%	440
1976	2.06%	57

2008 Senate Race Projection

*Updated and current Senate projections can be found by navigating through the Elect Blue Index (left-top margin).  Senate projections will be updated weekly starting August 26th.

As of today, 7/23/08, here's my outlook on this year's senate races.

Democrats are projected to have at least a 55 seat majority in the senate after November's election. If you've been watching closely, 55 is the rock-bottom number Democrats are likely to have. Their goal: A filibuster proof majority, which is 60. They're unlikely to get to 60, but they could come close, and here's why.

Republicans have 23 seats up for grabs this year. Democrats only have 12. Of the twelve Democrat seats, only one is in play, and that's Landrieu's seat in LA. Unfortunately for her, thousands of Katrina victims (who would have voted for her) have relocated somewhere other than LA. She's led in every recent poll, but her opponent, John Kennedy, is on her heels. She's only been leading by four or five in most polls, and that's why this race is on everyone's watchlist.

Ugly Outlook For GOP

COLORADO 

A few have bucked my prediction that CO will go blue in 2008. Make no doubt about it, the DNC will pour a lot of Benjamins into this one. Republican, Wayne Allard, is pulling a Bill Frist by only running two terms. He's finished. Enter Democrat, Mark Udall. He's been running around 10 points ahead of his Republican challenger, Bob Schaffer. Democrats in CO elected a new Democratic governor in 2006 by 15%, and they also control the state house and senate. Bush won CO by 6%. This seat will turn blue in November.

NEW HAMPSHIRE 

What more is there to say except this is the end for John Sununu (R). His opponent,  Jeanne Shaheen has been crushing him by more than 10 points in the latest polls. The last Rasmussen poll has Shaheen leading by 14. Democrats have been picking off Republicans one by one over the last few years here too. Democrats, in 2006, won back both House seats, and for the first time since the 1870's, New Hampshire Democrats control both chambers of the state government. Adding on, Democrats reelected their Governor in 2006 by an enormous margin. NH went to Bush in 2000 and to Kerry in 2004. Democrats will pick up this seat too.

NEW MEXICO 

This is the blowout of all blowouts. Democratic Congressman, Tom Udall, is riding the wave over Republican, Steve Pearce. Unfortunately for Republicans, Pete Domenici has decided to not run for a seventh term (see also CO).   Polls have Udall leading anywhere from 20-25 points. This race has a lot of interesting twists and turns when you dig into which candidates put their hats in for this seat. Three Republicans, all of which held US House seats, gave up their posts to run in this race. Now, all those seats are open too. Gore won NM in 2000 but Bush beat Kerry here by just 365 votes.  Tom Udall is the cousin of CO's Mark Udall.

VIRGINIA 

If you're looking for things to get prettier for the GOP, better hit the back button while you can. Shut down the computer if you need to. Here in VA, we have governor vs. governor. Former Republican Governor, Jim Gilmore, is getting crushed by former Governor Mark Warner. Rasmussen's latest poll puts Warner ahead by 23, and every poll since September has him cruising anywhere from 25 to 30 points ahead. Why you ask? Same story as before. Changing demographics have led to a red state turning blue. In 2006, Republican incumbent, George Allen, was thumped by Democrat Jim Webb. And in 2005, Tim Kaine rode the coattails of a popular Warner into the Governor's mansion. The presidential race will be a barn burner for sure. It will be the closest percentage race in the nation in my opinion. The senate race on the other hand is a snoozer.

These are the races that should get Democrats to 55. I'm counting Sanders (I-VT) and Lieberman (I-CT) for Democrats because they almost always vote with Democrats procedurally (minus Lieberman on Iraq and Iran).  Starting with the closest races, here are the remaining tossup Senate seats.

Nightmare Scenario For GOP If These Seats Are Lost

It's 55 plus one for each of these races Democrats can manage to win.

ALASKA 

If you've heard of the Bridge to nowhere, you may know who Ted Stevens is. Polls over the last three months have been dead even between Stevens and his Democrat challenger, Mark Begich, but a Rasmussen poll released yesterday puts Begich up by 8. As important as the margin, it's the first poll in which either candidate has reached the 50% threshold with Begich polling at 52%. It's hard to imagine how Stevens is even in the game given his past. One year ago, the FBi raided his home and began an investigation into his dealings with a former oil contractor who was later convicted of bribery. Smells..or rather sounds like the Tennessee Waltz, right? Stevens would be 91 years old at the end of another term if reelected and has never received less than 66% of the vote. It's a "bridge" too far for Stevens to get even 55% this time. This one appears to be too close to call unless more polling data reveals Begich opening his lead.

MISSISSIPPI 

MS makes my head hurt because there are actually two senate races going on at the same time. Only one however is close. When Trent Lott resigned, Republican Governor Barbour appointed Roger Wicker to replace him. Previously, Wicker had been a Congressman for 13 years in MS-01. After his departure, the seat was taken over in a special election by Democrat Travis Childers. Things only get worse if Republicans lose Lott's seat. Wicker's challenger, Ronnie Musgrove is on Wicker's heels too. The last two polls are virtually tied (Musgrove +1 in June, Wicker +1 in July), and with the election still a hundred days away, both are slingin' Mississippi mud as if it were November 1st. It's bound to get nasty in the swamps. This race will be as close as any senate race this year. A barn-burner to be sure.

OREGON

Like Alaska, things were lookin' relatively safe for Republican, Gordon Smith until Democrat challenger, Jeff Merkley found himself leading by 2% in a Rasmussen poll released last Wednesday. June's poll had Smith winning by 9%. Smith's approach to winning reelection is an odd one to say the least. He's siding with Barack Obama. If you can't beat 'em, join, 'em, right? Actually, Obama isn't supporting Smith at all. In the coming weeks we should have a better grasp on where things are headed. Too close to call.

MINNESOTA

It's hard for me to take Al Franken serious. A lot of Minnesotans feel different though. Whether or not there are enough voters to support Franken remains to be seen however. There have been four polls since May, and three of four have incumbent Norm Coleman leading. The only Rasmussen poll shows Franken leading by 2%; however, it may be an outlier. The other three polls average to show Coleman leading by double digits. Survey USA's poll, released only a few days after Rasmussen's, shows Coleman up by 9%.  I'd be surprised if Franken pulls it off, but if there was ever a year to do it, it's 2008.

MAINE

Susan Collins is a middle of the road Republican who is popular in Maine. She's unlikely to be thrown to the wolves by Mainers, but her challenger, Tom Allen, is expected to keep things just close enough to make Collins get off her butt, raise money, and campaign. Collins promised to serve only two terms. Fortunately for Republicans, she's going back on that promise. I have strong doubts about Allen's chances, and I'm not even sure why this race is on anyone's watch list (although you'll find it on many).  He's not led in one poll, and Collins' average lead is somewhere around 12-15%.

NORTH CAROLINA

A few months ago, Democrat challenger, Kay Hagan, was turning heads. Numbers for Liddy Dole weren't looking so good. But things have changed since Dole began dumping money into the race. She also rearranged her staff back in May. Since then, the race has been favoring Dole so much that I doubt Hagen's chances. Regardless, I read somewhere the other day that Schumer has set aside $6 million for Hagen. She'll need it. This seat has been owned by Republicans for 35 years. Four published polls between June and July have Dole leading somewhere around 10% to 12%. An internal poll released by Hagan has Dole leading by just 4. Some believe Dole to be a complete ditz and others claim she's a terrible campaigner; nonetheless, I'm sticking with Dole for now on this one.

As for us here in Tennessee, Alexander is up for reelection, but the race hasn't been on anyone's radar. One reason is we haven't had our primary yet. Another is because Alexander is an incumbent in a very, very red state. Alexander will take on either Bob Tuke, former Tennessee DNC Chair, or the more moderate Knox County resident and businessman, Mike Padgett. I've never met Mike, but he told me in an email yesterday that he believes he has a better shot at taking down Alexander.  This seat may not be as "safe" as some are making it.  Ford Jr. made Corker sweat until the very end.  In a year when the Republican brand is as tarnished as ever, it may be possible..even in Red Tennessee..that Padgett or Tuke can make this one a horse race.

Other states that are safe for GOP: ID, WY, NE, KS, OK, TX, MS(Cochran), AL, SC, GA. McConnell's looking safe for now in KY, although he's still not polling at 50% which gives some reason for concern. He's been leading around 8-10%. The GA race may be one to not look too far away from either.

Safe for Democrats: MT, SD, IA, AR, IL, WV, DE, NJ, RI, MA.

Right now, it looks like Democrats are sitting on 57. I'm counting on AK and either OR or MS to come through. A lot could change though.