Yet Another Prominent GOP Figure Endorses Obama

The Associated Press television writer, David Bauder, says former White House press secretary Scott McClellan is voting for Barack Obama. In a short article posted on ABC News Online, McClellan, a lifelong Republican, is quoted as saying that Obama has "the best chance of changing the way Washington works and getting things done".

Is anyone keeping a running count of the number of rats leaving the sinking McCain-Palin ship?

Poll Perspective

As the stream of political polls turns into a veritable flood between now and election day, it's probably a good idea to take a deep breath and try to keep a little perspective on what these surveys are actually telling us.

Perhaps the most important thing to keep in mind is that, although national polls are extremely useful in giving us a good sense of how the race is going, we choose our President through the electoral college, not by direct popular vote. It's an obvious point, I know, but one that is often ignored by the chattering classes on network and cable television - and even by those in the print media.  The state-by-state polls are what really matter. 

Secondly, the margins of error (MOEs) in any poll - national or state - are very important. These MOEs are typically in the range of plus or minus 3 to 5 percentage points. Thus, real voter sentiment can vary as much as six to ten points from what the raw poll numbers indicate. So far, we've seen only few national polls in the presidential race which give one candidate or the other a lead outside the margin of error.  The Washington Post/ABC News poll, released today and discussed in detail in the blog below, is a notable exception. Obama's nine point lead is well beyond that survey's three point (plus or minus) margin of error.

Finally, it is helpful to remember how many real voters these national poll numbers represent. Assuming that the turn-out in this year's election is at least as high as four years ago, each percentage point equates to roughly 1.3 million voters. So, a nine point lead in a national survey, such as we see in today's Washington Post/ABC News poll, equals over eleven million voters. No small potatoes, that.

National Poll: Obama By 9

A new Washington Post/ABC News Poll released this morning shows Barack Obama surging past John McCain to a 52-43 point lead nationally.  McCain's convention bounce gave him a two point lead two weeks ago, but that lead has now been erased as voters fear a worsening economy and the ongoing catastrophe on Wall Street.  

Highlights from the poll. View full polling data (pdf)

Obama leads 52-39 on the economy

Independents prefer Obama by 21 points on issues related to the economy

9% rate the economy as "good" or "excellent"


14% of voters believe the nation is heading in the right direction  (ties record low in 1973)


60% are worried about their own family finances


43% of independent women view Palin favorably compared to 65% last month (-22%)


62% of Obama supporters are "very enthusiastic" compared to just 34% for John McCain who feel the same way about his candidacy.

The State of the Race and Dispelling Media Myths

With the Democratic National Convention set to kick off in Denver, polls are being released galore to provide a baseline before the most condensed and eventful two weeks in recent political history commences. One poll that caught my attention today was the Washington Post/ABC News poll that was conducted late last week, it provides many details on a host of questions and shows that much of the media narrative is non-sense.

Let’s first get down to the pure brass tacks of the poll, which I consider one of the more reputable ones out there, mainly because they’re more transparent about their methodology and release detailed information broken down by demographic.

Obama leads McCain 48-42% in a four way contest (With Nader and Barr) among likely voters, which is basically where the race has been, sans some minor ebbs in both directions, for months. Despite the much talked about negative (and allegedly, effective) attacks by John Sidney McCain III, Obama still sports a 62-34% favorable rating (McCain’s is a robust 59-37% as well). In comparison, at this point in 2004, John Kerry’s favorable rating was only in the +10% range and never did exceed a 55% favorable rating…while Obama, after a much more bruising primary, is flirting with 2:1 territory and one that is extraordinary stable.

Let’s talk about some other myths that this poll puts to rest:

Obama isn’t connecting on the economy

He leads McCain on the economy by a 50-39% margin.

McCain is killing Obama on the drilling issue!

Obama leads 49-42% on Energy issues.

Additionally, Obama is keeping McCain’s advantage among terrorism to a mere 52-38% margin, is tied with him with Iraq and taxes; and sports a double digit lead in social issues.

Here’s another myth:

Obama is underperforming the usual Democratic strength among whites, women, and Hispanics.

While John Kerry lost whites by a 41-58% margin (From 1992-2004, the Democratic nominee ranged from 39-42% of the white vote), Obama only trails McCain 49-43% among whites; and that’s with a decent amount of undecideds and at least a fraction of those will break for Obama. Obama leads among women 55-37% over performing John Kerry, Al Gore, and Bill Clinton’s margin among females, sometimes by significant margins.

Of course, married women are a real weakness for Obama, right? All those angry Hillary supporters will harm his candidacy fatally, no? He leads 48-44, a group that voted for Bush by 11 points four years ago.

Well then, naturally whites making less than 50K are a weakness for Obama? Well he leads by a 49-40% margin, where Kerry lost this group by 7 points.
As for Hispanics, he overperforms Kerry by a significant margin as well, leading 61-27% among the group that Kerry only got 57% with. A particular strong showing against a Southwestern Senator from a border state, who is a moderate on immigration.

Obama has even made significant strides among traditionally Republican voters. While George Bush won White Evangelicals by a 78-21% margin, Obama has cut the GOP advantage to a 65-27% margin; a near twenty point swing. He is also polling double what John Kerry did among self-described Republicans. While he still faces insurmountable deficits among those groups, in a close election those are significant number of votes gained.

While I know the storyline of working class white Americans and other groups that Obama underperformed with in the primary not supporting a black candidate is intriguing, it just isn’t based in the data.

While, it is still a tight race, it is a static one and one that still favors Senator Obama. This race has potential to be fluid soon though, with two conventions in the next ten days. But for now, the media coverage is fundamentally not honest. No wonder, since the media is in the tank for John Sidney McCain III. And why wouldn’t they be? He cooks BBQ for them at his retirement estate in Sedona, AZ.

But let’s be honest about the state of the race.

Media Reports All Point to Biden as VP

Reports from several major media outlets all point to Delaware Senator Joe Biden as Barack Obama's choice of a running mate:

- several hours ago, NBC News' Andrea Mitchell reported she had learned that both VA Governor Tim Kaine and Indiana Senator Evan Bayh had been informed by the Obama campaign that neither would be be the Democratic Veep nominee;

- two hours later, CNN confirmed the same information: Kaine and Bayh were out;

- within the past hour, ABC News is reporting that a detail of US Secret Service agents have been dispatched to Biden's Delaware home.

This is looking more and more conclusive. It seems a near certainty now that Biden is the man. Of course, it's worthwhile noting that each of the major news organizations have been wrong before, but the the chances of someone other than Biden being tapped for the Democratic Vice-Presidential slot seem very remote indeed. 

Why doesn't my cell phone have a text message yet?