Campbell Blows the "Lidd" Off Outrageous Attack Ad

In a desperate attempt to save her US Senate seat in North Carolina, Republican Elizabeth ("Liddy") Dole has aired one of the most despicable political ads in recent memory. Democratic challenger, Kay Hagan, has surged ahead of Dole in recent Tarheel State polls. Apparently Ms. Dole will do or say anything to hold on to power, as evidenced by the attack ad which accuses Hagan of being "godless".

CNN's Campbell Brown calls Liddy out:

McCain Campaign Bails On Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa

CNN's John King is reporting that the McCain-Palin campaign is throwing in the towel on three key battleground states: Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa. In order to reach an electoral vote majority of 270, the Republican ticket is now going all-out for victories in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada and a very long shot come-back in Pennsylvania. 

Only by winning all six of these states does McCain have a chance at garnering the necessary electoral votes to secure the Presidency on November 4th. Talk about a 'Hail Mary' pass!   

h/p: Taegan Goddard

U.S. Senate Projection: Sixty Seats Within Grasp

A mere 22 days out and it’s time to look at the battle for the U.S. Senate and, much more importantly, the Democrats' effort to capture sixty seats in the Senate.

Nearly every top tier race has moved towards the Democrats.  Some races previously not on the radar are suddenly competitive (like Georgia), although a few longshots that Democrats once had hopes for (like Tennessee and Idaho) have faded to safe GOP territory. The only Democratic held seat that was initially thought to be competitive was in Louisiana where the perpetually endangered Mary Landrieu was in a tight race. Recent polling, however, shows Senator Landrieu moving into a comfortable lead.

Let’s run down the Senate seats in order of their likelihood to switch parties:

Virginia (Strong Democrat): Political writers have long run out of ways to say Mark Warner has a lock on this seat. He’s currently performing better among Republicans than Republican Jim Gilmore is among Independents. Retiring Senator John Warner (a Republican) is publicly still undecided. Ouch!

New Mexico (Strong Democrat): Congressman Tom Udall is running away with this Republican-held open seat over right-wing Congressman Steve Pearce. The nasty GOP primary between Pearce and Congresswoman Heather Wilson will likely cost the Republicans one or both of those House seats. The NRSC has already pulled out of New Mexico where Udall has consistently led by 15 points or more.

New Hampshire (Strong Democrat): Jeanne Shaheen jumped out to an early, big lead when she announced her candidacy against John Sununu, but the race has closed a bit as of late. Sununu is personally well-liked, a fact that might keep him from the fate that befell Pennsylvania's Rick Santorum two years ago. However, increasingly blue NH is no longer well-aligned with Sununu ideologically and Shaheen is still a solid favorite. The principal volatility in this race is provided by the Granite State’s large number of independent voters.

Colorado (Leans Democrat): Another Udall is likely to help the Democrats on their road to 60. This time it’s Colorado Congressman Mark Udall (Tom's cousin) who has posted somewhat narrow but still solid leads over “Big Oil” Bob Schaffer throughout the campaign. A just released poll from PPP has Udall over 50% with a 10 point advantage. If Udall wins, Colorado, like Virginia, will have gone from solid red territory only a few years ago to having two Democratic Senators and a Democratic Governor.

North Carolina (Leans Democrat): While initially considered a long-shot by many observers, Kay Hagan has opened up a solid lead over nationally known and prominent Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole. The DSCC has been hammering Dole with some of the best and toughest ads of the cycle and even top Republicans (and respected neutral observers like Chuck Todd) doubt she has much of a chance to come back.

Alaska (Leans Democrat): Despite some closing in polls, the presence of Sarah Palin on the ticket and the conventional wisdom that Stevens’s trial isn’t going as well as hoped for the prosecution, we still think Mark Begich has a slight edge in this contest. However, this race is unlikely to be a blowout (think Montana 2006). This is still a very fluid contest as Stevens' trial will likely be concluded by election day. He could be convicted or exonerated just as Alaska voters go to the polls. There are lots of variables in this one.

Oregon (Tossup): Jeff Merkley has been surging lately and Gordon Smith has been sinking. Smith still has a somewhat moderate profile and, up until fairly recently, Merkley’s campaign struggled to get traction. This is certainly one of the closest Senate races in the nation, but Merkley has the momentum and will certainly benefit from a strong Obama showing in the state. In the end, this contest could closely mirror the 2000 Washington State Senate race when Al Gore's coat-tails helped Maria Cantwell over the finish line to defeat then-incumbent Slate Gordon.

Minnesota (Tossup): I've long been extremely skeptical of Al Franken’s chances of unseating Norm Coleman, but I’ve slowly been proven wrong. Polling in this race has been very erratic with independent Dean Barkley’s candidacy making this race a nightmare to poll or predict. That said, however, the most recent numbers and the momentum are now on Franken’s side.  A recent brouhaha over Brooklyn-born Norm Coleman's suits (yes, his suits!) has not helped the incumbent Republican. Watch Coleman's campaign manager struggle in this painful press avail:

Kentucky (Tossup): Bruce Lunsford’s ability to make his campaign about the economy and McConnell's ties to Big Oil have made this race a surprising tossup in recent weeks. With a united Democratic Party behind him and plenty of money to compete down to the wire, Lunsford is waging a fierce battle against the current Republican incumbent and Senate Minority Leader. He might well pull off the upset of the 2008 election.

Mississippi (Tossup - barely): Interim Republican Senator Roger Wicker has failed to build a sustainable lead over former Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove in a race that should have been an easy GOP win. In fact, Wicker has been unable to get over the critical 50% mark in any of the recent polls. With economic issues at the forefront, Obama surging in national polls and a very large African-American turnout expected in rural Mississippi, Musgrove has a fighting chance to unseat Wicker.

Georgia (Tossup - barely): Probably the most surprising recent development in any Senate race has been the sudden tightening of the contest between incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss and Democratic challenger Jim Martin in the Peach State. It remains to be seen if Chambliss' considerable financial advantage (read: avalanche of TV spots) can help him regain the large lead he once had.  Although this race could still fairly be categorized as lean GOP, we are moving it to (barely) tossup not only because of the most recent polling but also on the strength of sky-high African-American turnout in early voting. This election may come down to Martin's ability to raise enough money to run an effective media campaign in a state where media buys are more expensive than in most of the rest of the southeast. ElectBlue has now added the Georgia race to our list of targeted US Senate contests.

Idaho (strong GOP): In spite of conservative third and fourth party candidates on the ballot, Republican Jim Risch seems to have attracted previously skeptical GOP voters in the race to fill the seat left vacant by retiring Republican Senator Larry 'wide-stance' Craig. Democratic candidate Larry LaRocco trails by double digits. 

Tennessee (strong GOP): Previously high hopes by Tennessee Democrats for Bob Tuke in his race against incumbent Republican Senator Lamar Alexander have evaporated. Underfunded and lacking a strong, united Democratic Party, the Tuke campaign has been stillborn. Look for a double digit Alexander win in the Volunteer State.

Although Senate races in Texas, South Carolina, Maine, Nebraska and Oklahoma have closed considerably in recent weeks, Republican incumbents in those states still look safe.

The DSCC’s path to 60 is still alive and well, just in mutated form. It's looking increasingly likely that Democrats could extend their majority to super-sixty by winning both Oregon and Minnesota.  Even more encouraging is the fact that Martin, Lunsford and Musgrove are all well positioned to surprise their Republican opponents in November.  These races are the new path to a filibuster-proof Senate majority for a President Barack Obama.

2008 Senate Race Projection

*Updated and current Senate projections can be found by navigating through the Elect Blue Index (left-top margin).  Senate projections will be updated weekly starting August 26th.

As of today, 7/23/08, here's my outlook on this year's senate races.

Democrats are projected to have at least a 55 seat majority in the senate after November's election. If you've been watching closely, 55 is the rock-bottom number Democrats are likely to have. Their goal: A filibuster proof majority, which is 60. They're unlikely to get to 60, but they could come close, and here's why.

Republicans have 23 seats up for grabs this year. Democrats only have 12. Of the twelve Democrat seats, only one is in play, and that's Landrieu's seat in LA. Unfortunately for her, thousands of Katrina victims (who would have voted for her) have relocated somewhere other than LA. She's led in every recent poll, but her opponent, John Kennedy, is on her heels. She's only been leading by four or five in most polls, and that's why this race is on everyone's watchlist.

Ugly Outlook For GOP

COLORADO 

A few have bucked my prediction that CO will go blue in 2008. Make no doubt about it, the DNC will pour a lot of Benjamins into this one. Republican, Wayne Allard, is pulling a Bill Frist by only running two terms. He's finished. Enter Democrat, Mark Udall. He's been running around 10 points ahead of his Republican challenger, Bob Schaffer. Democrats in CO elected a new Democratic governor in 2006 by 15%, and they also control the state house and senate. Bush won CO by 6%. This seat will turn blue in November.

NEW HAMPSHIRE 

What more is there to say except this is the end for John Sununu (R). His opponent,  Jeanne Shaheen has been crushing him by more than 10 points in the latest polls. The last Rasmussen poll has Shaheen leading by 14. Democrats have been picking off Republicans one by one over the last few years here too. Democrats, in 2006, won back both House seats, and for the first time since the 1870's, New Hampshire Democrats control both chambers of the state government. Adding on, Democrats reelected their Governor in 2006 by an enormous margin. NH went to Bush in 2000 and to Kerry in 2004. Democrats will pick up this seat too.

NEW MEXICO 

This is the blowout of all blowouts. Democratic Congressman, Tom Udall, is riding the wave over Republican, Steve Pearce. Unfortunately for Republicans, Pete Domenici has decided to not run for a seventh term (see also CO).   Polls have Udall leading anywhere from 20-25 points. This race has a lot of interesting twists and turns when you dig into which candidates put their hats in for this seat. Three Republicans, all of which held US House seats, gave up their posts to run in this race. Now, all those seats are open too. Gore won NM in 2000 but Bush beat Kerry here by just 365 votes.  Tom Udall is the cousin of CO's Mark Udall.

VIRGINIA 

If you're looking for things to get prettier for the GOP, better hit the back button while you can. Shut down the computer if you need to. Here in VA, we have governor vs. governor. Former Republican Governor, Jim Gilmore, is getting crushed by former Governor Mark Warner. Rasmussen's latest poll puts Warner ahead by 23, and every poll since September has him cruising anywhere from 25 to 30 points ahead. Why you ask? Same story as before. Changing demographics have led to a red state turning blue. In 2006, Republican incumbent, George Allen, was thumped by Democrat Jim Webb. And in 2005, Tim Kaine rode the coattails of a popular Warner into the Governor's mansion. The presidential race will be a barn burner for sure. It will be the closest percentage race in the nation in my opinion. The senate race on the other hand is a snoozer.

These are the races that should get Democrats to 55. I'm counting Sanders (I-VT) and Lieberman (I-CT) for Democrats because they almost always vote with Democrats procedurally (minus Lieberman on Iraq and Iran).  Starting with the closest races, here are the remaining tossup Senate seats.

Nightmare Scenario For GOP If These Seats Are Lost

It's 55 plus one for each of these races Democrats can manage to win.

ALASKA 

If you've heard of the Bridge to nowhere, you may know who Ted Stevens is. Polls over the last three months have been dead even between Stevens and his Democrat challenger, Mark Begich, but a Rasmussen poll released yesterday puts Begich up by 8. As important as the margin, it's the first poll in which either candidate has reached the 50% threshold with Begich polling at 52%. It's hard to imagine how Stevens is even in the game given his past. One year ago, the FBi raided his home and began an investigation into his dealings with a former oil contractor who was later convicted of bribery. Smells..or rather sounds like the Tennessee Waltz, right? Stevens would be 91 years old at the end of another term if reelected and has never received less than 66% of the vote. It's a "bridge" too far for Stevens to get even 55% this time. This one appears to be too close to call unless more polling data reveals Begich opening his lead.

MISSISSIPPI 

MS makes my head hurt because there are actually two senate races going on at the same time. Only one however is close. When Trent Lott resigned, Republican Governor Barbour appointed Roger Wicker to replace him. Previously, Wicker had been a Congressman for 13 years in MS-01. After his departure, the seat was taken over in a special election by Democrat Travis Childers. Things only get worse if Republicans lose Lott's seat. Wicker's challenger, Ronnie Musgrove is on Wicker's heels too. The last two polls are virtually tied (Musgrove +1 in June, Wicker +1 in July), and with the election still a hundred days away, both are slingin' Mississippi mud as if it were November 1st. It's bound to get nasty in the swamps. This race will be as close as any senate race this year. A barn-burner to be sure.

OREGON

Like Alaska, things were lookin' relatively safe for Republican, Gordon Smith until Democrat challenger, Jeff Merkley found himself leading by 2% in a Rasmussen poll released last Wednesday. June's poll had Smith winning by 9%. Smith's approach to winning reelection is an odd one to say the least. He's siding with Barack Obama. If you can't beat 'em, join, 'em, right? Actually, Obama isn't supporting Smith at all. In the coming weeks we should have a better grasp on where things are headed. Too close to call.

MINNESOTA

It's hard for me to take Al Franken serious. A lot of Minnesotans feel different though. Whether or not there are enough voters to support Franken remains to be seen however. There have been four polls since May, and three of four have incumbent Norm Coleman leading. The only Rasmussen poll shows Franken leading by 2%; however, it may be an outlier. The other three polls average to show Coleman leading by double digits. Survey USA's poll, released only a few days after Rasmussen's, shows Coleman up by 9%.  I'd be surprised if Franken pulls it off, but if there was ever a year to do it, it's 2008.

MAINE

Susan Collins is a middle of the road Republican who is popular in Maine. She's unlikely to be thrown to the wolves by Mainers, but her challenger, Tom Allen, is expected to keep things just close enough to make Collins get off her butt, raise money, and campaign. Collins promised to serve only two terms. Fortunately for Republicans, she's going back on that promise. I have strong doubts about Allen's chances, and I'm not even sure why this race is on anyone's watch list (although you'll find it on many).  He's not led in one poll, and Collins' average lead is somewhere around 12-15%.

NORTH CAROLINA

A few months ago, Democrat challenger, Kay Hagan, was turning heads. Numbers for Liddy Dole weren't looking so good. But things have changed since Dole began dumping money into the race. She also rearranged her staff back in May. Since then, the race has been favoring Dole so much that I doubt Hagen's chances. Regardless, I read somewhere the other day that Schumer has set aside $6 million for Hagen. She'll need it. This seat has been owned by Republicans for 35 years. Four published polls between June and July have Dole leading somewhere around 10% to 12%. An internal poll released by Hagan has Dole leading by just 4. Some believe Dole to be a complete ditz and others claim she's a terrible campaigner; nonetheless, I'm sticking with Dole for now on this one.

As for us here in Tennessee, Alexander is up for reelection, but the race hasn't been on anyone's radar. One reason is we haven't had our primary yet. Another is because Alexander is an incumbent in a very, very red state. Alexander will take on either Bob Tuke, former Tennessee DNC Chair, or the more moderate Knox County resident and businessman, Mike Padgett. I've never met Mike, but he told me in an email yesterday that he believes he has a better shot at taking down Alexander.  This seat may not be as "safe" as some are making it.  Ford Jr. made Corker sweat until the very end.  In a year when the Republican brand is as tarnished as ever, it may be possible..even in Red Tennessee..that Padgett or Tuke can make this one a horse race.

Other states that are safe for GOP: ID, WY, NE, KS, OK, TX, MS(Cochran), AL, SC, GA. McConnell's looking safe for now in KY, although he's still not polling at 50% which gives some reason for concern. He's been leading around 8-10%. The GA race may be one to not look too far away from either.

Safe for Democrats: MT, SD, IA, AR, IL, WV, DE, NJ, RI, MA.

Right now, it looks like Democrats are sitting on 57. I'm counting on AK and either OR or MS to come through. A lot could change though.