Tom Too!

Congratulations to Mark Udall, cousin of Tom Udall (who also won) in his victory tonight in Colorado over Republican Bob Schaffer. Another Democratic pickup.

New Polls: Obama Cruising In Battlegrounds

Leading amongst both women and men, whites and independents, Barack Obama continues to lead by large margins in four key battlegrounds according to a Quinnipiac press release this morning.  The entire press release including polling internals can be viewed here.

BATTLEGROUND RESULTS (conducted October 8-12)

COLORADO      Obama 52     McCain 43     (O+9)
MICHIGAN      Obama 54     McCain 38     (O+16)
MINNESTOA     Obama 51     McCain 40     (O+11)
WISCONSIN     Obama 54     McCain 37     (O+17)

Quinnipiac's Peter Brown:
“Sen. Obama’s leads in these four battleground states are as large as they have been the entire campaign. Those margins may be insurmountable barring a reversal that has never been seen before in the modern era in which polling monitors public opinion throughout the campaign.” 

“The only possible bright spot for Sen. McCain – and you would need Mary Poppins to find it in these numbers – is that he is holding roughly the same portion of the Republican vote. But McCain’s support among independent voters, a group he says are key to winning the White House, has collapsed.”

“Any realistic chance of McCain coming from behind depends on scoring a knockout in this week’s last debate. But given that he has been judged by the electorate to have lost both of the previous face-offs, that would seem to be a very tall order.”

“Obama’s surge comes from voters saying by wide margins that he better understands the economy. Moreover, about that many more say McCain has not shown effective leadership on the economy than has done so.”

WOMEN

COLORADO      Obama 54     McCain 38     (O+16)
MICHIGAN      Obama 60     McCain 32     (O+28)
MINNESOTA     Obama 57     McCain 34     (O+23)
WISCONSIN     Obama 59     McCain 33     (O+26)

MEN

COLORADO      Obama 49     McCain 47     (O+2)
MICHIGAN      Obama 48     McCain 44     (O+4)
MINNESTOA     Obama 46     McCain 46     (Even)
WISCONSIN     Obama 49     McCain 41     (O+8)

WHITE VOTERS

COLORADO      Obama 48     McCain 47     (O+1)
MICHIGAN      Obama 48     McCain 43     (O+5)
MINNESTOA     Obama 49     McCain 43     (O+6)
WISCONSIN     Obama 52     McCain 39     (O+13)

INDEPENDENTS

COLORADO      Obama 51     McCain 40     (O+11)
MICHIGAN      Obama 52     McCain 35     (O+17)
MINNESTOA     Obama 51     McCain 38     (O+13)
WISCONSIN     Obama 52     McCain 36     (O+16)

Rocky Mountain Blue

One good thing about election day getting closer is the glut of polls being released, particular on the state level. One such example is Colorado and the news in very good. In the Centennial State Barack Obama and Mark Udall are pulling away from John Sidney McCain III and Bob “Oil Man” Schaffer.

Three polls in the last week have come out of Colorado all of which show an Obama lead ranging from 4% to 10%. While the truth is likely somewhere in between (the PPP poll that has Obama up 7% sounds about right), the fact is that Obama is starting to open up a narrow, but substantial leads in the crucial state. Two polls were also released in the Senate race (an open seat being vacated by perpetually vulnerable Wayne Allard) between Congressman Mark Udall and former Congressman and "Oil Man" Bob Schaffer. Both polls show Udall with a comfortable lead of 48-40%. Colorado has been tight all year. Polls have mostly shown Udall with a 2-4% lead and have indicated that the Presidential race is more or less a dead heat. The Centennial State is typically Republican in national elections.  John Kerry is the only Democratic Presidential nominee to exceed 45.3% of the vote there since 1964. However, Colorado has trended blue the last couple cycles with Democrats taking over the Governorship, a Senate seat and a seat in Congress.  It was also the site of the Democratic Convention last month.

Colorado and its nine electoral votes is key to this Presidential election and completely necessary to the Democrats’ chances of attaining a filibuster proof majority in the Senate. As of right now, an Obama win in Colorado would put John McCain in an extremely tough position in the electoral college. McCain would not only have to sweep the remaining swing states that Bush won in 2004 (Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida), but he would also need to win either Michigan or Pennsylvania (or at least one of the much less likely Wisconsin and Minnesota duo) just to have a chance to get to 270 electoral votes.

Help turn Colorado blue by helping Barack Obama and Mark Udall!

Fresh Off the Press: Quinnipiac Battleground Polls

Quinnipiac has just released polling data from four battleground states: Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin. The entire 26 page press release includes more analysis and internals and can be found on the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute's home page.

Some analysis from the poll.

"By 19 – 24 point margins, voters in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin say Democrat Barack Obama, not Republican John McCain, is the candidate of change, helping lift Sen. Obama into the lead in these battleground states, according to four simultaneous Quinnipiac University polls of likely voters in these battleground states, conducted in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com and released today."

COLORADO: Obama 49 – McCain 45

"Obama leads 55 – 40 percent among Colorado women likely voters, while men back McCain 49 – 42 percent. White voters back McCain 51 – 44 percent as Hispanic voters go with Obama 68 – 26 percent. Obama and McCain are tied 48 – 48 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old, while voters 35 to 54 back Obama 52 – 42 percent. Voters over 55 go 47 percent with McCain and 46 percent with Obama.

Obama will bring change, 46 percent of voters say, while 22 percent say McCain will bring change and 26 percent say neither candidate will bring change.

But by a 49 – 42 percent margin, voters would rather see Biden as President. Women pick Biden 52 – 37 percent while men go 46 percent to Palin and 45 percent Biden.

In the U.S. Senate race, U.S. Rep. Mark Udall, the Democrat, leads Republican Robert Schaffer 48 – 40 percent, compared to a 44 – 44 percent tie July 24."

MICHIGAN: Obama 48 - McCain 44

"Michigan women voters back Obama 52 – 40 percent, while men back McCain 49 – 44 percent. White voters back McCain 51 – 41 percent, as black voters support Obama 93 – 5 percent. The Democrat leads 51 – 48 percent among voters 18 to 34, and gets 47 percent of voters 35 to 54 to McCain’s 45 percent. Voters over 55 back Obama 49 – 41 percent.

Obama rather than McCain is the candidate of change, voters say 43 – 21 percent.
Palin’s selection is a good choice, voters say 58 – 32 percent, while these same voters say 51 – 30 percent that Biden is a good choice.

By a 47 – 42 percent margin, voters would rather see Biden as President. Women back Biden 50 – 38 percent while men go 47 percent for Palin and 45 percent for Biden.

The economy is the most important issue, 58 percent of Michigan voters say, and Obama understands it better, voters say 50 – 38 percent. McCain understands foreign policy better, voters say 64 – 26 percent.  

'Sen. Obama’s lead in Michigan is built upon two key changes since the last Quinnipiac University poll: He has consolidated the Democratic base to the same degree that Sen. McCain has coalesced the Republican vote, and his lead among those who see the economy as the most important issue has almost doubled, from 50 – 39 percent to 55 – 35 percent,' Brown said."

MINNESOTA: Obama 47 - McCain 45

"Obama leads McCain 49 – 43 percent with women, while men go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama. White voters go with McCain 48 – 44 percent. Voters 18 to 34 years go 51 – 43 percent for Obama. Voters 35 to 54 go 51 – 43 percent for McCain, with the Democrat up 50 – 40 percent among voters over 55.  

Obama rather than McCain is the candidate of change, voters say 43 – 24 percent.
Palin is a good choice, voters say 56 – 35 percent and Biden is a good choice, these voters say 52 – 31 percent. They would rather see Biden step up as President, voters say 50 – 41 percent, including women 49 – 39 percent and men 50 – 43 percent.

The economy is the biggest issue, 55 percent of voters say. Voters tie 45 – 45 percent on who better understands the economy, but say 66 – 24 percent that McCain understands foreign policy better.

In the Minnesota U.S. Senate race, Republican incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman tops Democrat Al Franken 49 – 42 percent, compared to 53 – 38 percent July 24.

'Sen. John McCain is within striking distance in Minnesota for two reasons: Republicans held their convention in the state and the selection of Gov. Sarah Palin brought a new wave of independent women to the GOP ticket, offsetting a big swing by independent men to Obama,' said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

'Al Franken now trails Sen. Norman Coleman by seven points, down from 15, mainly because Democratic support for Coleman has dropped eight points from 19 points in the last poll.'"

WISCONSIN: Obama 49 - McCain 42

Wisconsin women voters back Obama 53 – 37 percent while men back McCain 48 – 45 percent. Obama leads 55 – 38 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 47 – 44 percent among voters 35 to 54 years old and 49 – 43 percent among voters over 55.

Obama rather than McCain is the candidate of change, voters say 45 – 22 percent.

Palin is a good choice, voters say 57 – 33 percent and Biden is a good choice, voters say 47 – 33 percent. Voters prefer Biden as President 46 – 42 percent. Women prefer Biden 47 – 37 percent while men back Palin by a narrow 46 – 44 percent.

The economy is the biggest issue, 51 percent say, and Obama understands it better, voters say 47 – 40 percent. McCain understands foreign policy better, voters say 65 – 23 percent. 

Electoral Update - Obama Catches Momentum

If your head hurts from analyzing so many polls over the past week, you're not alone. By our count there have been 99 polls released since last Friday.  American Research Group, in the last two days, has released 30 of their own including perhaps the only D.C. poll we'll ever see between now and election day (Obama 82 McCain 13). Why bother, right?

In nine weeks, we've noticed essentially no movement up or down for Obama, almost as if there's an unbreakable ceiling around the 268-273 mark. Blame Florida which has been leaning McCain since the beginning of August. Obama's also had a tough time gaining momentum in Ohio. With Ohio, Florida, and a handful of traditionally red states now leaning toward McCain, it's easy to see why the Arizona Senator has surged over the last few weeks.

Here's a look at the electoral movement over the past seven days. 

Obama 273 (+5)

• Gain:  New Mexico (5) where the last four polls show Obama with significant leads, two of which show a 7 point margin.

McCain 232 (-8)

• Gain:  Nevada (5) where he's led in every poll since the end of the Republican convention.
  
• Loss:  McCain loses Virginia (13) to tossup.

In recent days, national polling has revealed a significant shift back in favor of Barack Obama. This comes as no surprise given the this week's bad news on Wallstreet. However, the shift in state-to-state polling shows less movement. This may be because several of the state polls were conducted during or prior to the market meltdown. For example, the Big 10 Battleground Pennsylvania poll showing the race as tied, was conducted 9/14 - 9/17. It's not possible to know how many voters were sampled prior to the bad market news.

Last week, we asked three important questions, two of which were related to Palin's impact.

1.  Can John McCain sustain his current numbers?

At this point, it appears the answer is no.  And the reasons why are plenty.  The slipping economy, convention bounce falls back to earth, Palin's newness wearing off, regulation/deregulation flip-flops, and more McCain gaffes.  Is McCain in big trouble? As McCain does damage control over the weekend, he'll also try to regain momentum. But what strategies does he have left?  The negative ads he ran just days ago seem to have backfired, so that option may be off the table. Running on the issues will be tough given the Republican brand. Palin's shiny new appeal is wearing off, not to mention he can't let her speak for fear of her assuming she's at the top of the ticket! Don't be surprised if McCain tries to shift the focus to foreign policy and Iraq again.

2. Can Obama hang on to the Kerry states?

While there has been plenty of good news lately to rejoice about in the Obama camp, they have also noticed some slippage in places where losing would be disastrous.  Moderate leads in PA, MI, MN, and WI have slipped to razor thin margins (1-3 points) according to a couple of recent polls.  Two polls in PA show the race tied and one in MN reveals similar results. It will be interesting to see if state polling catches up to the latest round of national polls.

3.  Is there a page two of the Palin story?

The love affair is over, and Palin's favorable numbers have fallen like a rock. With each passing day, there's another news story about Palin.  And the news is not good [see more]. Page 3? Page 4? The number gurus at Fivethirtyeight.com answer this question thoroughly.

McCain's other problem is that Sarah Palin may no longer be an asset to the ticket; in fact, she may be a liability. Averaging the candidates' favorability scores across four recent polls -- as one should always try and do when looking at favorability numbers since they can vary greatly depending on question wording -- Palin now has the worst net scores among the four principals in the race:


Palin's average favorability score is now a +7 -- about 10 points behind Joe Biden's numbers. Perhaps more importantly, these numbers are 10-15 points behind where Palin's numbers were just a week or so ago. If voters come in not knowing very much about a candidate -- and the more they see of the candidate, the less they like of the candidate -- this is a major concern.

Battleground States

Several projection models around the country this week show large numbers of tossup states. Our model is based on an analysis of several polls as opposed to a knee-jerk reaction to just one or two. For example, we've decided to keep Minnesota in the Obama column for the moment because of national movement favoring him. Even more, McCain has never led in Minnesota. New Hampshire follows the same pattern where just two polls have been conducted since the close of the RNC. One recent poll shows McCain leading by three; however, that is his first lead in NH since May. If trends develop, we'll make adjustments.

What's happening in Pennyslvania?

Two polls in PA since last week show the race as dead even: Rasmussen and Big 10 Battleground. This flies in the face of recent national polling. This may be the result of both polls being conducted before the Wallstreet Crisis. Obama may need to call in Bill and Hillary to help bring "lunch bucket Democrats" into the fold. Biden, from PA, also plays a role in securing PA's 21 electoral votes.  We'll move PA to tossup if any other polling suggests the race as tied or McCain leading.

Rockin' Pollin' Ohio

Unless something breaks for one side or the other, we may just keep Ohio in the tossup column until our last projection. Both sides have reasons to be cautiously optimistic.  For McCain, there have been eight polls conducted in the last three days, six of which he's leading.  Obama is hoping for some traction after two consecutive polls show him leading here.  Neither candidate has been able to break the race wide open, and it's unlikely either will.  More polls have been conducted in Ohio than any other state since the party conventions ended (13 since September 9th).  Obama can claim the White House simply by winning Ohio and hanging on to the Kerry states.

Meet Virginia Tossup

All year long, polling has suggested a tight race in Virginia.  All the sudden, we have numbers all over the place. In the past week, the race has been shown to be anywhere from Obama leading by two to McCain leading by nine. Two polls show the race as tied.

Colorado & New Mexico (Obama's Backup)

The best news of the week for Obama may be that he's still protecting his lead in Colorado and expanding his lead in New Mexico. In Colorado, voters have been surveyed seven times since the close of the RNC, and Obama has led in five of those polls by an average of four points. He's also led in the last two consecutive polls, one by ten points. In New Mexico, Obama has led in three consecutive polls by seven or eight points.

45 Days...

We are at another turning point in the campaign where Obama has an opportunity to extend his lead. McCain's gaffes and flipflops could be catching up to him.  Palin's plunge isn't helping either. If national numbers continue to hold up for Obama, will the battlegrounds show equal movement? 

While it's clear there's been a momentum shift back in Obama's favor, one week is a lifetime in American politics.  The last time McCain needed a jolt to his campaign, he shocked everyone with Palin. If at some point, the campaign begins to slip away, he may just pull another fast one. 

Looking to next week, John McCain probably can't wait until the first debate, which will focus on foreign policy and national security. He's proven, thus far, to be a better speaker than many thought he'd be in the forums we've seen so far. The expectations won't be high for McCain so even a mediocre performance is sure to get high marks from his surrogates (Ditto Palin). 

Next Friday's debate between Obama and McCain, moderated by Jim Lehrer, begins at 9:00 pm EST and can be watched on most major networks.  Third party candidates will not be included as none have reached a 15% minimum polling requirement (in five polls) as mandated by the Commission on Presidential Debates.

Electoral Update - McCain Closes In

In our seventh Electoral Projection, John McCain continues to climb the electoral ladder, adding another 19 electoral votes to his total.  McCain, with 240 electoral votes, is closer now than ever to Obama (268).  There are now just three tossup states on the map. Nevada, New Mexico, and Ohio, all of which George Bush won in 2004, are too close to call.

Virginia (13) continues to be a key battleground although there does appear to be a tiny shift toward John McCain. According to a recent CNN/Time poll, McCain is beating Obama by 9 points with Independent voters in Virginia.  It should also be noted that this same poll is the first to show either candidate with a lead outside of the margin of error (50-46) since May. Three consecutive polls now put McCain ahead in Virginia, thereby shifting its status from tossup to leaning McCain.

McCain Picks Up Montana, North Dakota & Alaska

The addition of Sarah Palin has without a doubt electrified the Republican base.  Montana (3), previous to Palin, was thought by many to be in play.  One July poll showed Obama leading and another had both candidates tied. The newest polling by Rasmussen now shows an 11 point lead for McCain. 

The story is the same in North Dakota (3) where the race was competitive prior to Palin's entrance. Rasmussen's latest poll now show's a 14 point lead for McCain. Women, who previously favored Obama by 9 points now favor John McCain by 11. Independents have also shifted toward McCain.  It's safe to assume that Alaska (3) be a lock for McCain too.

Obama Picks Up Colorado, loses New Mexico

Barack Obama shows a net gain of four electoral votes this week.  New Mexico polling before the close of the Republican convention consistently favored Barack Obama.  A new poll now suggests McCain leading by just two points, well within the poll's +/- 4% margin of error.  New Mexico shifts from Obama to tossup.

Obama's lead in Colorado (9) mirrors that of John McCain's in Virginia. Polling in both states shows both candidates leading in three consecutive polls, albeit by small margins. Although McCain has undoubtedly benefited from a convention bounce in most states, there doesn't appear to be one in Colorado. The most recent polling in Colorado, by Insider Advantage, suggests that Obama still leads among Independent voters. The same poll also shows Obama leading McCain with women and men by the same margin, 49-46.  Obama also does well with Hispanics according to a recent PPP poll (58-34).  Colorado moves from tossup to Obama.

Pollsters have been busy in Michigan (17) lately.  Five polls have been conducted since the close of the Republican convention, and three of the five show the race as a statistical dead heat. McCain leads in the most recent Insider Advantage poll, his first lead here since May.

In seven weeks, McCain has added 65 electoral votes to his total. Barack Obama, who had 268 electoral votes in our first projection, has neither gained nor lost any ground. Most of McCain's surge can be attributed to his success in solidifying the Conservative base. This is especially true in traditional Republican strongholds where McCain's support was once soft (MT, ND, AK, IN). Now, with Palin on the ticket, the electoral map is shaking out to look more like what it did in 2000 and 2004. Colorado (Bush 2004 +5%) and Virginia (Bush 2004 +8%) the two exceptions so far. For Obama, he absolutely must hang on to the Kerry states. He then must find a way to capture 17 electoral votes from states where Bush won in 2004*.  Obama appears to have a solid lead in IA (7). Ten more?  Any combo of CO (9), NM (5), and NV (5) would put him over the goal-line.  Florida (27) and/or Ohio (20) all by themselves get the job done too.  This is by no means the only scenario that Obama can win.  It is however the most likely scenario at this point in the race. [CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE]

* Kerry received 251 electoral votes (19 short).  However, Kerry would have received 252 had one elector from MN not voted for John Edwards (18 short of 270). If Obama wins the Kerry states plus 17 electoral votes from Bush states, both candidates tie 269-269. Obama is certain to win in the event of a tie as the state delegations in the U.S. House favor Democrats.  Read more here about 269-269 scenarios.

 

The big questions going forward are:

• Can John McCain sustain his current numbers?  Much has been heard of the WalMart moms who are suddenly excited about Palin.  But if history is any indication, veep choices rarely matter.  Will Palin change all that?  Yes, she has a compelling story, but will that be enough to really sway voters?
• Can Obama hang on to the Kerry states?  John McCain's hopes of winning this election ride almost entirely on Ohio and Florida.  Losing ground in either one could spell disaster for McCain.  For Obama, sustaining his leads in states where John Kerry won is absolutely necessary.  So far, Obama has protected these states, but Michigan is very close.  Wisconsin is not far behind.
  
• Is there a page two of the Palin story?  It's all or nothing with Sarah Palin.  And John McCain can't keep Sarah Palin from the press forever. What more will we learn about Palin as the days and weeks go on? It's likely that McCain has gained the maximum potential out of Palin alone. What goes up usually comes down, even in politics. How much down remains yet to be seen. 

Electoral Update - Making History In The Last Frontier

The fallout from the Ted Stevens scandal may be far greater than the loss of one senate seat.  A new Hays Research poll in Alaska now shows Democrat Barack Obama leading there by five points.

It's been a very long time since Alaska was considered a swing state. In fact, Alaska has only once, ever, gone Democratic since becoming a state in 1959.  Could Barack Obama become the first Democrat to win Alaska since Lyndon Johnson?

Even before the Stevens brouhaha, McCain was on thin ice.  Most polls throughout the summer showed the Arizona Senator with only a five or six point lead. Comparing those numbers to the 30 point victories for George Bush in 2000 and 2004 gives Alaskan Democrats plenty of reason to believe their state may finally turn blue.  

ALASKA RESULTS  (source:  Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections)

2000	Bush 58.6%	Gore 27.7%	Bush + 30.9%
2004	Bush 61.1%	Kerry 32.5%	Bush + 28.6%

We should also point out that Mark Begich has also made tremendous gains since Stevens, his opponent, was formally charged with seven felony counts of failing to disclose gifts received from an oil contractor.  The last time a Democrat captured a US Senate seat in Alaska was 1974.  Could Democrats be on the verge of making history in The Last Frontier?  More on that in next Thursday's Balance of Power Projection.

Besides Alaska, the race essentially remains unchanged. The slight electoral changes over the last two weeks represent subtle nuances in the methodology we use to assign a state. As our writer LibraryPolitico said just days ago, the race remains static.

A Rasmussen poll yesterday shows McCain leading by a single point in Colorado, well within the margin of error (5%).  This is the second poll in the last three weeks showing McCain with a small lead.  Obama and McCain have split the last four polls, which is why we've moved this state from leaning Obama to tossup.  My guess is that Colorado, along with Virginia and Ohio, will remain very close all the way to election day.