Happy Thanksgiving From ElectBlue!

We at ElectBlue hope you and your loved ones have a wonderful Thanksgiving!

Exactly the right tone for this holiday season is struck by the President-elect and his family as they volunteered earlier today at a Chicago food bank for the less fortunate.

Now that is leadership we can believe in!

Gallup: Overwhelming Majority of Americans Support Madame Secretary

According to a newly-released Gallup Poll, an overwhelming majority of Americans like the idea of Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) becoming the next Secretary of State. 

In the survey conducted on November 18th, some 57% of those questioned indicated they favor the idea of Clinton serving as President-elect Obama's top diplomat. 

Only 30% said they opposed the notion of the junior Senator from New York being in charge of the State Department.

Looks like Hillary has a big green light from the American people! 

Obama's First Video Address

President-Elect Obama will be communicating every week with the nation in a radio/video address. Say goodbye to radio only. Obama will continue his weekly address in video format throughout his presidency.

Obama Cabinet Speculation

A thorough list from First Read.

Yes We Can!

ElectBlue congratulates 

President-Elect Barack Obama.

Trailer for Obama's TV Message Tonight

Here's a brief excerpt from Senator Obama's television broadcast tonight:

Electoral Projection: Tightening the Vice

John McCain hasn't found the game changer he's been looking for. For McCain, game changers probably don't exist unless you count Sarah Palin. One could argue that she changed the course of McCain's campaign from the very beginning. McCain's sinking ship has been on the wrong course from the very moment he chose Palin as his running mate. When all is said and done, historians might look at the Palin pick as one of those rare moments when the veep pick actually did matter.

Over the last few weeks, we've witnessed very little change in polling. What small gains there may have been for John McCain have now evaporated (see dead cat bounce). Regular national polls and daily trackers are all now starting to come together for the first time. All of them have the race close to or at double digits. State polling continues to favor Obama as well. 

From our last projection, John McCain loses 14 electoral votes while Barack Obama's score remains unchanged. Polls in North Dakota and Indiana put the race at a dead heat. As a result, both states shift from leans McCain to tossup this week. Voters in North Dakota have been surveyed just three times in October. Obama has led in two of those polls while one other shows the race a tie. Polls back home in Indiana show a close race although Obama has led in three of the last four. 

Although we're not adding any states to Obama's total, he has strengthened his lead in these states:  New Mexico, Minnesota and Maine. As a result, these states move from leans Obama to solid Obama.  We now show Obama with a solid lead in all of the Kerry/Gore states (264 electoral votes).

McCain's sole route to 270 now runs through Pennsylvania. For him to win there, it will take even more than a game changer. Something along the lines of divine order may be McCain's only hope. The latest polls in the Keystone state show Obama gripping a double digit lead.

Happy Days Are Here Again

Barack Obama strikes a very FDR-like tone in this, his campaign's latest television ad. Just released this morning, it's called 'Defining Moment'.

John Sidney McCain III: Out of Money

To paraphrase a certain former Secretary of Defense: "You go through the last two weeks of the election with the ad buys you have, not the ones you might want."

Who would have thought the Republican nominee for President would be flat broke going into the homestretch of the Presidential campaign? But, according to the Associated Press, John Sidney McCain III is just that.

The AP is reporting that according to his campaign's pre-general election report (which runs until October 15th) that after his outstanding debts McCain only has around $24 million left in the bank. Furthermore, through their rather conservative projections they estimate that as of this writing that number is now closer to $12 million (no word on Obama's current cash on hand take yet, but it's expected to be exponentially higher). No wonder he's trimming and even drastically cutting ad buys across the board in states he must win. The decision to take public financing, even his former aides such as Bob Shrum admit, ruined John Kerry's chances in 2004 (their decision to take public financing made them unable to counter the Swift Boat attacks); and they seem to have put a real damper of John Sidney McCain's chances as well.

Keep in mind that McCain is still relying heavily on RNC ad money to keep him visible on the air, but he still is in a tough situation financially speaking, as those ads are not subject to the same discounts from TV stations as candidate ads are. Also, look for the RNC to divert money to key Senate and House races in the coming days.

No wonder McCain's top aides are already quite literally updating their resumes.

Make sure Barack Obama and Senate Democrats have the funds they need to make it through election day.

The Past As Prologue

A brilliantly crafted little video, featuring (would you believe?) the most popular Republican President of the last one hundred years:

h/t: PostPolitics

Obama Signs Draped Over Dead Bear in NC

The Asheville Citizen-Times is reporting that a bear cub was found dead with two Obama signs draped over it. The bear was found on the campus of Western Carolina University. 

An official with the WCU Police Department could not immediately comment on the investigation or say whether or not the identity of the person responsible was known. The same official however did offer this formal response.

"Western Carolina University deplores the inappropriate behavior that has led to this troubling incident. We cannot speculate on the motives of the people involved or who those people might be."

The statement further acknowledged that campus police are cooperating with other law enforcement authorities.

Full story here.

Today's Tracking Polls: Up a Point Here, Down a Point There

Here are the tracking poll results for today, October 20th.

Gallup Daily Tracking:  Obama 52%, McCain 41%

Rasmussen Daily Tracking:  Obama 50%, McCain 46%

Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracking:  Obama 47%, McCain 42%  

Research 2000 Daily Tracking:  Obama 50%, McCain 42%

Newspaper Endorsements

Here's a list of newspaper endorsements for both Obama and McCain

OBAMA

Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Austin American-Statesman

Chicago Sun-Times

Chicago Tribune

Cleveland Plain Dealer

Concord Monitor (NH)

Denver Post

Detroit Free-Press

Houston Chronicle

Kansas City Star

Las Vegas Sun

Miami Herald

Nashua Telegraph (NH)

New York Daily News

Philadelphia Inquirer (Majority)

Portland Oregonian

Raleigh News & Observer

San Francisco Chronicle

John McCain

Columbus Dispatch

Dallas Morning News

Las Vegas Review-Journal

Philadelphia Inquirer (Dissent)

San Antonio Express-News

San Diego Union-Tribune

Tampa Tribune

Breaking News - Colin Powell: I'm Voting for Obama

Former Secretary of State, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, four-star General and prominent Republican, Colin Powell has endorsed Democrat Barack Obama for President.  

Speaking on NBC's Meet The Press this morning, Powell made known his intention to vote for the Illinois Senator. 

Electoral Update - Running Up the Score

Leading up to the third and final presidential debate on Wednesday, Barack Obama was outdistancing John McCain by margins wide enough to make Bill Clinton jealous. The headlines lately haven't had as much to do with Obama winning  as they have how much he would win by.

After a barrage of polls over the past month, yesterday was one of the quietest state polling days of the year. Daily tracking polls have indicated a small shift toward McCain but nothing significant enough to change momentum. While everyone anticipates the results of post-debate polling, nothing lately has given us reason to make any changes from our projection on Tuesday. Obama still leads John McCain 338-174.  Two states, North Carolina (15) and Missouri (11), account for 26 tossups.

By a 2:1 margin, voters thought Obama won the last debate. However, the possibility of John McCain picking up one to two points isn't out of the question. Obama's 8-10 point lead for several days may have included a few disgruntled Republicans who were biting their tongues. They may now feel as if McCain rescued them by what they heard during McCain's exercise in anger management. Regardless, by Tuesday of next week, nobody will remember the debate or Sam the Handyman (aka Joe the Plummer).

Barack Obama's newest strategy to run up the score is bad news for John McCain and other vulnerable Republicans down the ticket. McCain doesn't have the money to adequately defend himself in Indiana, Missouri, Georgia, West Virginia, North Carolina, Virginia and Nevada while at the same time run an effective campaign in Florida and Ohio. Obama can compete anywhere he pleases and then some. Already today, we're learning that John McCain is behind in key counties across Ohio, Missouri, Pennsylvania and Virginia. As we've said before, Virginia is McCain's biggest nightmare.

This is beginning to sound like a broken record, but we'll say it again. John McCain has to win both Florida and Ohio. Even then, both states only get him a ticket to 11 p.m. on election night. Anything other than an all in move in Ohio and Florida is sure to end his chances. This has been and always will be his most essential priority for his campaign. Today, John McCain is campaigning Miami and Melbourne, Florida. Obama is in Roanoke, Virginia.

By the time we make our next projection (Tuesday), we may have an answer as to whether or not Colin Powell is going to endorse Barack Obama or not. He's appearing on Meet the Press on Sunday. We will also have a good idea whether or not McCain made up any ground from his debate performance. For now, we're just 18 days away from the CHANGE we need.

Republican Senator Endorses Obama's Approach To Diplomacy

Ranking Republican and long-time US Senator, Richard Lugar, has endorsed Barack Obama's 'diplomacy' according to Congressional Quarterly. 

“He correctly cautions against the implication that hostile nations must be dealt with almost exclusively through isolation or military force. In some cases, refusing to talk can even be dangerous.”

"If most U.S. foreign policy attention is devoted to crises fomented by hostile regimes, we are ceding the initiative to our enemies and reducing our capacity to lead the world in ways that are more likely to affect our future.”

Lugar and Obama have worked together extensively in the area of nuclear nonproliferation. In 2007, the President signed the Lugar-Obama Proliferation and Threat Reduction Initiative into law. 

Battleground Newspapers Endorse Obama

Three newspapers located within key battlegrounds have endorsed Barack Obama this morning. Here's Forward with Obama from the Toledo Blade.

For guidance in arriving at this momentous decision, the election of the next president of the United States, we can look to the sober lessons of history. Without exaggeration, the country faces a transformational election on Nov. 4, not unlike that of 1932, which prefaced Franklin Delano Roosevelt's New Deal and a long slog out of the Great Depression.

Like the choice 76 years ago, next month's election is one in which voters have the power to cast aside the failed, greed-driven principles of governance and economics that have led to the current downturn and return to an equilibrium in which hard work is again rewarded by a decent standard of living for the average American.

To be sure, the path to recovery won't be easy for the next president. There are ominous signs that the economy will continue to falter before confidence can be restored in the financial system. The leadership required to contain and reorder the economic mess created by eight years of heedless deregulation will have to be both inspired and inspiring.

We believe the person best equipped by temperament and intellect to firmly grasp the reins of government and guide it safely forward in these uncertain times is Barack Obama.

Like another member of Congress from Illinois, Abraham Lincoln, Senator Obama initially rose to prominence on the strength of soaring oratory. Over the past 18 months of the grueling campaign, his background has been thoroughly inspected and dissected by the press and a political opposition dedicated to keeping him from the White House.

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette says we need a President who will break from the past.

St. Louis Post-Dispatch: Barack Obama of Illinois should be the next President of the United States."

h/t: Hotline

Nevada Poll: Obama 47 - McCain 45

A new Mason-Dixon poll  this morning shows Barack Obama making gains in Nevada. A previous Mason-Dixon poll from August showed John McCain leading by seven points.

"Since that time, the undecided number has shrunk by 9 percent and pretty much the entire swing has gone to Obama, noted Mark Peplowski, a political scientist at the College of Southern Nevada. 'Unless something happens to take the focus off the dismal state of the economy, he said, he would expect the trend to continue to favor Obama.

"All other things being equal, undecideds tend to swing toward the candidate they view as an instrument of change," he said. "If you were to take another survey this weekend, you would probably find an even bigger bump for Obama."

In Clark County, the Democratic stronghold that is home to more than 70 percent of the state's population, Obama led by 50 percent to 42 percent. Just as predictably, McCain led in rural Nevada, 55 percent to 38 percent.

But in Washoe County, once a Republican stronghold, McCain had 46 percent of the vote, Obama 45 percent.

Obama Acknowledges McCain for Drawing the Line

Barack Obama this morning in Pennsylvania acknowledged Senator McCain for taking a stand against a few of his disrespectful supporters.

"I want to acknowledge that Senator McCain tried to tone down the rhetoric at his town hall meeting yesterday," Obama said, referring to a raucous gathering where voters urged McCain to get tough on Obama. "I appreciated his reminder that we can disagree while still being respectful of each other."

The New York Times has the story today.

Electoral Update - McCain's Slow Motion Implosion

Last week, John McCain was on the brink of disaster. Today, his campaign is a disaster.

With just 31 days left until Election Day, John McCain's campaign is collapsing. For two weeks, several national polls have shown a growing momentum for Barack Obama. Swing state polling however had been slow to show the same effect..until now.

McCain's bread and butter (Florida and Ohio) are now toast. The collapse is especially visible in Florida where seven polling organizations in the last week have conducted surveys.  Six of the seven show Obama leading by three to seven points. For the first time since our first projection, Florida now leans Obama. As for Ohio, Obama is gaining there too; however, the contest in the Buckeye state remains very close. As promised, we intend to keep Ohio in the tossup column until a clear leader emerges.

We also made the same promise about Virginia. Virginia (13) has remained in the tossup column for the whole year except for the week directly after the RNC when we projected McCain to be leading. Since our last projection, three of five polls show Obama passing McCain with numbers at or above the 50% mark. ARG, who shows a three point edge for McCain, has often been erratic in 2008 (see RCP's response to Nate Silver), and Mason-Dixon also found McCain to be leading in their last poll on 9/22. But given what we know about Obama's surge in national averages and polling in neighboring North Carolina (15), we project Virginia to be leaning slightly for Obama.

Florida (27) + Ohio (20) = 47

Florida and Ohio are absolutely necessary for John McCain to win. Even with those states, getting to 270 will be difficult given what we know about Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, and McCain's busted hope on Michigan. As my good friend and fellow blogger Stephen Moody said earlier:

"The abandonment of a serious effort in Michigan further complicates an increasingly difficult challenge for the McCain campaign to garner the necessary 270 electoral votes for a victory on Nov. 4th. Now more than ever, both Florida and Ohio have become must-wins for the GOP ticket."

Obama's momentum is broad and deep and is evident in three of the categories we use for our projection.

1. States that previously were leaning Obama have now moved to solid Obama (PA, MI, NJ, NM, OR).
   
2. Two states previously listed as tossup have now moved to lean Obama (VA, FL).
   
3. Two states that were previously leaning McCain are now tossup (MO, NV).

It's safe to say that this is Barack Obama's high water mark for the year so far. For eleven weeks Obama's electoral advantage has remained flat, primarily because of Florida and Ohio. Those two nuts haven't been easy for Obama to crack. The recent crash on Wall Street, Palin's wobbly interview, Obama's debate win, and McCain's gimmickery all have dragged the Republican ticket down. John McCain, just from last week alone, has lost 43 electoral votes. 

Questions to consider between now and next week:

1. Is Barack Obama's lead sustainable? 

Much has been made of the buyer's remorse theory this year. While voter's may have been weary of Barack Obama months ago, they don't appear to be now. Charges that he may be inexperienced or an amateur have been undermined by McCain's real amateur running mate. Obama's first debate performance also reassured independent voters of his ability to handle foreign affairs.  It appears that for the first time many voters are becoming comfortable with the idea of a President Obama.

2. Will the slow motion collapse of John McCain's campaign accelerate, slow down, or stop? 

The electoral ceiling for Barack Obama is somewhere between 50 and 60 votes higher than our current projection estimate. The last three weeks have been a complete disaster for John McCain. Obama's numbers will continue to climb as long as the economy keeps losing jobs and McCain keeps shooting from the hip. Palin's satisfactory debate performance is likely to make news for one or two days, but it will be irrelevant in less than a week (veep debate analysis). For John McCain to have any chance at a significant comeback, Barack Obama will have to stumble.

3. Would Tina Fey really make a good Vice President? I don't know about you, but it's hard for me to distinguish the difference between the SNL version of Sarah Palin and the real Sarah Palin. Here's a video with a side-by-side comparison. See what I mean?

As so many have said already, a week is a lifetime in politics. But aside from some unforseen disaster, Barack Obama is likely to be elected as the 44th President of the United States. Thousands of people in Ohio and Virginia have already made their choice by voting early, and with each passing day, thousands more will do the same. One third of the electorate will vote by November 4th. 

The probability of McCain using another gimmick is about 90%. The chances of it working are close to zero. And if his strategy once again becomes attacking Obama, he runs the risk of digging the hole even deeper than it is now. If John McCain wins this election, it won't have anything to do with a new McCain campaign strategy/gimmick. Barack Obama holds the keys to victory for both himself and John McCain.