Wednesday, October 1, 2008

CNN/Time Battleground Polls: Obama Pulling Away

CNN/Time's Wednesday set of battleground polls was just released (and other than Minnesota they all were carried twice by President Bush) and they are all very good news for Barack Obama.

Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47%.
Minnesota: Obama 54%, McCain 43%.
Missouri: Obama 49%, McCain 48%.
Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 47%.
Virginia: Obama 53%, McCain 44%.

Florida is really an amazing result. Due to both the oddity of the primaries (Obama didn't campaign in the state and Florida is the state that essentially locked up the nomination for McCain) and the state's demographics, the Sunshine State was long considered a lean McCain state. Missouri is much in the same boat and McCain has consistently lead by 4-6 points there, but now Obama has taken a lead within the margin.

Minnesota has long been a blue state, but one that up until 2006 was trending pink. For that reason the Republicans held their convention there last month. Obama led there by a solid margin all summer, but after the GOP convention the state closed to a tie. It's very encouraging to see it go back to a solid Obama state.

Virginia and Nevada, while completely different states, have been very similar this year as both have continually been tight, toss-up states. Seeing Obama open up solid leads, particularly in Virginia, verifies the national data we've been seeing with Obama with a 4-7% national lead.

Remember that if Obama holds onto the Kerry states and the Iowa/New Mexico combo, which seems increasingly likely, he likely only has to take any of the following to win the election: Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, Ohio, or Florida. So volunteer in your nearest swing state today!

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