Tuesday, September 30, 2008

The Moose Vote: Obama, not Mama

Many of us hardcore political junkies spend a lot time every election cycle pouring over hundreds of polls, trolling for every bit of information we can find. There is typically a lot of focus on various groups of voters, identified by gender, race, age, geography, education level, income bracket, etc. This so-called identity politics has also become a staple of the chattering classes on cable TV and in the print media.

It's become the fashion to give these voting blocs catchy little labels so we don't have to go through long descriptions (or - God forbid! - offer proof of their existence) to make our point. Think of CNN's John King, who can hardly get through a recap of the latest poll without at least one reference to "lunch-bucket Democrats". Then there is MSNBC's Chris Matthews, waxing poetic over the "white, blue-collar, Catholic, working class voters" of Pennsylvania.  And, of course, there are the universally invoked "Reagan Democrats". You know the drill.

Thanks to the selection of Sarah Palin as the Republican VP candidate, we at ElectBlue have identified a group of voters who have been all but ignored by the mainstream media. So, we're going to correct that oversight here and now. These are what we call moose voters

Moose voters live in states with naturally-occurring populations of wild moose. In spite of wide differences in location, education, income, race, gender, etc., these voters have a lot in common. They share a a fondness for cold weather, own lots of heavy winter clothing, love riding around in snow mobiles and are addicted to ice fishing. They typically prefer Molson to Budweiser, drive American cars and have a very independent political streak.

There are thirteen states in what we like to call the moose belt: ME, NH, VT, NY, MI, WIMNCOMT, IDWA, OR and, of course, AK. So how is the presidential race shaking out with moose voters this election? In a word, it's not even close - even though the results may be a bit surprising to many.

Barack Obama and running mate Joe Biden have a commanding lead over John McCain and Sarah ("Moose Huntin' Mama") Palin. Of the thirteen states in the moose belt, Obama-Biden currently lead in ten: ME, NH, VT, NY, MI, WI, MNCOWA and OR. Only three states - MT, ID and AK - look safe for the McCain-Palin ticket. In the race for moose state electoral votes, Obama-Biden are crushing McCain-Palin, 107 to 10.

Of course, things can and do change in an election campaign. We at ElectBlue are committed to follow developments in the moose belt. We will bring you updates as warranted.

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