Electoral Update - Making History In The Last Frontier

The fallout from the Ted Stevens scandal may be far greater than the loss of one senate seat.  A new Hays Research poll in Alaska now shows Democrat Barack Obama leading there by five points.

It's been a very long time since Alaska was considered a swing state. In fact, Alaska has only once, ever, gone Democratic since becoming a state in 1959.  Could Barack Obama become the first Democrat to win Alaska since Lyndon Johnson?

Even before the Stevens brouhaha, McCain was on thin ice.  Most polls throughout the summer showed the Arizona Senator with only a five or six point lead. Comparing those numbers to the 30 point victories for George Bush in 2000 and 2004 gives Alaskan Democrats plenty of reason to believe their state may finally turn blue.  

ALASKA RESULTS  (source:  Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections)

2000	Bush 58.6%	Gore 27.7%	Bush + 30.9%
2004	Bush 61.1%	Kerry 32.5%	Bush + 28.6%

We should also point out that Mark Begich has also made tremendous gains since Stevens, his opponent, was formally charged with seven felony counts of failing to disclose gifts received from an oil contractor.  The last time a Democrat captured a US Senate seat in Alaska was 1974.  Could Democrats be on the verge of making history in The Last Frontier?  More on that in next Thursday's Balance of Power Projection.

Besides Alaska, the race essentially remains unchanged. The slight electoral changes over the last two weeks represent subtle nuances in the methodology we use to assign a state. As our writer LibraryPolitico said just days ago, the race remains static.

A Rasmussen poll yesterday shows McCain leading by a single point in Colorado, well within the margin of error (5%).  This is the second poll in the last three weeks showing McCain with a small lead.  Obama and McCain have split the last four polls, which is why we've moved this state from leaning Obama to tossup.  My guess is that Colorado, along with Virginia and Ohio, will remain very close all the way to election day.

Bayhwatch: Veepstakes Vigil on the Beaches of Hawaii

There are numerous reports (or are they just speculations?) in the blogosphere today that Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) will make his way to Hawaii this week to meet with the vacationing Barack Obama. The only rational purpose for such a rendezvous is, of course, that Mr. Obama has decided to choose the Hoosier Democrat as his running-mate. 

I am not sure if Bayh is en route to Hawaii or not. Heck, he could already be there for all I know. Remember how skillful the Obama campaign was at outwitting the press corps on the night of Obama's first meeting with Senator Clinton after he had wrapped up the Democratic nomination? The embedded press was whisked away to Chicago as Washington-based reporters were put on the false trail of staking out Senator Clinton's DC home. Meanwhile, Obama and Clinton were having a quiet, very private, tete-a-tete at California Senator Diane Feinstein's Washington home.

ElectBlue has learned from well-placed sources in the Obama campaign that this is decision week on the Vice-Presidential running mate. While in Hawaii this week, Obama will decide who his VP will be. The unanswered question is, when will the Illinois Senator make the announcement? I'm betting sooner rather than later. Will it, in fact, be Evan Bayh? His odds have gone up, in my view, in recent weeks. 

For those who've read my previous blogs about the VP options for Obama, I am checking out some old recipe books for the best ways to prepare crow. I'm thinking maybe deep-fried...

Hope For Hagan

Survey USA, just one month ago, conducted a poll in North Carolina but failed to include Libertarian, Christopher Cole as a candidate.  A new poll conducted 8/9 - 8/11 now shows why Dole should perhaps take Cole seriously.  Dole had her work cut out already even without Cole in the mix. Now, she'll have to worry about a third party leech on her campaign who's all but certain to suck precious votes away.

Dole 46% Hagan 41% Cole 7%

It's not hard to imagine Hagan leading in this race as long as she can capture the hearts and minds of blue/purple voters. Hagan needs to seal the deal with those in her own party first.  Only 68% of Democrats are supporting her. There's plenty of room to improve with Independents too, as they favor her by a mere one to three margin. Internals also show Hagan trailing Dole with 18-34 year olds by 15%, a demographic most Democrats count on. Hagan can pull ahead by closing the margins within these groups.  

Hagan, all by herself, is a force to be reckoned with.  Besides her new ad targeting Independents, she's also supported by groups like Majority Action who's released an ad of their own exposing Liddy's bad habit of siding with Big Oil and how she's accepted millions of oil dollars for her campaign.

Independents

Dole 42%   Hagan 33%   Cole 21%   Undecided 4%

We can be sure the deep pockets of Big Oil will continue their staunch support for Liddy Dole. Please help Kay Hagan close the gap and defeat Dole by making a $25.00 contribution today. 

The Race Is Static

Despite all of talk about how Obama's trip abroad or John McCain's non-sensical "celebrity" ads were either expanding or contracting Obama's advantage, all data on a national level suggests that the race has remained static the past few weeks with Senator Obama continuing a lead in the mid-to-high single digits.

Last week three non-tracking national polls were released by Time, AP-Ipsos, and CBS...and what did they show? Well if you were listening to the media (those people who are supposed very pro-Obama, if you listen to Senator Dole..err McCain), you'd think Obama was in some sort of free fall. But that's simply not the case as these polls showed leads of five, six, and six points respectively. Of course, that's the same basic range of five to eight points that the junior Senator from Illinois has enjoyed in most polls in the past two or three months. That consistent advantage is one that neither George Bush or John Kerry ever enjoyed in 2004 for any real length of time, and should not be discounted. With few outlying exceptions, Obama has polled in the 46-49% range, while Senator McCain has lingered in the 39-43% range in most polls since the Spring.

While neither Obama's trip nor McCain's ads seem to have made a lasting impression in the polls, we must wait to see if they've sowed seeds of doubt (or reassurance) among independents and undecideds come the Fall. But for now, the race is essentially in a state of static. As Dan Balz wrote in the Washington Post this weekend:

Amid a profusion of polls and a war of words and television commercials, the underlying dynamics of the election appear little changed in the two months since the primaries ended. Democrat Obama still faces reservations among voters about his background and readiness. Republican McCain still faces questions about whether he has a governing vision that represents a clear break from the policies of President Bush.

Note: Yes, I am aware of Bill's wonderful Electoral Projection that has Florida moving from undecided to Lean McCain, but I find that not too surprising and most, if not all, observers have considered to be slight-lean McCain for a long while; though I certainly think the race in the Sunshine State is very tight especially considering McCain got a head start there. I would advise everyone not to get too excited or agitated with a poll that shows either candidate moving their numbers a slight bit in either direction.

Electoral Update - Obama Holds On, McCain Gains

Barack Obama gained one state last week (New Mexico) to put him over the 270 threshold.  This week, it's John McCain who's gaining. For the first time this year, John McCain has vaulted over the 200 mark.  Florida is now in the McCain column after remaining in tossup status for several weeks.  The last three consecutive polls show McCain leading, and it's the first poll to show either candidate with 50% since May.

FLORIDA POLLING

8/3/2008	Survey USA (689 L)	Obama 44%	McCain 50%	McCain +6
8/2/2008	PPP-D (807 L)	Obama 44%	McCain 47%	McCain +3
7/31/2008	Other (1600 R)	Obama 40%	McCain 45%	McCain +5

It's not yet clear whether or not McCain's negative attacks will have any sticking power to them. National numbers show little movement for either candidate, but polling in at least one key state indicates a possible shift for the GOP. June and July numbers in Wisconsin gave Obama double digit leads in nearly every poll. August polling shows McCain reducing that lead to single digits.  

We're anxiously awaiting new polls from Colorado, Virginia and Missouri. While other projections have Colorado in the tossup column, we're projecting Obama to be leading for the moment. Seven of the last eight polls show Obama leading.  

In probably the closest race in the nation, Virginia remains in the tossup column.  Of the last five polls, neither candidate has led by more than 2 points, well within the margin of error.  As for Missouri, McCain appears to be digging his heels in.  He's led by five or six in the last two polls, just on the verge of turning red.

From an electoral perspective, McCain is gaining while Obama is just holding on.  As Stephen Moody noted a few days ago, Barack Obama has to change the dialogue of this campaign.  He can't afford to waste time responding to petty attacks which compare him to Paris Hilton. Instead, he must guide the discussion, convincing Americans that John McCain is really nothing more than George Bush in disguise.  

US Senate Projection - Democrats Expected To Gain Big

CLICK HERE FOR THE AUGUST 26TH US SENATE PROJECTION.  

A few weeks ago, we brought to you an analysis of a few key US Senate races. Today, we're introducing our first Balance of Power Projection for the 111th Senate. Between now and November 4th, we'll keep you informed of all the US Senate races and regularly update our projections based on our analysis of recent poll data.

There are 35 Senators up for reelection this year, and 23 of them are Republicans. Democrats are heavily favored to gain a minimum of four seats, and a few other close races could deliver one or two more.

The current balance of power in the 110th Senate stands at 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and 2 Independents. Democrats control congress because Sanders (I-VT) and Lieberman (I/D-CT) both caucus with Democrats. Assuming that Lieberman gets the boot in a few weeks, Democrats are sitting on 50 seats (including Sanders) going into November.

Our current projection has Democrats controlling the next Senate session with 55 seats (+5).  Republicans are projected to hold 42 seats, and three races remain in the tossup column.  Democrats have a lot of work to do if they expect to reach a filibuster proof majority (60 seats).  

AR - Pryor	AK- Begich +1	MN - Franken/Coleman	ID - Jim Risch	AL - Sessions
DE - Biden	CO- Udall +1	MS* - Musgrove/Wicker	KY - McConnell	GA - Chambliss
IA - Harkin	LA- Landrieu	OR - Merkley/Smith	ME - Collins	KS - Roberts
IL - Durbin			NC - Dole	MS* - Cochran
MA - Kerry			TN - Alexander	NE - Johanns
MI - Levin				OK - Inhoffe
MT - Baucus				SC - Graham
NH - Shaheen +1				TX - Cornyn
NJ - Lautenburg				WY* - Enzi
NM - Udall +1				WY* - Barrasso
RI - Reed
SD - Johnson
VA - Warner +1
WV - Rockefeller

* state has more than one US Senate Race in 2008

Close Observations - Merkley & Hagan

Rasmussen Reports, just two weeks ago, showed Gordon Smith and Jeff Merkley tied in Oregon. Now, Survey USA shows Republican, Gordon Smith, leading by 12. Of the last four polls, two have been within the margin of error and two have indicated a nine to twelve point lead. Too much inconsistency in the polls keeps this race in the tossup column. Suppert Jeff Merkley today in this close race.

We're rooting for Kay Hagan in North Carolina. After "Liddy" Dole's disgusting attempt to add Jesse Helms' name to an HIV/AIDS relief bill...that's right, Jesse Helms, the deceased NC Senator who frequently opposed AIDS research and attributed the cause of HIV to "deliberate, unnatural acts"..., we hope Hagan crushes Dole like a bug. 

Speaking of Senators who are getting crushed, here's a video of Ted Stevens getting a friendly smooch from Ms. Liddy.  

Although Hagan is giving Dole the fight of a lifetime, she'll need all the help she can get to take down almighty Dole. Six polls from July show Dole with a lead somewhere around 10%.  But if you're a Republican incumbent in North Carolina, you're expected to be leading by 20.  The word on the street is that Dole is skipping the convention.  Dole's sweatin' now.   Help Kay Hagan keep the heat on Elizabeth Dole.

On Friday:  An updated Electoral Projection.  Gains for John McCain?

The Here and Now of Oil

Drill here, drill now! Drill here, drill now! Kinda catchy, huh? Well, maybe... if you don't think about it too much. After a little reflection, however, you start to worry. What exactly does John McCain mean by 'here' and 'now'? 

Is 'here' down the street, or right off the beach from my timeshare in Destin? Just precisely where is 'here'? And is 'now' like right now, today, this instant? Are drilling rigs and a bunch of roughnecks gonna turn up in my neighborhood at any moment?

Not to worry. Here's an idea that should ease everyone's mind and make the McCain energy plan a no-brainer. (Ok, I know some of you already thought the plan was a no-brain-er, but bear with me.) Why not drill where we know there will be no opposition from the locals? You know, some places where the big oil companies are already bought in, so to speak. Fully a dozen prime drilling sites come to mind immediately:

-- McCain's nine (nine!) homes;

-- George W. Bush's ranch in Crawford, TX

-- The Bush Compound, Kennebunkport, ME

-- The Dick Cheney family spread in Wyoming

It gets better. At least two of these locations offer the additional possibility of off-shore drilling (McCain's Laguna Beach, CA, house and the Bush family Kennebunkport estate). So there we are: a good fourteen drilling options... and we're just getting started. 

As to the meaning of now... I'll just take the old-fashioned, dictionary definition, 'at this moment'. That sounds pretty soon to me. No need to wait for new legislation or environmental studies or such. Just have at it and ...drill here, drill now! 

In case you needed one more reason...

For those few remaining voters in Alaska who haven't quite made up their minds about the upcoming US Senate race, here's a tidbit for you.  

On his way to the opening ceremonies of the Olympic Games in Beijing, George W. Bush made a brief stop over at Eielson Air Force base near Fairbanks. While there, he addressed a group of military personnel assigned to the base. In his short remarks, Mr. Bush found time to heap praise on incumbent Republican Senator Ted Stevens: "The United States military has had... no better friend and supporter than Ted Stevens", he effused. 

Mr. Stevens, who was in attendance at the event, must have been as surprised as everyone at such kudos from W. under the circumstances.  After all, the six-term Senator was indicted just last week on seven felony counts of making false statements about his finances. When questioned about Mr. Bush's comments, the White House issued a statement saying the remarks were "perfectly appropriate". 

Well alrighty then...  I guess if your approval ratings are as low as Bush's and Stevens', any company is good company.

The Democratic candidate for Mr. Stevens' seat, Mayor Mark Begich of Anchorage, must be delighted with his on-going good fortune.

Veep Speculation At Fever Pitch (again)

Speculation about who will be Obama's choice for VP is reaching a a new level of frenzy again, fueled by his campaign schedule over the next two days.

It seems that Senator Obama will be campaigning with Evan Bayh (D-IN) tomorrow in Elkhart, IN.  The press have been told that the Obama entourage will remain in Indiana until Wednesday evening, although there are no official campaign events (yet) scheduled for Wednesday. Naturally, this has led to much musing on various blogs (and among the chattering classes on cable TV) that Obama will announce Bayh as his Vice-Presidential choice tomorrow in Bayh's home state. We shall see.

I've noted here several times that I think Bayh is an unlikely choice since the Senate Democrats would lose a seat if the Obama-Bayh ticket wins.  (Indiana's Governor Daniels is a Republican who would surely appoint a fellow Republican to fill Bayh's seat.)

Just in case, I like my crow with salt and pepper. 

Reagan, Carville and KISS

I think it likely that the 2008 presidential contest will hinge on the ability of one side or the other to reduce the campaign to one simple, clear message. This was the case in two other recent change elections where the underlying dynamics favored the challenger, but the incumbent candidate (or party) attempted to raise voters' doubts about the risks of voting for change. 

Consider Reagan versus Carter in 1980 and Clinton versus Bush the Elder in 1992. The political environment of those races favored the change candidates, but it was only when the challengers reduced the choice to the simplest of terms that they were able to close the deal with the electorate . Voters wanted change but were hesitant to cast their lot with the relatively riskier challenger until the contest was reduced to a single overarching theme. Reagan and Clinton took the White House by exploiting their opponents' most obvious and simplest weaknesses. 

Reagan made it look easy when he asked: are you better off now than you were four years ago? Day after day, speech after speech, ad after ad, Reagan pounded away at Carter with that simple question. Once voters accepted the notion of  a President Reagan, that simple, focused question almost guaranteed his election. In a similar way, Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign manager, James Carville, latched on to Bush the Elder's greatest weakness with a pit bull-like determination. He kept the Clinton campaign focused like a laser on a very simple theme:  It's the economy, stupid! 

Such is now the situation, I think, for Barack Obama. The Illinois Senator has established his presidential bona fides, both on foreign affairs and domestic issues. In order to win this election he must now Keep It Simple, Stupid (KISS).  How to do that? In my view the answer is very straightforward: the Obama campaign must tie John McCain, hand and foot, to the failed presidency of George W. Bush.

On jobs, health care, gas prices, energy policy, Iraq, Afghanistan, Europe, China, trade policy, education and every other issue, the message must be clear and relentless: John McCain = George W. Bush.  A vote for John McCain is a vote for four more years of the same. TV ads must have McCain morphing into Bush and then morphing back again.  Day after day, week after week, with no distractions allowed, Obama must run against Senator McSame.

If Obama allows McCain and the Republicans to make this election about anything else, he runs the very grave risk of losing. It cannot be about race, or about Obama himself, or even about John McCain.  The Obama campaign cannot, or course, allow outrageous attacks to go unchallenged, but it must - at all costs - avoid being drawn off its central, simple message of change from the disastrous policies of Bush/McCain.

So, Senator Obama, let's hear it, all day, every day, from now until November: a vote for John McCain is a vote for more of the same. It is a vote for four more years of Bush failure and incompetence.  America cannot afford that; it is the riskiest course of all.

Alaska-Senate: Stevens Sinks

As we noted last week, Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska was indicted on federal charges, particularly bad news for the Senator since he was already locked into a tough, uphill race against the popular Democratic mayor of Anchorage (which is Alaska's biggest city and represents 40% of Alaska's population), Mark Begich. Now new polling, taken after news of the indictments broke, shows the impact and it's all good news for Begich.

Rasmussen, which had it being a 50-41% advantage for Begich just prior to the indictments, has released a new poll having Begich's lead increasing to a 50-37% margin; but another poll has the margin expanding even more.

Beltway (and subscription only) newspaper Roll Call has a poll from the Ivan Moore Research Group having Begich's lead expanding from a 51-43% lead to a 56-35% lead since the last poll they conducted. Perhaps just as importantly, they have Senator Stevens holding a 59-19% lead (admittedly with a sample of only 219 Republican primary voters, which is a very small sample) over his nearest competitor in the August 26th Republican primary, so it appears Begich and Chuck Schumer are getting the best of both worlds: an indicted incumbent, but a party still willing to nominate them. Were Stevens to step aside the Alaska GOP would have until mid-September to choose a replacement on the November ballot but Stevens has a reputation for being ornery, so that is unlikely.

The Rasmussen poll as well as the Ivan Moore Research poll also continue having Obama within a five point margin of McCain in a state that John Kerry lost by 25 points. This news will only increase the confidence of Obama's team that they can pry Alaska from the Republican column.

Electoral Projection: Obama leads for now, but McCain's fiery pit could bring him down

With just 92 days left until November 4th, there's been little change to the electoral map.  From last week's projection, only one state has changed.   New Mexico has now moved from "tossup" to leaning for Barack Obama.

Last week, we projected McCain to be trailing Obama, 268-175, just shy of the 270 electoral votes needed to win.  Based on the latest polling information available to us, we are now projecting Barack Obama to be over the top, leading John McCain, 273-175 (90 tossups).

In New Mexico, McCain has led in only one poll since February, and Obama has led in the last four of five (see below).  Rasmussen, in the latest New Mexico poll, puts Obama up by six, and Obama leads McCain with "unaffiliated" voters by 5%.

As we mentioned in our last EP, nothing should be taken for granted.  John Kerry led in virtually every poll in July and early August.

Where's the beef?

Although Obama's electoral outlook is in good shape today, it appears national numbers are moving in John McCain's direction.  Whether or not these numbers hold remains yet to be seen. McCain's attack ads have made the difference, and Obama's strategy to remain totally silent doesn't appear to be working.

Picking up where Clinton left off, the McCain strategy is clear:  Lure Obama into the fiery pit of negative politics.  In his effort to remain above the fray, Obama has allowed McCain to chip away at the lead.  While Obama can't fall into the trap of going negative himself as a response, he also can't afford to be reluctant to throw a punch when he needs to.

Obama must also remember how he got here in the first place. Voters believed him, more than Clinton, to be a truer agent of change. So far, he's been the representative of new politics, and he absolutely must keep reminding us of the consequences of old-school, Bush politics. Those reminders (high gas prices, faltering economy, ballooning deficit, broken borer, etc.) just happen to be red blue meat for a lot of Americans.  Who's hungry?

The political bullseye for Obama is convincing Americans that Bush and McCain are one in the same.  He can hit his mark by hammering away with this message.  This election is Barack Obama's to lose, but he'll have to break the silence and become a better fighter if he wants to sustain his lead through November.

NEW MEXICO POLLING DATA

Rasmussen (7/24)	Obama 49%	McCain 43%	Obama +6%
Survey USA(6/19)	Obama 49%	McCain 46%	Obama +3%
Rasmussen(6/19)	Obama 47%	McCain 39%	Obama +8%
Survey USA (5/18)	Obama 44%	McCain 44%	Tie
Rasmussen (5/14)	Obama 50%	McCain 41%	Obama +9%

Source:  Dave Leip's Atlas of Presidential Elections

TN US Senate Candidate Mike Padgett's Blog

We are very pleased to post the following blog, sent exclusively to ElectBlue, by Mike Padgett, Democratic primary candidate for the US Senate from Tennessee. The seat is currently held Republican Lamar Alexander. Mr. Padgett writes:

"ElectBlue is right: Republicans are kidding themselves if they think Senator
Alexander’s seat is safe. Not as long as I am in the race.

You see, I bring a couple of key advantages to the table.

For one, I, unlike my Democratic opponents, was elected 7 times in overwhelmingly Republican Knox County. Couldn’t have done it without Republican votes. And I was a big factor in delivering Knox County for Governor Phil Bredesen both times he was elected – a Tennessee first.

So, I know how to win Democratic and Republican votes in East Tennessee, something no other Democrat in this race can offer. And it would be tough to defeat Senator Alexander without it.

Secondly, I am the only candidate in the Democratic Primary who has experience as a public servant. As Knox County clerk for two decades, I have a record as an innovative problem-solver, a public servant who listened to the practical problems of working-class citizens and provided real-time solutions.

Tennesseans have forgotten what it is like to have a U.S. senator who will fight for them and find answers for their problems. They can expect that from me. I have a track record to show for it.

I have already been to all 95 Tennessee counties, talking to farmers in the field, single moms standing at the gas pump, country lawyers and small-town bankers on the town squares. And none of them can recall a single thing Senator Alexander has done to help them or their families.

I plan on returning to every county in the general election campaign and letting
Tennesseans know that THEY come first with me – not the oil industry and the
wealthiest Americans, whose tax breaks Senator Alexander has jealously
guarded.

You know, Tennesseans aren’t stupid. They recognize that this election year is the first time in 6 years that Senator Alexander has talked about the energy crisis. They haven’t forgotten how he voted repeatedly to keep the minimum wage obscenely low. And they are well aware that he has supported President Bush at every turn in his disastrous presidency.

Senator Alexander a safe Republican seat? Don’t bet the farm on it."

- Mike Padgett

Democratic Candidate for US Senate

www.votepadgett.com

You Get What You Pay For. Well, maybe not always...

Poor CNN. They spent all that money on a new poll conducted on their behalf by Opinion Research Corp and then they couldn't bring themselves to use it. Although the poll results were released yesterday afternoon around 3pm ET, Campbell Brown's prime time program at 8pm ET never mentioned it. Instead, Ms. Brown briefly cited CNN's so-called 'poll of polls' (some sort of average of selected polls, but they never tell us which ones).

Why would CNN not use its own poll?

Could it be that the reason CNN chose not to use its own poll was because that poll's results don't fit CNN's predetermined narrative about this election? After all, the CNN/Opinion Research poll showed Obama with a 7 point lead over McCain (51% to 44%), a lead outside the margin of error. CNN's concocted 'poll of polls' gave Obama a five point lead (48% to 43%). That is barely inside the margin of error, allowing the CNN chattering classes to portray the race as a tie.

I guess if you are doggedly determined to present the 2008 presidential contest as a horse race that is 'virtually tied' even the respected polls you pay for can be tossed in the trash if they don't support the narrative. Facts cannot be allowed to get in the way of the network story line.

So much for the 'best political team on television'.

New Polls: Obama Leading in FL, OH, PA

Those of us who follow polls on a daily basis are just now recovering from emotional shock after Monday's disastrous Gallup flop.  To help expedite our recovery, Quinnipiac has just released a group of new polls for a few key states.

Florida:  

Obama 46  McCain 44

Ohio:  

Obama 46 McCain 44

Pennsylvania:  

Obama 49  McCain 42

It's difficult to put stock into these numbers however.  Quinnipiac is calling McCain's latest numbers a surge despite Florida and Ohio netting him just 2% over last month.

"'The $64,000 question is whether Sen. John McCain's surge is a result of Sen. Obama's much-publicized Middle Eastern and European trip, or just a coincidence that it occurred while Sen. Obama was abroad,' said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute." 

"'While Obama was on tour, trying to show voters he could handle world affairs, voters were home trying to fill their gas tanks,' Brown added."

Obama was just three days into his foreign tour when Quinnipiac began polling (July 23).  The miniature gains by McCain in this latest round of polling are unlikely the result of a "surge" of sudden support.  Put your checkbook down Mr. Brown, I'll take the $64K in cash. 

CNN's Political Ticker producer, Alexander Mooney, couldn't resist the urge to present this story as some spectacular theatre.

"But in what could be a warning sign for Obama as voters begin to turn their attention to the general election race, Obama's lead appears to have dwindled, or barely remained steady, in all three states..."

Warning sign?  Nothing has changed.  Florida and Ohio have been close all summer.  There was virtually no lead for McCain to narrow in the first place.  As for Pennsylvania, a Strategic Vision (Republican) poll released just yesterday shows Obama leading by nine.  Mr. Mooney apparently didn't get the memo.

Last week, Quinnipiac also showed a 15% swing for John McCain in Minnesota, narrowing Obama's lead to just 2% in less than a month.  Quinnipiac's Minnesota number is so far distant from other polling groups (including their own data from the month before) that it's almost certain to be a statistical outlier.  See also Colorado.

There's no shortage of reporters who desperately want a horse race, and you'll be hard pressed to find a surge in anything these days unless you're looking for a growing number of miscalculated blunders by professional pollsters. 

Tomorrow:  Friday's Electoral Projection.