2008 Senate Race Projection

*Updated and current Senate projections can be found by navigating through the Elect Blue Index (left-top margin).  Senate projections will be updated weekly starting August 26th.

As of today, 7/23/08, here's my outlook on this year's senate races.

Democrats are projected to have at least a 55 seat majority in the senate after November's election. If you've been watching closely, 55 is the rock-bottom number Democrats are likely to have. Their goal: A filibuster proof majority, which is 60. They're unlikely to get to 60, but they could come close, and here's why.

Republicans have 23 seats up for grabs this year. Democrats only have 12. Of the twelve Democrat seats, only one is in play, and that's Landrieu's seat in LA. Unfortunately for her, thousands of Katrina victims (who would have voted for her) have relocated somewhere other than LA. She's led in every recent poll, but her opponent, John Kennedy, is on her heels. She's only been leading by four or five in most polls, and that's why this race is on everyone's watchlist.

Ugly Outlook For GOP

COLORADO 

A few have bucked my prediction that CO will go blue in 2008. Make no doubt about it, the DNC will pour a lot of Benjamins into this one. Republican, Wayne Allard, is pulling a Bill Frist by only running two terms. He's finished. Enter Democrat, Mark Udall. He's been running around 10 points ahead of his Republican challenger, Bob Schaffer. Democrats in CO elected a new Democratic governor in 2006 by 15%, and they also control the state house and senate. Bush won CO by 6%. This seat will turn blue in November.

NEW HAMPSHIRE 

What more is there to say except this is the end for John Sununu (R). His opponent,  Jeanne Shaheen has been crushing him by more than 10 points in the latest polls. The last Rasmussen poll has Shaheen leading by 14. Democrats have been picking off Republicans one by one over the last few years here too. Democrats, in 2006, won back both House seats, and for the first time since the 1870's, New Hampshire Democrats control both chambers of the state government. Adding on, Democrats reelected their Governor in 2006 by an enormous margin. NH went to Bush in 2000 and to Kerry in 2004. Democrats will pick up this seat too.

NEW MEXICO 

This is the blowout of all blowouts. Democratic Congressman, Tom Udall, is riding the wave over Republican, Steve Pearce. Unfortunately for Republicans, Pete Domenici has decided to not run for a seventh term (see also CO).   Polls have Udall leading anywhere from 20-25 points. This race has a lot of interesting twists and turns when you dig into which candidates put their hats in for this seat. Three Republicans, all of which held US House seats, gave up their posts to run in this race. Now, all those seats are open too. Gore won NM in 2000 but Bush beat Kerry here by just 365 votes.  Tom Udall is the cousin of CO's Mark Udall.

VIRGINIA 

If you're looking for things to get prettier for the GOP, better hit the back button while you can. Shut down the computer if you need to. Here in VA, we have governor vs. governor. Former Republican Governor, Jim Gilmore, is getting crushed by former Governor Mark Warner. Rasmussen's latest poll puts Warner ahead by 23, and every poll since September has him cruising anywhere from 25 to 30 points ahead. Why you ask? Same story as before. Changing demographics have led to a red state turning blue. In 2006, Republican incumbent, George Allen, was thumped by Democrat Jim Webb. And in 2005, Tim Kaine rode the coattails of a popular Warner into the Governor's mansion. The presidential race will be a barn burner for sure. It will be the closest percentage race in the nation in my opinion. The senate race on the other hand is a snoozer.

These are the races that should get Democrats to 55. I'm counting Sanders (I-VT) and Lieberman (I-CT) for Democrats because they almost always vote with Democrats procedurally (minus Lieberman on Iraq and Iran).  Starting with the closest races, here are the remaining tossup Senate seats.

Nightmare Scenario For GOP If These Seats Are Lost

It's 55 plus one for each of these races Democrats can manage to win.

ALASKA 

If you've heard of the Bridge to nowhere, you may know who Ted Stevens is. Polls over the last three months have been dead even between Stevens and his Democrat challenger, Mark Begich, but a Rasmussen poll released yesterday puts Begich up by 8. As important as the margin, it's the first poll in which either candidate has reached the 50% threshold with Begich polling at 52%. It's hard to imagine how Stevens is even in the game given his past. One year ago, the FBi raided his home and began an investigation into his dealings with a former oil contractor who was later convicted of bribery. Smells..or rather sounds like the Tennessee Waltz, right? Stevens would be 91 years old at the end of another term if reelected and has never received less than 66% of the vote. It's a "bridge" too far for Stevens to get even 55% this time. This one appears to be too close to call unless more polling data reveals Begich opening his lead.

MISSISSIPPI 

MS makes my head hurt because there are actually two senate races going on at the same time. Only one however is close. When Trent Lott resigned, Republican Governor Barbour appointed Roger Wicker to replace him. Previously, Wicker had been a Congressman for 13 years in MS-01. After his departure, the seat was taken over in a special election by Democrat Travis Childers. Things only get worse if Republicans lose Lott's seat. Wicker's challenger, Ronnie Musgrove is on Wicker's heels too. The last two polls are virtually tied (Musgrove +1 in June, Wicker +1 in July), and with the election still a hundred days away, both are slingin' Mississippi mud as if it were November 1st. It's bound to get nasty in the swamps. This race will be as close as any senate race this year. A barn-burner to be sure.

OREGON

Like Alaska, things were lookin' relatively safe for Republican, Gordon Smith until Democrat challenger, Jeff Merkley found himself leading by 2% in a Rasmussen poll released last Wednesday. June's poll had Smith winning by 9%. Smith's approach to winning reelection is an odd one to say the least. He's siding with Barack Obama. If you can't beat 'em, join, 'em, right? Actually, Obama isn't supporting Smith at all. In the coming weeks we should have a better grasp on where things are headed. Too close to call.

MINNESOTA

It's hard for me to take Al Franken serious. A lot of Minnesotans feel different though. Whether or not there are enough voters to support Franken remains to be seen however. There have been four polls since May, and three of four have incumbent Norm Coleman leading. The only Rasmussen poll shows Franken leading by 2%; however, it may be an outlier. The other three polls average to show Coleman leading by double digits. Survey USA's poll, released only a few days after Rasmussen's, shows Coleman up by 9%.  I'd be surprised if Franken pulls it off, but if there was ever a year to do it, it's 2008.

MAINE

Susan Collins is a middle of the road Republican who is popular in Maine. She's unlikely to be thrown to the wolves by Mainers, but her challenger, Tom Allen, is expected to keep things just close enough to make Collins get off her butt, raise money, and campaign. Collins promised to serve only two terms. Fortunately for Republicans, she's going back on that promise. I have strong doubts about Allen's chances, and I'm not even sure why this race is on anyone's watch list (although you'll find it on many).  He's not led in one poll, and Collins' average lead is somewhere around 12-15%.

NORTH CAROLINA

A few months ago, Democrat challenger, Kay Hagan, was turning heads. Numbers for Liddy Dole weren't looking so good. But things have changed since Dole began dumping money into the race. She also rearranged her staff back in May. Since then, the race has been favoring Dole so much that I doubt Hagen's chances. Regardless, I read somewhere the other day that Schumer has set aside $6 million for Hagen. She'll need it. This seat has been owned by Republicans for 35 years. Four published polls between June and July have Dole leading somewhere around 10% to 12%. An internal poll released by Hagan has Dole leading by just 4. Some believe Dole to be a complete ditz and others claim she's a terrible campaigner; nonetheless, I'm sticking with Dole for now on this one.

As for us here in Tennessee, Alexander is up for reelection, but the race hasn't been on anyone's radar. One reason is we haven't had our primary yet. Another is because Alexander is an incumbent in a very, very red state. Alexander will take on either Bob Tuke, former Tennessee DNC Chair, or the more moderate Knox County resident and businessman, Mike Padgett. I've never met Mike, but he told me in an email yesterday that he believes he has a better shot at taking down Alexander.  This seat may not be as "safe" as some are making it.  Ford Jr. made Corker sweat until the very end.  In a year when the Republican brand is as tarnished as ever, it may be possible..even in Red Tennessee..that Padgett or Tuke can make this one a horse race.

Other states that are safe for GOP: ID, WY, NE, KS, OK, TX, MS(Cochran), AL, SC, GA. McConnell's looking safe for now in KY, although he's still not polling at 50% which gives some reason for concern. He's been leading around 8-10%. The GA race may be one to not look too far away from either.

Safe for Democrats: MT, SD, IA, AR, IL, WV, DE, NJ, RI, MA.

Right now, it looks like Democrats are sitting on 57. I'm counting on AK and either OR or MS to come through. A lot could change though.