Electoral Update - Obama Holds On, McCain Gains

Barack Obama gained one state last week (New Mexico) to put him over the 270 threshold.  This week, it's John McCain who's gaining. For the first time this year, John McCain has vaulted over the 200 mark.  Florida is now in the McCain column after remaining in tossup status for several weeks.  The last three consecutive polls show McCain leading, and it's the first poll to show either candidate with 50% since May.

FLORIDA POLLING

8/3/2008	Survey USA (689 L)	Obama 44%	McCain 50%	McCain +6
8/2/2008	PPP-D (807 L)	Obama 44%	McCain 47%	McCain +3
7/31/2008	Other (1600 R)	Obama 40%	McCain 45%	McCain +5

It's not yet clear whether or not McCain's negative attacks will have any sticking power to them. National numbers show little movement for either candidate, but polling in at least one key state indicates a possible shift for the GOP. June and July numbers in Wisconsin gave Obama double digit leads in nearly every poll. August polling shows McCain reducing that lead to single digits.  

We're anxiously awaiting new polls from Colorado, Virginia and Missouri. While other projections have Colorado in the tossup column, we're projecting Obama to be leading for the moment. Seven of the last eight polls show Obama leading.  

In probably the closest race in the nation, Virginia remains in the tossup column.  Of the last five polls, neither candidate has led by more than 2 points, well within the margin of error.  As for Missouri, McCain appears to be digging his heels in.  He's led by five or six in the last two polls, just on the verge of turning red.

From an electoral perspective, McCain is gaining while Obama is just holding on.  As Stephen Moody noted a few days ago, Barack Obama has to change the dialogue of this campaign.  He can't afford to waste time responding to petty attacks which compare him to Paris Hilton. Instead, he must guide the discussion, convincing Americans that John McCain is really nothing more than George Bush in disguise.