Alaska-Senate: Stevens Sinks

As we noted last week, Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska was indicted on federal charges, particularly bad news for the Senator since he was already locked into a tough, uphill race against the popular Democratic mayor of Anchorage (which is Alaska's biggest city and represents 40% of Alaska's population), Mark Begich. Now new polling, taken after news of the indictments broke, shows the impact and it's all good news for Begich.

Rasmussen, which had it being a 50-41% advantage for Begich just prior to the indictments, has released a new poll having Begich's lead increasing to a 50-37% margin; but another poll has the margin expanding even more.

Beltway (and subscription only) newspaper Roll Call has a poll from the Ivan Moore Research Group having Begich's lead expanding from a 51-43% lead to a 56-35% lead since the last poll they conducted. Perhaps just as importantly, they have Senator Stevens holding a 59-19% lead (admittedly with a sample of only 219 Republican primary voters, which is a very small sample) over his nearest competitor in the August 26th Republican primary, so it appears Begich and Chuck Schumer are getting the best of both worlds: an indicted incumbent, but a party still willing to nominate them. Were Stevens to step aside the Alaska GOP would have until mid-September to choose a replacement on the November ballot but Stevens has a reputation for being ornery, so that is unlikely.

The Rasmussen poll as well as the Ivan Moore Research poll also continue having Obama within a five point margin of McCain in a state that John Kerry lost by 25 points. This news will only increase the confidence of Obama's team that they can pry Alaska from the Republican column.