Thursday, August 7, 2008

US Senate Projection - Democrats Expected To Gain Big

A few weeks ago, we brought to you an analysis of a few key US Senate races. Today, we're introducing our first Balance of Power Projection for the 111th Senate. Between now and November 4th, we'll keep you informed of all the US Senate races and regularly update our projections based on our analysis of recent poll data.

There are 35 Senators up for reelection this year, and 23 of them are Republicans. Democrats are heavily favored to gain a minimum of four seats, and a few other close races could deliver one or two more.

The current balance of power in the 110th Senate stands at 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and 2 Independents. Democrats control congress because Sanders (I-VT) and Lieberman (I/D-CT) both caucus with Democrats. Assuming that Lieberman gets the boot in a few weeks, Democrats are sitting on 50 seats (including Sanders) going into November.

Our current projection has Democrats controlling the next Senate session with 55 seats (+5).  Republicans are projected to hold 42 seats, and three races remain in the tossup column.  Democrats have a lot of work to do if they expect to reach a filibuster proof majority (60 seats).  
AR - PryorAK- Begich +1MN - Franken/ColemanID - Jim RischAL - Sessions
DE - BidenCO- Udall +1MS* - Musgrove/WickerKY - McConnellGA - Chambliss
IA - HarkinLA- LandrieuOR - Merkley/SmithME - CollinsKS - Roberts
IL - DurbinNC - DoleMS* - Cochran
MA - KerryTN - AlexanderNE - Johanns
MI - LevinOK - Inhoffe
MT - BaucusSC - Graham
NH - Shaheen +1TX - Cornyn
NJ - LautenburgWY* - Enzi
NM - Udall +1
WY* - Barrasso
RI - Reed
SD - Johnson
VA - Warner +1
WV - Rockefeller
* state has more than one US Senate Race in 2008

Close Observations - Merkley & Hagan

Rasmussen Reports, just two weeks ago, showed Gordon Smith and Jeff Merkley tied in Oregon. Now, Survey USA shows Republican, Gordon Smith, leading by 12. Of the last four polls, two have been within the margin of error and two have indicated a nine to twelve point lead. Too much inconsistency in the polls keeps this race in the tossup column. Suppert Jeff Merkley today in this close race.

We're rooting for Kay Hagan in North Carolina. After "Liddy" Dole's disgusting attempt to add Jesse Helms' name to an HIV/AIDS relief bill...that's right, Jesse Helms, the deceased NC Senator who frequently opposed AIDS research and attributed the cause of HIV to "deliberate, unnatural acts"..., we hope Hagan crushes Dole like a bug. 

Speaking of Senators who are getting crushed, here's a video of Ted Stevens getting a friendly smooch from Ms. Liddy.  

Although Hagan is giving Dole the fight of a lifetime, she'll need all the help she can get to take down almighty Dole. Six polls from July show Dole with a lead somewhere around 10%.  But if you're a Republican incumbent in North Carolina, you're expected to be leading by 20.  The word on the street is that Dole is skipping the convention.  Dole's sweatin' now.   Help Kay Hagan keep the heat on Elizabeth Dole.

On Friday:  An updated Electoral Projection.  Gains for John McCain?

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