With just 92 days left until November 4th, there's been little change to the electoral map. From last week's projection, only one state has changed. New Mexico has now moved from "tossup" to leaning for Barack Obama.
Last week, we projected McCain to be trailing Obama, 268-175, just shy of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Based on the latest polling information available to us, we are now projecting Barack Obama to be over the top, leading John McCain, 273-175 (90 tossups).
In New Mexico, McCain has led in only one poll since February, and Obama has led in the last four of five (see below). Rasmussen, in the latest New Mexico poll, puts Obama up by six, and Obama leads McCain with "unaffiliated" voters by 5%.
As we mentioned in our last EP, nothing should be taken for granted. John Kerry led in virtually every poll in July and early August.
Where's the beef?
Although Obama's electoral outlook is in good shape today, it appears national numbers are moving in John McCain's direction. Whether or not these numbers hold remains yet to be seen. McCain's attack ads have made the difference, and Obama's strategy to remain totally silent doesn't appear to be working.
Picking up where Clinton left off, the McCain strategy is clear: Lure Obama into the fiery pit of negative politics. In his effort to remain above the fray, Obama has allowed McCain to chip away at the lead. While Obama can't fall into the trap of going negative himself as a response, he also can't afford to be reluctant to throw a punch when he needs to.
Obama must also remember how he got here in the first place. Voters believed him, more than Clinton, to be a truer agent of change. So far, he's been the representative of new politics, and he absolutely must keep reminding us of the consequences of old-school, Bush politics. Those reminders (high gas prices, faltering economy, ballooning deficit, broken borer, etc.) just happen to be
The political bullseye for Obama is convincing Americans that Bush and McCain are one in the same. He can hit his mark by hammering away with this message. This election is Barack Obama's to lose, but he'll have to break the silence and become a better fighter if he wants to sustain his lead through November.
NEW MEXICO POLLING DATA
Source: Dave Leip's Atlas of Presidential Elections
| Rasmussen (7/24) | Obama 49% | McCain 43% | Obama +6% |
| Survey USA(6/19) | Obama 49% | McCain 46% | Obama +3% |
| Rasmussen(6/19) | Obama 47% | McCain 39% | Obama +8% |
| Survey USA (5/18) | Obama 44% | McCain 44% | Tie |
| Rasmussen (5/14) | Obama 50% | McCain 41% | Obama +9% |
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