The fallout from the Ted Stevens scandal may be far greater than the loss of one senate seat. A new Hays Research poll in Alaska now shows Democrat Barack Obama leading there by five points.
It's been a very long time since Alaska was considered a swing state. In fact, Alaska has only once, ever, gone Democratic since becoming a state in 1959. Could Barack Obama become the first Democrat to win Alaska since Lyndon Johnson?
Even before the Stevens brouhaha, McCain was on thin ice. Most polls throughout the summer showed the Arizona Senator with only a five or six point lead. Comparing those numbers to the 30 point victories for George Bush in 2000 and 2004 gives Alaskan Democrats plenty of reason to believe their state may finally turn blue.
ALASKA RESULTS (source: Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections)
| 2000 | Bush 58.6% | Gore 27.7% | Bush + 30.9% |
| 2004 | Bush 61.1% | Kerry 32.5% | Bush + 28.6% |
We should also point out that Mark Begich has also made tremendous gains since Stevens, his opponent, was formally charged with seven felony counts of failing to disclose gifts received from an oil contractor. The last time a Democrat captured a US Senate seat in Alaska was 1974. Could Democrats be on the verge of making history in The Last Frontier? More on that in next Thursday's Balance of Power Projection.
Besides Alaska, the race essentially remains unchanged. The slight electoral changes over the last two weeks represent subtle nuances in the methodology we use to assign a state. As our writer LibraryPolitico said just days ago, the race remains static.
A Rasmussen poll yesterday shows McCain leading by a single point in Colorado, well within the margin of error (5%). This is the second poll in the last three weeks showing McCain with a small lead. Obama and McCain have split the last four polls, which is why we've moved this state from leaning Obama to tossup. My guess is that Colorado, along with Virginia and Ohio, will remain very close all the way to election day.
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