With Senator Obama's travels about to come to an end, I imagine the Veep guessing game will soon be underway full steam. In spite of the opinions of many of the talking media heads on cable TV, here are a few oft-mentioned VP choices for the Dems that I think are very long shots:
1. Sen. Evan Bayh (IN);
2. Sen. Jack Reed (RI);
3. Sen. Chris Dodd (CT).
All three of these sitting Democratic senators represent states with incumbent Republican governors. I don't think Sen. Harry Reid (NV), Senate Majority Leader, or Sen. Chuck Schumer (NY), head of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, would be any too happy about surrendering a senate seat that is sure to be taken by a Republican if the Obama ticket wins. Count Bayh, Reed and Dodd out.
Also mentioned often but equally unlikely to get the VP nod:
1. Gov. Bill Richardson (NM);
2. Sen. Chuck Hagel (NE).
Richardson's very public break with the Clintons during the primary left a lot of bitter feelings that make him a high-risk choice for Obama. Hagel, as indicated by the red font used for his name, is a Republican. Although he has been good on the Iraq War, Hagel's otherwise very conservative record makes him unacceptable to important constituencies in the Democratic Party. No way on either of these guys.
So, where does that leave us? There are three choices for Obama's VP that seem very viable. Each of them could bring as much to the Democratic ticket as any vice-presidential candidate is likely to do:
1. Sen. Hillary Clinton (NY). Yep, she's still on my list. She carries a lot of baggage for sure, but she probably has a lot more good baggage than bad.
2. Fmr. Sen. Sam Nunn (GA). He has tons of foreign policy experience and that re-assuring Southern accent that many Independents and moderate Republicans find so appealing. Nunn has some repair work to do with the powerful pro-choice and gay rights elements in the Democratic Party, but he could probably placate those groups with a well-timed 'death-bed' conversion on issues vital to them.
3. Sen. Joe Biden (DE). He also brings lots of foreign policy expertise, a certain gravitas and a well-deserved reputation as a fiery (to put it mildly) campaigner. The later, in fact, may be his biggest liability.
It's early days yet but that's where I see it right now.
Friday, July 25, 2008
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5 comments:
I tend to disagree with your picks here. I think Hillary is getting consideration mainly to appease her supporters... I would frankly be shocked if Obama puts her on the ticket, and I think she (and Bill) would overshadow Barack at times.
I think Biden and Richardson both have solid resumes for the job, but I think both will be passed over. Biden has a tendency to put his foot in his mouth at inopportune times, which would be a big liability, and I'm afraid an Obama-Richardson ticket might unfortunately alienate some white male voters (even though Bill has an Anglo last name). These two would be my short list for Secretary of State though.
Tim Kaine has been getting a lot of talk in the past few days, but I don't know what all he would bring to the ticket. He might give the Democrats an edge in the battleground state of Virginia, but frankly, he's really the third choice among Virginia running mate possibilities after Warner and Webb said they weren't interested. He has zero foreign policy experience, and his success as governor could be largely due to the coattails of his hugely popular predecessor (Warner). All that said, I personally think he's a very likable guy (he was mayor of Richmond, VA when I lived there, and we used to shop at the same grocery store) and wouldn't complain if he were chosen, even though there are better choices out there.
Which brings me to the guy I think is the front runner, the perenially mentioned Evan Bayh. Since moving to Indiana, I have personally never understood his immense popularity here, but Hoosiers love Evan, and he would likely tip the scales in favor of Obama in this surprising battleground state. I find him personally rather bland and unexciting, but that can sometimes be a positive for a running mate (he won't come close to overshadowing Obama). He's a former two term governor and has spent nearly a decade in the Senate, so he's got experience, but he's also got a youthful appearance that would work well with Barack. And giving the second slot to a big former Hillary backer might be a way to please her supporters without putting her on the ticket.
You may be right about Hillary. Time will tell. And who knows about Kaine?
I don't see how Bayh can be a realistic choice. He is certainly qualified. Perhaps he'd be the best choice if it weren't for the fact his replacement would be chosen by Mitch Daniels.
Besides winning the White House, Democrats are just as ambitious about gaining more seats in the Senate. Bayh's nomination as VP is an automatic minus one, and that is absolutely not an option during a year in which Democrats are favored to pick up seats and hang on to the ones they currently hold.
I'm from Indiana (no greater Hoosier fan on the planet I might add), and I like Bayh as much as anyone. I just don't see it happenin'.
Thanks so much for your comment, Tim. Actually, I think Evan Bayh would be a very good choice for Obama's VP. The problem, as Bill and I both have noted, is that Indiana has a sitting Republican governor who would certainly appoint a fellow Republican to replace Bayh in the senate. I cannot imagine Harry Reid or Chuck Schumer allowing that to happen.
As to Sen. Clinton, I do think she is a bit of a long-shot, but she is still a very viable choice for Obama. She certainly has the experience credentials to fill any perceived gaps Obama might have. However, as you point out, she and Bill would be a handful for any campaign to handle.
Both Nunn and Biden also bring the much trumpeted foreign policy experience and gravitas elements to the ticket, but neither is a household name and neither brings much electoral vote help.
If Gov. Richardson could repair his relations with the Clintons, he might be able to revive his VP prospects. I have read reports today that Richardson is in fact holding fund raisers to help Hillary retire some of her campaign's lingering debt. Is that a subtle hint that the New Mexico governor is try to heal the breach? Watch that closely.
The recent boomlet for Virginia Gov. Kaine seems a bit contrived to me -- whether by the governor himself or as a deliberate head-fake by the Obama campaign is not clear, however. To me, Gov. Kaine seems a little thin in the resume to really get the VP nod. However, it is possible I suppose.
Nunn is an interesting prospect, kind of akin to Bush picking Cheney in 2000... fairly well known and well respected former politician who has been out of the public eye for a bit. His experience certainly would help Obama silence critics who say he's too inexperienced. But I guess it all comes down to how much Obama wants to stress the concept of change... it's hard to play up "change" with a man who spent a quarter century in the Senate on the ticket.
I agree that Schumer and Reid want as many seats as possible. But unless they think the magic 60 cloture number is in reach, they can afford one seat. There's not much difference between 56 and 57, but if it's a difference between 59 and 60, then there is.
If I were the man to choose, I would personally pick Richardson. He has the best and most diverse resume, would solidly deliver New Mexico into the blue, and definitely help with coveted Hispanic voters. Plus, he's term limited in 2010, and his Lt. Gov. is also a Democrat, so nothing lost there. But, as I said before, sad as it is, I think a lot of America still isn't ready for two minorities on a ticket.
Perhaps Kaine is a bit of a smokescreen. Very interesting analysis of his pros and cons by Larry Sabato at http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2008072901 . But as I said, I think he's only the third best man from Virginia for the job. Mark Warner, of course, is focused on his Senate bid, and I don't think he'd take a spot on the ticket even if begged. Jim Webb repeatedly has denied interest, but he'd be an intriguing choice to say the least... former Republican and head of the Navy... that would complement Obama well.
I guess it all comes down to what Obama wants... if he wants experience, then maybe Bayh or Nunn is best, but if he to put his money where is mouth is as far as change, then a non-DC insider like Kaine may be the one.
In other, unrelated Vice Presidential news... it looks like Dan Quayle won't be Dancing with the Stars... http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080730/NEWS/80730050 .
Thanks for the comment Tim. You may be right about Richardson.
Nunn is an interesting choice. I believe Nunn and Obama have a working relationship already. Nunn's record on gay rights and abortion could be a deal breaker though.
On Webb. He was my first choice for so long. It was disappointing to hear him withdraw his name, but it's understandable.
I'm suspicious about all of this Kaine talk...or Kaine doing all the talking. Seems like a smokescreen to me.
Tim, we're always looking for writers. Send us an email if you're interested. Just click "contact Elect Blue" on the front page, or write to ElectBlue@comcast.net.
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