Hagan Receives Key Endorsement

This press release just in from the Hagan campaign.

GREENSBORO, N.C. - State Senator and U.S. Senate Candidate Kay Hagan (D-Guilford) received the endorsement of the North Carolina Troopers’ Association (NCTA) last week. After a thorough and objective evaluation of the candidates running for U.S. Senate, the group, which works to support the criminal justice system and advance the principles of proper law enforcement, endorsed Kay. The Troopers’ Association cited Kay’s strong record of working on behalf of public safety and working families. During her time in the state Senate, Kay worked to make North Carolina safer by supporting and introducing measures that would crack down on sexual predators, increase safety standards at schools, and allocate adequate funds to control gang activity.

“I am thrilled to receive the endorsement of North Carolina Troopers’ Association,” said Kay. “This is a group of individuals who represent the best of North Carolina, and I am honored to have their vote of confidence going forward in this election. Our state’s troopers work tirelessly to protect North Carolina families and ensure that North Carolina is the safest it can be. Their bravery and dedication are a model for us all. I look forward to doing everything I can to advocate on their behalf once I am in Washington.”

In a letter to Kay, Ron Crawford, President of the NCTA, wrote that Kay is “clearly the most qualified candidate for the U.S. Senate. Your record of supporting Troopers and police officers, of supporting improvements to public safety and for more effective law and order is extraordinary. Our troopers need a strong voice in Washington to lead efforts for legislation to promote Trooper and officer safety. The evidence demonstrates that you are the most qualified candidate to serve in the U.S. Senate.”

Last month, as a part of her “Best Interests, Not the Special Interests” tour, Kay released a comprehensive plan for “Safer Streets and Schools” that presented her commonsense solutions for curbing crime and gang activity. Also in July, Kay received the endorsement of more than half of North Carolina’s Sheriffs.

Electoral Update - The Home Stretch

The conventions are finished, Labor Day has passed, and the first debate is just 18 days away.  More and more Americans with each passing day will turn their attention to the candidates and their messages.  This is the home stretch.

In our seventh Electoral Projection, John McCain has picked up two states:  Indiana and Alaska.  North Dakota falls back into the tossup column. 

The last three polls in Indiana give us reason to believe that John McCain is edging Barack Obama there.  Since June, Obama has led in just one poll, and that was by a single point. Polling in Indiana also reveals that Obama is stuck in the 43-44% range while McCain consistently polls in the upper 40's.  

Alaska appears to be a lock for McCain with Palin on the ticket.  The latest poll now shows McCain leading by 19.  

North Dakota goes back into the tossup column after a new poll reveals a three point lead for Obama. North Dakota has remained surprisingly close all year long.  The last three polls show numbers within the margin of error.

With 57 days left until election day, the race for the White House is close.  Although Obama still remains just shy of the goal-line, he has a few good reasons to be optimistic. So far, he's been perfect in protecting his lead in traditionally close states like Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire.  His lead in all of these states has been consistent and mostly strong.  Obama has also widened his lead in New Mexico.  To give himself the best shot at winning on November 4th, he'll need to maintain his lead in these battlegrounds.

Close races of course pose challenges. Every remaining tossup state was won by George Bush in 2004. Nevada, Colorado, Virginia and Ohio are so close, nobody knows who's leading. Florida is also on the verge of becoming a tossup again. A victory for Obama in any of these states is almost certain to put him over the top.

We see a much softer electoral count for John McCain.  He's barely leading in Indiana.  And recent polls indicate Obama gaining on McCain to within three points in North Carolina. Florida remains even closer with Obama pulling ahead for the first time since July in the latest polling from Mason-Dixon.

One state is on the verge of turning blue.  The last two polls in Ohio show Obama leading McCain by small margins.  We should see more polling from Ohio this week. 

Neither candidate can seem to break the race wide open yet.  Of course, that can change if someone has a slip of the tongue or if new skeletons are found hiding in a certain someone's closet because s/he wasn't vetted properly.  

(click chart to enlarge)

AP to Neutrality and Logic: Drop Dead

The Associated Press has been a disgrace to journalism lately under the direction of their DC bureau chief Ron Fournier, who just last year was in serious talks with John McCain’s campaign as a paid advisor; and they are at it again.

Yesterday, the AP released another on a long line of many hit pieces on Senator Obama. This one proclaims that despite for all of Obama’s talk about expanding the electoral map, he is quickly adopting the “Win Ohio” strategy that John Kerry’s ill-fated campaign adopted in 2004. Their “evidence” for this is that Obama in his post-convention tour visited such traditional battlegrounds such as Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Quite obviously, this is proof that he has given up on all other states his campaign has targeted.

Let’s look at (and refute) some of the more dubious claims on the piece:

"Despite early optimism, Obama's strategists are mapping out an electoral plan similar to Democrat John Kerry's from 2004…. But don't look for the Democratic presidential nominee in, say, undeniably GOP Idaho.”

This is probably true…I do not expect to see Obama make a play in Idaho, however no one serious ever claimed he would. This is a state that George Bush (only Wyoming and Utah were more favorable to the GOP in 2004) won by nearly forty points. In other news, John Sidney McCain III isn't making a play in Vermont. Gasp!

"Obama has long looked for a way to win the White House without the 20 electoral votes of Ohio, the prototypical swing state. His top aides, including his campaign manager, once said they could lose the state and still win the election by picking off states that typically support Republicans. No more."

Really now? While Obama is still, as he always has, focusing a great deal of attention on Ohio, it is hardly his “be all and end all” of his electoral strategy. Let’s just consider this for a moment:

Michigan and New Hampshire are the only two Kerry states that McCain is even in striking distance, and in both states Obama is polling narrowly, but consistently, ahead of McCain. The Kerry states puts him at 252 electoral votes, and he now has a double digit lead in Iowa and a high single digit lead in New Mexico which would bring him to 264 electoral votes. Now Obama is not guaranteed to win the aforementioned four states, but he is clearly favored. 538’s regression model (not to mention essentially every poll) has him winning Michigan and New Hampshire by 3-4%; as well as Iowa and New Mexico by 7-9%. If these numbers hold, Obama is already at 264 electoral votes.

So where does that leave John Sidney McCain III? He would have to win states where he has a slight, though unclear polling advantages such as Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Montana, and North Dakota; all of which except the last two possess enough electoral votes to put Obama over 270, should he win.

Of course, there are also states like Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado where the race is essentially a deadheat (though 538’s regression gives Obama a very slight advantage in all three); that Obama can rely on to win. Even Nevada which, again, is a basic dead heat (though 538’s regression gives a very slight advantage for McCain as of this writing) would bring it in a 269-269 tie (Even if Obama loses all of the other states that I mentioned), which would probably result in his victory. While this area is murky and without a lot of precedent, most analysis confirms that Obama would likely prevail in a 269-269 tie, due to the Democratic advantage in Congress (See all of 538's regressions based on historical data and polling models here).

Needless to say, Senator Obama has plenty of electoral scenarios that don’t go through the Buckeye State. Maybe they should write a story on how Michigan is essentially a must-win for McCain (unless he wants to roll the dice and hope he runs the table among the other swing states).

Maybe the AP will consider being thoughtful and fair for once. But I'm not holding my breath.

Biden: On message and telling it like it is...

Here is Joe channeling Harry Truman.  It's a great piece of video from a campaign rally today in Langhorne, PA.  You're gonna love this.

Kay Hagan In Her Own Words

We are very pleased to post the following blog, sent exclusively to ElectBlue, by Kay Hagan, Democratic candidate for the US Senate from North Carolina. The seat is currently held by Republican Elizabeth Dole. Ms. Hagan writes:

Thank you for giving me the chance to update all the readers at ElectBlue about our campaign. I hope you will also take this chance and visit my website at www.kayhagan.com to learn more, watch our most recent videos and television ads, and tell your friends about my campaign.

Years from now, we’ll look back on this election – the historic turnout, the enthusiasm, the involvement of people from all walks of life, all ages, all over the country – and we’ll fully understand what we were all a part of in 2008.

There’s a groundswell of optimism here in North Carolina – optimism rooted in the fact that this is finally our chance for change, driving the belief that as tough as things may appear, the momentum is finally on our side.

When somebody asks me why I’m running, I tell them it’s because Washington is broken. Gas prices are nearly $4 a gallon; the opportunity to go to college feels farther out of reach; health care costs are putting pressures on every single family; and our economy is on the brink.

And while things are out of balance because the special interests have too much power in Washington, we’ve been doing things right in North Carolina. As a state senator for the past ten years, we’ve worked to increase teacher pay, raise the minimum wage and in my five years as the Budget Committee chair, we balanced our budget every year. Now that’s a far cry from what’s been going on in Washington.

With all due respect to Elizabeth Dole and her 40 years in Washington, she’s out of touch with North Carolinians and has become a reliable rubberstamp for George Bush, having voted with him 92% of the time. As North Carolinians are struggling to make ends meet, Elizabeth Dole continues as if it’s business as usual.

It’s a way of doing business that puts special interests and their lobbyists before working families in North Carolina; gives billions in tax breaks and incentives to oil companies when we’re paying nearly $4 a gallon; rewards companies who send North Carolina jobs overseas; and that’s built an economy structured around benefitting the big corporations while working families foot the bill.

I’m running for this seat because North Carolinians deserve better than Washington’s broken system, and I know I can level the playing field for middle class families. Thank you for your support!

Speech-Less

For those of you who were left wondering why in the world John McCain would use a green backdrop again, you'll really be confused after reading this.  

Talking Points Memo today reveals for us another McCain blooper.  This one's a doozie though.   Actually, this goes beyond blooper.  This is incompetence with a capital "I." 

Another look at the green backdrop reveals a building of what was supposed to be a picture of Walter Reed Medical Center in Washington D.C. Instead, for reasons only known to GOP Convention staff/interns, the image is actually of Walter Reed Middle School, located in North Hollywood, California.  

And these are the people who want to reform our government?

First Reactions To McCain's Speech

Taegan Goddard's Political Wire highlights some first reactions to McCain's acceptance speech last night.

Walter Shapiro: "His acceptance speech Thursday night was a mirror of McCain the contradictory political figure -- sometimes unorthodox and daring, sometimes plodding and pedestrian; rich in character, light in policy substance, much stronger in its sincere tone than in its rhetorical gloss."

Joe Klein: "More a valedictory than an acceptance speech -- more the end of a career than the beginning of a presidency."

Andrew Sullivan: "Quite a deflation after the drama of last night with the sportscaster-governor. It made me realize how much I am still fond of this guy. And also clearer about why this is not his moment. The specifics were very vague, and the entire presentation based on biography, nostalgia and a kind of strained, exhausted mildness. His performance at Saddleback was much, much better. He seemed very tired to me."

Jonathan Martin: "McCain hit all his message targets, eschewing partisan red meat to cast himself as a man who will work across party lines to reform a broken capital. But his delivery, especially in the first portion when he was discussing policy issues, was uninspired and did little to captivate the audience."

Michael Crowley: "...this is a very underwhelming speech. Familiar points explained in pedestrian terms. No overarching themes--right now it's sounding like a State of the Union laundry list. Even the crowd in the hall isn't jazzed. This is the sort of reception Tom Ridge got."

David Corn: "He offered an unexciting mix of GOP orthodoxy and declarations of personal maverickness--which was capped by yet one more long and detailed recounting of his POW days of forty years ago. Enough already."

Mark Halperin: "All in all, he came across as calm, honorable, and dedicated rather than fired up and ready to go."

Poll: Hagan Still Leading Dole In NC - Obama gains

A second straight poll in North Carolina shows incumbent Liddy Dole in deep trouble.

Last week, PPP showed Hagan taking a 3 point lead.  Now, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research has released a new poll showing Kay Hagan extending her lead over Dole, 50-45 (48-43 without leaners). Survey in pdf format here.

Key findings:  

•  Just 38% of voters approve of the way Dole is handling her job as a Senator.
  
•  Only 22% of voters in North Carolina believe the nation is on the right track.

Support Kay Hagan today in her campaign to defeat Liddy Dole.  Click here to contribute.

Respondents were also asked about their choice for president.  McCain holds a razor-thin margin over Obama 47-43 (Barr 4%).  Without leaners, the race is tied 43-43.  Bush won North Carolina by 12.5% in 2004 and 13% in 2000.

Key findings:  

• 59% of respondents believe John McCain represents "more of the same."
  
• Voters believe Barack Obama would handle the economy better by a 52-38 margin.
  
• 70% of respondents believe John McCain "supports George Bush's policies."
  
• Obama leads McCain 50-41 on the issue of "building strong alliances with other countries."

Fight back against the GOP Convention lies.  Support Barack Obama today with a $10.00 contribution.

The Non-Issue Issue

So eloquently stated by Rick Davis on Tuesday, John McCain’s campaign manager.  From the Washington Post:

"This election is not about issues. This election is about a composite view of what people take away from these candidates."

In response to Davis' comments, David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager had this to say.

"We appreciate Senator McCain's campaign manager finally admitting that his campaign is not in fact about the issues the American people care about, which is exactly the kind of cynical old politics people are ready to change."

No wonder speakers have been avoiding important issues during the Republican convention. They simply don't believe issues are important.  With regard to key issues, they have no accomplishments to hang their hat on.  As I've said before:

They can't talk about the economy, because Republicans have single-handedly wrecked it.

They can’t talk about healthcare because they’ve fought tooth and nail against every Democratic measure to make it more affordable.

They can't talk about Iraq without flip-flopping on whether or not there should be a "timeline/time horizon" for withdrawing troops.

How about creating jobs in America? Whoa! Because they're more interested in giving tax breaks to corporations who ship American jobs overseas, they better avoid that one.

Accomplishments with regard to energy? You can laugh now (or keep laughing). Now, they say drill, drill, drill. As if all of a sudden Republicans have answers. Imagine a bunch of Republicans wanting to drill for oil. Surprised?

They can't talk about gas prices for obvious reasons. It's still $3.60 a gallon where I live.

They can't talk about education because too many of them are practically against it. Cut funding...lower taxes on the rich...cut funding...lower taxes on the rich.  Where's the priority?

Even the old standby moral values card is off the table. Abortions have not decreased much under Bush’s leadership (they decreased by far greater numbers under Clinton), & the “sanctity of marriage” argument is a hot potato they can’t hold onto after Craig, Vitter and Foley exposed revealed their “holy” practices.

So, there's little wonder why John McCain's campaign manager, Rick Davis, would rather not talk about the issues. Fortunately for him, he’s in good company. So far, not once, have I heard the word “economy” mentioned at the Republican convention. Plenty of attacks on Obama. But where’s the beef?

New Polls: Support for Key GOP Senators Collapsing

There is a new - and potentially dramatic - finding in three separate US Senate races. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has posted this report on its website:

With the Republican convention in full swing in St. Paul, three new polls from Survey USA show approval ratings for Republican Senators Norm Coleman, Gordon Smith and Mitch McConnell collapsing. In Minnesota, Norm Coleman’s approval has dropped to 44%, with 51% disapproving – an all-time high. In Oregon, Gordon Smith’s job approval has dropped to 38%, with 56% disapproving – his approval rating is at an all time low and has dropped 7 points since last surveyed in May. In Kentucky, Mitch McConnell’s approval has dropped to 44%, with 47% disapproving – his approval rating is down 13 points since SUSA last polled in May.

Historically, approval ratings below 50% have spelled disaster for incumbent candidates. That's gotta be good news for Al Franken in MN, Jeff Merkley in OR and Bruce Lunsford in KY. 

Musgrove Exposes Wicker's Big Spending Ways

One of the under-the-radar U.S. Senate races is the special election in Mississippi between appointed (by special interests..err...Governor Barbour) Senator Roger Wicker and former Governor Ronnie Musgrove to fill the final four years of Senator Trent Lott's (who resigned when he discovered being in the minority was no fun) term. Despite the state's GOP reputation, the race is very competitive in all polls; and Barack Obama's presence on the ballot will help with African-American turnout, which will only help Musgrove.

Roger Wicker served seven terms in Congress and achieved very little other than voting for irresponsible trade deals that sold out places like Mississippi, while filling his campaign war-coffers. Despite representating a strong Republican district that gave Bush over 60% of the vote, his district was always ambivalent towards him; so much so that this ruby red district elected a Democrat to replace him.

Being a creature of Washington, Roger Wicker never found a wasteful spending appropriation he didn't like. As Governor Musgrove recently said, ""We've got to stop out of control spending" and "We need to stop the partisan politics in Washington and get things moving." and that trade deals like NAFTA "just took jobs out by the droves." He added Washington (and creatures of the Beltway like Roger Wicker) has "forgotten what its business is. It's the people's business, not special interest."

If you want to help a leader like Governor Musgrove turn this country around and give Democrats a filibuster proof majority in the United States Senate, please donate today to Governor Musgrove's campaign.

Franken Ties Coleman To Big Oil. Outlines Tax Relief.

The DSCC and Al Franken both have new ads out tying incumbent Republican, Norm Coleman, to Big Oil, Ted Stevens, and President Bush. Even Billy Bass knows when something smells fishy!

Besides his new ads, Franken has just published a new economic stimulus plan of his own. This one for Minnesotans. Recognizing the thousands of children who are in desperate need of child care and the increasing numbers of retirees in the coming years, Franken outlines common sense solutions in his Kitchen Table Tax Relief.

McConnell's 2008 Blue Fate

"I’d love to tell you I’d be majority leader next year, but there is virtually no chance we will get Senate back." - Mitch McConnell, September 2, 2008

Translation:   "I won't be majority leader next year because Lunsford is a tough opponent who is more than capable of crushing me."

I've heard of lowering expectations before, but this takes the cake.  It's at least fair to say McConnell is suffering from a contagious case of severe political inadequacy.

Five New National Polls Show Obama Bounce

Five new national polls were released today. Here they are, as summarized by RealClearPolitics.com:

Gallup Tracking:    Obama 50, McCain 42                  Obama  +8

Rasmussen Tracking:    Obama 51, McCain 45          Obama  +6

USA Today/Gallup:    Obama 50, McCain 43              Obama  +7

Hotline/FD:    Obama 48, McCain 39                           Obama  +9

CBS News:    Obama 48, McCain 40                              Obama  +8

Looking good (for now).

A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words... maybe more

Eight of Governor Palin's nine and a half years' of executive experience were acquired in a small office in this building:

James Carville said: "It looks like a Louisiana bait shop". I don't think I can improve on that.