Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota. Bleeding red states? It doesn't appear so any longer. If you've been following polls over the last several weeks, you'll know already that Barack Obama is giving John McCain a run for his money where the Great Plains meets the Rocky Mountains.
A senior NRA official, in Nashville for a GOP fundraiser, told me today, "We're surprised it's so close."
Close indeed.
Here are the lastest polls from July:
| MT | Rasmussen | July 1, 2008 (500 LV) | Obama 48 | McCain 43 | Obama +5 |
| ND | Rasmussen | July 8, 2008 (500 LV) | Obama 46 | McCain 47 | McCain +1 |
| SD | Rasmussen | July 9, 2008 (500 LV) | Obama 43 | McCain 47 | McCain +4 |
But how close this race remains is yet to be seen. When pressed, the same official revealed a likely NRA campaign in these and other western states.
"We're gonna see if he can take a hard punch."
Who would have ever doubted that? The NRA is expected to spend as much as $18 million during this election cycle.
However, dealing with Senator McCain's real record on gun control may prove tough for the pro-gun organization. McCain and the NRA have had "high profile disagreements" in the past, and if the NRA keeps their promise not to sugarcoat a candidate's record, they may well find it difficult to persuade voters and their contributers that John McCain is worth the fight.
In 2004, The National Review published a "second amendment tip sheet," which highlighted NRA ratings for members of Congress. McCain's grade from the NRA's Political Victory Fund was a C. Even worse was his grade from Gun Owners Of America, an F-. His overall rating from the NRA is a C+.
McCain's record is spotty at best. He opposed an extension of the assault weapons ban. But McCain's divorce from the NRA was made final for many members when he supported a bill that would have placed a federal ban on all gun shows. Campaign finance reform, another hot button with the NRA, literally has McCain's name written all over it. That didn't set well either.
Although Obama and the NRA aren't exactly buddies, McCain will need all the help he can get to carry some of these blue trending western states. It's a certainty the NRA will be pushing hard for McCain. It is equally certain that Senator Obama will exploit the many weaknesses in John McCain's second amendment record.
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