Elect Blue.Org

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Popular Vote Prediction

Here's my best estimate of what the final popular vote tally for the Presidential election will be.

Obama: 52.5%

McCain: 46.0%

Others: 1.5%

Monday, November 3, 2008

Dixville Notch Surprise: Obama!

For the first time in forty years, a Democrat has won the Presidential vote in the the tiny New Hampshire village of Dixville Notch. Here are the results, just announced a few moments ago:

Barack Obama: 15 votes

John McCain: 6 votes

Ralph Nader: 0 votes

The last Democrat to win in Dixville Notch was Hubert Humphrey in 1968. See our earlier post about this quaint New England village's tradition of voting at midnight and counting the votes immediately.

Our Final Electoral Vote Projection: Obama-Biden!

It's crunch time and we're not going to be coy - or equivocal - about our final electoral vote projection for 2008. For this final prediction we have assigned all toss-up states to one candidate or the other. We have also eliminated the distinction between a state that is leaning to a candidate and one that is solidly for a candidate.

When the votes are counted tomorrow night, the electoral votes of every state will be awarded to one ticket or the other with no toss-ups and no difference based on margin of victory. Our final projection now conforms to the harsh reality of American Presidential elections.

That said, there are no changes to the states we indicated in our last projection were in the Obama column or the McCain column. Now they all show up on our map as either solid blue or solid red - the pale shading is gone.

That gave Obama a starting point of 338 EVs and McCain 160 EVs for our final projection. We then had to assign our previous toss-up states (four) and their electoral votes (forty) to one side or the other. Using the latest polling data, some historical trends, the available early voting data and some subjective assessments based on our experience with these states, we made the following assignments:

North Dakota (3 votes): to McCain

Indiana (11 votes): to McCain

Missouri (11 votes): to Obama

North Carolina (15 votes): to Obama

This brings Barack Obama to a total of 364 Electoral Votes and John McCain to 174.

The map to the right shows how we think the race will end up after all the votes are counted. It's nothing short of an electoral landslide for the Obama-Biden ticket.

Now we're going to cross our fingers and hope that we are right.

Dixville Notch, NH: Only Hours From Casting Nation's First Ballots

Just after midnight (Eastern) tonight, voters in the tiny New Hampshire village of Dixville Notch will be among the first to cast their ballots on election day itself. Shortly thereafter, their votes will be counted (assuming all eligible voters have been accounted for). The results will be made public immediately, making them the very first real vote tallies to be known.

The tradition of everyone voting at midnight and then having their votes counted immediately is an old one in this far-north hamlet which lies less than 20 miles from the Canadian border. Beginning at least as far back as 1960, Dixville Notch voters have had their fifteen minutes of fame every four years. It's an overwhelmingly Republican area, so Democrats should not be expecting much from - or reading anything into - the outcome.

In 2004, Dixville Notch had twenty-six registered voters: 13 Republicans, 11 Independents and only two Democrats. In the Presidential contest that year, Bush defeated Kerry 19 votes to seven, although Kerry went on to win the Granite State by a very narrow margin.

UPDATE: CNN reports that there are currently 20 registered voters in Dixville Notch: five Democrats, four Republicans and 11 Independents. This gives Democrats a slight edge over Republicans among partisan voters for the first time since the village began its early vote counting tradition in 1960. Independents, however, now make up a majority of the hamlet's electorate. Maybe the results later tonight will be more interesting.

Daily Tracking Polls: Righteous Wind Is Blowing

Here are the tracking poll results for today, November 3rd.

Gallup Daily Tracking*: Obama 55%, McCain 44%

Rasmussen Daily Tracking: Obama 52%, McCain 46%

Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracking: Obama 50%, McCain 45%

Research 2000 Daily Tracking: Obama 51%, McCain 45%

*Final Pre-Election Estimate

Song for Boomer Barack Backers

If this video tugs at your political heart, you're probably well over forty. If you're under forty, click play to step back in time for a couple of minutes. You'll enjoy the journey, guaranteed.

h/t: BobCesca

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Not-Joe, Not-A-Plumber Ain't Quite Right In The Head

This video clip of Mr. Wurzelbacher's interview on Faux News earlier today makes me wonder if good old "Joe" might have hit his head on a lead pipe once too often:

Yep, you heard that right. This skinhead wanna-be doubts that Senator Obama is a loyal American.

Maybe he and Rep. Michele Bachman (R-MN) could hook-up. How about a cozy little chalet and a long weekend at Berchtesgaden for these two throw-backs to the 1930s? Eine sehr gute Idee, nicht? Jawohl!

h/t: TPM