Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Obama Outperforming Kerry in Key NC & IN Districts
A few Survey USA polls this morning reveal more very good numbers for Barack Obama.
Electoral Update - Staging the Fat Lady
Roger Simon of Politico says this morning that the outlook for McCain is "bleak." Howard Wolfson is calling the McCain campaign a "casualty." Jay Cost of Real Clear Politics says McCain is in a "terrible spot." Peter Wehner labels the challenge ahead as a "daunting task." And Joe Klein compares McCain's campaign to "throwing crap against a wall."So, forgive me if it takes incredible restraint to keep from saying, "It's over. John McCain is toast."
2004
I know what you're thinking already!
Yes, yes.. it's important to remember that we have nearly a month left until Election Day. However, it's a steep climb and a far stretch for John McCain to win, and here's why.
As we've mentioned before several times, John Kerry's 2004 states represent 252 electoral votes. It's important to know that Barack Obama is performing very well in every one of those states. He's solidified his position in PA, MI, WI, NH and MN appears to be shaping up too. He's also performing very well in Iowa (7) and New Mexico (5), two states that Bush won in 2004.
252 (Kerry States) + 12 (IA/NM) = 264
That leaves Obama needing just six electoral votes to get to the magic 270. Just six. That's it. And just where can Obama find six electoral votes? There are many possibilities.
Nevada (5) where Obama has led in the last three consecutive polls. For that reason, we're moving Nevada from tossup to leans Obama.
Colorado (9) where Obama leads by an average of five points over the last several polls. Rasmussen/Fox News, just today, has Obama leading by six points.
In Virginia (13), polls yesterday and today show Obama winning by large margins.
More than 600,000 new voters have been registered in North Carolina (15) in 2008. Maybe that's part of the reason why polls lately have not only shown Barack Obama leading but also Kay Hagan. We're moving North Carolina from the tossup list to the leans Obama column.
Missouri (11) had been polling in John McCain's favor all year. Late polls now show Barack Obama leading here; however, there are not enough recent polls for us to know where the race stands. Don't be surprised if the Show-Me state reveals more polling favoring Obama this week.
Florida (27) and Ohio (20) are once again big trophies. As we said last week, John McCain absolutely must win both to have any chance of becoming the nation's next president. McCain who once was leading in both states is now behind. That is especially clear in Florida where Obama appears to be in control. Fox News/Rasmussen's poll from today shows Obama winning by 7, and Quinnipiac less than a week ago had Obama winning by 8.
Ohio (20) is not as clear to us not only because recent polls have gone back and forth but also because we are not clear about new voter registration numbers. RCP's Ohio average favors Obama by 3.5 points. As we've promised, Ohio will remain in the tossup until a clear leader emerges.
These states have a combined 100 electoral votes, and Obama needs just six of them. John McCain needs virtually every one from all seven states. While it is quite possible for McCain to win a few of these states, the probability of him winning every one (or even all but one) is quite remote.
He will need a real game changer..an October surprise..if he's to have any shot at all. It's no exaggeration to say that tonight's debate is a do-or-die situation for McCain.
Possible? It certainly is. In the meantime, someone should be telling the fat lady to clear her throat. She's the next act to perform.
Here are some interesting facts about Ohio from the 2004 election.
- John Kerry lost Ohio by 181,601 votes (-2.1%).- Hamilton County, Cincinnati, favored George Bush (222,616) over John Kerry (199,679). -5.41%- One in five voters in 2004 voted in either Franklin or Cuyahoga counties. Kerry won both.- Counties with the largest numbers of voters.
| County | Kerry | % | Bush | % |
| 1. Cuyahoga | 448,503 | 66.57% | 221,600 | 32.89% |
| 2. Franklin | 285,801 | 54.35% | 237,253 | 45.12% |
| 3. Hamilton | 199,679 | 47.09% | 222,616 | 52.50% |
| 4. Montgomery | 142,997 | 50.60% | 138,371 | 48.97% |
| 5. Summit | 156,587 | 56.67% | 118,558 | 42.91% |
| 6. Lucas | 132,715 | 60.21% | 87,160 | 39.54% |
| 7. Stark | 95,337 | 50.59% | 92,215 | 48.93% |
| 8. Butler | 56,243 | 33.71% | 109,872 | 65.86% |
| 9. Lorain | 78,970 | 56.11% | 61,203 | 43.49% |
| 10. Mahoning | 83,194 | 62.60% | 48,761 | 36.69% |
| 11. Lake | 59,049 | 48.47% | 62,193 | 51.05% |
| 12. Trumbull | 66,673 | 61.65% | 40,977 | 37.89% |
We will be publishing two updates per week between now and Election Day, a mid-week update on Tuesday and a more thorough analysis every Friday.
Far Fetched and Off Balance
Here's a partial screenshot of the state-run media's webpage this morning. Fair & Balanced? They reported, and we've decided alright. We've decided they just can't help themselves. But do they have to look so desperate?
Wonder why Corsi would be in Kenya these days? Looking for dirt on Obama perhaps? Naw! And somehow a story about volunteers giving rides to Ohio's homeless deserves a small line right under Corsi's picture.
Monday, October 6, 2008
Where Are They Now?
The on-going meltdown on Wall Street may have jogged the memories of more than a few investors about all those heady predictions, only a few years back, of a soaring stock market in the 21st century. For example, this bestseller from 1999:
Makes you kinda wonder what ever happened to the financial geniuses who wrote this tripe. Well... let me help with that:
James K. Glassman is now a senior State Department official in the Bush administration. He has the job previously held by long-time Bush buddy from Texas, Karen Hughes. Sweet, huh?
But wait, it gets better:
Kevin A. Hassett is now a senior economic advisor to the McCain campaign! Now that explains a lot.
You just couldn't make this stuff up.
h/t: PamsHouseblend
Quote of the Day
"John McCain is out of touch. He is out of ideas... and he's fast running out of time."
Coming Tomorrow: Electoral Update
Beginning tomorrow, ElectBlue will post Electoral Updates twice every week for the remainder of the election season. Besides our regular Friday update, we will also be providing a Tuesday projection as well.
Today's Tracking Polls: Yes We Can!
Gallup Tracking: Obama 50%, McCain 42%
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 52%, McCain 44%
Diageo/Hotline: Obama 47%, McCain 41%
Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 40%
GW/Battleground: Obama 50%, McCain 43%
Bush-McCain Economics: Rotten to the Core
Writing yesterday for The Huffington Post, US Congressman Jim Cooper (D-TN), succinctly describes the economic mess created by eight years of Republican rule in Washington:
"...for the past eight years America has been digging our hole deeper with more deficit spending. (George W. Bush, you'll recall, has borrowed more money from foreign nations than his 42 predecessors--combined.) America can't afford to let these problems fester, and after this week, Congress can no longer feign ignorance. We went into the basement to bail out the economy, and guess what we discovered? There are termites in the woodwork.
On Nov. 5--Barack Obama's first day as president-elect--I hope he'll put on his exterminator gear and begin a thorough inspection of our fiscal house, because it's been rotted by termites. The last owners only had the place for eight years, but they did a "heck of a job" weakening government from the inside out. I've got a plan to get control of our long-term finances, but I don't care whose plan we use, as long as we get started soon. Only a solvent government will be able to rebuild our economy and meet the many challenges of the 21st century."
Sunday, October 5, 2008
Quote of the Day
From Arianna Huffington yesterday, referring to Sarah Palin in particular and other so-called leaders in general :
"It's in our DNA to fear evil genius. But we still have to be trained to recognize the dangers of clueless mediocrity."
Today's Tracking Polls: Obama Keeps on Rolling
Tracking polls for Sunday, October 5th:
Gallup Tracking: Obama 50%, McCain 43%
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 51%, McCain 44%
Diageo/Hotline: Obama 48%, McCain 41%
Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 40%
Obama Campaign Unveils Preemptive Attack Against GOP Smears
This hard-hitting ad will begin airing tomorrow on cable networks around the country. It is described by the Obama campaign as 'preemptive', aimed at blunting an expected torrent of negative ads from the Republicans in the final weeks of the race.
Note to Republicans: Minnesota Isn't Poachable
It seems that every couple years Republicans make a big play late for Minnesota. While the state is much different than the state that voted for the Democratic nominee in 1980, 1984, and 1988, despite anemic nationwide results in those years; the state still has a slight, but significant Democratic lean. George Bush made a big play for the state in both 2000 and 2004, but lost the state by 2 (he was aided by a Nader candidacy that drained 5% off of Gore's total) and 4 points respectively.
In 2006, when vulnerable Democratic Senator Mark Dayton announced his retirement, Republicans were drooling at what they thought would be an easy pickup with the allegedly up and coming Republican Congressman Mark Kennedy. However, the DSCC and Amy Klobuchar went on the air early and defined the race; and she won the race by 20 points and won all but eight of Minnesota's counties.
But going into 2008, Republicans held out hope for the Gopher State, and even decided to hold their convention and the Twin Cities. But as history has shown, Minnesota is quickly becoming a less expensive version of New Jersey for Republicans. As recently as Thursday, McCain’s advisors were citing Minnesota as one of the states they were hoping to poach since Michigan is no longer an option.
Polling has been all over the map in the state, but the heralded Star-Tribune poll (good rule of thumb: When polls are divergent, trust the pollster who polls the state in question with regularity) was released over the weekend showing both Barack Obama and Al Franken opening up significant leads of double digits for both candidates.
Obama leads McCain 55-37% (up from 45-45% early in September in this poll), and Franken has opened up a 43-34% lead (with the independent in the race polling at 18%), a 13 point swing from the last poll that had Brooklyn born Norm Coleman up by four points. Despite McCain vastly outspending Obama in the state, Obama has been able to open up the lead mainly on the back of economic concerns, whereas Franken’s lead in this poll is mainly attributed (by the proprietors of this poll) to attrition of the ad war currently going on in the state (the Minnesota Senate race is the nastiest and the most personal race in the country at the moment). One thing to watch in that Senate race is the number of the independent candidate, Dean Barkley, who is currently polling at 18% and is climbing. If that trend continues, who will he take votes from and if he collapses (as many independents do as election day approaches) who will his votes flow to?
While these poll numbers look good (though this poll has been accused as having a slight Democratic lean), don’t be complacent and help Barack Obama and Al Franken keep Minnesota blue.
In 2006, when vulnerable Democratic Senator Mark Dayton announced his retirement, Republicans were drooling at what they thought would be an easy pickup with the allegedly up and coming Republican Congressman Mark Kennedy. However, the DSCC and Amy Klobuchar went on the air early and defined the race; and she won the race by 20 points and won all but eight of Minnesota's counties.
But going into 2008, Republicans held out hope for the Gopher State, and even decided to hold their convention and the Twin Cities. But as history has shown, Minnesota is quickly becoming a less expensive version of New Jersey for Republicans. As recently as Thursday, McCain’s advisors were citing Minnesota as one of the states they were hoping to poach since Michigan is no longer an option.
Polling has been all over the map in the state, but the heralded Star-Tribune poll (good rule of thumb: When polls are divergent, trust the pollster who polls the state in question with regularity) was released over the weekend showing both Barack Obama and Al Franken opening up significant leads of double digits for both candidates.
Obama leads McCain 55-37% (up from 45-45% early in September in this poll), and Franken has opened up a 43-34% lead (with the independent in the race polling at 18%), a 13 point swing from the last poll that had Brooklyn born Norm Coleman up by four points. Despite McCain vastly outspending Obama in the state, Obama has been able to open up the lead mainly on the back of economic concerns, whereas Franken’s lead in this poll is mainly attributed (by the proprietors of this poll) to attrition of the ad war currently going on in the state (the Minnesota Senate race is the nastiest and the most personal race in the country at the moment). One thing to watch in that Senate race is the number of the independent candidate, Dean Barkley, who is currently polling at 18% and is climbing. If that trend continues, who will he take votes from and if he collapses (as many independents do as election day approaches) who will his votes flow to?
While these poll numbers look good (though this poll has been accused as having a slight Democratic lean), don’t be complacent and help Barack Obama and Al Franken keep Minnesota blue.
Saturday, October 4, 2008
Quote of the Day
"To act coolly, intelligently and prudently in perilous circumstances is the true test of a man - and also of a nation."
-- Adlai E. Stevenson
1900-1965
Glue Not Lipstick
Republican VP candidate Sarah Palin is quoted in a number of media sources as having said that Senator Barack Obama is "palling around with terrorists". Ms. Palin's remarks were made today at a Republican fundraiser in Englewood, CO.
Say what, Sarah? Barack Obama is friends with terrorists? Terrorists?? You know, those fanatics who wantonly kill and maim innocent men, women and children for the sake of their own extremist ideology and perverted religious views. He's 'palling around' with those types of people?
Do you seriously think, Ms Palin, that Barack Obama is friends with terrorists? Are you so desperate to win this election that you will say anything? Or have you just drunk too much of the kool-aid all those far right coaches have been feeding you for the past month? Just what the hell are you thinking? Have you no sense of decency at all?
Barack Obama is a distinguished and accomplished American political leader. He holds a law degree from one of the finest schools on the planet. He worked tirelessly, with little reward, to help the most down-trodden among us in his community in Chicago. He served in the same state legislature that molded the political views of Abraham Lincoln.
Barack Obama is a sitting United Sates Senator from a state that is the epitome of America as a whole. He is the Presidential nominee of the oldest political party on earth. He has already received the votes of nearly twenty million Americans this year. He is working a brutal and demanding schedule, twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week to make our country a better place for all of us.
Barack Obama is a faithful husband, a loving father and a devout Christian. He is a deeply patriotic man, utterly committed America's security and prosperity. He believes passionately in the very American dream which he so clearly personifies. And you, Ms. Palin, think this honorable man is hanging out with terrorists who would destroy everything he believes in?
Shame on you, Sarah Palin! You must retract your thoughtless words and apologize to Senator Obama, to his supporters and to the entire American people now. If, incredibly, you have neither any remorse nor an iota of regret for your hateful words, then do this, Ms Palin. Put down the lipstick and smear those pitbull lips of yours with a thick layer of permanent glue. You and the American Republic will both be the better for it.
"The Ultimate Bridge to Nowhere"
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