And the Winner is...

This from Nate Beeler, political cartoonist for The Washington Examiner:

Today's Tracking Polls: More 'Mo' for Obama

Tracking polls for today:

Gallup Tracking:  Obama 50%, McCain 42%

Rasmussen Tracking:  Obama 51%, McCain 45%

Diageo/Hotline:  Obama 48%, McCain 41%

Research 2000:  Obama 52%, McCain 40%

Sweet Saturday morning!

Music for the Swing Voter

Quote of the Day

Lest we get too confident with the very encouraging polls these days, there is this quote worth remembering from the late Harold Wilson: 

"In politics, a week is a lifetime."

Wilson was the Prime Minister of Great Britain who led the Labour Party to four election victories in the 1960s and 1970s.

Dick Morris Has Lost It

Or maybe he never had it to begin with.

Two weeks ago, his electoral projection showed Iowa as a tossup. Today (click here for Morris map), it shows Tennessee and Arizona as tossups. Trend estimates show a 20 point lead for McCain in Tennessee and a 22 point lead in Arizona.

This coming from the same guy who wrote Condi vs. Hillary. I'm not surprised.

Electoral Update - McCain's Slow Motion Implosion

Last week, John McCain was on the brink of disaster. Today, his campaign is a disaster.

With just 31 days left until Election Day, John McCain's campaign is collapsing. For two weeks, several national polls have shown a growing momentum for Barack Obama. Swing state polling however had been slow to show the same effect..until now.

McCain's bread and butter (Florida and Ohio) are now toast. The collapse is especially visible in Florida where seven polling organizations in the last week have conducted surveys.  Six of the seven show Obama leading by three to seven points. For the first time since our first projection, Florida now leans Obama. As for Ohio, Obama is gaining there too; however, the contest in the Buckeye state remains very close. As promised, we intend to keep Ohio in the tossup column until a clear leader emerges.

We also made the same promise about Virginia. Virginia (13) has remained in the tossup column for the whole year except for the week directly after the RNC when we projected McCain to be leading. Since our last projection, three of five polls show Obama passing McCain with numbers at or above the 50% mark. ARG, who shows a three point edge for McCain, has often been erratic in 2008 (see RCP's response to Nate Silver), and Mason-Dixon also found McCain to be leading in their last poll on 9/22. But given what we know about Obama's surge in national averages and polling in neighboring North Carolina (15), we project Virginia to be leaning slightly for Obama.

Florida (27) + Ohio (20) = 47

Florida and Ohio are absolutely necessary for John McCain to win. Even with those states, getting to 270 will be difficult given what we know about Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, and McCain's busted hope on Michigan. As my good friend and fellow blogger Stephen Moody said earlier:

"The abandonment of a serious effort in Michigan further complicates an increasingly difficult challenge for the McCain campaign to garner the necessary 270 electoral votes for a victory on Nov. 4th. Now more than ever, both Florida and Ohio have become must-wins for the GOP ticket."

Obama's momentum is broad and deep and is evident in three of the categories we use for our projection.

1. States that previously were leaning Obama have now moved to solid Obama (PA, MI, NJ, NM, OR).
   
2. Two states previously listed as tossup have now moved to lean Obama (VA, FL).
   
3. Two states that were previously leaning McCain are now tossup (MO, NV).

It's safe to say that this is Barack Obama's high water mark for the year so far. For eleven weeks Obama's electoral advantage has remained flat, primarily because of Florida and Ohio. Those two nuts haven't been easy for Obama to crack. The recent crash on Wall Street, Palin's wobbly interview, Obama's debate win, and McCain's gimmickery all have dragged the Republican ticket down. John McCain, just from last week alone, has lost 43 electoral votes. 

Questions to consider between now and next week:

1. Is Barack Obama's lead sustainable? 

Much has been made of the buyer's remorse theory this year. While voter's may have been weary of Barack Obama months ago, they don't appear to be now. Charges that he may be inexperienced or an amateur have been undermined by McCain's real amateur running mate. Obama's first debate performance also reassured independent voters of his ability to handle foreign affairs.  It appears that for the first time many voters are becoming comfortable with the idea of a President Obama.

2. Will the slow motion collapse of John McCain's campaign accelerate, slow down, or stop? 

The electoral ceiling for Barack Obama is somewhere between 50 and 60 votes higher than our current projection estimate. The last three weeks have been a complete disaster for John McCain. Obama's numbers will continue to climb as long as the economy keeps losing jobs and McCain keeps shooting from the hip. Palin's satisfactory debate performance is likely to make news for one or two days, but it will be irrelevant in less than a week (veep debate analysis). For John McCain to have any chance at a significant comeback, Barack Obama will have to stumble.

3. Would Tina Fey really make a good Vice President? I don't know about you, but it's hard for me to distinguish the difference between the SNL version of Sarah Palin and the real Sarah Palin. Here's a video with a side-by-side comparison. See what I mean?

As so many have said already, a week is a lifetime in politics. But aside from some unforseen disaster, Barack Obama is likely to be elected as the 44th President of the United States. Thousands of people in Ohio and Virginia have already made their choice by voting early, and with each passing day, thousands more will do the same. One third of the electorate will vote by November 4th. 

The probability of McCain using another gimmick is about 90%. The chances of it working are close to zero. And if his strategy once again becomes attacking Obama, he runs the risk of digging the hole even deeper than it is now. If John McCain wins this election, it won't have anything to do with a new McCain campaign strategy/gimmick. Barack Obama holds the keys to victory for both himself and John McCain.

September Job Report: 159,000 Jobs Lost

From the Washington Post this morning:

"Employers slashed payrolls by 159,000 in September, the most in more than five years, a worrisome sign that the economy is hurtling toward a deep recession."

"The 159,000 jobs lost in September were the most since March 2003, when the labor market was still struggling to get back on its feet after being knocked down by the 2001 recession.

Job losses were widespread last month.

Manufacturers cut 51,000 jobs, construction companies axed 35,000 jobs, retailers got rid of 40,000 positions, business services shed 27,000 and financial services slashed 17,000 positions, with securities and investment firms accounting for 8,000 of those reductions. Leisure and hospitality companies also reduced employment by 17,000. That overwhelmed employment gains by the government, in education, health and elsewhere."

Total jobs lost in 2008:  760,000.

Sarah Palin Debate Flow Chart

This from Aden Nak.



h/t Taegan Goddard

Quote of the Day

Speaking about the McCain health care plan at tonight's Vice-Presidential debate, Senator Joe Biden nailed it:

"...now that's what I call the ultimate bridge to nowhere."

InstaPolls: Biden Wins Debate

The first two instaPolls about tonight's Vice-Presidential debate are out. Both give a clear win to Joe Biden over Sarah Palin.

CNN:  Biden 51%, Palin 36%, among all viewers of the debate.

CBS:  Biden, 46%, Palin 21%, draw 33%, among undecided voters.

Pre-Debate Highlights

from Tale of the Tape by Politico.

McCain Abandons Michigan

Jonathan Martin, writing for Politico.com today, reports that the McCain-Palin campaign is pulling out of Michigan. Martin says that the Republican presidential ticket will end television advertising, stop all direct mail and relocate its paid staff to more competitive states. A campaign event scheduled for next week in Plymouth MI has also been cancelled.

Once considered competitive by key Republican strategists, Michigan has moved steadily into safer and safer territory for the Obama-Biden team in recent weeks. Polls over the past two weeks have given the Democrats anywhere from a seven to ten point lead. Senator John Kerry won Michigan in 2004 by three points, 51% to 48%, over George W. Bush. Then Vice-President Al Gore bested Bush in Michigan in the 2000 election by five points, 51%-46% (third party candidates got 3% of Michiganders' votes in 2000).

The abandonment of a serious effort in Michigan further complicates an increasingly difficult challenge for the McCain campaign to garner the necessary 270 electoral votes for a victory on Nov. 4th. Now more than ever, both Florida and Ohio have become must-wins for the GOP ticket.

Quote of the Day

We rarely get our 'quote of the day' from a prominent Republican, much less from a high-ranking official of the Bush administration. However, these words - taken from a speech given earlier this week by Secretary of Defense Robert Gates - bear repeating:

"The power of our military's global reach has been an indispensable contributor to world peace - and must remain so. But not every outrage, every act of aggression, every crisis can or should elicit an American military response, and we should acknowledge such."

h/t: Andrew Sullivan

CNN/Time Battleground Polls: Obama Pulling Away

CNN/Time's Wednesday set of battleground polls was just released (and other than Minnesota they all were carried twice by President Bush) and they are all very good news for Barack Obama.

Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47%.
Minnesota: Obama 54%, McCain 43%.
Missouri: Obama 49%, McCain 48%.
Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 47%.
Virginia: Obama 53%, McCain 44%.

Florida is really an amazing result. Due to both the oddity of the primaries (Obama didn't campaign in the state and Florida is the state that essentially locked up the nomination for McCain) and the state's demographics, the Sunshine State was long considered a lean McCain state. Missouri is much in the same boat and McCain has consistently lead by 4-6 points there, but now Obama has taken a lead within the margin.

Minnesota has long been a blue state, but one that up until 2006 was trending pink. For that reason the Republicans held their convention there last month. Obama led there by a solid margin all summer, but after the GOP convention the state closed to a tie. It's very encouraging to see it go back to a solid Obama state.

Virginia and Nevada, while completely different states, have been very similar this year as both have continually been tight, toss-up states. Seeing Obama open up solid leads, particularly in Virginia, verifies the national data we've been seeing with Obama with a 4-7% national lead.

Remember that if Obama holds onto the Kerry states and the Iowa/New Mexico combo, which seems increasingly likely, he likely only has to take any of the following to win the election: Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, Ohio, or Florida. So volunteer in your nearest swing state today!

Breaking News: Obama Thunders Ahead in Key Battleground Sates

According to polling data released by Quinnipiac University just hours ago, Barack Obama has taken statistically significant leads over John McCain in three crucial battleground states. Especially noteworthy is the finding that Obama is at or above the fifty percent mark in each of these states.

Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 43%  

Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 42%

Pennsylvania: Obama 54%, McCain 39%

In all three states, the latest survey numbers show major gains for Obama since the previous polls by Quinnipiac. Internals of the polls suggest Obama's surge was fueled by economic concerns, his strong performance in the first presidential debate and the continuing collapse of McCain running mate, Sarah Palin.