North Carolina: Obama +2

For the first time this year, Barack Obama is leading John McCain in North Carolina. Polls previous to today's survey suggested the race as being dead even. 

Now, Rasmussen shows Obama taking a 49-47 lead in a state where George Bush won by more than 15% in 2004.  No Democrat has won North Carolina since Carter in 1976 , although Clinton lost the state by less than one point in 1992. 

View poll from Rasmussen.

There is a clear enthusiasm gap between those supporting Obama and those supporting McCain.

From the analysis:

"Eighty-one percent (81%) of Obama supporters are voting for their candidate with enthusiasm while 14% are voting primarily against McCain. Those figures have changed little over the past week.

Sixty-five percent (65%) of McCain voters are casting their votes with enthusiasm, up from 62% a week ago. Twenty-seven percent (27%) are voting primarily against Obama, down from 34%."

Rasmussen's analysis did not indicate whether or not the crisis on Wall Street had anything to do with Obama's surge; however, the poll was conducted on September 23rd, before McCain's announcement to suspend his campaign.

Poll: On With the Debate. This is it!

Nearly 90% of Americans want to see a debate in one form or another on Friday, that according to a new Survey USA poll released yesterday.  View full results here.

Survey USA surveyed 1000 adults immediately after John McCain suspended his campaign. The poll found:

• 50% of respondents said the debate should go on as scheduled.
  
• 36% said that the debate should be focused on the economy instead of foreign policy.
  
• 10% agreed with postponing the debate; and 4% were unsure.
  
• Just 14% believed that suspending the campaigns was the right decision.

Video: Think Bush Is The Worst? Think Again.

Viewer warning: Be sure you have something to catch the drool with because your mouth will be wide-open and paralyzed for the the next five minutes.

 

Quote of the Day

Congressman Barney Frank, on John Sidney McCain III's suspension of his campaign, via MSNBC:

"It's the longest Hail Mary pass in the history of either football or Marys."

A Noun, a Verb and a Gimmick

In an act of utter political desperation, driven by naked personal ambition, John McCain has suddenly 'suspended' his campaign, called on Barack Obama to do the same and announced he wants to delay the presidential debate scheduled for this Friday.  The public excuse he offers for these dramatic actions is to allow the two presidential candidates to go to Washington so they can focus on crafting a bailout plan for the financial industry.  

Oh really, Mr. McCain? It has nothing to do with a raft of new polls in recent days showing that your campaign is coming apart at the seams? Nothing to do with how tired, confused and erratic you've looked and sounded on the campaign trail lately? Nothing to do with the burgeoning scandals plaguing your campaign? Nothing to do with the fact that you can't allow your running-mate out of the house without adult supervision? Really?

Or is it, Mr. McCain, that you just can't do more than one thing at a time,? I've got a news flash for you: Presidents often have to juggle multiple problems simultaneously...  and sometimes several very serious problems at that. Lincoln ran a presidential campaign (1864) in the middle of the Civil War. FDR ran for President twice (1932 and 1936) in the midst of the Great Depression and once (1944) in the middle of World War II. What's your problem, Mr. McCain? Are you just not up to the job? 

No, Mr. McCain, this won't do. Your suggestion just won't wash. Be a man and admit the truth. This ploy is just one more gimmick - like the 'drill here, drill now' scheme, the faux concern about Hurricane Ike during the RNC, the selection of a totally unqualified and unexpected VP candidate and the reckless call to fire the head of the SEC as a fix for the Wall Street meltdown. All of them were gimmicks and all were designed with only one goal in mind: to get you elected President. Just raw, cynical political ambition - nothing more.

Barack Obama just held a press conference. He told us the truth while looking and sounding very presidential in the process. He knows this campaign must continue. He's willing to do what it takes to fix the mess on Wall Street while protecting taxpayers' interests, but he is unwilling to suspend the most important election campaign in a generation. Above all, he knows that we deserve presidential candidates who can manage a crisis and present their views to the American people at the same time. It's called leadership.

Enough with the gimmicks, John McCain!

Poll Perspective

As the stream of political polls turns into a veritable flood between now and election day, it's probably a good idea to take a deep breath and try to keep a little perspective on what these surveys are actually telling us.

Perhaps the most important thing to keep in mind is that, although national polls are extremely useful in giving us a good sense of how the race is going, we choose our President through the electoral college, not by direct popular vote. It's an obvious point, I know, but one that is often ignored by the chattering classes on network and cable television - and even by those in the print media.  The state-by-state polls are what really matter. 

Secondly, the margins of error (MOEs) in any poll - national or state - are very important. These MOEs are typically in the range of plus or minus 3 to 5 percentage points. Thus, real voter sentiment can vary as much as six to ten points from what the raw poll numbers indicate. So far, we've seen only few national polls in the presidential race which give one candidate or the other a lead outside the margin of error.  The Washington Post/ABC News poll, released today and discussed in detail in the blog below, is a notable exception. Obama's nine point lead is well beyond that survey's three point (plus or minus) margin of error.

Finally, it is helpful to remember how many real voters these national poll numbers represent. Assuming that the turn-out in this year's election is at least as high as four years ago, each percentage point equates to roughly 1.3 million voters. So, a nine point lead in a national survey, such as we see in today's Washington Post/ABC News poll, equals over eleven million voters. No small potatoes, that.

National Poll: Obama By 9

A new Washington Post/ABC News Poll released this morning shows Barack Obama surging past John McCain to a 52-43 point lead nationally.  McCain's convention bounce gave him a two point lead two weeks ago, but that lead has now been erased as voters fear a worsening economy and the ongoing catastrophe on Wall Street.  

Highlights from the poll. View full polling data (pdf)

Obama leads 52-39 on the economy

Independents prefer Obama by 21 points on issues related to the economy

9% rate the economy as "good" or "excellent"


14% of voters believe the nation is heading in the right direction  (ties record low in 1973)


60% are worried about their own family finances


43% of independent women view Palin favorably compared to 65% last month (-22%)


62% of Obama supporters are "very enthusiastic" compared to just 34% for John McCain who feel the same way about his candidacy.

Rocky Mountain Blue

One good thing about election day getting closer is the glut of polls being released, particular on the state level. One such example is Colorado and the news in very good. In the Centennial State Barack Obama and Mark Udall are pulling away from John Sidney McCain III and Bob “Oil Man” Schaffer.

Three polls in the last week have come out of Colorado all of which show an Obama lead ranging from 4% to 10%. While the truth is likely somewhere in between (the PPP poll that has Obama up 7% sounds about right), the fact is that Obama is starting to open up a narrow, but substantial leads in the crucial state. Two polls were also released in the Senate race (an open seat being vacated by perpetually vulnerable Wayne Allard) between Congressman Mark Udall and former Congressman and "Oil Man" Bob Schaffer. Both polls show Udall with a comfortable lead of 48-40%. Colorado has been tight all year. Polls have mostly shown Udall with a 2-4% lead and have indicated that the Presidential race is more or less a dead heat. The Centennial State is typically Republican in national elections.  John Kerry is the only Democratic Presidential nominee to exceed 45.3% of the vote there since 1964. However, Colorado has trended blue the last couple cycles with Democrats taking over the Governorship, a Senate seat and a seat in Congress.  It was also the site of the Democratic Convention last month.

Colorado and its nine electoral votes is key to this Presidential election and completely necessary to the Democrats’ chances of attaining a filibuster proof majority in the Senate. As of right now, an Obama win in Colorado would put John McCain in an extremely tough position in the electoral college. McCain would not only have to sweep the remaining swing states that Bush won in 2004 (Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida), but he would also need to win either Michigan or Pennsylvania (or at least one of the much less likely Wisconsin and Minnesota duo) just to have a chance to get to 270 electoral votes.

Help turn Colorado blue by helping Barack Obama and Mark Udall!

CNN's Campbell Brown to McCain Campaign: Free Sarah Now!

Quote of the Day

"The failed economic policies and the same corrupt culture that led us into this mess will not help get us out of it. We need to get to work immediately on reforming the broken government -- and the broken politics -- that allowed this crisis to happen in the first place."

-- Senator Barack Obama, in a message sent to his supporters this evening

The Road to No Bridge, Nowhere....

Breaking News:Latest Poll Shows Lunsford Surge in KY Senate Race

According to Lexington (KY) television station Lex18, Democrat Bruce Lunsford, has moved into a statistical tie with incumbent Republican Mitch McConnell in his race for the US Senate. The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA, was released earlier this morning and shows McConnell with a 49%-46% lead, well within the poll's 3.9% margin of error. The survey was taken Sept. 21-22.

These results represent a major gain for the Bluegrass Democrat. In a poll by the same organization taken just six weeks ago, McConnell led 52% to Lunsford's 40%. Internals of the current poll suggest strongly that economic concerns have fueled Lunsford's dramatic closing of the gap with McConnell. Some 60% of Kentucky voters now cite the economy as the number one issue. Among those listing the economy as most important to them, McConnell has plummeted from a six-point advantage six weeks ago to a nine-point deficit today. 

Women are another major factor in Lunsford's leap. Six weeks ago, McConnell held an eleven point lead among female voters, but Lunsford has now pulled even with him among women. Lunsford's gain was also registered in every geographic section of Kentucky. This poll has got to be putting smiles on lots of Democratic faces in Kentucky and at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee today.

Democratic Senate Campaign Committee Gives KY's Lunsford A Big Boost

CQ Politics is reporting today that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has given the largest share of its state party outlays for the month of August to the Kentucky Democratic Party. Democrat Bruce Lunsford is mounting a fierce campaign to unseat incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell in the Bluegrass State. CQ says:

"The DSCC’s big August outlays also included $3.1 million in transfer payments to state Democratic Party committees to help them build their get-out-the-vote efforts ahead of the Nov. 4 elections. The largest chunk of these funds ($1 million) went to the Kentucky Democratic Party, which is helping Democratic businessman Bruce Lunsford... in his campaign against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell." 

This infusion of cash into the Kentucky race by the national Democratic Party's most important funding organization for Senate campaigns suggests that the contest may be closer than widely thought. Are there new internal polls? Is there more fall-out to come from McConnell's ties to Big Oil and corporate lobbyists? Whatever the answer, you can bet the DSCC isn't investing that kind of money unless it has good reason to believe that Lunsford can upset McConnell and add yet another seat to its majority in the next Senate.

Video: Obama Takes Lead in Florida. Mason-Dixon

Fresh Off the Press: Quinnipiac Battleground Polls

Quinnipiac has just released polling data from four battleground states: Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin. The entire 26 page press release includes more analysis and internals and can be found on the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute's home page.

Some analysis from the poll.

"By 19 – 24 point margins, voters in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin say Democrat Barack Obama, not Republican John McCain, is the candidate of change, helping lift Sen. Obama into the lead in these battleground states, according to four simultaneous Quinnipiac University polls of likely voters in these battleground states, conducted in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com and released today."

COLORADO: Obama 49 – McCain 45

"Obama leads 55 – 40 percent among Colorado women likely voters, while men back McCain 49 – 42 percent. White voters back McCain 51 – 44 percent as Hispanic voters go with Obama 68 – 26 percent. Obama and McCain are tied 48 – 48 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old, while voters 35 to 54 back Obama 52 – 42 percent. Voters over 55 go 47 percent with McCain and 46 percent with Obama.

Obama will bring change, 46 percent of voters say, while 22 percent say McCain will bring change and 26 percent say neither candidate will bring change.

But by a 49 – 42 percent margin, voters would rather see Biden as President. Women pick Biden 52 – 37 percent while men go 46 percent to Palin and 45 percent Biden.

In the U.S. Senate race, U.S. Rep. Mark Udall, the Democrat, leads Republican Robert Schaffer 48 – 40 percent, compared to a 44 – 44 percent tie July 24."

MICHIGAN: Obama 48 - McCain 44

"Michigan women voters back Obama 52 – 40 percent, while men back McCain 49 – 44 percent. White voters back McCain 51 – 41 percent, as black voters support Obama 93 – 5 percent. The Democrat leads 51 – 48 percent among voters 18 to 34, and gets 47 percent of voters 35 to 54 to McCain’s 45 percent. Voters over 55 back Obama 49 – 41 percent.

Obama rather than McCain is the candidate of change, voters say 43 – 21 percent.
Palin’s selection is a good choice, voters say 58 – 32 percent, while these same voters say 51 – 30 percent that Biden is a good choice.

By a 47 – 42 percent margin, voters would rather see Biden as President. Women back Biden 50 – 38 percent while men go 47 percent for Palin and 45 percent for Biden.

The economy is the most important issue, 58 percent of Michigan voters say, and Obama understands it better, voters say 50 – 38 percent. McCain understands foreign policy better, voters say 64 – 26 percent.  

'Sen. Obama’s lead in Michigan is built upon two key changes since the last Quinnipiac University poll: He has consolidated the Democratic base to the same degree that Sen. McCain has coalesced the Republican vote, and his lead among those who see the economy as the most important issue has almost doubled, from 50 – 39 percent to 55 – 35 percent,' Brown said."

MINNESOTA: Obama 47 - McCain 45

"Obama leads McCain 49 – 43 percent with women, while men go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama. White voters go with McCain 48 – 44 percent. Voters 18 to 34 years go 51 – 43 percent for Obama. Voters 35 to 54 go 51 – 43 percent for McCain, with the Democrat up 50 – 40 percent among voters over 55.  

Obama rather than McCain is the candidate of change, voters say 43 – 24 percent.
Palin is a good choice, voters say 56 – 35 percent and Biden is a good choice, these voters say 52 – 31 percent. They would rather see Biden step up as President, voters say 50 – 41 percent, including women 49 – 39 percent and men 50 – 43 percent.

The economy is the biggest issue, 55 percent of voters say. Voters tie 45 – 45 percent on who better understands the economy, but say 66 – 24 percent that McCain understands foreign policy better.

In the Minnesota U.S. Senate race, Republican incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman tops Democrat Al Franken 49 – 42 percent, compared to 53 – 38 percent July 24.

'Sen. John McCain is within striking distance in Minnesota for two reasons: Republicans held their convention in the state and the selection of Gov. Sarah Palin brought a new wave of independent women to the GOP ticket, offsetting a big swing by independent men to Obama,' said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

'Al Franken now trails Sen. Norman Coleman by seven points, down from 15, mainly because Democratic support for Coleman has dropped eight points from 19 points in the last poll.'"

WISCONSIN: Obama 49 - McCain 42

Wisconsin women voters back Obama 53 – 37 percent while men back McCain 48 – 45 percent. Obama leads 55 – 38 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 47 – 44 percent among voters 35 to 54 years old and 49 – 43 percent among voters over 55.

Obama rather than McCain is the candidate of change, voters say 45 – 22 percent.

Palin is a good choice, voters say 57 – 33 percent and Biden is a good choice, voters say 47 – 33 percent. Voters prefer Biden as President 46 – 42 percent. Women prefer Biden 47 – 37 percent while men back Palin by a narrow 46 – 44 percent.

The economy is the biggest issue, 51 percent say, and Obama understands it better, voters say 47 – 40 percent. McCain understands foreign policy better, voters say 65 – 23 percent.