Electoral Projection: Tightening the Vice

John McCain hasn't found the game changer he's been looking for. For McCain, game changers probably don't exist unless you count Sarah Palin. One could argue that she changed the course of McCain's campaign from the very beginning. McCain's sinking ship has been on the wrong course from the very moment he chose Palin as his running mate. When all is said and done, historians might look at the Palin pick as one of those rare moments when the veep pick actually did matter.

Over the last few weeks, we've witnessed very little change in polling. What small gains there may have been for John McCain have now evaporated (see dead cat bounce). Regular national polls and daily trackers are all now starting to come together for the first time. All of them have the race close to or at double digits. State polling continues to favor Obama as well. 

From our last projection, John McCain loses 14 electoral votes while Barack Obama's score remains unchanged. Polls in North Dakota and Indiana put the race at a dead heat. As a result, both states shift from leans McCain to tossup this week. Voters in North Dakota have been surveyed just three times in October. Obama has led in two of those polls while one other shows the race a tie. Polls back home in Indiana show a close race although Obama has led in three of the last four. 

Although we're not adding any states to Obama's total, he has strengthened his lead in these states:  New Mexico, Minnesota and Maine. As a result, these states move from leans Obama to solid Obama.  We now show Obama with a solid lead in all of the Kerry/Gore states (264 electoral votes).

McCain's sole route to 270 now runs through Pennsylvania. For him to win there, it will take even more than a game changer. Something along the lines of divine order may be McCain's only hope. The latest polls in the Keystone state show Obama gripping a double digit lead.

Electoral Update - Running Up the Score

Leading up to the third and final presidential debate on Wednesday, Barack Obama was outdistancing John McCain by margins wide enough to make Bill Clinton jealous. The headlines lately haven't had as much to do with Obama winning  as they have how much he would win by.

After a barrage of polls over the past month, yesterday was one of the quietest state polling days of the year. Daily tracking polls have indicated a small shift toward McCain but nothing significant enough to change momentum. While everyone anticipates the results of post-debate polling, nothing lately has given us reason to make any changes from our projection on Tuesday. Obama still leads John McCain 338-174.  Two states, North Carolina (15) and Missouri (11), account for 26 tossups.

By a 2:1 margin, voters thought Obama won the last debate. However, the possibility of John McCain picking up one to two points isn't out of the question. Obama's 8-10 point lead for several days may have included a few disgruntled Republicans who were biting their tongues. They may now feel as if McCain rescued them by what they heard during McCain's exercise in anger management. Regardless, by Tuesday of next week, nobody will remember the debate or Sam the Handyman (aka Joe the Plummer).

Barack Obama's newest strategy to run up the score is bad news for John McCain and other vulnerable Republicans down the ticket. McCain doesn't have the money to adequately defend himself in Indiana, Missouri, Georgia, West Virginia, North Carolina, Virginia and Nevada while at the same time run an effective campaign in Florida and Ohio. Obama can compete anywhere he pleases and then some. Already today, we're learning that John McCain is behind in key counties across Ohio, Missouri, Pennsylvania and Virginia. As we've said before, Virginia is McCain's biggest nightmare.

This is beginning to sound like a broken record, but we'll say it again. John McCain has to win both Florida and Ohio. Even then, both states only get him a ticket to 11 p.m. on election night. Anything other than an all in move in Ohio and Florida is sure to end his chances. This has been and always will be his most essential priority for his campaign. Today, John McCain is campaigning Miami and Melbourne, Florida. Obama is in Roanoke, Virginia.

By the time we make our next projection (Tuesday), we may have an answer as to whether or not Colin Powell is going to endorse Barack Obama or not. He's appearing on Meet the Press on Sunday. We will also have a good idea whether or not McCain made up any ground from his debate performance. For now, we're just 18 days away from the CHANGE we need.

Electoral Update - McCain 100% Negative 100% Desperate

Election Day can't come soon enough for Democrats, and Republicans are wishing they had more time. 

Despite the catastrophic downturn in the American economy, John McCain isn't talking about it. Instead, his campaign has turned nearly 100% negative. Barack Obama and Joe Biden on the other hand have kept their focus on the economy. Speaking at a rally in Chillicothe, Ohio just moments ago, Obama declared:

“This is not a time for ideology–- it’s a time for common sense and a politics of pragmatism…. I believe that we can steer ourselves out of this crisis because I believe in this country.” While Obama continues addressing the concerns of the nation, McCain keeps playing a guilt by association game of politics. 

One week ago we asked whether or not the slow motion collapse of John McCain's campaign would accelerate, slow down or stop. As you can tell from the electoral map, nothing has improved for John McCain. In fact, in this week's electoral projection Ohio shifts from tossup to leans Obama. Five of the last six polls show Obama leading in Ohio including the last three consecutive. With Ohio's 20 electoral votes now in the Obama column, he now leads John McCain 353 - 174. The  lone tossup state in this week's projection is Missouri.

The decision to leave North Carolina in the Obama column this week was a tough one. Some projections have put the Tar Heel state back into the tossup column because of a Survey USA poll released this week. CNN also shows the race as tied; however, three polls in the last week show Obama leading. Two of them have Obama leading by five or six points. We will move North Carolina to tossup status if other polls show McCain leading. If McCain is indeed bouncing back in North Carolina, the question to be answered is why.

Obama's Ceiling

Obama is approaching his electoral ceiling, which we put at 365  electoral votes (add Missouri plus one EC vote from Nebraska).  To get beyond the 365 mark, Obama will have to steal Indiana and Georgia, no easy task. If the rapid decline in McCain's national numbers extends into next week, Indiana very well could fall back into the tossup column too. McCain's double digit margins are gone in Georgia and they continue to fall. Some are already talking about an Obama upset in Georgia because of an expected surge in African-American voters. 

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Nate Silver examines both candidate's favorable and unfavorable ratings since the Ayers attacks began. His analysis:

OBAMA

Pollster             Favorable      Unfavorable
Rasmussen     10/3     57              42
Rasmussen     10/8     56 (-1)         42 (n/c)

Pollster             Favorable      Unfavorable
Research 2K   10/3     59              32
Research 2K   10/8     57 (-2)         33 (+1)

Pollster             Favorable      Unfavorable
Hotline       10/3     58              36
Hotline       10/8     56 (-2)         39 (+3)

Pollster             Favorable     Unfavorable
Average       10/3     58.0            36.7
Average       10/8     56.3 (-1.7)     38.0 (+1.3)

MCCAIN

Pollster             Favorable   Unfavorable
Rasmussen     10/3     52          45
Rasmussen     10/8     52 (n/c)    46 (+1)

Pollster             Favorable   Unfavorable
Research 2K   10/3     41          45
Research 2K   10/8     44 (+3)     49 (+4)

Pollster             Favorable   Unfavorable
Hotline       10/3     53          40
Hotline       10/8     53 (n/c)    41 (+1)

Pollster             Favorable      Unfavorable
Average       10/3     48.7            43.3
Average       10/8     49.7 (+1.0)     45.3 (+2.0)

Obama's unfavorable number has ticked up a point or so, but so has McCain's. The strategy to preempt the Ayers attack by airing the Keating ads may have paid off. It's unlikely that John McCain will get anywhere without some kind of proof that Ayers or Rezko somehow influenced Obama's political career. While the attacks have rallied a few radicals (see video one and two) who hate Obama, McCain could alienate himself from moderates and independents with unsubstantiated claims.

The verdict is still out on McCain's strategy to go 100% negative. Without a smoking gun as it relates to Ayers, the best John McCain can hope for is to remain competitive in places like NC, OH, MO, and NV. A worse scenario is the one laid out above where he begins losing ground in Indiana and Georgia. It is worth mentioning that McCain gained five points in Indiana in the latest Rasmussen poll.

Virginia and Florida are McCain's nightmares right now. Obama has led in the last four consecutive polls in Virginia by an average of eight points. It's been 44 years since a Democrat carried Virginia. Florida is also becoming an increasing problem for McCain as Obama has now led in every poll this month including a Strategic Vision poll released yesterday which puts him ahead by eight.

Our next update will be on Tuesday when we will examine these questions.

1. Will McCain's negative campaign work or will it backfire? Virginia and Florida haven't budged. 

2. Will polling in North Carolina show a trend back toward John McCain?

3. How long will the negative campaign go on? Will members of his own party begin calling him out for crossing the line?

Dangerous Campaign

There's a difference between a negative campaign and a dangerous one. McCain and Palin are inciting hatred at their rallies by suggesting that Obama has associated himself with terrorists. Bob Cesca writes:

"I think we can conclude that the McCain-Palin ticket is inciting a violent attack on Senator Obama and his family. Here's the reasoning: they say Senator Obama hangs around with terrorists. Therefore he supports terrorists. We're fighting a war against terrorism. So let's fight a war on that one.

I don't think we've ever seen this level of potentially violent form of campaigning in our lifetime, and someone needs to seriously call out McCain on this one."

"Someone needs to step up to McCain -- and especially Palin -- and put a stop to this before someone gets hurt. I can't be more serious about this. McCain and Palin are treading on dangerous ground here."

Electoral Update - Staging the Fat Lady

Roger Simon of Politico says this morning that the outlook for McCain is "bleak." Howard Wolfson is calling the McCain campaign a "casualty." Jay Cost of Real Clear Politics says McCain is in a "terrible spot." Peter Wehner labels the challenge ahead as a "daunting task." And Joe Klein compares McCain's campaign to "throwing crap against a wall."

So, forgive me if it takes incredible restraint to keep from saying, "It's over. John McCain is toast."

I know what you're thinking already!

Yes, yes.. it's important to remember that we have nearly a month left until Election Day. However, it's a steep climb and a far stretch for John McCain to win, and here's why.

As we've mentioned before several times, John Kerry's 2004 states represent 252 electoral votes. It's important to know that Barack Obama is performing very well in every one of those states. He's solidified his position in PA, MI, WI, NH and MN appears to be shaping up too. He's also performing very well in Iowa (7) and New Mexico (5), two states that Bush won in 2004.

252 (Kerry States) +  12 (IA/NM) = 264

That leaves Obama needing just six electoral votes to get to the magic 270. Just six.  That's it. And just where can Obama find six electoral votes? There are many possibilities.

Nevada (5) where Obama has led in the last three consecutive polls. For that reason, we're moving Nevada from tossup to leans Obama.

Colorado (9) where Obama leads by an average of five points over the last several polls. Rasmussen/Fox News, just today, has Obama leading by six points.

In Virginia (13), polls yesterday and today show Obama winning by large margins.

More than 600,000 new voters have been registered in North Carolina (15) in 2008. Maybe that's part of the reason why polls lately have not only shown Barack Obama leading but also Kay Hagan.  We're moving North Carolina from the tossup list to the leans Obama column.

Missouri (11) had been polling in John McCain's favor all year.  Late polls now show Barack Obama leading here; however, there are not enough recent polls for us to know where the race stands. Don't be surprised if the Show-Me state reveals more polling favoring Obama this week.

Florida (27) and Ohio (20) are once again big trophies.  As we said last week, John McCain absolutely must win both to have any chance of becoming the nation's next president. McCain who once was leading in both states is now behind. That is especially clear in Florida where Obama appears to be in control. Fox News/Rasmussen's poll from today shows Obama winning by 7, and Quinnipiac less than a week ago had Obama winning by 8. 

Ohio (20) is not as clear to us not only because recent polls have gone back and forth but also because we are not clear about new voter registration numbers. RCP's Ohio average favors Obama by 3.5 points. As we've promised, Ohio will remain in the tossup until a clear leader emerges.

These states have a combined 100 electoral votes, and Obama needs just six of them.  John McCain needs virtually every one from all seven states. While it is quite possible for McCain to win a few of these states, the probability of him winning every one (or even all but one) is quite remote. 

He will need a real game changer..an October surprise..if he's to have any shot at all. It's no exaggeration to say that tonight's debate is a do-or-die situation for McCain.

Possible? It certainly is. In the meantime, someone should be telling the fat lady to clear her throat. She's the next act to perform.

Here are some interesting facts about Ohio from the 2004 election.

- John Kerry lost Ohio by 181,601 votes (-2.1%).

- Hamilton County, Cincinnati, favored George Bush (222,616) over John Kerry (199,679). -5.41%

- One in five voters in 2004 voted in either Franklin or Cuyahoga counties. Kerry won both.

- Counties with the largest numbers of voters.

2004

County	Kerry	%	Bush	%
1. Cuyahoga	448,503	66.57%	221,600	32.89%
2. Franklin	285,801	54.35%	237,253	45.12%
3. Hamilton	199,679	47.09%	222,616	52.50%
4. Montgomery	142,997	50.60%	138,371	48.97%
5. Summit	156,587	56.67%	118,558	42.91%
6. Lucas	132,715	60.21%	87,160	39.54%
7. Stark	95,337	50.59%	92,215	48.93%
8. Butler	56,243	33.71%	109,872	65.86%
9. Lorain	78,970	56.11%	61,203	43.49%
10. Mahoning	83,194	62.60%	48,761	36.69%
11. Lake	59,049	48.47%	62,193	51.05%
12. Trumbull	66,673	61.65%	40,977	37.89%

We will be publishing two updates per week between now and Election Day, a mid-week update on Tuesday and a more thorough analysis every Friday.

Coming Tomorrow: Electoral Update

Beginning tomorrow, ElectBlue will post Electoral Updates twice every week for the remainder of the election season. Besides our regular Friday update, we will also be providing a Tuesday projection as well.

Dick Morris Has Lost It

Or maybe he never had it to begin with.

Two weeks ago, his electoral projection showed Iowa as a tossup. Today (click here for Morris map), it shows Tennessee and Arizona as tossups. Trend estimates show a 20 point lead for McCain in Tennessee and a 22 point lead in Arizona.

This coming from the same guy who wrote Condi vs. Hillary. I'm not surprised.

Electoral Update - McCain's Slow Motion Implosion

Last week, John McCain was on the brink of disaster. Today, his campaign is a disaster.

With just 31 days left until Election Day, John McCain's campaign is collapsing. For two weeks, several national polls have shown a growing momentum for Barack Obama. Swing state polling however had been slow to show the same effect..until now.

McCain's bread and butter (Florida and Ohio) are now toast. The collapse is especially visible in Florida where seven polling organizations in the last week have conducted surveys.  Six of the seven show Obama leading by three to seven points. For the first time since our first projection, Florida now leans Obama. As for Ohio, Obama is gaining there too; however, the contest in the Buckeye state remains very close. As promised, we intend to keep Ohio in the tossup column until a clear leader emerges.

We also made the same promise about Virginia. Virginia (13) has remained in the tossup column for the whole year except for the week directly after the RNC when we projected McCain to be leading. Since our last projection, three of five polls show Obama passing McCain with numbers at or above the 50% mark. ARG, who shows a three point edge for McCain, has often been erratic in 2008 (see RCP's response to Nate Silver), and Mason-Dixon also found McCain to be leading in their last poll on 9/22. But given what we know about Obama's surge in national averages and polling in neighboring North Carolina (15), we project Virginia to be leaning slightly for Obama.

Florida (27) + Ohio (20) = 47

Florida and Ohio are absolutely necessary for John McCain to win. Even with those states, getting to 270 will be difficult given what we know about Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, and McCain's busted hope on Michigan. As my good friend and fellow blogger Stephen Moody said earlier:

"The abandonment of a serious effort in Michigan further complicates an increasingly difficult challenge for the McCain campaign to garner the necessary 270 electoral votes for a victory on Nov. 4th. Now more than ever, both Florida and Ohio have become must-wins for the GOP ticket."

Obama's momentum is broad and deep and is evident in three of the categories we use for our projection.

1. States that previously were leaning Obama have now moved to solid Obama (PA, MI, NJ, NM, OR).
   
2. Two states previously listed as tossup have now moved to lean Obama (VA, FL).
   
3. Two states that were previously leaning McCain are now tossup (MO, NV).

It's safe to say that this is Barack Obama's high water mark for the year so far. For eleven weeks Obama's electoral advantage has remained flat, primarily because of Florida and Ohio. Those two nuts haven't been easy for Obama to crack. The recent crash on Wall Street, Palin's wobbly interview, Obama's debate win, and McCain's gimmickery all have dragged the Republican ticket down. John McCain, just from last week alone, has lost 43 electoral votes. 

Questions to consider between now and next week:

1. Is Barack Obama's lead sustainable? 

Much has been made of the buyer's remorse theory this year. While voter's may have been weary of Barack Obama months ago, they don't appear to be now. Charges that he may be inexperienced or an amateur have been undermined by McCain's real amateur running mate. Obama's first debate performance also reassured independent voters of his ability to handle foreign affairs.  It appears that for the first time many voters are becoming comfortable with the idea of a President Obama.

2. Will the slow motion collapse of John McCain's campaign accelerate, slow down, or stop? 

The electoral ceiling for Barack Obama is somewhere between 50 and 60 votes higher than our current projection estimate. The last three weeks have been a complete disaster for John McCain. Obama's numbers will continue to climb as long as the economy keeps losing jobs and McCain keeps shooting from the hip. Palin's satisfactory debate performance is likely to make news for one or two days, but it will be irrelevant in less than a week (veep debate analysis). For John McCain to have any chance at a significant comeback, Barack Obama will have to stumble.

3. Would Tina Fey really make a good Vice President? I don't know about you, but it's hard for me to distinguish the difference between the SNL version of Sarah Palin and the real Sarah Palin. Here's a video with a side-by-side comparison. See what I mean?

As so many have said already, a week is a lifetime in politics. But aside from some unforseen disaster, Barack Obama is likely to be elected as the 44th President of the United States. Thousands of people in Ohio and Virginia have already made their choice by voting early, and with each passing day, thousands more will do the same. One third of the electorate will vote by November 4th. 

The probability of McCain using another gimmick is about 90%. The chances of it working are close to zero. And if his strategy once again becomes attacking Obama, he runs the risk of digging the hole even deeper than it is now. If John McCain wins this election, it won't have anything to do with a new McCain campaign strategy/gimmick. Barack Obama holds the keys to victory for both himself and John McCain.

Electoral Update - McCain On the Brink of Disaster

John McCain's surge is over. In fact, the opposite effect is taking place.  For the second straight week, John McCain has lost electoral ground. Last week, we moved Virginia from the McCain column to tossup, and this week we're doing the same for North Carolina. Obama's numbers have held very steady for 10 weeks straight, and he now leads John McCain 273-217.  Besides North Carolina (15), Ohio (20) and Virginia (13) are also too close to call. Ohio and Virginia, as promised, will remain as tossups until one candidate gains a clear advantage.

George Bush won North Carolina by more than 12 points in 2000 and 2004, despite John Edwards running as veep on the Democratic ticket. Regardless of this year's outcome, a double-digit win here by either candidate is unlikely. 

It's hard to tell who's coattailing who, but Barack Obama and Kay Hagan both lead their Republican opponents in the latest Rasmussen polling. Both candidates will put a lot of effort into the triangle region and the northeast area of the state where Democrats generally fair well. Read today's analysis of Wake County by PPP.

But Obama will need to do more than just fair well to win.  He will need to best Kerry's performance in 2004 in Mecklenburg/Charlotte (Kerry 52% Bush 48%) and Chatham County where John Kerry beat George Bush by only 5 votes (12,897 - 12,892). While polls show the race as a dead heat, a strong turnout on election day for Democrats could be the leading headline on November 5th.

 

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Last week's electoral projection made mention of a possible John McCain surprise.

"The last time McCain needed a jolt to his campaign, he shocked everyone with Palin. If at some point, the campaign begins to slip away, he may just pull another fast one."

And here we have it. McCain's call to suspend his campaign has everyone wondering whether or not he will attend tonight's debate. In light of  gridlock on bailout, McCain's Hail-Mary, and next Thursday's vice presidential debate, we'll ask a some related questions today and then answer them in next Friday's projection.

1. Will John McCain's appearance (or no-show) in Oxford tonight be a moment of demise or reinvigoration for his campaign?

2. The expectations to perform well are high for Barack Obama. Can he live up to them in the debate.

3. Many people are hoping that a deal on the bailout will be made by Sunday. Will Republicans be able to catch McCain's Hail-Mary pass? Will poll numbers next week show confidence in McCain's role in whatever decisions are made, or will voters see his decisions this week as razzle dazzle, as Chris Matthews put it. Will McCain alienate himself from the conservative base?

4. For more than three weeks, the nation has been captivated by moose hunting mama, Sarah Palin. The expectations haven't been much lower than they are for Palin going into next week's vice presidential debate. Will the viewing audience be left with the impression that Biden was too tough on her? Will the debate even matter?

As always, a week is a lifetime in presidential politics. Just last week, we were talking about how the political landscape was shaping up to look like 2000 and 2004.  This week, when you consider NC and VA as both being tossups, that doesn't seem at all to be the case. 

With just 38 days left until election day, John McCain is on the brink of disaster. Any further setbacks are sure to cost him in places like Ohio, Nevada, and Florida. For him, next week could be the most important week of his political life. For Obama, the opportunity to round another base is at hand, and sliding into home plate on November 4th is shaping up to be more possible now than ever. 

Electoral Update - Obama Catches Momentum

If your head hurts from analyzing so many polls over the past week, you're not alone. By our count there have been 99 polls released since last Friday.  American Research Group, in the last two days, has released 30 of their own including perhaps the only D.C. poll we'll ever see between now and election day (Obama 82 McCain 13). Why bother, right?

In nine weeks, we've noticed essentially no movement up or down for Obama, almost as if there's an unbreakable ceiling around the 268-273 mark. Blame Florida which has been leaning McCain since the beginning of August. Obama's also had a tough time gaining momentum in Ohio. With Ohio, Florida, and a handful of traditionally red states now leaning toward McCain, it's easy to see why the Arizona Senator has surged over the last few weeks.

Here's a look at the electoral movement over the past seven days. 

Obama 273 (+5)

• Gain:  New Mexico (5) where the last four polls show Obama with significant leads, two of which show a 7 point margin.

McCain 232 (-8)

• Gain:  Nevada (5) where he's led in every poll since the end of the Republican convention.
  
• Loss:  McCain loses Virginia (13) to tossup.

In recent days, national polling has revealed a significant shift back in favor of Barack Obama. This comes as no surprise given the this week's bad news on Wallstreet. However, the shift in state-to-state polling shows less movement. This may be because several of the state polls were conducted during or prior to the market meltdown. For example, the Big 10 Battleground Pennsylvania poll showing the race as tied, was conducted 9/14 - 9/17. It's not possible to know how many voters were sampled prior to the bad market news.

Last week, we asked three important questions, two of which were related to Palin's impact.

1.  Can John McCain sustain his current numbers?

At this point, it appears the answer is no.  And the reasons why are plenty.  The slipping economy, convention bounce falls back to earth, Palin's newness wearing off, regulation/deregulation flip-flops, and more McCain gaffes.  Is McCain in big trouble? As McCain does damage control over the weekend, he'll also try to regain momentum. But what strategies does he have left?  The negative ads he ran just days ago seem to have backfired, so that option may be off the table. Running on the issues will be tough given the Republican brand. Palin's shiny new appeal is wearing off, not to mention he can't let her speak for fear of her assuming she's at the top of the ticket! Don't be surprised if McCain tries to shift the focus to foreign policy and Iraq again.

2. Can Obama hang on to the Kerry states?

While there has been plenty of good news lately to rejoice about in the Obama camp, they have also noticed some slippage in places where losing would be disastrous.  Moderate leads in PA, MI, MN, and WI have slipped to razor thin margins (1-3 points) according to a couple of recent polls.  Two polls in PA show the race tied and one in MN reveals similar results. It will be interesting to see if state polling catches up to the latest round of national polls.

3.  Is there a page two of the Palin story?

The love affair is over, and Palin's favorable numbers have fallen like a rock. With each passing day, there's another news story about Palin.  And the news is not good [see more]. Page 3? Page 4? The number gurus at Fivethirtyeight.com answer this question thoroughly.

McCain's other problem is that Sarah Palin may no longer be an asset to the ticket; in fact, she may be a liability. Averaging the candidates' favorability scores across four recent polls -- as one should always try and do when looking at favorability numbers since they can vary greatly depending on question wording -- Palin now has the worst net scores among the four principals in the race:


Palin's average favorability score is now a +7 -- about 10 points behind Joe Biden's numbers. Perhaps more importantly, these numbers are 10-15 points behind where Palin's numbers were just a week or so ago. If voters come in not knowing very much about a candidate -- and the more they see of the candidate, the less they like of the candidate -- this is a major concern.

Battleground States

Several projection models around the country this week show large numbers of tossup states. Our model is based on an analysis of several polls as opposed to a knee-jerk reaction to just one or two. For example, we've decided to keep Minnesota in the Obama column for the moment because of national movement favoring him. Even more, McCain has never led in Minnesota. New Hampshire follows the same pattern where just two polls have been conducted since the close of the RNC. One recent poll shows McCain leading by three; however, that is his first lead in NH since May. If trends develop, we'll make adjustments.

What's happening in Pennyslvania?

Two polls in PA since last week show the race as dead even: Rasmussen and Big 10 Battleground. This flies in the face of recent national polling. This may be the result of both polls being conducted before the Wallstreet Crisis. Obama may need to call in Bill and Hillary to help bring "lunch bucket Democrats" into the fold. Biden, from PA, also plays a role in securing PA's 21 electoral votes.  We'll move PA to tossup if any other polling suggests the race as tied or McCain leading.

Rockin' Pollin' Ohio

Unless something breaks for one side or the other, we may just keep Ohio in the tossup column until our last projection. Both sides have reasons to be cautiously optimistic.  For McCain, there have been eight polls conducted in the last three days, six of which he's leading.  Obama is hoping for some traction after two consecutive polls show him leading here.  Neither candidate has been able to break the race wide open, and it's unlikely either will.  More polls have been conducted in Ohio than any other state since the party conventions ended (13 since September 9th).  Obama can claim the White House simply by winning Ohio and hanging on to the Kerry states.

Meet Virginia Tossup

All year long, polling has suggested a tight race in Virginia.  All the sudden, we have numbers all over the place. In the past week, the race has been shown to be anywhere from Obama leading by two to McCain leading by nine. Two polls show the race as tied.

Colorado & New Mexico (Obama's Backup)

The best news of the week for Obama may be that he's still protecting his lead in Colorado and expanding his lead in New Mexico. In Colorado, voters have been surveyed seven times since the close of the RNC, and Obama has led in five of those polls by an average of four points. He's also led in the last two consecutive polls, one by ten points. In New Mexico, Obama has led in three consecutive polls by seven or eight points.

45 Days...

We are at another turning point in the campaign where Obama has an opportunity to extend his lead. McCain's gaffes and flipflops could be catching up to him.  Palin's plunge isn't helping either. If national numbers continue to hold up for Obama, will the battlegrounds show equal movement? 

While it's clear there's been a momentum shift back in Obama's favor, one week is a lifetime in American politics.  The last time McCain needed a jolt to his campaign, he shocked everyone with Palin. If at some point, the campaign begins to slip away, he may just pull another fast one. 

Looking to next week, John McCain probably can't wait until the first debate, which will focus on foreign policy and national security. He's proven, thus far, to be a better speaker than many thought he'd be in the forums we've seen so far. The expectations won't be high for McCain so even a mediocre performance is sure to get high marks from his surrogates (Ditto Palin). 

Next Friday's debate between Obama and McCain, moderated by Jim Lehrer, begins at 9:00 pm EST and can be watched on most major networks.  Third party candidates will not be included as none have reached a 15% minimum polling requirement (in five polls) as mandated by the Commission on Presidential Debates.

Electoral Update - Enough Is Enough. Obama Fights Back.

Last week's Electoral Projection focused on the Democrat's chances in Alaska and John McCain's climb up the electoral ladder. In this week's projection, McCain keeps on climbing in Missouri, and Obama is still stuck in the electoral mud.

Over the past three weeks, the nation has witnessed a flurry of GOP bombs hurled at Barack Obama.  Besides the Paris and Brittany ads attacking his popularity, a slew of anti-Obama books have hit the shelves including Corsi's The Obama Nation.  The attacks worked, and projections everywhere, including our own, show McCain gaining serious ground while Obama remains flat (graph). Meanwhile, the media pile on.

As national numbers have drifted toward John McCain's favor, so have battlegrounds like Missouri where Obama has now fallen behind in the last three consecutive polls by an average of 7 points.  As a result, we've moved Missouri from tossup to McCain.

We've been waiting for several days for Obama to change the dialogue of this election. And just three weeks ago, I was asking, "Where's the beef?" in Obama's campaign. The Mister Nice Guy approach hasn't worked for him since March when Hillary Clinton began throwing flames of her own. 

So finally, after closing his eyes and taking a vacation, Obama is fighting back.  Last week, in a first sign of showing teeth, Obama firmly warned John McCain to not question his patriotism. And yesterday,  Obama tore into McCain's perceived notion of a "fundamentally strong economy" and reminded Americans of McCain's wealthy lifestyle. I get the sense that Obama is getting sick of being pushed around by the playground bully.   

The new aggressive strategy is almost certain to be a preamble of what's to come at next week's Democratic Convention in Denver. After eight years of losing close elections as a result of not waging an all-out political war, the new strategy will be well received.  The words of George W. Bush are rarely appropriate, but for this moment, they are.  "Bring it on!"

We're starting to see a finer definition of where the battlegrounds are going to be in 2008. If the election remains close, it appears the race for the White House will be won or lost in Virginia (13), Colorado (9), Ohio (20), Florida (27), Nevada (5), and North Carolina (15).  

Barack Obama needs to win just 18 electoral votes in states where Kerry lost.*  He's off to a good start with leads in Bush states, NM (5) and IA (7), but that won't be enough.  The battlegrounds listed above represent 89 electoral votes where Obama is most capable of winning.  He cannot afford to lose ground in places like Minnesota and New Hampshire where Obama is ahead but by smaller margins than he was one month ago.

* Kerry fell 19 electoral votes shy of 270 in 2008 with one elector from MN voting for John Edwards.

Electoral Update - Making History In The Last Frontier

The fallout from the Ted Stevens scandal may be far greater than the loss of one senate seat.  A new Hays Research poll in Alaska now shows Democrat Barack Obama leading there by five points.

It's been a very long time since Alaska was considered a swing state. In fact, Alaska has only once, ever, gone Democratic since becoming a state in 1959.  Could Barack Obama become the first Democrat to win Alaska since Lyndon Johnson?

Even before the Stevens brouhaha, McCain was on thin ice.  Most polls throughout the summer showed the Arizona Senator with only a five or six point lead. Comparing those numbers to the 30 point victories for George Bush in 2000 and 2004 gives Alaskan Democrats plenty of reason to believe their state may finally turn blue.  

ALASKA RESULTS  (source:  Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections)

2000	Bush 58.6%	Gore 27.7%	Bush + 30.9%
2004	Bush 61.1%	Kerry 32.5%	Bush + 28.6%

We should also point out that Mark Begich has also made tremendous gains since Stevens, his opponent, was formally charged with seven felony counts of failing to disclose gifts received from an oil contractor.  The last time a Democrat captured a US Senate seat in Alaska was 1974.  Could Democrats be on the verge of making history in The Last Frontier?  More on that in next Thursday's Balance of Power Projection.

Besides Alaska, the race essentially remains unchanged. The slight electoral changes over the last two weeks represent subtle nuances in the methodology we use to assign a state. As our writer LibraryPolitico said just days ago, the race remains static.

A Rasmussen poll yesterday shows McCain leading by a single point in Colorado, well within the margin of error (5%).  This is the second poll in the last three weeks showing McCain with a small lead.  Obama and McCain have split the last four polls, which is why we've moved this state from leaning Obama to tossup.  My guess is that Colorado, along with Virginia and Ohio, will remain very close all the way to election day.

US Senate Projection - Democrats Expected To Gain Big

CLICK HERE FOR THE AUGUST 26TH US SENATE PROJECTION.  

A few weeks ago, we brought to you an analysis of a few key US Senate races. Today, we're introducing our first Balance of Power Projection for the 111th Senate. Between now and November 4th, we'll keep you informed of all the US Senate races and regularly update our projections based on our analysis of recent poll data.

There are 35 Senators up for reelection this year, and 23 of them are Republicans. Democrats are heavily favored to gain a minimum of four seats, and a few other close races could deliver one or two more.

The current balance of power in the 110th Senate stands at 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and 2 Independents. Democrats control congress because Sanders (I-VT) and Lieberman (I/D-CT) both caucus with Democrats. Assuming that Lieberman gets the boot in a few weeks, Democrats are sitting on 50 seats (including Sanders) going into November.

Our current projection has Democrats controlling the next Senate session with 55 seats (+5).  Republicans are projected to hold 42 seats, and three races remain in the tossup column.  Democrats have a lot of work to do if they expect to reach a filibuster proof majority (60 seats).  

AR - Pryor	AK- Begich +1	MN - Franken/Coleman	ID - Jim Risch	AL - Sessions
DE - Biden	CO- Udall +1	MS* - Musgrove/Wicker	KY - McConnell	GA - Chambliss
IA - Harkin	LA- Landrieu	OR - Merkley/Smith	ME - Collins	KS - Roberts
IL - Durbin			NC - Dole	MS* - Cochran
MA - Kerry			TN - Alexander	NE - Johanns
MI - Levin				OK - Inhoffe
MT - Baucus				SC - Graham
NH - Shaheen +1				TX - Cornyn
NJ - Lautenburg				WY* - Enzi
NM - Udall +1				WY* - Barrasso
RI - Reed
SD - Johnson
VA - Warner +1
WV - Rockefeller

* state has more than one US Senate Race in 2008

Close Observations - Merkley & Hagan

Rasmussen Reports, just two weeks ago, showed Gordon Smith and Jeff Merkley tied in Oregon. Now, Survey USA shows Republican, Gordon Smith, leading by 12. Of the last four polls, two have been within the margin of error and two have indicated a nine to twelve point lead. Too much inconsistency in the polls keeps this race in the tossup column. Suppert Jeff Merkley today in this close race.

We're rooting for Kay Hagan in North Carolina. After "Liddy" Dole's disgusting attempt to add Jesse Helms' name to an HIV/AIDS relief bill...that's right, Jesse Helms, the deceased NC Senator who frequently opposed AIDS research and attributed the cause of HIV to "deliberate, unnatural acts"..., we hope Hagan crushes Dole like a bug. 

Speaking of Senators who are getting crushed, here's a video of Ted Stevens getting a friendly smooch from Ms. Liddy.  

Although Hagan is giving Dole the fight of a lifetime, she'll need all the help she can get to take down almighty Dole. Six polls from July show Dole with a lead somewhere around 10%.  But if you're a Republican incumbent in North Carolina, you're expected to be leading by 20.  The word on the street is that Dole is skipping the convention.  Dole's sweatin' now.   Help Kay Hagan keep the heat on Elizabeth Dole.

On Friday:  An updated Electoral Projection.  Gains for John McCain?