Campbell Blows the "Lidd" Off Outrageous Attack Ad

In a desperate attempt to save her US Senate seat in North Carolina, Republican Elizabeth ("Liddy") Dole has aired one of the most despicable political ads in recent memory. Democratic challenger, Kay Hagan, has surged ahead of Dole in recent Tarheel State polls. Apparently Ms. Dole will do or say anything to hold on to power, as evidenced by the attack ad which accuses Hagan of being "godless".

CNN's Campbell Brown calls Liddy out:

McCain Campaign Bails On Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa

CNN's John King is reporting that the McCain-Palin campaign is throwing in the towel on three key battleground states: Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa. In order to reach an electoral vote majority of 270, the Republican ticket is now going all-out for victories in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada and a very long shot come-back in Pennsylvania. 

Only by winning all six of these states does McCain have a chance at garnering the necessary electoral votes to secure the Presidency on November 4th. Talk about a 'Hail Mary' pass!   

h/p: Taegan Goddard

Debate Flash Polls: Game, Set, Match

Here are the results of flash polls taken immediately after tonight's third and final Presidential debate:

CNN:  Obama 58%, McCain 31% (all viewers)

CBS News:  Obama 53%, McCain 22% (undecideds)

MediaCurves:  Obama 60%, McCain 30% (independents) 

Additionally, focus groups on CNN, MSNBC and Fox News (!) all found that Obama won the debate.

More Good News for Obama: Internals from CNN Flash Poll

It just keeps getting better for the Illinois Senator. These internals are from the CNN Flash Poll following tonight's second Presidential debate:

Who expressed his views more clearly in the debate?

Obama 60% 
McCain 30%

Who spent more time attacking his opponent?

Obama 17% 
McCain 63%

Who seemed to be the stronger leader?

Obama 54% 
McCain 43%

Who was most likeable?

Obama 65%
McCain 28%

h/t: DailyKos

Second Verse, Same as the First: Obama Wins at Belmont

The first flash polls are out and they show that Senator Barack Obama won the second Presidential debate by about the same double-digit margins as he garnered after the first debate eleven days ago.

CBS Flash Poll:  Obama 39%, McCain 27% (among undecided voters)

CNN Flash Poll:  Obama 54%, McCain 30% (among all viewers)

Change we can see coming...

InstaPolls: Biden Wins Debate

The first two instaPolls about tonight's Vice-Presidential debate are out. Both give a clear win to Joe Biden over Sarah Palin.

CNN:  Biden 51%, Palin 36%, among all viewers of the debate.

CBS:  Biden, 46%, Palin 21%, draw 33%, among undecided voters.

Video Quote of the Day

For those who think competence matters, check out this damning video clip from Fareed Zakaria, columnist for Newsweek and host of GPS on CNN, as he talks about Republican VP nominee Sarah Palin.

CNN's Campbell Brown to McCain Campaign: Free Sarah Now!

New Poll: GOP Takes the Hit on the Economy

Just when you may have started to wonder if half of your fellow citizens have been in a coma for the last eight years, a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll gives some hope that they haven't been. In a poll released this afternoon, the researchers found that twice as many Americans hold the Republicans responsible for the current economic mess than blame the Democrats. Well, duh.

Some 47% of those questioned believe the GOP is more responsible for the present (lousy) state of the economy, while 24% blame the Democrats. You gotta think those 24% have simply been off their meds too long.

These views already seem to be having an impact on the national, head-to-head poll numbers in the presidential race. The same poll gives Barack Obama a 51%-46% lead over Republican John McCain among registered voters.  It's a pity that so many voters have to be hit over the head with reality before they wake up, but such is the state of the body politic in America these days. Only forty-two days to go...

Lou Dobbs Must Go

CNN's Lou Dobbs has been caught supporting the most outrageously racist, disgusting piece of trash yet to emerge in this election campaign. While attending the right-wing Value Voters Conference this weekend, Dobbs purchased a box of ObamaWaffles from a vendor at the meeting. 

Although it is beyond all bounds of decency, I have provided the hyperlink to the website hawking this unbelievably slimy, sleazy racist 'product' so you can it see for yourself. Be warned: it is totally disgusting.

This photo, from Pandagon.net, shows Dobbs holding a box of ObamaWaffles while posing with one of the neanderthal 'creators' of this racist garbage. 

This photo of Dobbs was initially posted on the ObamaWaffles website itself. Only a few hours ago it was pulled down and any mention of Dobbs was removed.  I imagine Lou had a 'Don Imus moment' when he saw the attention his support for overt racism was getting. Well he should have. 

It is stunning that a racist like Dobbs is given hours of access to millions of viewers every week by a widely respected news organization like CNN. Even worse, Dobbs is paid big bucks for his efforts while he hides behind a totally fictitious claim of being politically independent. He says independent, I say racist. It's time for CNN to face the truth and to do the right thing.

CNN should fire Lou Dobbs immediately. You can help make that happen by calling CNN at 1-404-827-1500. Tell CNN that racist-supporting slugs like Dobbs undermine CNN's integrity and destroy its journalistic reputation. He has no place on a news network. He must go. You can also send your comments to CNN electronically via their website.

Unbelievable, just totally unbelievable. 

The State of the Race and Dispelling Media Myths

With the Democratic National Convention set to kick off in Denver, polls are being released galore to provide a baseline before the most condensed and eventful two weeks in recent political history commences. One poll that caught my attention today was the Washington Post/ABC News poll that was conducted late last week, it provides many details on a host of questions and shows that much of the media narrative is non-sense.

Let’s first get down to the pure brass tacks of the poll, which I consider one of the more reputable ones out there, mainly because they’re more transparent about their methodology and release detailed information broken down by demographic.

Obama leads McCain 48-42% in a four way contest (With Nader and Barr) among likely voters, which is basically where the race has been, sans some minor ebbs in both directions, for months. Despite the much talked about negative (and allegedly, effective) attacks by John Sidney McCain III, Obama still sports a 62-34% favorable rating (McCain’s is a robust 59-37% as well). In comparison, at this point in 2004, John Kerry’s favorable rating was only in the +10% range and never did exceed a 55% favorable rating…while Obama, after a much more bruising primary, is flirting with 2:1 territory and one that is extraordinary stable.

Let’s talk about some other myths that this poll puts to rest:

Obama isn’t connecting on the economy

He leads McCain on the economy by a 50-39% margin.

McCain is killing Obama on the drilling issue!

Obama leads 49-42% on Energy issues.

Additionally, Obama is keeping McCain’s advantage among terrorism to a mere 52-38% margin, is tied with him with Iraq and taxes; and sports a double digit lead in social issues.

Here’s another myth:

Obama is underperforming the usual Democratic strength among whites, women, and Hispanics.

While John Kerry lost whites by a 41-58% margin (From 1992-2004, the Democratic nominee ranged from 39-42% of the white vote), Obama only trails McCain 49-43% among whites; and that’s with a decent amount of undecideds and at least a fraction of those will break for Obama. Obama leads among women 55-37% over performing John Kerry, Al Gore, and Bill Clinton’s margin among females, sometimes by significant margins.

Of course, married women are a real weakness for Obama, right? All those angry Hillary supporters will harm his candidacy fatally, no? He leads 48-44, a group that voted for Bush by 11 points four years ago.

Well then, naturally whites making less than 50K are a weakness for Obama? Well he leads by a 49-40% margin, where Kerry lost this group by 7 points.
As for Hispanics, he overperforms Kerry by a significant margin as well, leading 61-27% among the group that Kerry only got 57% with. A particular strong showing against a Southwestern Senator from a border state, who is a moderate on immigration.

Obama has even made significant strides among traditionally Republican voters. While George Bush won White Evangelicals by a 78-21% margin, Obama has cut the GOP advantage to a 65-27% margin; a near twenty point swing. He is also polling double what John Kerry did among self-described Republicans. While he still faces insurmountable deficits among those groups, in a close election those are significant number of votes gained.

While I know the storyline of working class white Americans and other groups that Obama underperformed with in the primary not supporting a black candidate is intriguing, it just isn’t based in the data.

While, it is still a tight race, it is a static one and one that still favors Senator Obama. This race has potential to be fluid soon though, with two conventions in the next ten days. But for now, the media coverage is fundamentally not honest. No wonder, since the media is in the tank for John Sidney McCain III. And why wouldn’t they be? He cooks BBQ for them at his retirement estate in Sedona, AZ.

But let’s be honest about the state of the race.

You Get What You Pay For. Well, maybe not always...

Poor CNN. They spent all that money on a new poll conducted on their behalf by Opinion Research Corp and then they couldn't bring themselves to use it. Although the poll results were released yesterday afternoon around 3pm ET, Campbell Brown's prime time program at 8pm ET never mentioned it. Instead, Ms. Brown briefly cited CNN's so-called 'poll of polls' (some sort of average of selected polls, but they never tell us which ones).

Why would CNN not use its own poll?

Could it be that the reason CNN chose not to use its own poll was because that poll's results don't fit CNN's predetermined narrative about this election? After all, the CNN/Opinion Research poll showed Obama with a 7 point lead over McCain (51% to 44%), a lead outside the margin of error. CNN's concocted 'poll of polls' gave Obama a five point lead (48% to 43%). That is barely inside the margin of error, allowing the CNN chattering classes to portray the race as a tie.

I guess if you are doggedly determined to present the 2008 presidential contest as a horse race that is 'virtually tied' even the respected polls you pay for can be tossed in the trash if they don't support the narrative. Facts cannot be allowed to get in the way of the network story line.

So much for the 'best political team on television'.

New Polls: Obama Leading in FL, OH, PA

Those of us who follow polls on a daily basis are just now recovering from emotional shock after Monday's disastrous Gallup flop.  To help expedite our recovery, Quinnipiac has just released a group of new polls for a few key states.

Florida:  

Obama 46  McCain 44

Ohio:  

Obama 46 McCain 44

Pennsylvania:  

Obama 49  McCain 42

It's difficult to put stock into these numbers however.  Quinnipiac is calling McCain's latest numbers a surge despite Florida and Ohio netting him just 2% over last month.

"'The $64,000 question is whether Sen. John McCain's surge is a result of Sen. Obama's much-publicized Middle Eastern and European trip, or just a coincidence that it occurred while Sen. Obama was abroad,' said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute." 

"'While Obama was on tour, trying to show voters he could handle world affairs, voters were home trying to fill their gas tanks,' Brown added."

Obama was just three days into his foreign tour when Quinnipiac began polling (July 23).  The miniature gains by McCain in this latest round of polling are unlikely the result of a "surge" of sudden support.  Put your checkbook down Mr. Brown, I'll take the $64K in cash. 

CNN's Political Ticker producer, Alexander Mooney, couldn't resist the urge to present this story as some spectacular theatre.

"But in what could be a warning sign for Obama as voters begin to turn their attention to the general election race, Obama's lead appears to have dwindled, or barely remained steady, in all three states..."

Warning sign?  Nothing has changed.  Florida and Ohio have been close all summer.  There was virtually no lead for McCain to narrow in the first place.  As for Pennsylvania, a Strategic Vision (Republican) poll released just yesterday shows Obama leading by nine.  Mr. Mooney apparently didn't get the memo.

Last week, Quinnipiac also showed a 15% swing for John McCain in Minnesota, narrowing Obama's lead to just 2% in less than a month.  Quinnipiac's Minnesota number is so far distant from other polling groups (including their own data from the month before) that it's almost certain to be a statistical outlier.  See also Colorado.

There's no shortage of reporters who desperately want a horse race, and you'll be hard pressed to find a surge in anything these days unless you're looking for a growing number of miscalculated blunders by professional pollsters. 

Tomorrow:  Friday's Electoral Projection.