KY's Lunsford Lets The Dogs Loose on McConnell

Democratic candidate Bruce Lunsford sets the hounds after Mitch McConnell in the Bluegrass State's US Senate race:

Lunsford Crushes McConnell in KY Senate Debate

Democratic Senate candidate Bruce Lunsford routed incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell in a debate that was televised statewide this evening. The Senate Minority Leader and twenty-four year veteran of the US Senate was repeatedly left speechless under relentless questioning by the Bluegrass Democrat.

McConnell was unable to answer questions about his refusal to call the current economic crisis anything more than a "slowdown". He could not explain his vote for the $700 billion bailout of Wall Street, nor was the Republican able muster a defense of his votes to spend $600 billion in Iraq while at the same giving tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans.

Lunsford hammered McConnell for leading a record number of filibusters in the current Congress. Mitch was unable to justify his obstructionist record in the Senate as America veered towards its worst economic crisis in nearly eighty years.

"Once again, the great and powerful Mitch McConnell loses his voice when it's time to defend the atrocious record he's piled up after 24 years in the Senate and 40 years on the public payroll," Lunsford spokesman Cary Stemle said. "Kentucky voters deserve to know, and yet McConnell has nothing to offer."

Breaking News: Bill Clinton to Campaign for Lunsford in KY

In a press release issued just minutes ago, the US Senate campaign of Bruce Lunsford announced that former President Bill Clinton will be stumping for the Bluegrass Democrat this Friday, October 24th. Lunsford is in a tight race to unseat incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell who is also the Senate Minority Leader.

Current plans are for the former President to make campaign appearances with Lunsford at two western Kentucky rallies, one in Paducah and another in Bowling Green. Additional details about the Clinton-Lunsford campaign events are expected later today.

Last month, Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) also campaigned for Lunsford, holding rallies in Lexington and Pikeville.

U.S. Senate Projection: Sixty Seats Within Grasp

A mere 22 days out and it’s time to look at the battle for the U.S. Senate and, much more importantly, the Democrats' effort to capture sixty seats in the Senate.

Nearly every top tier race has moved towards the Democrats.  Some races previously not on the radar are suddenly competitive (like Georgia), although a few longshots that Democrats once had hopes for (like Tennessee and Idaho) have faded to safe GOP territory. The only Democratic held seat that was initially thought to be competitive was in Louisiana where the perpetually endangered Mary Landrieu was in a tight race. Recent polling, however, shows Senator Landrieu moving into a comfortable lead.

Let’s run down the Senate seats in order of their likelihood to switch parties:

Virginia (Strong Democrat): Political writers have long run out of ways to say Mark Warner has a lock on this seat. He’s currently performing better among Republicans than Republican Jim Gilmore is among Independents. Retiring Senator John Warner (a Republican) is publicly still undecided. Ouch!

New Mexico (Strong Democrat): Congressman Tom Udall is running away with this Republican-held open seat over right-wing Congressman Steve Pearce. The nasty GOP primary between Pearce and Congresswoman Heather Wilson will likely cost the Republicans one or both of those House seats. The NRSC has already pulled out of New Mexico where Udall has consistently led by 15 points or more.

New Hampshire (Strong Democrat): Jeanne Shaheen jumped out to an early, big lead when she announced her candidacy against John Sununu, but the race has closed a bit as of late. Sununu is personally well-liked, a fact that might keep him from the fate that befell Pennsylvania's Rick Santorum two years ago. However, increasingly blue NH is no longer well-aligned with Sununu ideologically and Shaheen is still a solid favorite. The principal volatility in this race is provided by the Granite State’s large number of independent voters.

Colorado (Leans Democrat): Another Udall is likely to help the Democrats on their road to 60. This time it’s Colorado Congressman Mark Udall (Tom's cousin) who has posted somewhat narrow but still solid leads over “Big Oil” Bob Schaffer throughout the campaign. A just released poll from PPP has Udall over 50% with a 10 point advantage. If Udall wins, Colorado, like Virginia, will have gone from solid red territory only a few years ago to having two Democratic Senators and a Democratic Governor.

North Carolina (Leans Democrat): While initially considered a long-shot by many observers, Kay Hagan has opened up a solid lead over nationally known and prominent Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole. The DSCC has been hammering Dole with some of the best and toughest ads of the cycle and even top Republicans (and respected neutral observers like Chuck Todd) doubt she has much of a chance to come back.

Alaska (Leans Democrat): Despite some closing in polls, the presence of Sarah Palin on the ticket and the conventional wisdom that Stevens’s trial isn’t going as well as hoped for the prosecution, we still think Mark Begich has a slight edge in this contest. However, this race is unlikely to be a blowout (think Montana 2006). This is still a very fluid contest as Stevens' trial will likely be concluded by election day. He could be convicted or exonerated just as Alaska voters go to the polls. There are lots of variables in this one.

Oregon (Tossup): Jeff Merkley has been surging lately and Gordon Smith has been sinking. Smith still has a somewhat moderate profile and, up until fairly recently, Merkley’s campaign struggled to get traction. This is certainly one of the closest Senate races in the nation, but Merkley has the momentum and will certainly benefit from a strong Obama showing in the state. In the end, this contest could closely mirror the 2000 Washington State Senate race when Al Gore's coat-tails helped Maria Cantwell over the finish line to defeat then-incumbent Slate Gordon.

Minnesota (Tossup): I've long been extremely skeptical of Al Franken’s chances of unseating Norm Coleman, but I’ve slowly been proven wrong. Polling in this race has been very erratic with independent Dean Barkley’s candidacy making this race a nightmare to poll or predict. That said, however, the most recent numbers and the momentum are now on Franken’s side.  A recent brouhaha over Brooklyn-born Norm Coleman's suits (yes, his suits!) has not helped the incumbent Republican. Watch Coleman's campaign manager struggle in this painful press avail:

Kentucky (Tossup): Bruce Lunsford’s ability to make his campaign about the economy and McConnell's ties to Big Oil have made this race a surprising tossup in recent weeks. With a united Democratic Party behind him and plenty of money to compete down to the wire, Lunsford is waging a fierce battle against the current Republican incumbent and Senate Minority Leader. He might well pull off the upset of the 2008 election.

Mississippi (Tossup - barely): Interim Republican Senator Roger Wicker has failed to build a sustainable lead over former Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove in a race that should have been an easy GOP win. In fact, Wicker has been unable to get over the critical 50% mark in any of the recent polls. With economic issues at the forefront, Obama surging in national polls and a very large African-American turnout expected in rural Mississippi, Musgrove has a fighting chance to unseat Wicker.

Georgia (Tossup - barely): Probably the most surprising recent development in any Senate race has been the sudden tightening of the contest between incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss and Democratic challenger Jim Martin in the Peach State. It remains to be seen if Chambliss' considerable financial advantage (read: avalanche of TV spots) can help him regain the large lead he once had.  Although this race could still fairly be categorized as lean GOP, we are moving it to (barely) tossup not only because of the most recent polling but also on the strength of sky-high African-American turnout in early voting. This election may come down to Martin's ability to raise enough money to run an effective media campaign in a state where media buys are more expensive than in most of the rest of the southeast. ElectBlue has now added the Georgia race to our list of targeted US Senate contests.

Idaho (strong GOP): In spite of conservative third and fourth party candidates on the ballot, Republican Jim Risch seems to have attracted previously skeptical GOP voters in the race to fill the seat left vacant by retiring Republican Senator Larry 'wide-stance' Craig. Democratic candidate Larry LaRocco trails by double digits. 

Tennessee (strong GOP): Previously high hopes by Tennessee Democrats for Bob Tuke in his race against incumbent Republican Senator Lamar Alexander have evaporated. Underfunded and lacking a strong, united Democratic Party, the Tuke campaign has been stillborn. Look for a double digit Alexander win in the Volunteer State.

Although Senate races in Texas, South Carolina, Maine, Nebraska and Oklahoma have closed considerably in recent weeks, Republican incumbents in those states still look safe.

The DSCC’s path to 60 is still alive and well, just in mutated form. It's looking increasingly likely that Democrats could extend their majority to super-sixty by winning both Oregon and Minnesota.  Even more encouraging is the fact that Martin, Lunsford and Musgrove are all well positioned to surprise their Republican opponents in November.  These races are the new path to a filibuster-proof Senate majority for a President Barack Obama.

Critical Election Dates This Week: Sept 22-Sept 28

Every Monday, ElectBlue will post critical dates in the upcoming week for participating in the November election. These critical dates include voter registration deadlines and early voting information.  

Voter Registration: Voter registration is still open in all fifty states and the District of Columbia through this week.

Early Voting: Early voting is now underway in the following states: GA, KY and VA. Early voting will begin tomorrow (Tuesday, Sept 23rd) in IA.

Action: Call, text, email or talk in person to everyone you know. Make sure they are registered to vote and encourage them to early vote where possible. 

New Polls: Support for Key GOP Senators Collapsing

There is a new - and potentially dramatic - finding in three separate US Senate races. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has posted this report on its website:

With the Republican convention in full swing in St. Paul, three new polls from Survey USA show approval ratings for Republican Senators Norm Coleman, Gordon Smith and Mitch McConnell collapsing. In Minnesota, Norm Coleman’s approval has dropped to 44%, with 51% disapproving – an all-time high. In Oregon, Gordon Smith’s job approval has dropped to 38%, with 56% disapproving – his approval rating is at an all time low and has dropped 7 points since last surveyed in May. In Kentucky, Mitch McConnell’s approval has dropped to 44%, with 47% disapproving – his approval rating is down 13 points since SUSA last polled in May.

Historically, approval ratings below 50% have spelled disaster for incumbent candidates. That's gotta be good news for Al Franken in MN, Jeff Merkley in OR and Bruce Lunsford in KY.