Record Breaking Election

This data will be refined in the coming days. So far, here's what we know.

• More than 130 million people voted yesterday, at least eight million more than in 2004.
  
• Obama won 66% of the 18-29 year-old vote, compared to Kerry winning 54%.
  
• Virginia and Indiana both turned blue for the first time since 1964.
• Candidates spent $5.3 billion during the Campaign 2008 season!

ElectBlue projected Obama to win 364 electoral votes and McCain 174. It appears our projection will hit the nail on the head when the final tallies come in from Missouri and North Carolina.

h/t: Politico

Rasmussen: Obama +10 in VA

Obama needs 18 electoral votes beyond the 2004 Kerry states to get to 270.  He's built a firewall in VA (13) and IA (7) where McCain has fallen way behind.  Obama is also currently leading by strong margins in Colorado (9).

Here's today's Rasmussen poll in Virginia.

Electoral Update - Staging the Fat Lady

Roger Simon of Politico says this morning that the outlook for McCain is "bleak." Howard Wolfson is calling the McCain campaign a "casualty." Jay Cost of Real Clear Politics says McCain is in a "terrible spot." Peter Wehner labels the challenge ahead as a "daunting task." And Joe Klein compares McCain's campaign to "throwing crap against a wall."

So, forgive me if it takes incredible restraint to keep from saying, "It's over. John McCain is toast."

I know what you're thinking already!

Yes, yes.. it's important to remember that we have nearly a month left until Election Day. However, it's a steep climb and a far stretch for John McCain to win, and here's why.

As we've mentioned before several times, John Kerry's 2004 states represent 252 electoral votes. It's important to know that Barack Obama is performing very well in every one of those states. He's solidified his position in PA, MI, WI, NH and MN appears to be shaping up too. He's also performing very well in Iowa (7) and New Mexico (5), two states that Bush won in 2004.

252 (Kerry States) +  12 (IA/NM) = 264

That leaves Obama needing just six electoral votes to get to the magic 270. Just six.  That's it. And just where can Obama find six electoral votes? There are many possibilities.

Nevada (5) where Obama has led in the last three consecutive polls. For that reason, we're moving Nevada from tossup to leans Obama.

Colorado (9) where Obama leads by an average of five points over the last several polls. Rasmussen/Fox News, just today, has Obama leading by six points.

In Virginia (13), polls yesterday and today show Obama winning by large margins.

More than 600,000 new voters have been registered in North Carolina (15) in 2008. Maybe that's part of the reason why polls lately have not only shown Barack Obama leading but also Kay Hagan.  We're moving North Carolina from the tossup list to the leans Obama column.

Missouri (11) had been polling in John McCain's favor all year.  Late polls now show Barack Obama leading here; however, there are not enough recent polls for us to know where the race stands. Don't be surprised if the Show-Me state reveals more polling favoring Obama this week.

Florida (27) and Ohio (20) are once again big trophies.  As we said last week, John McCain absolutely must win both to have any chance of becoming the nation's next president. McCain who once was leading in both states is now behind. That is especially clear in Florida where Obama appears to be in control. Fox News/Rasmussen's poll from today shows Obama winning by 7, and Quinnipiac less than a week ago had Obama winning by 8. 

Ohio (20) is not as clear to us not only because recent polls have gone back and forth but also because we are not clear about new voter registration numbers. RCP's Ohio average favors Obama by 3.5 points. As we've promised, Ohio will remain in the tossup until a clear leader emerges.

These states have a combined 100 electoral votes, and Obama needs just six of them.  John McCain needs virtually every one from all seven states. While it is quite possible for McCain to win a few of these states, the probability of him winning every one (or even all but one) is quite remote. 

He will need a real game changer..an October surprise..if he's to have any shot at all. It's no exaggeration to say that tonight's debate is a do-or-die situation for McCain.

Possible? It certainly is. In the meantime, someone should be telling the fat lady to clear her throat. She's the next act to perform.

Here are some interesting facts about Ohio from the 2004 election.

- John Kerry lost Ohio by 181,601 votes (-2.1%).

- Hamilton County, Cincinnati, favored George Bush (222,616) over John Kerry (199,679). -5.41%

- One in five voters in 2004 voted in either Franklin or Cuyahoga counties. Kerry won both.

- Counties with the largest numbers of voters.

2004

County	Kerry	%	Bush	%
1. Cuyahoga	448,503	66.57%	221,600	32.89%
2. Franklin	285,801	54.35%	237,253	45.12%
3. Hamilton	199,679	47.09%	222,616	52.50%
4. Montgomery	142,997	50.60%	138,371	48.97%
5. Summit	156,587	56.67%	118,558	42.91%
6. Lucas	132,715	60.21%	87,160	39.54%
7. Stark	95,337	50.59%	92,215	48.93%
8. Butler	56,243	33.71%	109,872	65.86%
9. Lorain	78,970	56.11%	61,203	43.49%
10. Mahoning	83,194	62.60%	48,761	36.69%
11. Lake	59,049	48.47%	62,193	51.05%
12. Trumbull	66,673	61.65%	40,977	37.89%

We will be publishing two updates per week between now and Election Day, a mid-week update on Tuesday and a more thorough analysis every Friday.

Electoral Update - McCain's Slow Motion Implosion

Last week, John McCain was on the brink of disaster. Today, his campaign is a disaster.

With just 31 days left until Election Day, John McCain's campaign is collapsing. For two weeks, several national polls have shown a growing momentum for Barack Obama. Swing state polling however had been slow to show the same effect..until now.

McCain's bread and butter (Florida and Ohio) are now toast. The collapse is especially visible in Florida where seven polling organizations in the last week have conducted surveys.  Six of the seven show Obama leading by three to seven points. For the first time since our first projection, Florida now leans Obama. As for Ohio, Obama is gaining there too; however, the contest in the Buckeye state remains very close. As promised, we intend to keep Ohio in the tossup column until a clear leader emerges.

We also made the same promise about Virginia. Virginia (13) has remained in the tossup column for the whole year except for the week directly after the RNC when we projected McCain to be leading. Since our last projection, three of five polls show Obama passing McCain with numbers at or above the 50% mark. ARG, who shows a three point edge for McCain, has often been erratic in 2008 (see RCP's response to Nate Silver), and Mason-Dixon also found McCain to be leading in their last poll on 9/22. But given what we know about Obama's surge in national averages and polling in neighboring North Carolina (15), we project Virginia to be leaning slightly for Obama.

Florida (27) + Ohio (20) = 47

Florida and Ohio are absolutely necessary for John McCain to win. Even with those states, getting to 270 will be difficult given what we know about Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, and McCain's busted hope on Michigan. As my good friend and fellow blogger Stephen Moody said earlier:

"The abandonment of a serious effort in Michigan further complicates an increasingly difficult challenge for the McCain campaign to garner the necessary 270 electoral votes for a victory on Nov. 4th. Now more than ever, both Florida and Ohio have become must-wins for the GOP ticket."

Obama's momentum is broad and deep and is evident in three of the categories we use for our projection.

1. States that previously were leaning Obama have now moved to solid Obama (PA, MI, NJ, NM, OR).
   
2. Two states previously listed as tossup have now moved to lean Obama (VA, FL).
   
3. Two states that were previously leaning McCain are now tossup (MO, NV).

It's safe to say that this is Barack Obama's high water mark for the year so far. For eleven weeks Obama's electoral advantage has remained flat, primarily because of Florida and Ohio. Those two nuts haven't been easy for Obama to crack. The recent crash on Wall Street, Palin's wobbly interview, Obama's debate win, and McCain's gimmickery all have dragged the Republican ticket down. John McCain, just from last week alone, has lost 43 electoral votes. 

Questions to consider between now and next week:

1. Is Barack Obama's lead sustainable? 

Much has been made of the buyer's remorse theory this year. While voter's may have been weary of Barack Obama months ago, they don't appear to be now. Charges that he may be inexperienced or an amateur have been undermined by McCain's real amateur running mate. Obama's first debate performance also reassured independent voters of his ability to handle foreign affairs.  It appears that for the first time many voters are becoming comfortable with the idea of a President Obama.

2. Will the slow motion collapse of John McCain's campaign accelerate, slow down, or stop? 

The electoral ceiling for Barack Obama is somewhere between 50 and 60 votes higher than our current projection estimate. The last three weeks have been a complete disaster for John McCain. Obama's numbers will continue to climb as long as the economy keeps losing jobs and McCain keeps shooting from the hip. Palin's satisfactory debate performance is likely to make news for one or two days, but it will be irrelevant in less than a week (veep debate analysis). For John McCain to have any chance at a significant comeback, Barack Obama will have to stumble.

3. Would Tina Fey really make a good Vice President? I don't know about you, but it's hard for me to distinguish the difference between the SNL version of Sarah Palin and the real Sarah Palin. Here's a video with a side-by-side comparison. See what I mean?

As so many have said already, a week is a lifetime in politics. But aside from some unforseen disaster, Barack Obama is likely to be elected as the 44th President of the United States. Thousands of people in Ohio and Virginia have already made their choice by voting early, and with each passing day, thousands more will do the same. One third of the electorate will vote by November 4th. 

The probability of McCain using another gimmick is about 90%. The chances of it working are close to zero. And if his strategy once again becomes attacking Obama, he runs the risk of digging the hole even deeper than it is now. If John McCain wins this election, it won't have anything to do with a new McCain campaign strategy/gimmick. Barack Obama holds the keys to victory for both himself and John McCain.

National Polling Update: Static, Static, Static!

Now that the most condensed two weeks of Presidential campaign action have passed, I think it’s worth revisiting, briefly, the state of the race.

* Obama did get a bounce from his convention. However, it was obviously shortened and truncated by the Palin announcement on Friday and the GOP convention the following week, which made some uninformed “journalists” write nonsense stories.

* McCain did get a bounce, and a good one (there is an inherent advantage to having your convention last, as both 2000 and 2004 show). There’s no denying that, but…it has receded the last few days.

* In fact, as I have stated numerous times, that race seems…well, static. McCain’s national numbers have come back to earth and are basically were they were before Senator Obama picked Joe Biden. The Rasmussen and Gallup tracks are basically where they were at three weeks ago, and the new Diageo/Hotline and R2K/Kos tracks have the race reverting back to a four point Obama advantage, and the trendline in all four polls has shown a three or four point swing to Obama in the last few days.

* While it’s too soon to tell what the impending economic crisis will mean to the campaign, Obama has shown strength in poll samples the last couple nights. But most importantly, in the Hotline tracking poll, Obama has gone from a two point advantage on the issue of the economy last Friday to an eleven point advantage today. He also now enjoys a 57-33% lead on the question of which candidate “better understands people like you?” Also in the Hotline poll is the nugget that Obama has opened up a twelve point lead on energy, up from just four a few days ago.

* Palin’s favorable rating has collapsed: Last week, Hotline’s fav/unfav rating for her was a robust 48-24%, now it’s merely a 47-36%. Whereas the R2K/Kos poll has her rating down to 45-44%, a net swing of 13% since Friday.

* John Sidney McCain III’s has too: His ridiculous and discredited attacks have brought his favorability rating from 56-43% on Friday to today’s 49-45%. Whereas Obama’s has stayed stable from a 57-41% to 54-37%. John McCain’s strengths have always relied on his character and personal “integrity;” and once that is gone, he’s just another generic Republican candidate.

Since state polling often lags behind (mostly due to the low volume of it compared to national polls) it’s still hard to tell how they have been affected. But there is some anecdotal evidence (such as Virginia going back into a tie or a small Obama lead) that Obama has bounced back in many swing states. But let there be no question, the race is where it was, and where it’s always been. A tight race but one whose fundamental dynamics and state favors Barack Obama.

Electoral Update - McCain Closes In

In our seventh Electoral Projection, John McCain continues to climb the electoral ladder, adding another 19 electoral votes to his total.  McCain, with 240 electoral votes, is closer now than ever to Obama (268).  There are now just three tossup states on the map. Nevada, New Mexico, and Ohio, all of which George Bush won in 2004, are too close to call.

Virginia (13) continues to be a key battleground although there does appear to be a tiny shift toward John McCain. According to a recent CNN/Time poll, McCain is beating Obama by 9 points with Independent voters in Virginia.  It should also be noted that this same poll is the first to show either candidate with a lead outside of the margin of error (50-46) since May. Three consecutive polls now put McCain ahead in Virginia, thereby shifting its status from tossup to leaning McCain.

McCain Picks Up Montana, North Dakota & Alaska

The addition of Sarah Palin has without a doubt electrified the Republican base.  Montana (3), previous to Palin, was thought by many to be in play.  One July poll showed Obama leading and another had both candidates tied. The newest polling by Rasmussen now shows an 11 point lead for McCain. 

The story is the same in North Dakota (3) where the race was competitive prior to Palin's entrance. Rasmussen's latest poll now show's a 14 point lead for McCain. Women, who previously favored Obama by 9 points now favor John McCain by 11. Independents have also shifted toward McCain.  It's safe to assume that Alaska (3) be a lock for McCain too.

Obama Picks Up Colorado, loses New Mexico

Barack Obama shows a net gain of four electoral votes this week.  New Mexico polling before the close of the Republican convention consistently favored Barack Obama.  A new poll now suggests McCain leading by just two points, well within the poll's +/- 4% margin of error.  New Mexico shifts from Obama to tossup.

Obama's lead in Colorado (9) mirrors that of John McCain's in Virginia. Polling in both states shows both candidates leading in three consecutive polls, albeit by small margins. Although McCain has undoubtedly benefited from a convention bounce in most states, there doesn't appear to be one in Colorado. The most recent polling in Colorado, by Insider Advantage, suggests that Obama still leads among Independent voters. The same poll also shows Obama leading McCain with women and men by the same margin, 49-46.  Obama also does well with Hispanics according to a recent PPP poll (58-34).  Colorado moves from tossup to Obama.

Pollsters have been busy in Michigan (17) lately.  Five polls have been conducted since the close of the Republican convention, and three of the five show the race as a statistical dead heat. McCain leads in the most recent Insider Advantage poll, his first lead here since May.

In seven weeks, McCain has added 65 electoral votes to his total. Barack Obama, who had 268 electoral votes in our first projection, has neither gained nor lost any ground. Most of McCain's surge can be attributed to his success in solidifying the Conservative base. This is especially true in traditional Republican strongholds where McCain's support was once soft (MT, ND, AK, IN). Now, with Palin on the ticket, the electoral map is shaking out to look more like what it did in 2000 and 2004. Colorado (Bush 2004 +5%) and Virginia (Bush 2004 +8%) the two exceptions so far. For Obama, he absolutely must hang on to the Kerry states. He then must find a way to capture 17 electoral votes from states where Bush won in 2004*.  Obama appears to have a solid lead in IA (7). Ten more?  Any combo of CO (9), NM (5), and NV (5) would put him over the goal-line.  Florida (27) and/or Ohio (20) all by themselves get the job done too.  This is by no means the only scenario that Obama can win.  It is however the most likely scenario at this point in the race. [CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE]

* Kerry received 251 electoral votes (19 short).  However, Kerry would have received 252 had one elector from MN not voted for John Edwards (18 short of 270). If Obama wins the Kerry states plus 17 electoral votes from Bush states, both candidates tie 269-269. Obama is certain to win in the event of a tie as the state delegations in the U.S. House favor Democrats.  Read more here about 269-269 scenarios.

 

The big questions going forward are:

• Can John McCain sustain his current numbers?  Much has been heard of the WalMart moms who are suddenly excited about Palin.  But if history is any indication, veep choices rarely matter.  Will Palin change all that?  Yes, she has a compelling story, but will that be enough to really sway voters?
• Can Obama hang on to the Kerry states?  John McCain's hopes of winning this election ride almost entirely on Ohio and Florida.  Losing ground in either one could spell disaster for McCain.  For Obama, sustaining his leads in states where John Kerry won is absolutely necessary.  So far, Obama has protected these states, but Michigan is very close.  Wisconsin is not far behind.
  
• Is there a page two of the Palin story?  It's all or nothing with Sarah Palin.  And John McCain can't keep Sarah Palin from the press forever. What more will we learn about Palin as the days and weeks go on? It's likely that McCain has gained the maximum potential out of Palin alone. What goes up usually comes down, even in politics. How much down remains yet to be seen.