When Boxer is paired against the two GOP U.S. Senate hopefuls, the incumbent holds early double- digit leads over her two lesser-known opponents in general election match-ups. Against Fiorina Boxer’s lead is 49% to 35%. When she is paired against DeVore her lead is 50% to 33%.
This comes on the heels of Jeb Bush's public signal that he plans to stay neutral in the Crist-Rubio primary; Many believe this is Jeb's way of quietly telling influential Florida Republicans that he'd prefer Rubio but doesn't want to alienate Crist since he's still the heavy favorite in the primary. For Rubio, he needs to show some viability and that begins with his next fundraising report. But the most important fundraising report might actually be by the end of the year when you'll truly be able to see how Rubio's been able to use the Jeb neutrality (support?) to his advantage. Remember, Jeb is to Florida Republicans what Reagan is to the party nationally, he's held in THAT high of regard.Headlines like this create visibility for Rubio. His chances are slim still but not as slim as they were before Rove's donation. If Rubio can create momentum and show that he's a viable candidate, Jeb Bush may just break his silence.
Here's a race that we'll be following closely in the coming months. North Carolina hasn't been so warm and friendly to Republicans lately, tossing out Elizabeth Dole last year and replacing her with Democrat, Kay Hagan. North Carolina also went blue in last year's election for the first time since 1976 and elected the state's first ever female governor, Beverly Perdue
"...the hero of Hurricane recovery, General Russell Honore is seriously considering entering the Republican Primary for the U.S. Senate seat against incumbent David Vitter. Honore, a Republican since the Reagan Administration and a registered Louisiana voter from his Zachary home, has spoken to friends and supporters in the last two weeks signaling that he is, according to one, 'more than 50% sure that he will run.'"h/t: Taegan Goddard
"The news comes mere hours after Third District Congressman Charlie Melancon announced his firm intention to be the Democratic challenger to David Vitter in the fall of 2010. Melancon, who represents the critical swing areas of Central Acadiana--a region known for crowing statewide candidates--has already proven a serious obstacle for the incumbent Senator to keep his job. Even if Vitter should emerge victorious from the closed Republican primary, a bruising fight against Honore could leave the Senator financially and visibly weakened before the onslaught of a Moderate Democrat like Melancon--one of the leaders of the fiscally conservative Blue Dog Caucus in the House."
"While Mary Landrieu's 2008 re-election showed that electing a Democrat to the U.S. Senate remained possible in increasing Republican-leaning Louisiana, she had Obama's coattails. Now according to the latest Gallup polls, the President's job approval rating stands at 52%, drastically down from the overwhelming support he had at his inaugural. That signals a public backlash and a GOP revival. Of course, if Honore is the GOP candidate instead of Vitter, he could benefit from these trends. But then again, so could the incumbent Senator."
"Still, Vitter cannot do what others like Woody Jenkins and Suzie Terrell attempted with Mary Landrieu, brand Melancon as socially out of sink with Louisiana voters. The Napoleonville Democrat is ardently pro-life and opposes same sex marriage."
"And, all things being equal, Cajuns DO vote for Cajuns. Whether Republicans will vote for an African-American hero General over their own incumbent GOP Senator remains to be seen."
Independent voters, who back Sen. Specter over Toomey 45 – 36 percent, switch to Ridge 47 – 37 percent if he becomes a candidate. The former Republican Governor also gets 14 percent of the Democratic vote, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
On Wednesday, Bayh put out an e-mail to supporters stating, “Last November, Indiana made history by voting to put a Democrat in the White House for the first time in nearly a half century. In choosing Barack Obama to lead our country during a time of extraordinary economic upheaval, Hoosiers sent a clear message: America is ready for a leader committed to taking bold action to protect American jobs and restore our middle class.”
Bayh added, “President Obama was elected to lead in challenging times. The last time our country faced a crisis of this magnitude was 1932, when Franklin Delano Roosevelt was sent to Washington with a broad mandate to pull our country out of the Depression. Within 100 days, he passed a series of economic reforms to restore faith in our markets and confidence in our country. Every president since has been evaluated against him for what they’ve been able to accomplish in their first hundred days.”The poll also found that even 61% of Republicans view Bayh in a positive light, which may be why (despite high approval ratings of his own - 69%), Republican Governor Mitch Daniels says he's not running.
Kentucky Sen. Jim Bunning, the most endangered Republican up for reelection in 2010, appears headed for retirement after giving his leading GOP rival the blessing to prepare to run for his seat next year.
Bunning’s retirement would be a huge victory for national Republicans who have grown increasingly nervous that the 77-year-old two-term senator would lose a critical race as the party tries to cling to its diminished minority in the Senate.
(1:50 pm) RE Specter's Party Switch:The pressure is now on moderate democrats to stop the radical agenda. I am disappointed and surprised.
(two minutes later) On lighter note, Sen Dodd came to Republican meeting where Specter was speaking and asked if Ds could trade for someone else.
April 28, 2009President Obama's reaction: "You have my full support, and we're thrilled to have you."
Statement by Senator Arlen Specter
I have been a Republican since 1966. I have been working extremely hard for the Party, for its candidates and for the ideals of a Republican Party whose tent is big enough to welcome diverse points of view. While I have been comfortable being a Republican, my Party has not defined who I am. I have taken each issue one at a time and have exercised independent judgment to do what I thought was best for Pennsylvania and the nation.
Since my election in 1980, as part of the Reagan Big Tent, the Republican Party has moved far to the right. Last year, more than 200,000 Republicans in Pennsylvania changed their registration to become Democrats. I now find my political philosophy more in line with Democrats than Republicans.
When I supported the stimulus package, I knew that it would not be popular with the Republican Party. But, I saw the stimulus as necessary to lessen the risk of a far more serious recession than we are now experiencing.
Since then, I have traveled the State, talked to Republican leaders and office-holders and my supporters and I have carefully examined public opinion. It has become clear to me that the stimulus vote caused a schism which makes our differences irreconcilable. On this state of the record, I am unwilling to have my twenty-nine year Senate record judged by the Pennsylvania Republican primary electorate. I have not represented the Republican Party. I have represented the people of Pennsylvania.
I have decided to run for re-election in 2010 in the Democratic primary.
I am ready, willing and anxious to take on all comers and have my candidacy for re-election determined in a general election.
I deeply regret that I will be disappointing many friends and supporters. I can understand their disappointment. I am also disappointed that so many in the Party I have worked for for more than four decades do not want me to be their candidate. It is very painful on both sides. I thank specially Senators McConnell and Cornyn for their forbearance.
I am not making this decision because there are no important and interesting opportunities outside the Senate. I take on this complicated run for re-election because I am deeply concerned about the future of our country and I believe I have a significant contribution to make on many of the key issues of the day, especially medical research. NIH funding has saved or lengthened thousands of lives, including mine, and much more needs to be done. And my seniority is very important to continue to bring important projects vital to Pennsylvania's economy.
I am taking this action now because there are fewer than thirteen months to the 2010 Pennsylvania Primary and there is much to be done in preparation for that election. Upon request, I will return campaign contributions contributed during this cycle.
While each member of the Senate caucuses with his Party, what each of us hopes to accomplish is distinct from his party affiliation. The American people do not care which Party solves the problems confronting our nation. And no Senator, no matter how loyal he is to his Party, should or would put party loyalty above his duty to the state and nation.
My change in party affiliation does not mean that I will be a party-line voter any more for the Democrats that I have been for the Republicans. Unlike Senator Jeffords' switch which changed party control, I will not be an automatic 60th vote for cloture. For example, my position on Employees Free Choice (Card Check) will not change.
Whatever my party affiliation, I will continue to be guided by President Kennedy's statement that sometimes Party asks too much. When it does, I will continue my independent voting and follow my conscience on what I think is best for Pennsylvania and America.
There’s still some indication within the numbers that Hispanic voters might be angry that one of them was not appointed to replace Ken Salazar. Bennet’s spread with Hispanics is 36/45, much worse than Barack Obama’s 58/36 and one he’ll have to improve with that Democratic leaning demographic if he’s going to be reelected.
"[John McCain] is fully responsible for the deaths along our borders, the raging violence in Mexico and the violence we have in the streets of U.S. cities from border to border and coast to coast. We need someone to take a strong stance, say, 'Enough is enough, you're not representing us.'"
Senator Chris Dodd is seeking his sixth term, and is the son of former Senator Thomas Dodd (who, ironically, lost in 1970 as a result of perceived unethical behavior) and a former Presidential candidate. That’s where the problems began, moving his family to Iowa (literally, they bought a house) with a poorly defined reason for running left his constituents with the distinct impression that he had long left Connecticut behind. Added to this is the widely reported favorable mortgage rate from Countrywide Financial, and his high profile dealing with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in his capacity as Senate Bank Committee Chair, has put him in the precarious position of being at the forefront of his constituent’s anger over the financial crisis. Finally, his purported role in the AIG bonus fiasco has further made things difficult for Senator Dodd.
Republicans scored a nice recruit in Fmr. Congressman Rob Simmons (who was defeated in a razor close race in 2006 by Democrat Joe Courtney), who has political experience, ability to raise money, and name recognition. Simmons’s major liability, however, is his close ties to the Republican Brand and President Bush as well as his continued close ties to lobbyists which will make it difficult for him to make an effective case that Dodd is the unethical one in the race. GOP State Senator Sam Caligiuri has also declared his candidacy, and former Irish Ambassador Tom Foley is considering a run in the GOP primary, but Simmons starts the race as the clear frontrunner for the nomination.
Dodd has shown no indication he’s willing to retire and the DSCC is standing firm behind him; and his close personal friendship with party heavyweights like John Kerry (who sent out a fundraising appeal for Dodd recently) and Ted Kennedy make it unlikely Senate Democrats will force Dodd into retirement. Likewise, with his pedigree and legendary name, no serious opposition appears likely for Dodd in the primary. But if Dodd steps down, look for State AG Richard Blumenthal to seriously consider the race.
The most recent polling has Simmons with a double-digit lead over Dodd at this juncture (though the immediate aftermath of the AIG fiasco likely artificially deflated his numbers). As Senate Banking chair, Dodd has the ability to fundraise easily; however considering his current issues raising a ton of money from Wall Street and Banking interests could end up being a liability to Dodd’s image.
