Electoral Update - GOP End Times

There are worse scenarios for Republicans than just losing the 2008 presidential election, even if it's a big loss costing them more seats in Congress. There are mid-terms two years from now and another general in 2012. Bush's damage to the GOP brand will pale in comparison if John McCain's campaign becomes the party's Grim Reaper devastating its electoral prospects for years to come. 

Are we witnessing the end times for the GOP?

For the first time, many Americans are noticing the clear indications of racism (video) and seething hatred (more video) at Republican rallies. If we could look through the portals of time, we might see the mainstream media years from now giving credit to the many bloggers who took their video cameras to McCain/Palin rallies (more video). If only Lou Dobbs had done the same in 2000 and 2004. But who are we kiddin'?

As a result of McCain and Palin far too often tolerating dangerous cheers (more video) from within their own party, the further the Republican party distances itself  from the mainstream. The longer they refuse to disavow the extremists in their own ranks (or at least legitimately acknowledge the problem), the longer it will take for mainstream Republicans to reclaim their rightful seat at the table of American politics.

Each of the major parties has it's share of nuts to bear (more video). Let's just say it. Republicans all too often have allowed their wackos to guide, manage and control party politics. Wingnuts in the Republican party, represented by the likes of Neil Boortz, who blamed the Virginia Tech victims for their own deaths (audio) and other Fox News nuts (more video), have been feeding the caged beast for years. Now, the beast has broken free and is running amok at Republican rallies. Thanks to Youtube, we can all watch without fear of getting hurt.

Republicans need change they can believe in too. They won't find it anytime soon with leaders like John McCain and George Bush who have made a smoldering ruin of the Grand Old Party. Until new leadership emerges and rejects the lunatics who can be heard every day on the radio and television, they will continue to marginalize themselves out of major party politics.

Onto our projection...

Nobody is listening to John McCain. Not anymore. 

What little message he may have is falling upon deaf ears. The billowing cloud of dust you're seeing is the slow-motion implosion of McCain's campaign and the entire GOP along with it. His electoral numbers can hardly get worse while members of his own party daily acknowledge Republican doom. All the while, nobody is paying attention to John McCain.

McCain's campaign is in the basement and national numbers are still falling. In our 13th week, he is losing every battleground including eight states that George Bush won in 2000 or 2004 (NV, NM, CO, IA, OH, FL, VA, NH). The tight race in North Carolina (15) causes us to shift it into the tossup column beside Missouri (11),which is on the verge of turning blue for Obama. Aside from 26 tossups, Barack Obama currently leads John McCain 338-174.

All in all, 116 electoral votes have vanished from Republican presidential map in the last eight years/eight weeks. Even more dire for McCain is that things could get worse. Indiana, West Virginia, Montana, Georgia, North Dakota and Mississippi could also fall by the way side if McCain's free-fall continues. 

McCain's double-digit leads in several traditional Republican strongholds have fallen to single digits while Obama has just enough time to catch up.  Already this week, one poll from North Dakota shows Obama leading while Montana, West Virginia and Georgia aren't far behind. Indiana has remained close all year. 

It's difficult to determine any trends in these third tier states because they have been surveyed so infrequently. Pollsters who assumed John McCain might win these states by large margins may want to reconsider where they make their next phone calls.

Bill Clinton won 376 electoral votes in 1996 (+8.5% popular vote margin). Obama's electoral strength is reaching heights close to those numbers.  Real Clear Politics' national average gives Obama a 7.4% advantage today,  nearly equal to our latest electoral college projection.

AP to Neutrality and Logic: Drop Dead

The Associated Press has been a disgrace to journalism lately under the direction of their DC bureau chief Ron Fournier, who just last year was in serious talks with John McCain’s campaign as a paid advisor; and they are at it again.

Yesterday, the AP released another on a long line of many hit pieces on Senator Obama. This one proclaims that despite for all of Obama’s talk about expanding the electoral map, he is quickly adopting the “Win Ohio” strategy that John Kerry’s ill-fated campaign adopted in 2004. Their “evidence” for this is that Obama in his post-convention tour visited such traditional battlegrounds such as Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Quite obviously, this is proof that he has given up on all other states his campaign has targeted.

Let’s look at (and refute) some of the more dubious claims on the piece:

"Despite early optimism, Obama's strategists are mapping out an electoral plan similar to Democrat John Kerry's from 2004…. But don't look for the Democratic presidential nominee in, say, undeniably GOP Idaho.”

This is probably true…I do not expect to see Obama make a play in Idaho, however no one serious ever claimed he would. This is a state that George Bush (only Wyoming and Utah were more favorable to the GOP in 2004) won by nearly forty points. In other news, John Sidney McCain III isn't making a play in Vermont. Gasp!

"Obama has long looked for a way to win the White House without the 20 electoral votes of Ohio, the prototypical swing state. His top aides, including his campaign manager, once said they could lose the state and still win the election by picking off states that typically support Republicans. No more."

Really now? While Obama is still, as he always has, focusing a great deal of attention on Ohio, it is hardly his “be all and end all” of his electoral strategy. Let’s just consider this for a moment:

Michigan and New Hampshire are the only two Kerry states that McCain is even in striking distance, and in both states Obama is polling narrowly, but consistently, ahead of McCain. The Kerry states puts him at 252 electoral votes, and he now has a double digit lead in Iowa and a high single digit lead in New Mexico which would bring him to 264 electoral votes. Now Obama is not guaranteed to win the aforementioned four states, but he is clearly favored. 538’s regression model (not to mention essentially every poll) has him winning Michigan and New Hampshire by 3-4%; as well as Iowa and New Mexico by 7-9%. If these numbers hold, Obama is already at 264 electoral votes.

So where does that leave John Sidney McCain III? He would have to win states where he has a slight, though unclear polling advantages such as Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Montana, and North Dakota; all of which except the last two possess enough electoral votes to put Obama over 270, should he win.

Of course, there are also states like Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado where the race is essentially a deadheat (though 538’s regression gives Obama a very slight advantage in all three); that Obama can rely on to win. Even Nevada which, again, is a basic dead heat (though 538’s regression gives a very slight advantage for McCain as of this writing) would bring it in a 269-269 tie (Even if Obama loses all of the other states that I mentioned), which would probably result in his victory. While this area is murky and without a lot of precedent, most analysis confirms that Obama would likely prevail in a 269-269 tie, due to the Democratic advantage in Congress (See all of 538's regressions based on historical data and polling models here).

Needless to say, Senator Obama has plenty of electoral scenarios that don’t go through the Buckeye State. Maybe they should write a story on how Michigan is essentially a must-win for McCain (unless he wants to roll the dice and hope he runs the table among the other swing states).

Maybe the AP will consider being thoughtful and fair for once. But I'm not holding my breath.

Electoral Projection

** Check the front page for the latest Electoral Projection **

We like Dave Leip's formula for allocating a state for one candidate or another.  We've designated states to a candidate only if they are leading in the last three consecutive polls. Otherwise, a state remains a tossup.  I've made one exception for Colorado because Obama has led in six of the last seven polls.  Yesterday's Quinnipiac poll puts McCain up by two. One poll well within the margin of error isn't enough to convince me to make any changes.  We will be updating the electoral college map at the end of each week through the election cycle.

We're nearing the end of July, and an average of national polls over the last few weeks shows Obama leading McCain by four or five points.  There will be a lot of eyes watching polls next week to read into whether or not Obama's foreign tour had an impact.

With 101 days left until E-day, I thought it would be interesting to look back at where polls were in July 2004.  Kerry led throughout June and July, and then the swiftboating began. There are clear differences between 2004 and 2008 (poor economy, no incumbent, etc.), so we won't reach too far in drawing conclusions.  Regardless, these numbers should serve as a reminder of how quickly presidential races can change.  In other words, this is no time to be resting on our laurels.

Group	Date	Bush	Kerry	Nader/Camejo	Spread
Marist (573 LV)	7/30-8/2	47%	47%	1%	TIE
CBS News (991RV)	7/31-8/1	43%	48%	3%	Kerry +5
CNN/Gallup/USAT (LV)	7/30-8/1	51%	45%	2%	Bush +6
ABC News/WP (LV)	7/30-8/1	47%	49%	2%	Kerry +2
ARG (776 RV)	7/30-8/1	45%	49%	2%	Kerry +4
Newsweek (1010 RV)	7/29-7/30	42%	49%	3%	Kerry +7

  Source:  Real Clear Politics 2004 Presidential Poll Averages

Taking a look at past electoral and popular vote margins puts something else into perspective.  A five or six point popular vote margin, as small as it may seem, will probably translate into at least 320 electoral votes.  

	Popular Vote Margin	Electoral Vote Margin
2004	2.46%	35
2000*	-0.54%	5
1996	8.51%	220
1992	5.56%	202
1988	7.72%	315
1984	18.21%	512
1980	9.74%	440
1976	2.06%	57