The Race Is Static

Despite all of talk about how Obama's trip abroad or John McCain's non-sensical "celebrity" ads were either expanding or contracting Obama's advantage, all data on a national level suggests that the race has remained static the past few weeks with Senator Obama continuing a lead in the mid-to-high single digits.

Last week three non-tracking national polls were released by Time, AP-Ipsos, and CBS...and what did they show? Well if you were listening to the media (those people who are supposed very pro-Obama, if you listen to Senator Dole..err McCain), you'd think Obama was in some sort of free fall. But that's simply not the case as these polls showed leads of five, six, and six points respectively. Of course, that's the same basic range of five to eight points that the junior Senator from Illinois has enjoyed in most polls in the past two or three months. That consistent advantage is one that neither George Bush or John Kerry ever enjoyed in 2004 for any real length of time, and should not be discounted. With few outlying exceptions, Obama has polled in the 46-49% range, while Senator McCain has lingered in the 39-43% range in most polls since the Spring.

While neither Obama's trip nor McCain's ads seem to have made a lasting impression in the polls, we must wait to see if they've sowed seeds of doubt (or reassurance) among independents and undecideds come the Fall. But for now, the race is essentially in a state of static. As Dan Balz wrote in the Washington Post this weekend:

Amid a profusion of polls and a war of words and television commercials, the underlying dynamics of the election appear little changed in the two months since the primaries ended. Democrat Obama still faces reservations among voters about his background and readiness. Republican McCain still faces questions about whether he has a governing vision that represents a clear break from the policies of President Bush.

Note: Yes, I am aware of Bill's wonderful Electoral Projection that has Florida moving from undecided to Lean McCain, but I find that not too surprising and most, if not all, observers have considered to be slight-lean McCain for a long while; though I certainly think the race in the Sunshine State is very tight especially considering McCain got a head start there. I would advise everyone not to get too excited or agitated with a poll that shows either candidate moving their numbers a slight bit in either direction.

Travel Bounce?

The Gallup daily tracking poll for today (July 27) gives Obama a nine point lead over McCain. This is the largest margin for either candidate since Gallup began its Obama-McCain match-ups in mid March of this year. Although Obama has consistently led the daily tracking poll in recent weeks, his margins have been in the 2-3 point range.

Friday's Rasmussen tracking poll showed Obama with a five point edge, which was also an improvement in his performance in that poll in recent weeks.

Could these be the first hints of a bounce in Obama's numbers as a result of his highly successful travels to the Middle East and Europe? No doubt we will see more polls in the coming days to help answer that question. Personally, I'm feeling pretty good about it.