National Polling Update: Static, Static, Static!

Now that the most condensed two weeks of Presidential campaign action have passed, I think it’s worth revisiting, briefly, the state of the race.

* Obama did get a bounce from his convention. However, it was obviously shortened and truncated by the Palin announcement on Friday and the GOP convention the following week, which made some uninformed “journalists” write nonsense stories.

* McCain did get a bounce, and a good one (there is an inherent advantage to having your convention last, as both 2000 and 2004 show). There’s no denying that, but…it has receded the last few days.

* In fact, as I have stated numerous times, that race seems…well, static. McCain’s national numbers have come back to earth and are basically were they were before Senator Obama picked Joe Biden. The Rasmussen and Gallup tracks are basically where they were at three weeks ago, and the new Diageo/Hotline and R2K/Kos tracks have the race reverting back to a four point Obama advantage, and the trendline in all four polls has shown a three or four point swing to Obama in the last few days.

* While it’s too soon to tell what the impending economic crisis will mean to the campaign, Obama has shown strength in poll samples the last couple nights. But most importantly, in the Hotline tracking poll, Obama has gone from a two point advantage on the issue of the economy last Friday to an eleven point advantage today. He also now enjoys a 57-33% lead on the question of which candidate “better understands people like you?” Also in the Hotline poll is the nugget that Obama has opened up a twelve point lead on energy, up from just four a few days ago.

* Palin’s favorable rating has collapsed: Last week, Hotline’s fav/unfav rating for her was a robust 48-24%, now it’s merely a 47-36%. Whereas the R2K/Kos poll has her rating down to 45-44%, a net swing of 13% since Friday.

* John Sidney McCain III’s has too: His ridiculous and discredited attacks have brought his favorability rating from 56-43% on Friday to today’s 49-45%. Whereas Obama’s has stayed stable from a 57-41% to 54-37%. John McCain’s strengths have always relied on his character and personal “integrity;” and once that is gone, he’s just another generic Republican candidate.

Since state polling often lags behind (mostly due to the low volume of it compared to national polls) it’s still hard to tell how they have been affected. But there is some anecdotal evidence (such as Virginia going back into a tie or a small Obama lead) that Obama has bounced back in many swing states. But let there be no question, the race is where it was, and where it’s always been. A tight race but one whose fundamental dynamics and state favors Barack Obama.

Electoral Update - Waitin' for the Bounce

If you still hold doubts about Barack Obama's toughness, you clearly missed his acceptance speech. After McCain attacked Obama's patriotism, the gloves had to come off.

After gaining on Obama throughout August, polls are now suggesting a sputter in the McCain attack strategy.

Today's tracking polls reveal a serious gain for Obama.  Gallup's tracking poll shows Obama now with an eight point lead, and Rasmussen gives him a four point favor.  This is a much different picture than where we were during the middle of August when these two flagship polls suggested the race to be much closer.

Although there are scattered indications that Obama will get a significant bounce from his selection of Biden and the Democratic Convention, there are not yet credible polls from swing states to make any changes in our projection this week.  Not enough polling data is available yet to move any of our swing states in either direction.  

A new Mason Dixon poll now shows Obama with a 1% lead in Florida. Although within the margin of error, the poll is significant because, until now, McCain had led in every poll this month. We're keeping Florida in the McCain column for now until more polling is released.

Two of the last three polls in Colorado show Obama leading again.  Suffolk puts Obama up by five while CNN shows McCain leading by one. 

PPP shows Obama now leading in Virginia by 2%, and Obama is stretching his lead in New Mexico.  The race in Ohio is still a dead heat.  Nevada is on the verge of turning blue again as Obama has led in the last two consecutive polls.

Alaska's three electoral votes may be in the bag for McCain with Palin now on the ticket.  We'll wait to see as more data becomes available.  The same can be said about Pennsylvania with Biden on board.  Overall, it's too early to see how much momentum Obama will have going into next week's Republican Convention.  I suspect Obama's numbers will shift in his favor in every swing state, especially Colorado and Ohio.  Republicans will have a very hard time equaling the Democratic show we saw this week.