Remembering Palin

She made you laugh, she made you cry, she made you scream, "WTF?" in your sleep.  Bob Cesca updates us on the "2008 Doof of the Year" award.  At the moment, she's winning in a landslide.  If you haven't voted already, there's still time.



We too are praying that she become the GOP's nominee in 2012. Imagine all the fun we'd miss out on if she weren't.

We Wish You a Merry Christmas!

From all of us at ElectBlue, we wish you a very Merry Christmas and, of course, a Happy New Year. May our best wishes find you happy and healthy during this holiday season!

Ohio Republicans Seek To End Early Voting

After losing an appeal to Democrats in the the Ohio Supreme Court back in September, Ohio Republicans will try once again try to block one-stop voting in future elections, this time by changing the law. The AP recently reported that Republican lawmakers in Ohio are doing all they can to quickly pass legislation that would end early voting procedures as we know them. Time is of the essence however as Republicans have only one month left of their majority stake in both the state's upper and lower legislative chambers.

While Republican officials were scrambling in Columbus last week, Ohio Secretary of State, Jenniffer Brunner, was focused on hosting an election summit where a few hundred election officials from around the country provided input as to how Ohio can improve in the future.  From the Cleveland Plain Dealer:

There was important conversation about provisional voting, registration problems, data bases, poll-worker training, early voting and the merits of touch-screen vs. optical-scan balloting. Not everyone agreed on everything, but one line of consensus did emerge:

Election practices are complex and interrelated, so beware of quick fixes. They tend to cause unexpected problems down the road.

This is the otherwise known as "unable to win by the rules, so let's change the rules" tactic in politics.  There's just one problem however...

Democratic Governor, Ted Strickland, is likely to veto the bill if passed.  Whewww.

Barack Obama won Ohio's 20 electoral votes this year, beating John McCain by more than 200,000 votes (+4%).

Status of Forces: A Mutually Agreed To Agreement

Only a few days after President Bush admitted making a mistake in 2003 by claiming "Mission Accomplished," White House Press Secretary, Dana Perino, cited the approval of a new security agreement between the US and Iraq as a reason to celebrate.

"This is a mutually agreed to agreement (sic). And that is one of the things that is different about an arbitrary date for withdrawal, when you want -- when you say you're going to leave, win or lose. We believe that the conditions are such now that we are able to celebrate the victory that we've had so far, and establish both a strategic framework agreement, which is a much broader document and talks about all sorts of cooperation that we'll have with Iraq from here on out -- from trade and health care and exchanges on science, and a real strong bilateral agreement that you would hope we would have with any of our allies."

Is this the English translation?  The mutually agreed to agreement?  This as opposed to the unilaterally unagreed to agreement or the agreed to non-agreement? But are we surprised? These are the same people who brought us the Iraq War (WMD and links to al-Qaeda).

The proposed Status of Forces Agreement is not a done deal yet.  The Iraqi Parliament will vote on the agreement next week on whether or not to set a firm deadline for American troop withdraw by December 2011 as well as place restrictions on the US military and their location within the country. A U.N. resolution which expires on December 31st would make it illegal for American soldiers to occupy Iraq unless the Parliament ratifies the deal.

Not everyone is happy about the proposal however. Thousands of Moqtada al-Sadr followers rallied in the streets of Baghdad yesterday protesting the new agreement, calling it a "surrender to American interests." Some were seen holding signs that read, "No, no to the agreement of humiliation." The protesters also stomped and burned an effigy of President Bush in Firdos Square(top picture below), the same location where American soldiers toppled the statue of Saddam Hussein five years ago (bottom picture).

So much for celebrating the victory, right? Not that Bush would take advice from anyone, but maybe he should have listened to Petraeus when he said this back in September. 

Hillary Clinton: "Keep Going"

It's been more than two months already since Hillary spoke these words at the convention. Allow me to reminisce this unforgettable moment.

Two Not-So-Trivial Political Questions

Question #1: When was the last time Democrats won more than fifty percent of the votes cast for members of the US House of Representatives?  

Answer: November 4, 2008.

Question #2: When was the last time Republicans won more than fifty percent of the votes cast for members of the US House of Representatives?

Answer: November 5, 1946. 

Yes, you're reading that correctly. The Republican Party has not won a majority of votes cast in US House races in more than sixty years. 

So much for all the blather about America being a center-right country.

h/t: OpenLeft

Help Defeat Shamless Chambliss

In 23 days, Georgia voters will go to the polls to decide who their newest US Senator will be..again. 

Jim Martin fell less than 3 points shy of beating incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss on November 4th. Neither candidate reached the 50% threshold required to win the seat outright and so the runoff is set for December 2nd.

Chambliss' dirty record over the past six years began with a disgusting ad against former Senator Max Cleland. Cleland, a Silver Star recipient who lost three limbs while serving in Vietnam, was portrayed in the ad alongside Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden.  Although the ad was quickly condemned by Republicans John McCain and Chuck Hagel, Cleland fell victim of the once popular Rove politics of fear. John McCain, no stranger to shameless ads himself, will be campaigning alongside Chambliss in the coming weeks.

Chambliss stood side by side with George W. Bush when privatizing social security seemed like a good idea and has been a very good friend of big oil. His record on veterans' benefits is one of the worst. He voted against funding modern body armor for soldiers in Iraq and opposed increased funding for veterans' health care programs 16 times. Overall, according to the Washington Post, Chambliss voted with George Bush 92% of the time. 

Here's Chambliss speaking for himself in this video: 

"One of the main reasons I'm running for the United States Senate is to make sure we get the Bush agenda enacted into law."

Help Jim Martin crush Shameless Chambliss on December 2nd by making a contribution to his campaign and by volunteering today.

November 4 Results (99% reporting)

Chambliss   1,866,612 (49.76%)

Martin 1,756,864 (46.83%)

Buckley    127,974 (3.41%)

Our Work Is Never Finished

A few Senate races are hanging in the balance. At least one will be up in the air for weeks.

• FiveThirtyEight is reporting that Saxby Chambliss did not reach the 50% threshold needed to secure victory last night.  He will have to face Martin again in a December runoff. 

• Just 571 votes separated Norm Coleman and Al Franken when the votes were counted last night in Minnesota. A mandatory recount is underway.

• Ted Stevens is somehow leading Mark Begich up in Alaska. While all the votes haven't been counted, Stevens is leading by more than 3000 votes with 99% reporting.  He's probably headed for victory. Democrats and Republicans are likely to throw Stevens out in January which will require a special election to replace him. And guess which Alaskan Republican is likely to run for his seat?  Mrs. Palin of course! 
  
  Looking further down the road, Palin would then have two years under her belt to run against Obama in the 2012 general.  You can bet ElectBlue will be following this race very closely and supporting Begich against his Republican opponent, whoever s/he is.

We will continue to follow these races as they develop.  Please support Jim Martin, Mark Begich and Al Franken today.

Yes We Can!

ElectBlue congratulates 

President-Elect Barack Obama.

Tom Too!

Congratulations to Mark Udall, cousin of Tom Udall (who also won) in his victory tonight in Colorado over Republican Bob Schaffer. Another Democratic pickup.

Udall Wins!

Tom Udall that is.  ElectBlue congratulates New Mexico's Tom Udall in his victory over US Rep. Steve Pearce. Udall and Pearce were competing for the seat left open by Republican Pete Domenici who retired in 2007.

Dole Out - Kay Hagan In

The state-run media (aka Fox News) is projecting Kay Hagan to be the newest US Senator from North Carolina.  Liddy Dole has officially been fired.

ElectBlue congratulates Kay Hagan, her family and her campaign staff!

Breaking: Obama Going Up on the Air in New Swing States

According to Mark Halperin's The Page, Barack Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe just announced on a conference call that they are going up with television ads in the final days in key and newly minted swing states such as North Dakota, Georgia, and John Sidney McCain III's adopted state of Arizona.

It's great to be expanding the field so much this close to the election. Barack Obama has several paths to victory, which is a welcome relief that Democrats won't have to bank on one certain state for once.

John Sidney McCain III: Out of Money

To paraphrase a certain former Secretary of Defense: "You go through the last two weeks of the election with the ad buys you have, not the ones you might want."

Who would have thought the Republican nominee for President would be flat broke going into the homestretch of the Presidential campaign? But, according to the Associated Press, John Sidney McCain III is just that.

The AP is reporting that according to his campaign's pre-general election report (which runs until October 15th) that after his outstanding debts McCain only has around $24 million left in the bank. Furthermore, through their rather conservative projections they estimate that as of this writing that number is now closer to $12 million (no word on Obama's current cash on hand take yet, but it's expected to be exponentially higher). No wonder he's trimming and even drastically cutting ad buys across the board in states he must win. The decision to take public financing, even his former aides such as Bob Shrum admit, ruined John Kerry's chances in 2004 (their decision to take public financing made them unable to counter the Swift Boat attacks); and they seem to have put a real damper of John Sidney McCain's chances as well.

Keep in mind that McCain is still relying heavily on RNC ad money to keep him visible on the air, but he still is in a tough situation financially speaking, as those ads are not subject to the same discounts from TV stations as candidate ads are. Also, look for the RNC to divert money to key Senate and House races in the coming days.

No wonder McCain's top aides are already quite literally updating their resumes.

Make sure Barack Obama and Senate Democrats have the funds they need to make it through election day.

Electoral Update - Running Up the Score

Leading up to the third and final presidential debate on Wednesday, Barack Obama was outdistancing John McCain by margins wide enough to make Bill Clinton jealous. The headlines lately haven't had as much to do with Obama winning  as they have how much he would win by.

After a barrage of polls over the past month, yesterday was one of the quietest state polling days of the year. Daily tracking polls have indicated a small shift toward McCain but nothing significant enough to change momentum. While everyone anticipates the results of post-debate polling, nothing lately has given us reason to make any changes from our projection on Tuesday. Obama still leads John McCain 338-174.  Two states, North Carolina (15) and Missouri (11), account for 26 tossups.

By a 2:1 margin, voters thought Obama won the last debate. However, the possibility of John McCain picking up one to two points isn't out of the question. Obama's 8-10 point lead for several days may have included a few disgruntled Republicans who were biting their tongues. They may now feel as if McCain rescued them by what they heard during McCain's exercise in anger management. Regardless, by Tuesday of next week, nobody will remember the debate or Sam the Handyman (aka Joe the Plummer).

Barack Obama's newest strategy to run up the score is bad news for John McCain and other vulnerable Republicans down the ticket. McCain doesn't have the money to adequately defend himself in Indiana, Missouri, Georgia, West Virginia, North Carolina, Virginia and Nevada while at the same time run an effective campaign in Florida and Ohio. Obama can compete anywhere he pleases and then some. Already today, we're learning that John McCain is behind in key counties across Ohio, Missouri, Pennsylvania and Virginia. As we've said before, Virginia is McCain's biggest nightmare.

This is beginning to sound like a broken record, but we'll say it again. John McCain has to win both Florida and Ohio. Even then, both states only get him a ticket to 11 p.m. on election night. Anything other than an all in move in Ohio and Florida is sure to end his chances. This has been and always will be his most essential priority for his campaign. Today, John McCain is campaigning Miami and Melbourne, Florida. Obama is in Roanoke, Virginia.

By the time we make our next projection (Tuesday), we may have an answer as to whether or not Colin Powell is going to endorse Barack Obama or not. He's appearing on Meet the Press on Sunday. We will also have a good idea whether or not McCain made up any ground from his debate performance. For now, we're just 18 days away from the CHANGE we need.

Electoral Update - GOP End Times

There are worse scenarios for Republicans than just losing the 2008 presidential election, even if it's a big loss costing them more seats in Congress. There are mid-terms two years from now and another general in 2012. Bush's damage to the GOP brand will pale in comparison if John McCain's campaign becomes the party's Grim Reaper devastating its electoral prospects for years to come. 

Are we witnessing the end times for the GOP?

For the first time, many Americans are noticing the clear indications of racism (video) and seething hatred (more video) at Republican rallies. If we could look through the portals of time, we might see the mainstream media years from now giving credit to the many bloggers who took their video cameras to McCain/Palin rallies (more video). If only Lou Dobbs had done the same in 2000 and 2004. But who are we kiddin'?

As a result of McCain and Palin far too often tolerating dangerous cheers (more video) from within their own party, the further the Republican party distances itself  from the mainstream. The longer they refuse to disavow the extremists in their own ranks (or at least legitimately acknowledge the problem), the longer it will take for mainstream Republicans to reclaim their rightful seat at the table of American politics.

Each of the major parties has it's share of nuts to bear (more video). Let's just say it. Republicans all too often have allowed their wackos to guide, manage and control party politics. Wingnuts in the Republican party, represented by the likes of Neil Boortz, who blamed the Virginia Tech victims for their own deaths (audio) and other Fox News nuts (more video), have been feeding the caged beast for years. Now, the beast has broken free and is running amok at Republican rallies. Thanks to Youtube, we can all watch without fear of getting hurt.

Republicans need change they can believe in too. They won't find it anytime soon with leaders like John McCain and George Bush who have made a smoldering ruin of the Grand Old Party. Until new leadership emerges and rejects the lunatics who can be heard every day on the radio and television, they will continue to marginalize themselves out of major party politics.

Onto our projection...

Nobody is listening to John McCain. Not anymore. 

What little message he may have is falling upon deaf ears. The billowing cloud of dust you're seeing is the slow-motion implosion of McCain's campaign and the entire GOP along with it. His electoral numbers can hardly get worse while members of his own party daily acknowledge Republican doom. All the while, nobody is paying attention to John McCain.

McCain's campaign is in the basement and national numbers are still falling. In our 13th week, he is losing every battleground including eight states that George Bush won in 2000 or 2004 (NV, NM, CO, IA, OH, FL, VA, NH). The tight race in North Carolina (15) causes us to shift it into the tossup column beside Missouri (11),which is on the verge of turning blue for Obama. Aside from 26 tossups, Barack Obama currently leads John McCain 338-174.

All in all, 116 electoral votes have vanished from Republican presidential map in the last eight years/eight weeks. Even more dire for McCain is that things could get worse. Indiana, West Virginia, Montana, Georgia, North Dakota and Mississippi could also fall by the way side if McCain's free-fall continues. 

McCain's double-digit leads in several traditional Republican strongholds have fallen to single digits while Obama has just enough time to catch up.  Already this week, one poll from North Dakota shows Obama leading while Montana, West Virginia and Georgia aren't far behind. Indiana has remained close all year. 

It's difficult to determine any trends in these third tier states because they have been surveyed so infrequently. Pollsters who assumed John McCain might win these states by large margins may want to reconsider where they make their next phone calls.

Bill Clinton won 376 electoral votes in 1996 (+8.5% popular vote margin). Obama's electoral strength is reaching heights close to those numbers.  Real Clear Politics' national average gives Obama a 7.4% advantage today,  nearly equal to our latest electoral college projection.

Note to Republicans: Minnesota Isn't Poachable

It seems that every couple years Republicans make a big play late for Minnesota. While the state is much different than the state that voted for the Democratic nominee in 1980, 1984, and 1988, despite anemic nationwide results in those years; the state still has a slight, but significant Democratic lean. George Bush made a big play for the state in both 2000 and 2004, but lost the state by 2 (he was aided by a Nader candidacy that drained 5% off of Gore's total) and 4 points respectively.

In 2006, when vulnerable Democratic Senator Mark Dayton announced his retirement, Republicans were drooling at what they thought would be an easy pickup with the allegedly up and coming Republican Congressman Mark Kennedy. However, the DSCC and Amy Klobuchar went on the air early and defined the race; and she won the race by 20 points and won all but eight of Minnesota's counties.

But going into 2008, Republicans held out hope for the Gopher State, and even decided to hold their convention and the Twin Cities. But as history has shown, Minnesota is quickly becoming a less expensive version of New Jersey for Republicans. As recently as Thursday, McCain’s advisors were citing Minnesota as one of the states they were hoping to poach since Michigan is no longer an option.

Polling has been all over the map in the state, but the heralded Star-Tribune poll (good rule of thumb: When polls are divergent, trust the pollster who polls the state in question with regularity) was released over the weekend showing both Barack Obama and Al Franken opening up significant leads of double digits for both candidates.

Obama leads McCain 55-37% (up from 45-45% early in September in this poll), and Franken has opened up a 43-34% lead (with the independent in the race polling at 18%), a 13 point swing from the last poll that had Brooklyn born Norm Coleman up by four points. Despite McCain vastly outspending Obama in the state, Obama has been able to open up the lead mainly on the back of economic concerns, whereas Franken’s lead in this poll is mainly attributed (by the proprietors of this poll) to attrition of the ad war currently going on in the state (the Minnesota Senate race is the nastiest and the most personal race in the country at the moment). One thing to watch in that Senate race is the number of the independent candidate, Dean Barkley, who is currently polling at 18% and is climbing. If that trend continues, who will he take votes from and if he collapses (as many independents do as election day approaches) who will his votes flow to?

While these poll numbers look good (though this poll has been accused as having a slight Democratic lean), don’t be complacent and help Barack Obama and Al Franken keep Minnesota blue.

September Job Report: 159,000 Jobs Lost

From the Washington Post this morning:

"Employers slashed payrolls by 159,000 in September, the most in more than five years, a worrisome sign that the economy is hurtling toward a deep recession."

"The 159,000 jobs lost in September were the most since March 2003, when the labor market was still struggling to get back on its feet after being knocked down by the 2001 recession.

Job losses were widespread last month.

Manufacturers cut 51,000 jobs, construction companies axed 35,000 jobs, retailers got rid of 40,000 positions, business services shed 27,000 and financial services slashed 17,000 positions, with securities and investment firms accounting for 8,000 of those reductions. Leisure and hospitality companies also reduced employment by 17,000. That overwhelmed employment gains by the government, in education, health and elsewhere."

Total jobs lost in 2008:  760,000.

Electoral Update - McCain On the Brink of Disaster

John McCain's surge is over. In fact, the opposite effect is taking place.  For the second straight week, John McCain has lost electoral ground. Last week, we moved Virginia from the McCain column to tossup, and this week we're doing the same for North Carolina. Obama's numbers have held very steady for 10 weeks straight, and he now leads John McCain 273-217.  Besides North Carolina (15), Ohio (20) and Virginia (13) are also too close to call. Ohio and Virginia, as promised, will remain as tossups until one candidate gains a clear advantage.

George Bush won North Carolina by more than 12 points in 2000 and 2004, despite John Edwards running as veep on the Democratic ticket. Regardless of this year's outcome, a double-digit win here by either candidate is unlikely. 

It's hard to tell who's coattailing who, but Barack Obama and Kay Hagan both lead their Republican opponents in the latest Rasmussen polling. Both candidates will put a lot of effort into the triangle region and the northeast area of the state where Democrats generally fair well. Read today's analysis of Wake County by PPP.

But Obama will need to do more than just fair well to win.  He will need to best Kerry's performance in 2004 in Mecklenburg/Charlotte (Kerry 52% Bush 48%) and Chatham County where John Kerry beat George Bush by only 5 votes (12,897 - 12,892). While polls show the race as a dead heat, a strong turnout on election day for Democrats could be the leading headline on November 5th.

 

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Last week's electoral projection made mention of a possible John McCain surprise.

"The last time McCain needed a jolt to his campaign, he shocked everyone with Palin. If at some point, the campaign begins to slip away, he may just pull another fast one."

And here we have it. McCain's call to suspend his campaign has everyone wondering whether or not he will attend tonight's debate. In light of  gridlock on bailout, McCain's Hail-Mary, and next Thursday's vice presidential debate, we'll ask a some related questions today and then answer them in next Friday's projection.

1. Will John McCain's appearance (or no-show) in Oxford tonight be a moment of demise or reinvigoration for his campaign?

2. The expectations to perform well are high for Barack Obama. Can he live up to them in the debate.

3. Many people are hoping that a deal on the bailout will be made by Sunday. Will Republicans be able to catch McCain's Hail-Mary pass? Will poll numbers next week show confidence in McCain's role in whatever decisions are made, or will voters see his decisions this week as razzle dazzle, as Chris Matthews put it. Will McCain alienate himself from the conservative base?

4. For more than three weeks, the nation has been captivated by moose hunting mama, Sarah Palin. The expectations haven't been much lower than they are for Palin going into next week's vice presidential debate. Will the viewing audience be left with the impression that Biden was too tough on her? Will the debate even matter?

As always, a week is a lifetime in presidential politics. Just last week, we were talking about how the political landscape was shaping up to look like 2000 and 2004.  This week, when you consider NC and VA as both being tossups, that doesn't seem at all to be the case. 

With just 38 days left until election day, John McCain is on the brink of disaster. Any further setbacks are sure to cost him in places like Ohio, Nevada, and Florida. For him, next week could be the most important week of his political life. For Obama, the opportunity to round another base is at hand, and sliding into home plate on November 4th is shaping up to be more possible now than ever. 

Quote of the Day

Congressman Barney Frank, on John Sidney McCain III's suspension of his campaign, via MSNBC:

"It's the longest Hail Mary pass in the history of either football or Marys."