- More than 130 million people voted yesterday, at least eight million more than in 2004.
- Obama won 66% of the 18-29 year-old vote, compared to Kerry winning 54%.
- Virginia and Indiana both turned blue for the first time since 1964.
- Candidates spent $5.3 billion during the Campaign 2008 season!
Showing posts with label Indiana. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Indiana. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Record Breaking Election
This data will be refined in the coming days. So far, here's what we know.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Electoral Projection: Tightening the Vice
John McCain hasn't found the game changer he's been looking for. For McCain, game changers probably don't exist unless you count Sarah Palin. One could argue that she changed the course of McCain's campaign from the very beginning. McCain's sinking ship has been on the wrong course from the very moment he chose Palin as his running mate. When all is said and done, historians might look at the Palin pick as one of those rare moments when the veep pick actually did matter.Over the last few weeks, we've witnessed very little change in polling. What small gains there may have been for John McCain have now evaporated (see dead cat bounce). Regular national polls and daily trackers are all now starting to come together for the first time. All of them have the race close to or at double digits. State polling continues to favor Obama as well.
From our last projection, John McCain loses 14 electoral votes while Barack Obama's score remains unchanged. Polls in North Dakota and Indiana put the race at a dead heat. As a result, both states shift from leans McCain to tossup this week. Voters in North Dakota have been surveyed just three times in October. Obama has led in two of those polls while one other shows the race a tie. Polls back home in Indiana show a close race although Obama has led in three of the last four.
Although we're not adding any states to Obama's total, he has strengthened his lead in these states: New Mexico, Minnesota and Maine. As a result, these states move from leans Obama to solid Obama. We now show Obama with a solid lead in all of the Kerry/Gore states (264 electoral votes).
McCain's sole route to 270 now runs through Pennsylvania. For him to win there, it will take even more than a game changer. Something along the lines of divine order may be McCain's only hope. The latest polls in the Keystone state show Obama gripping a double digit lead.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Obama Outperforming Kerry in Key NC & IN Districts
Monday, August 18, 2008
Then There Were Three?
The New York Times is reporting, what most of us have deducted over the past couple weeks, that Senator Obama's decision on a Vice President is imminent and has "virtually decided," whom the pick will be. They also report that the decision likely to come as early as Wednesday morning and that the list has been narrowed down to three: Senators Evan Bayh and Joe Biden as well as Governor Tim Kaine.
This is not particularly news, other than the fact that names like Kathleen Sebelius and Sam Nunn seems to have taken a backseat to the aforementioned trio. So before all of our cell phones buzz Wednesday morning (or whenever the announcement is sent via text message to all us political junkies), I wanted to briefly talk about these three choices and their potential upsides and drawbacks (especially those not talked about by the media).
Evan Bayh.
The Good: Photogenic, Experienced in multiple offices, well liked by the conservative wing of the party; yet palatable to most of the party, puts Indiana even more in play (the Hoosier State has been a fixation of the Obama campaign), strong and early supporter of Hillary Clinton. Geography: Could put the upper Midwest in the bag for Obama
The Not-so-good: Likely forfeits a Senate seat, has a reputation for being bland, and picking him would look extremely safe and political in nature.
A few questions: Is picking a son of a legendary U.S. Senator the best way to present your message of change? Is he a better candidate on paper than in practice? Is geographical balance still important? If so, how will an all Midwest ticket play?
Bottom-line: Bayh is the "safest" pick for Obama, yet still very attractive. The imagery of a young running mate would make a great photo-op. I still ultimately don't think Obama risks a Senate seat (nor do I think Bayh is Obama's top choice for the job) and the charges of being too safe in his selection.
Joe Biden.
The Good: Well-liked, a great debater and attack dog, strong foreign policy credentials, has a moderate profile, and is somewhat well-known and nationally vetted. Could help with Catholics and could put his birth state of Pennsylvania in the bank.
Not-so-good: His Mouth, Delaware is already safely in the Democratic column, questions about health, his position on Iraq.
A few questions: Can Obama claim to be an agent of change while putting a thirty-six year Senator on the ticket? He's 65 years old and had two brain aneurysms over twenty years ago. Could the Biden-Iraq partition plan be a liability? Does he make Obama seem small by comparison a la Lloyd Bentsen? Would picking him be a subtle signal that Obama is not over-sensitive to racial remarks?
Bottom Line: Biden, while he could contradict Obama's message of change, makes perfect sense as a running mate. During the primaries he was a happy warrior against Rudy Giulani and other Republicans. Yes, his mouth is problematic, but could make things lively and would bring even more energy to the ticket. Could be the compromise candidate for Obama between head (Bayh) and heart (Kaine).
Tim Kaine.
The Good: Fits perfectly with Obama's message, Governor of key swing state (Virginia), Helps with Catholics and religious voters, energetic, and has perfect chemistry with Obama. Would provide a great photo-op.
The Not-so-good: Vulnerable to accusations of inexperience, forfeits Governorship to a Republican for 12 months, not a favorite among women's groups and labor, while popular he is no Mark Warner.
Questions: Is Denver going to be too Virginia centric with Mark Warner keynoting? Kaine's electoral win in Virginia was based more in Richmond/No. Va. rather than Warner's rural strategy and does he help that much in VA in light of that? Was he too accessible the last month? I can't imagine all those leaks and interviews made Team Chicago too happy...
The Bottom Line: He is clearly, politics aside, Obama's preferred governing partner (they share a similar history, Kaine was an early backer of his, and their message is largely the same). But in light of the events in Eastern Europe and some slight poll tightening will Obama pick a more tested running mate like Biden or Bayh?
Biden and Kaine seem more likely right now than Bayh (though myself and Stephen Moody are looking for good recipe books just in case...) or a dark horse. I don't know who he picks, but I definitely feel it is either Biden or Kaine. But I'll be impatiently waiting by my phone in the meantime...
But remember as William Goldman said, "No one knows anything," and I think we all remember this (though in retrospect it might not have been the worst idea in the world):
This is not particularly news, other than the fact that names like Kathleen Sebelius and Sam Nunn seems to have taken a backseat to the aforementioned trio. So before all of our cell phones buzz Wednesday morning (or whenever the announcement is sent via text message to all us political junkies), I wanted to briefly talk about these three choices and their potential upsides and drawbacks (especially those not talked about by the media).
Evan Bayh.
The Good: Photogenic, Experienced in multiple offices, well liked by the conservative wing of the party; yet palatable to most of the party, puts Indiana even more in play (the Hoosier State has been a fixation of the Obama campaign), strong and early supporter of Hillary Clinton. Geography: Could put the upper Midwest in the bag for Obama
The Not-so-good: Likely forfeits a Senate seat, has a reputation for being bland, and picking him would look extremely safe and political in nature.
A few questions: Is picking a son of a legendary U.S. Senator the best way to present your message of change? Is he a better candidate on paper than in practice? Is geographical balance still important? If so, how will an all Midwest ticket play?
Bottom-line: Bayh is the "safest" pick for Obama, yet still very attractive. The imagery of a young running mate would make a great photo-op. I still ultimately don't think Obama risks a Senate seat (nor do I think Bayh is Obama's top choice for the job) and the charges of being too safe in his selection.
Joe Biden.
The Good: Well-liked, a great debater and attack dog, strong foreign policy credentials, has a moderate profile, and is somewhat well-known and nationally vetted. Could help with Catholics and could put his birth state of Pennsylvania in the bank.
Not-so-good: His Mouth, Delaware is already safely in the Democratic column, questions about health, his position on Iraq.
A few questions: Can Obama claim to be an agent of change while putting a thirty-six year Senator on the ticket? He's 65 years old and had two brain aneurysms over twenty years ago. Could the Biden-Iraq partition plan be a liability? Does he make Obama seem small by comparison a la Lloyd Bentsen? Would picking him be a subtle signal that Obama is not over-sensitive to racial remarks?
Bottom Line: Biden, while he could contradict Obama's message of change, makes perfect sense as a running mate. During the primaries he was a happy warrior against Rudy Giulani and other Republicans. Yes, his mouth is problematic, but could make things lively and would bring even more energy to the ticket. Could be the compromise candidate for Obama between head (Bayh) and heart (Kaine).
Tim Kaine.
The Good: Fits perfectly with Obama's message, Governor of key swing state (Virginia), Helps with Catholics and religious voters, energetic, and has perfect chemistry with Obama. Would provide a great photo-op.
The Not-so-good: Vulnerable to accusations of inexperience, forfeits Governorship to a Republican for 12 months, not a favorite among women's groups and labor, while popular he is no Mark Warner.
Questions: Is Denver going to be too Virginia centric with Mark Warner keynoting? Kaine's electoral win in Virginia was based more in Richmond/No. Va. rather than Warner's rural strategy and does he help that much in VA in light of that? Was he too accessible the last month? I can't imagine all those leaks and interviews made Team Chicago too happy...
The Bottom Line: He is clearly, politics aside, Obama's preferred governing partner (they share a similar history, Kaine was an early backer of his, and their message is largely the same). But in light of the events in Eastern Europe and some slight poll tightening will Obama pick a more tested running mate like Biden or Bayh?
Biden and Kaine seem more likely right now than Bayh (though myself and Stephen Moody are looking for good recipe books just in case...) or a dark horse. I don't know who he picks, but I definitely feel it is either Biden or Kaine. But I'll be impatiently waiting by my phone in the meantime...
But remember as William Goldman said, "No one knows anything," and I think we all remember this (though in retrospect it might not have been the worst idea in the world):
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Veep Speculation At Fever Pitch (again)
Speculation about who will be Obama's choice for VP is reaching a a new level of frenzy again, fueled by his campaign schedule over the next two days.
It seems that Senator Obama will be campaigning with Evan Bayh (D-IN) tomorrow in Elkhart, IN. The press have been told that the Obama entourage will remain in Indiana until Wednesday evening, although there are no official campaign events (yet) scheduled for Wednesday. Naturally, this has led to much musing on various blogs (and among the chattering classes on cable TV) that Obama will announce Bayh as his Vice-Presidential choice tomorrow in Bayh's home state. We shall see.
I've noted here several times that I think Bayh is an unlikely choice since the Senate Democrats would lose a seat if the Obama-Bayh ticket wins. (Indiana's Governor Daniels is a Republican who would surely appoint a fellow Republican to fill Bayh's seat.)
Just in case, I like my crow with salt and pepper.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
