Florida 2010: Martinez In Deep Trouble

Republican Senator Mel Martinez woke up this morning to some bad news. He's in deep trouble according to a Quinnipiac poll released this morning. Just 43% of Floridians approve of the job Martinez is doing and only 36% say they would vote for him if the election were held today. 

Charlie Crist's approval rating remains high (68%) although just 50% of Floridians today say they would vote for him if the election were held today.

New Polls: Obama Cruising In Battlegrounds

Leading amongst both women and men, whites and independents, Barack Obama continues to lead by large margins in four key battlegrounds according to a Quinnipiac press release this morning.  The entire press release including polling internals can be viewed here.

BATTLEGROUND RESULTS (conducted October 8-12)

COLORADO      Obama 52     McCain 43     (O+9)
MICHIGAN      Obama 54     McCain 38     (O+16)
MINNESTOA     Obama 51     McCain 40     (O+11)
WISCONSIN     Obama 54     McCain 37     (O+17)

Quinnipiac's Peter Brown:
“Sen. Obama’s leads in these four battleground states are as large as they have been the entire campaign. Those margins may be insurmountable barring a reversal that has never been seen before in the modern era in which polling monitors public opinion throughout the campaign.” 

“The only possible bright spot for Sen. McCain – and you would need Mary Poppins to find it in these numbers – is that he is holding roughly the same portion of the Republican vote. But McCain’s support among independent voters, a group he says are key to winning the White House, has collapsed.”

“Any realistic chance of McCain coming from behind depends on scoring a knockout in this week’s last debate. But given that he has been judged by the electorate to have lost both of the previous face-offs, that would seem to be a very tall order.”

“Obama’s surge comes from voters saying by wide margins that he better understands the economy. Moreover, about that many more say McCain has not shown effective leadership on the economy than has done so.”

WOMEN

COLORADO      Obama 54     McCain 38     (O+16)
MICHIGAN      Obama 60     McCain 32     (O+28)
MINNESOTA     Obama 57     McCain 34     (O+23)
WISCONSIN     Obama 59     McCain 33     (O+26)

MEN

COLORADO      Obama 49     McCain 47     (O+2)
MICHIGAN      Obama 48     McCain 44     (O+4)
MINNESTOA     Obama 46     McCain 46     (Even)
WISCONSIN     Obama 49     McCain 41     (O+8)

WHITE VOTERS

COLORADO      Obama 48     McCain 47     (O+1)
MICHIGAN      Obama 48     McCain 43     (O+5)
MINNESTOA     Obama 49     McCain 43     (O+6)
WISCONSIN     Obama 52     McCain 39     (O+13)

INDEPENDENTS

COLORADO      Obama 51     McCain 40     (O+11)
MICHIGAN      Obama 52     McCain 35     (O+17)
MINNESTOA     Obama 51     McCain 38     (O+13)
WISCONSIN     Obama 52     McCain 36     (O+16)

Fresh Off the Press: Quinnipiac Battleground Polls

Quinnipiac has just released polling data from four battleground states: Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin. The entire 26 page press release includes more analysis and internals and can be found on the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute's home page.

Some analysis from the poll.

"By 19 – 24 point margins, voters in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin say Democrat Barack Obama, not Republican John McCain, is the candidate of change, helping lift Sen. Obama into the lead in these battleground states, according to four simultaneous Quinnipiac University polls of likely voters in these battleground states, conducted in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com and released today."

COLORADO: Obama 49 – McCain 45

"Obama leads 55 – 40 percent among Colorado women likely voters, while men back McCain 49 – 42 percent. White voters back McCain 51 – 44 percent as Hispanic voters go with Obama 68 – 26 percent. Obama and McCain are tied 48 – 48 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old, while voters 35 to 54 back Obama 52 – 42 percent. Voters over 55 go 47 percent with McCain and 46 percent with Obama.

Obama will bring change, 46 percent of voters say, while 22 percent say McCain will bring change and 26 percent say neither candidate will bring change.

But by a 49 – 42 percent margin, voters would rather see Biden as President. Women pick Biden 52 – 37 percent while men go 46 percent to Palin and 45 percent Biden.

In the U.S. Senate race, U.S. Rep. Mark Udall, the Democrat, leads Republican Robert Schaffer 48 – 40 percent, compared to a 44 – 44 percent tie July 24."

MICHIGAN: Obama 48 - McCain 44

"Michigan women voters back Obama 52 – 40 percent, while men back McCain 49 – 44 percent. White voters back McCain 51 – 41 percent, as black voters support Obama 93 – 5 percent. The Democrat leads 51 – 48 percent among voters 18 to 34, and gets 47 percent of voters 35 to 54 to McCain’s 45 percent. Voters over 55 back Obama 49 – 41 percent.

Obama rather than McCain is the candidate of change, voters say 43 – 21 percent.
Palin’s selection is a good choice, voters say 58 – 32 percent, while these same voters say 51 – 30 percent that Biden is a good choice.

By a 47 – 42 percent margin, voters would rather see Biden as President. Women back Biden 50 – 38 percent while men go 47 percent for Palin and 45 percent for Biden.

The economy is the most important issue, 58 percent of Michigan voters say, and Obama understands it better, voters say 50 – 38 percent. McCain understands foreign policy better, voters say 64 – 26 percent.  

'Sen. Obama’s lead in Michigan is built upon two key changes since the last Quinnipiac University poll: He has consolidated the Democratic base to the same degree that Sen. McCain has coalesced the Republican vote, and his lead among those who see the economy as the most important issue has almost doubled, from 50 – 39 percent to 55 – 35 percent,' Brown said."

MINNESOTA: Obama 47 - McCain 45

"Obama leads McCain 49 – 43 percent with women, while men go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama. White voters go with McCain 48 – 44 percent. Voters 18 to 34 years go 51 – 43 percent for Obama. Voters 35 to 54 go 51 – 43 percent for McCain, with the Democrat up 50 – 40 percent among voters over 55.  

Obama rather than McCain is the candidate of change, voters say 43 – 24 percent.
Palin is a good choice, voters say 56 – 35 percent and Biden is a good choice, these voters say 52 – 31 percent. They would rather see Biden step up as President, voters say 50 – 41 percent, including women 49 – 39 percent and men 50 – 43 percent.

The economy is the biggest issue, 55 percent of voters say. Voters tie 45 – 45 percent on who better understands the economy, but say 66 – 24 percent that McCain understands foreign policy better.

In the Minnesota U.S. Senate race, Republican incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman tops Democrat Al Franken 49 – 42 percent, compared to 53 – 38 percent July 24.

'Sen. John McCain is within striking distance in Minnesota for two reasons: Republicans held their convention in the state and the selection of Gov. Sarah Palin brought a new wave of independent women to the GOP ticket, offsetting a big swing by independent men to Obama,' said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

'Al Franken now trails Sen. Norman Coleman by seven points, down from 15, mainly because Democratic support for Coleman has dropped eight points from 19 points in the last poll.'"

WISCONSIN: Obama 49 - McCain 42

Wisconsin women voters back Obama 53 – 37 percent while men back McCain 48 – 45 percent. Obama leads 55 – 38 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 47 – 44 percent among voters 35 to 54 years old and 49 – 43 percent among voters over 55.

Obama rather than McCain is the candidate of change, voters say 45 – 22 percent.

Palin is a good choice, voters say 57 – 33 percent and Biden is a good choice, voters say 47 – 33 percent. Voters prefer Biden as President 46 – 42 percent. Women prefer Biden 47 – 37 percent while men back Palin by a narrow 46 – 44 percent.

The economy is the biggest issue, 51 percent say, and Obama understands it better, voters say 47 – 40 percent. McCain understands foreign policy better, voters say 65 – 23 percent. 

New Polls: Obama Leading in FL, OH, PA

Those of us who follow polls on a daily basis are just now recovering from emotional shock after Monday's disastrous Gallup flop.  To help expedite our recovery, Quinnipiac has just released a group of new polls for a few key states.

Florida:  

Obama 46  McCain 44

Ohio:  

Obama 46 McCain 44

Pennsylvania:  

Obama 49  McCain 42

It's difficult to put stock into these numbers however.  Quinnipiac is calling McCain's latest numbers a surge despite Florida and Ohio netting him just 2% over last month.

"'The $64,000 question is whether Sen. John McCain's surge is a result of Sen. Obama's much-publicized Middle Eastern and European trip, or just a coincidence that it occurred while Sen. Obama was abroad,' said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute." 

"'While Obama was on tour, trying to show voters he could handle world affairs, voters were home trying to fill their gas tanks,' Brown added."

Obama was just three days into his foreign tour when Quinnipiac began polling (July 23).  The miniature gains by McCain in this latest round of polling are unlikely the result of a "surge" of sudden support.  Put your checkbook down Mr. Brown, I'll take the $64K in cash. 

CNN's Political Ticker producer, Alexander Mooney, couldn't resist the urge to present this story as some spectacular theatre.

"But in what could be a warning sign for Obama as voters begin to turn their attention to the general election race, Obama's lead appears to have dwindled, or barely remained steady, in all three states..."

Warning sign?  Nothing has changed.  Florida and Ohio have been close all summer.  There was virtually no lead for McCain to narrow in the first place.  As for Pennsylvania, a Strategic Vision (Republican) poll released just yesterday shows Obama leading by nine.  Mr. Mooney apparently didn't get the memo.

Last week, Quinnipiac also showed a 15% swing for John McCain in Minnesota, narrowing Obama's lead to just 2% in less than a month.  Quinnipiac's Minnesota number is so far distant from other polling groups (including their own data from the month before) that it's almost certain to be a statistical outlier.  See also Colorado.

There's no shortage of reporters who desperately want a horse race, and you'll be hard pressed to find a surge in anything these days unless you're looking for a growing number of miscalculated blunders by professional pollsters. 

Tomorrow:  Friday's Electoral Projection.